I can't reply to private messages. I only have the basic membership Sorry.
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I hope that's the case. Considering it will bring even more good news (updated warrant count, updated cash position), it would be a crying shame if they wait until Friday after the close, only to allow the impact to dissipate over the weekend.
If the warrants are close to gone, the increase in cash from that alone will be considerable (in the range of an additional $12M).
Institutional ownership just keeps climbing every day as the Q2 numbers continue to roll in, latest reported number now up to 7.85M shares
Institutional Ownership
Good to see the PEIX production margin move from $1.037 on Aug 1st to just shy of $1.20 at $1.198 today. I suspect it'll climb a bit more, as Cal ethanol price moves seem to lag moves by CBOT. The CBOT Sept price gained a full $0.10 today.
From DTN:
"Aggressive gains quickly developed through the ethanol futures market with traders focusing on the drop in ethanol supplies last week reported in the latest EIA data. Corn markets remained stable with little activity developing across the complex."
From PFL:
"Ethanol however, more than doubled those gains, jumping 4.8%, even as production rebounded by 29,000 barrels per day, to an estimated 931,000 daily rate. Despite the uptick in output, stocks still declined by half a million barrels, prompting the rally in the futures."
Ethanol . . .
Sept Ethanol
More 'tutes: While it looks like about half of previous holders still have to file, the current number of shares held is now up to 6.83M, indicating another large increase in institutional holders occurred during Q2
Institutional Holdings
We won't know the final count until the end of the week/early next week but it looks like the institutional investors continued to pile aboard during Q2.
Blackrock alone(including Barclay's Global Investors) added some 685,000 shares.
Institutional Holdings
They stated 1.6M remained at the time of the release of the earnings PR.
Since quarter-end, we also raised approximately $19.7 million from the exercise of warrants, leaving us with warrants outstanding to purchase only 1.6 million shares of common stock.
Earnings PR
We will quite likely get a further update on the count the day the actual 10-Q is released.
Selling off proven assets much like Tullow's model would make sense to me. Keep the real jewels that are easy to get to market and sell off the ones that are going to take time and suck up a lot of cash in the process. It worked well for Tullow until deep water drilling costs got out of hand and they hit a few dusters in a row. Now they're recalibrating to get out of deep water exploration and focus on on-land plays.
When the smoke all cleared, this week's production margin gained half a cent over last week. Good news considering that by Wednesday it was down almost 2 cents.
The irony was not lost on me. Jan 15 calls are the choice for me. Not a whole lot of premium on the deep in the money calls.
So, according to the earnings press release, 2.5M warrants were exercised from July 1 - 29th. 1.6M remained. As there were 20 market days in that period, that's a rate of 130,000/day. If that rate continued, it would take another 13 trading days to clear out the rest. That's a week from today.
As the warrant holders are limited as to how many shares they can hold, that translates into a lot of selling pressure that's going to be gone in another 5 trading days.
Perhaps, but as PEIX doesn't dry their distillers grains, the impact is not nearly the same as midwestern operations. Plus the overall price drop in July alone should make a bounce a non-issue.
nat gas
Not only is corn down, but ethanol is up again. I had some concern earlier this week about the margin declining, but now it looks like it will at least hold steady, if not gain slightly over last week.
They did. One again, it's explained in the 10-Q.
Maybe someone will dig into that. Seems to be lots of info available if someone wants to google and look into it.
From the little bit I read, I do know the NOL's don't expire for 20 years, and that how much can be applied in a year is limited by Section 382, but they still get to use them within the restrictions set out. Other than that, as I said, "when it comes to tax laws, especially US tax laws, I'm the wrong person to ask."
Personally I'm just going to use the 30-40% guidance they suggested going forward. Besides, without seeing a breakdown of the tax calculation, I don't even know if they applied a portion of the NOL's to this quarter or not. Perhaps there will be some more insight once the 10-Q is out.
My understanding is that the transition of PE Holdco to a C-Corporation on April 1st triggered a Section 382 change. However, when it comes to tax laws, especially US tax laws, I'm the wrong person to ask.
What types of transactions can trigger Section 382?
Tax Season Lesson #8: Identifying When Your Corporate NOL May Be Useless
Because they can't? I'm sure they would if they could.
(edit) Ok this is interesting. In the earnings PR, the reported cash balances are
"Cash of $25.9 million at June 30, 2014 and $48.0 million at July 29, 2014"
In the conference call, it was stated that subsequent cash was mostly due to warrant exercises. It was also stated an additional 2.5M warrants had been exercised subsequent to the end of Q2
So $48 - $26 = $22M
$22M / 2.5M warrants = $8.80/warrant.
The average exercise value of the remaining warrants should be around $7.80 (most of the less expensive warrants were exercised first, driving up the average value of the remaining ones).
Appears very likely there hasn't been any subsequent inducements.
That's pretty much how I see it too. That average must of been closer to 110,000 a day in July, and despite that PEIX has more than held it's own. Once that anchor is gone . . .
That all leads to another question: What happens to the $22.76M outstanding liability recorded on the books against the warrants when they're all exercised, and how does that impact the books?
If all the warrants are exercised at their full value (no more inducements) that leads to approx $32M in revenue. I'm not sure how any FVA will reconcile the warrant fair value liability still showing on the balance sheet, but the elimination of the warrant liability itself and realization of revenue from their exercise can only be positive.
Could be, they definitely want to see them gone. The deal in Q2 saw 638,000 exercised with only $883,000 realized in revenue. While we don't know the exact details, at an average revenue of $1.38/warrant, that translates into the equivalent of a lot of cashless exercises.
See page 16: Subsequent events
BTW that also appears to be where my FVA estimate was off. I posted a question (back in early July I think) asking if anyone knew how that exercise would be handled in terms of the approx $4M in unrealized value. No one had any input, so I made the assumption that the unrealized value of those exercised warrants would not be assessed against the warrant fair value June 30th balance. It appears it was (my estimate was out by approx the same amount). Had I included that value, I would of been pretty much on the mark). I'll know for sure when the actual 10-Q comes out.
Obviously they don't think that way, or they wouldn't of exercised 2.5M in July.
I think a big part of it is the restrictions that impede exercising and selling as long as they continue to hold warrants. They are not allowed to accumulate more than 9.99% ownership, so it's not like they can exercise them and keep the shares. I suspect their thinking is they've made an incredible profit (the warrants were pretty much free, and are now worth $10+ each). Were a disaster to hit (say a plant blows up) all that money is gone. There were still 4.1M warrants outstanding as of June 30th. They exercised and pocketed $25M in pure profit in July. While others might hold on to the remaining warrants come hell or high water, I suspect they see the remaining $16M in the bank as a very good thing (all pre-tax numbers, of course).
That or the warrant holders are continuing to exercise and sell off. According to the numbers in the ER release, they must of sold 2.5M off in the month of July. That's a lot of pressure. If they are continuing that pace in August, it will continue to keep a lid on things until they're all gone. The good news would be that at that pace, the remaining 1.6M should all be gone before the end of the month.
I took the time to transcribe the part of the Kodak CC that addressed Uni-Pixel. It starts at 9:10
"Another area of growth opportunity, is our start-up functional printing business. Within this business we are focused on developing two technologies, with our partners Uni-Pixel and Kingsbury. I’d like to provide you with an update on both of these technologies, beginning with Uni-Pixel. Over the last several months, we’ve largely transitioned from lab scale, to pilot and production processes. Our technical focus has been on finding robust product and process configurations for each individual production step, and on understanding the interaction effects on upstream and downstream processes. We now have printing, plating, testing and finishing processes running in Rochester, and we’re at the early stages of end to end integration of full production scale operations. Our earlier development activities on fundamental technical elements provide a solid base to address process issues which arise at production scale. For printing, catalytic ink formulation and substrate, details are now locked for initial production. Regarding yield, we’re now focused on customer performance criteria, including electrical continuity and optical performance. On a week to week basis, we have been seeing improving yield performance on key criteria, and are now working to establish regular, repeatable performance to the full roll to roll process for all criteria."
Kodak Conference Call
From the Kodak earnings PR (4th paragraph)
“In cooperation with our partners UniPixel and Kingsbury, we have made significant progress toward bringing our functional printing products into commercial production."
Kodak Earnings PR
Clearly Kodak is more than still onboard. The UNXL call tomorrow could prove very interesting.
ACE President About Ethanol Industry
there are lots of reasons to excited about the ethanol industry right now.
U.S. corn prices are forecast to fall 10 percent in 2014/15, after a 35-percent decline in 2013/14, also based on a large U.S. corn crop forecast and competition from other exporters like Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine.
Current USDA forecasts
Not sure if or how this might throw another log on the railroad jam in the Eastern and Midwest US, but ... Ottawa orders CN and CP to move more grain to clear logjams
Could it potentially continue to fuel the US situation and translate into higher west coast ethanol prices and more fuel for PEIX?
(edited) Regardless of whether the claim an experimental treatment was used pans out, one outcome from all of this might be mounting pressure to fund Ebola research. This article out of London could prove to be the tip of the iceberg. I'm surprised he didn't also pick up on the thread that the "experimental serum" wasn't used until US citizens came down with Ebola.
UK health offical speaks out
Edit: Yes, I saw that possible explanation at the end of your post. The only conflict is that the explanation states "If Writebol did receive such an immune serum, it would almost certainly have to have been created at the site of the outbreak." The Samaritan's Purse story claims the "serum" was flown in.
Who knows? With the only source to date that anything was actually given being the Samaritan's Purse, it could turn out that nothing was actually given.
I would tend to agree that whatever "serum" is involved, the odds that Inovio is involved is a long shot at best. I should clarify that my original post was more in response to the whole question of whether an experimental treatment would ever even be considered in a situation like this. That said, how many other possibilities are out there that are far enough along to be even considered a possibility?
The post had no link to the NBC Nightline statement, however the claim about Brantly subsequently receiving the treatment after Writebol is on the Samaritan's Purse website:
“An experimental serum arrived in the country, but there was only enough for one person. Dr. Brantly asked that it be given to Nancy Writebol,” Graham said. Later, Dr. Brantly was able to receive a dose of the serum as well.
Samaritan's Purse story
The claim that Writebol received it is wider spread, but all leads back to the Samaritan's Purse claim
NBC News
Tekmira has since issued a statement that the treatment involved was not theirs
Tekmira response
Not that it ultimately matters whether Brantly subsequently received it or if only Writebol did, but rather, if either or both of them did, then whose treatment is it?
Sorry I didn't include a link to the original post on the IV website, but it apparently violates IH policy to link to other posting boards. I've had posts deleted in the past for that, so I don't do it any more.
Tricky to test, but by the looks, someone's holding a potential winning lottery ticket. This post (as well the the next several that follow it up) is from the IV Tekmira board.
Re: On Samaritan's Purse's website: Kent Brantly received dose of experimental serum prior to leaving Liberia NBC Nightly News just confirmed that he received the "Experimental Serum".
Whomever's "experimental serum" is involved could be on the brink of major publicity. Whether that's ultimately good or bad remains to be seen . . .
I've never regretted taking profit those times I have, so much as not taking profit those times I should have.
But hey, who knew that on one of the worst overall market days in a while, it would suddenly wake up to the fact that you will no longer have a warrant fair value once you no longer have warrants, and that with 1.6M left to go, that day is near at hand. I too thought the price would take a little longer to sort that out, or I would of staked out a new call position much quicker than I did.
Reverse splits can do funny things to stock charts. I don't have a knowledge of all the events dating back to 2006, but there are places to look. One good place to begin to find information on past history is in the company filings, either through EDGAR or the archive on the company website. Search the document for the term "shares" and I think you'll find what the share price range actually was as of March 31st of 2006.
10-K filed April 14, 2006
That will give you enough information to compare the market cap, instead of share price.
Someone made a gutsy move today with that 500 contract purchase of $30 Oct calls @ $0.10
One of the reasons I can use that strategy is because I'm trading in a Canadian tax-free account. I can keep withdrawing profits without any tax ramifications. Plus being north of the border, there's none of those pesky US day-trader rules that give every advantage to the big players and penalize Joe Six-pack.