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Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Morgan Stanley out positive
- Morgan Stanley is out positive on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) saying co's operating leverage remains underappreciated by investors and is the main driver of firm's increased earnings forecast and price target.
MSCO believes Apple's operating margin will continue to improve from two factors:
1) Apple's operating expenses grow at 1/2 the rate of revenues. If this relationship holds going forward, every $1bn of incremental CY08 revenue drives 30 bps operating margin; and
2) Product sold through Apple's retail stores earns as much as 14 points incremental profit. All else equal, a 5 point increase in the mix of revenues through Apple stores adds 50 bps operating margin.
Firm's CY08 operating margin increases to 19.8% (from 16.7%) and CY08 EPS shifts to $5 (from $4.29). They continue to believe earnings and stock revisions are heavily weighted to the upside and think that even $7 in EPS may be doable in CY08. New tgt stands at $150. Maintains Overweight.
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/
Word on SI is that Morgan Stanley raised AAPL target
from 110 to 150 and Schwab downgrades. Can I get confirmation here?:)
Shanghai down 6% on the day. EOM
Did anyone notice
The all time high close today?
Just wondering.
Another day
Another few bucks. Ms. Roni is real happy with her portfolio's performance, which has been better than mine.
Here is to an interesting time in AAPL; the next
couple of weeks in the short term.
couple quarters in the intermediate term
couple of years in the slightly longer term.
This is going to be fun, I suspect.
The iPhone keeps its cool secret
Gadget lust - No matter what Apple's latest trick is finally capable of, many will want one for the mystique
iPhone article with interview with Cingular negotiator
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/business/1180241703295990.xml&coll=....
iPhone wants
Was at a party for a two year old today. A friend, a HP engineer now a strategic planning kind of guy, he is getting an iPhone as soon as his Verizon contract is over in August.
Pick the iPhone date
June 11
overdue correction
Could happen, but the key questions are when, how much, how fast, what sectors get hit the worst?
With the exception of Apple, I am pretty much out of US equities in our self-managed accounts.
Overdue correction or continued climbing a wall of worry? I dunno, but a lot of the April inflow from tax-related retirement account deposits is done.
There will also be the generational flow of money from the markets to baby-boom retirees starting and then accelerating over the next decade or two.
All grist for the mill dilleet, and I appreciate your gristy posts here.
Bootz, the AAPL calls are up about 14% combined today, recovering from yesterdays losses and then some, I think
But I think
It Wants More
Quack quack quack
Just got back from meetings and lunch.
Nice day, eh?
Closed the June 105 puts for a 18% gain. EOM.
From Appleinsider
Mac maker Apple Inc. saw retail sales of Mac units grow a solid 62 percent year-over-year for the month of April, which included a 94 percent spike in notebook sales thanks to solid MacBook and MacBook Pro momentum, as well as increased distribution.
According to NPD data cited by UBS Investment Research analyst Ben Reitzes on Wednesday, U.S. PC unit growth for the month of April grew 14 percent overall, include a 19 percent rise in retail sales and a 30 percent surge in notebook sales.
"Checks for Macs have been solid, backing our 25 percent unit growth estimate for [the company's fiscal third quarter] which should also see support from recently updated MacBooks," the analyst wrote in a one-page memo to clients.
Reitzes added that iPod sales were down 3 percent for the month of April, but noted the "difficult compare" to the year-ago period in which iPod unit sales were up 33 percent.
"While below the 19 percent (9.6 million units) we are modelling for [the] fiscal third quarter, [the NPD] data doesn’t include international sales which could help support growth," he wrote. "We also believe new products later in the year should drive future improvement."
Portuguese word for gold is Ouro. EOM.
This is a little table I found on AppleInsider. It claims to be the change in share price in response to various product introductions / annoucements and was provided in support of Gene Munster's prediction that AAPL will rise in response to WWDC and the iPhone launch instead of being sold on the news.
Here is the relevant matter, quoted from the AppleInsider site:
How will investors react?
In his report to investors on Wednesday, the PiperJaffray analyst also took a detailed look at the closing price of Apple shares before and after launch events such as Macworld and WWDC. He was expecting the maxim "buy on rumors, sell on news" to hold up alongside a pattern where Apple shares were sold-off after the much-hyped events.
"But instead, we found that historically it has been beneficial to own shares of Apple heading into and out of launch events," the analyst explained. "Apple consistently delivers, and investors respond positively."
Specifically, by using the closing price the day before events as a base, Munster found that shares of Apple have risen an average of 1 percent the day of an event, and rise 3 percent in the week after the event. Using the closing price the week before events as a base, shares of Apple have risen 6 percent on average between the week before and the week after an event, he said.
Munster maintains an Outperform rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $140 per share.
Former Fed Chairman fears 'a dramatic contraction' in Chinese stocks
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:03 PM ET May 23, 2007
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks reversed morning gains and fell on Wednesday, after former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday that he feared a "dramatic contraction" in the Chinese stock market.
"It's not a major sell off, but the market has certainly reversed steam here," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan Beck & Co. "We've got light volumes and the market is a little tentative and nervous because of the strong market gains recently."
"Greenspan could be a catalyst for investors to take some profit, but not much more," Suskind said.
According to reports, Greenspan told a teleconference he feared a "dramatic contraction" in Chinese stocks, event hough global growth wouldn't necessarily be derailed by the move.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-turn-lower-after/story.aspx?guid=%7BB5055DA4%2DA076%....
A little excitement around here???
I am fine with the current level of excitement. I did add some June $105 puts to the stable this morning at $.55, so to recap Apple holdings:
AAPL shares
Jan 100 calls
Jan 120 calls
June 105 puts
The iGasm
http://blogs.business2.com/apple/2007/05/apple_v_igasm.html
interesting product....
Looks like another day of deja vu all over again
Up over $114 in pre-market. Portfolio up to 40% AAPL again on appreciation and addition of Jan 120 calls on May 17 - calls that are up 23% since that time.
Check your Costco store
Appleinsider: Apple TV pilot at Costco
Around the same time that AppleInsider reported on plans for Target retail stores to begin carrying Apple TV, the folks over at Ars noted that the $299 streaming media device had also cropped up at select Costco wholesale clubs.
AppleInsider has since learned, through a tipster, that only around 50 Costco locations are currently carrying the device. Those locations are said to be part of a pilot program aimed at testing sales of the device in the non-traditional Apple atmosphere.
Should the pilot show signs of success, its likely to see expansion to Costco's more than 375 U.S. locations, the tipster added. As part of the pilot, the wholesaler is pushing the Apple set-top-boxes for $289, about $10 under Apple's suggested manufacturers retail price.
Those readers looking to adopt an Apple TV for even less coin may also have some luck at Apple's online store, where other tipsters have noted that the company is selling refurbished Apple TV's for only $249, while supplies last.
Apple has said that it will leverage its proven capability in the area of software development to gradually add new software features and applications to Apple TV over time.
tomm, I don't think
we're going to get day by day reports in any event :), so you can have the under, no problem.
Bootz, ugly
I don't know about ugly, but I think I'm gonna hedge my long position - maybe with some July puts
How many iPhones
Will be ordered in the 24 hours of availability. My guess is that over 1 million will be ordered in the first 24 hours of availability - maybe over gazillion .
<how much AAPL seems to depend on the iPhone (at least in the media).>
Yeah, makes you wonder about a sell on the news phenomena. My AAPL stake is back up to about 40% of our IRA's. Bought Jan calls a month ago that are up over 100%. Thinking about lightening up some, but.....
Do have some cash available to go heavier *laugh* It is moves like this one that can pay the bills for quite a while. Gonna put in some stop order on the shares and let them run or be taken out.
From an article (URL at bottom for the full article). I liked the part I bolded near the end of the quoted material :).
It says a lot about this industry that Steve Jobs can generate hype by claiming the "killer app" on the iPhone is "making calls". The iPhone will never be the same runaway success that the 3210 was, but then again, that's not its stated ambition.
However, the product has a refreshing sense of purpose in the current climate of aimless exuberance. It brings with it the one of the cornerstones of the iPod's success: do a few useful things really well.
Not everyone agrees the iPhone will be as successful as Jobs hopes, but Apple does seem to make the perfect bogeyman for the mobile phone industry. What could be more scary than an organisation capable of working in total secrecy, with a track record of creating highly desirable products, headed by a man who's beaten cancer and an SEC investigation and comes equipped with a Reality Distortion Field that would make Darth Vader jealous.
Frankly, its just what the doctor ordered for this very sick industry.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/05/22/mobile_phones_lose_users/
My old 19" Trinitron CRT at the office is plenty sharp to see that
My Jan 100 and Jan 120 AAPL calls are doing very well. Underlying doing pretty well too, and golds are firming up.
Tis spring when.....
Used to be a quarry
Get your red-hot romance languages here :)
Latin stuff
I was talking to a Brazilian friend the other day who had to fill out a form that included ethnicity. Marcio said to me:
Ron, I have a question to ask you. Should I have checked the Hispanic box?
I said:
Of course not, Brazilians are not Hispanic, we are Lusitano. Marcio smiled and said "Exactly."
Call Brazilians latin americans if you wish to, but most will take exception to being called hispanic.
Roberto Carlos
Roberto was around way before the 70's :), I remember him as a kid in the 60's living in Brasil
Even made it to the lyrics of the song É Uma Brasa (roughly translates to It's a gas, or it's hot- brasa literally is a hot burning coal/ember)
Roberto Carlos na TV
Pelé na selecão
A Claudia Cardinale com o alemão
É uma brasa
Yeah, Blake's posts are often difficult for me to understand also :).
Not surprisingly, I agree w/ Frank to a large degree. Our fund portfolios are overweight international equities.
Our stock portfolio is overweight precious metal miners and Apple. By my reckoning AAPL is about a 15 bagger since the spring of 2003 - enough, I'd guess, to cover the currency conversion issue.
Canadian companies I hold include Yamana, Kimber, Minefinders, Aurizon, Goldcorp, and Glencairn.
Those are my good ideas for this year: international funds, Apple and precious metal miners. So far the results have been more than pretty good. We'll see what the rest of the year brings. I made a pretty good trade with Denison this spring, but uranium scares me here :).
Wait, those were my good ideas for last year too, and the year before that and so on going back to 2003, when I first bought a PM miner.
Help for Blake: Suggestions please!
If you did not buy AAPL back when I first suggested it.
I have no advice now.
Except to buy AAPL and forget about the exchange rate, with some of your money.
iResist
We asked 597 subscribers via e-mail, “Do you plan to buy the iPhone when it’s released?” 52 percent said no, 21 percent answered yes, and the remaining 27 percent replied maybe.
This is remarkable. If one-fourth of those who say they're going to buy when released actually buy within a year of release, its gonna be huge, dudes and dudettes.
That is assuming they did a competent job of randomly selecting their sample etc....
Freaking huge.
The man you call Trader Ron was too stupid
To hold the 400 shares he bought at $14 in April, 2003.
Blue, JisJ, and all the other folks who have been holding since a long time ago - they get the big Ta-da Beholds!!
A round of applause to them!!!
Sold enough Jan 08 $100 calls to cover the cost of those I kept - bought @ 10., sold at $17.50.
Sold 3/4 of the trading shares I bought the afternoon before earnings. Bought at ~ 94.30 sold at 107.37.
Still holding core shares and the remaining calls.
I have shares, this round of them,
At an average cost of 93.10 - closed at 109.36
Jan. 08 $100 calls at a cost of $10 - closed at 19.30
I may end up selling enough of the calls to cover the cost of those I keep. These are all in and IRA, so tax considerations...not a concern.
I am pleased with the spring.
<<... the latest Barron's 500 survey, a unique ranking of U.S. and Canadian companies based on cash-flow returns on investment.
This year top honors go to investment-banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS), last year's runner-up, which nabbed a perfect grade of 4.0, nosing out No. 2-ranked Franklin Resources (BEN). The mutual-fund firm also earned a 4.0 but received a lower grade in one of the key measures by which the companies are ranked. The bronze went to Apple (AAPL) while Terex (TEX), a maker of cranes and giant trucks, took fourth place, and Paccar (PCAR), another truck maker, fifth...>>
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=23537758
What a delightful week!!
What a delightful couple of weeks. It is runs like this, in AAPL and other stocks that can bring a smile to an investor's face. Combine that with morning coffee sitting in a comfortable leather chair in our harbour view room in Victoria, British Columbia and this is why we work, to enjoy days and mornings like this.
Have wonderful weekends!! We're off to the greater Vancouver area after a stop at Butchart Gardens