Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229110208000000000005.pdf
Actually, they still use the $337M, disputing the $347 as the correct amount stating that "the debtors motion to reconsider remains pending"
In any case they don't care as they expect the payout to be zero.
Agreed. Looks like still class 21.
no real change. Cannot find anything about $347M.
Also, note that they stripped the offereing from the PIERS security to be involved in equity in the newco. Instead claiming it was debt and not just for "accredited investors". Where many thought they would agree to let in those on the "newco" so as not to treat holders of the same class differently they left them all off.
My guess is that we will se some sort of news release next week. Jax has mentioned that they hope for news releases every 3-4 weeks. Their last two were on Decembe 13, and Jan 11th. That would put one around late this week or early next week.
Hopefully, it will be some financial update. Status/expectiation of when they become current, etc.
My guess is the depression of the Steelers getting whomped will take a few days to get over. GO PACK GO!!
I hadn't even thought of that. It would make sense.
Thanks.
I've long admired these guys. They've done something like 30%/year for over 10 years. Small, simple office in suburban NJ. David Tepper is the head guy who I heard talk when I lived out there. Sometimes you hear somebody who just gets it imo.
He stressed simple things. He wanted binary events not stuff that required two or things to happen to get paid. I don't think its that simple but I came away impressed. Compared to a similar talk from one other hedgie and one guy from a big Wall Street firm who I felt they didn't understand their book, yet they thought they were smarter than you.
Do you know if Appalossa is holding anything other than bonds. Any preferreds?
I enjoy following those guys.
Stock has moved from $.06 which is cash on hand to $.10 on expectation that Celtic will sell Xerecept in late 2011/2012.
However it failed phase III before.
Interesting. Firefly Value is a shareholder on one other stock that I follow. TNFG. Very very illiquid, wide bid/ask.
I contacted him about a week after the last news release wondering if there was going to be a release on the financials. Unfortunately, I never received a reply.
I contacted them to try and get financials. Unfortunately, no response. Please note that that link is to Trenwick America the new part of which we are not involved.
Further digging led me to find out that atleast part of Trenwick America is in receivership/rehabilitation by the State of New York. My guess is that if they were to try and sell these bonds they will not get face value of $5M.
I hope but I am not so optimistic.
Personally, I don't think they will do a R/S.
The Pre 14-C file was an attempt to shake up weak holders who bought into the hype. There seems to be a decent bid support at .035 so my guess is that they may be slowly accumulating more and more. Think about it, if you are them what is the ultimate goal.
1. You do not buy a fully reporting shell with NO DEBT for $60k plus 9,000,000 shares. In addition, buying a fully clean shell for $60k is a) not chump change and b) I've seen other shells sell for $30k that have hundreds of $k in debt and/or non-reporting which costs money to clean up.
2) The cost of getting listed to the AMEX through a normal channel is $400k (i've seen that number around) and I'd guess upwards of $1M-$2M for NYSE or NASDAQ listing. Last, a chinese company is not here to list and sit on the pinks. They want prestige, the pinks do not do that, they want a bigger listing.
3) The round up shares is to make sure they have enough shareholders. I remember a SPAC in 2008 and the warrants were trading at a 60% discount to the shareprice as the stock was $1.00 under the warrant conversion price and it had 2 years to go. These should have been highly probable but guess what. Mr Market is efficient, the company only had 79 shareholders and therefore were in trouble about getting delisted due to having too few shareholders. That report cratered the stock. My guess is these Chinese companies are well aware of this and are sitting and making sure they have several hundred shareholders.
4) steady accumulation at $.035 and not dropping lower means someone is on the other side. As of me typing this 85k shares have traded. The Form that was filed right before Christmas said they had 20 business days IF they filed something. As of today they have not.
In my opinion there might be a reverse split but it still means your investment is the same. But I doubt it will be 1:200. Maybe 1:10 or something like that.
Best of luck to all but I am holding.
Don't be sorry for me.
I'm not my dad and this is a smallish position for me as well. I learned a lot from that in all parts of my life. My dad always looked for the quick buck jumping on whatever is moving, I take a different approach. I also learned the key of having a safety balance for a rainy day fund.
I'm not rich by any means but I've managed through our economic downturn better than many becuase I had some savings. Unfortunately there are many on I-hub (not on this stock) that are constantly chasing the latest news. They'll never win but they won't listen either.
Actually while I would prefer more news I am content with no news. They are still a small company, they really do not have an IR department full of staffers, nor should they.
My guess is that getting financials signed off on are harder than one thinks going in. If you are a private company who is debt free they probably have never had a full audit. An audit for a public company and a first time audit is nerve racking, and a long and painful experience. It gets easier with time but its not just about providing numbers. Its about showing adeequate controls that most private companies have never thought about. My first two years out of school I was a staff auditor for one of the Big 6, now Big 4 so I am dating myself, and audited large public companies. They all had internal audit staff, tons of stated processes and it was still a grind.
In addition, you have to get the shell's financials up to date. I have no idea how they do that. My guess is that it sucks worse as it wasn't your company. Anybody have any thoughts on how they do that. Its all in the details. The only thing stopping me from buying more is I'm trying my best to not have any one speculative holding (and this is without financials) be more than 3% of my portfolio. Yeah, can I see a $1.00 yep but financial measurement is important for me. I struggle with it but I watched my dad lose his business and my family lose our house when I was a kid as he kept doubling down on a losing position.
yep. Watching and waiting...
As of 10:00 this morning nothing in PACER.
Exactly. I have seen bids from the Federal Government, especially parts of the Dept of Defense areas that prefer and give preference to bids that are SDVOSB.
Here is some info on the program from wikipedia.org
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service-Disabled_Veteran-Owned_Small_Business
The United States Government sets aside contract benefits for companies considered as 'Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (SDVOSB.)
The most notable of these contracts is the VETS-GWAC is the result of Executive Order 13360 that is designed to strengthen federal contracting opportunities for SDVO firms. The current VETS contract is for the period from 2 February 2007 through 1 February 2012 with a five-year option. This program has a ceiling of $5 billion. While this money is set aside by the Office of Federal Procurement it is up to the government agencies to provide the contracts, mainly the United States Department of Defense (DoD.)
Background
For a veteran who suffers service-connected disability, the US Government has deemed it its moral obligation to provide the disabled veteran a range of benefits designed to ease the economic and other losses and disadvantages incurred as a consequence of serving his or her country. These benefits include Government assistance for entering the Federal procurement marketplace. To achieve that objective, agencies shall more effectively implement section 15(g) of the Small Business Act (15 U.S.C. 644(g)), which provides that the President must establish a goal of not less than 3 percent for participation by service-disabled veteran owned businesses in Federal contracting, and section 36 of that Act (15 U.S.C. 657f), which gives agency contracting officers the authority to reserve certain procurements for service-disabled veteran-owned businesses.
[edit] Lack of complianceBecause the office setting aside these contracts has no ability to award Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business contracts, the request percentage of such contracts is significantly lower than it should be. A number of memos and orders have been issued to correct this trend.
President George W. Bush issued Executive Order 13360 on October 20, 2004. The Executive Order was issued to strengthen opportunities in Federal contracting for Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business Concerns.
The Administrator of Office of Federal Procurement Policy (OFPP) issued a memo about VETS GWAC, dated July 10, 2007, for chief acquisition officers and senior procurement executives. The memo strongly calls for agency participation in the use of VETS GWAC as a way of meeting the top priority of increasing opportunities for small businesses owned and controlled by service-disabled veterans.
Exactly, this feels like one of those inefficient market times. Buying before Friday's POR seemed insane to me from a risk/reward standpoint.
Reading through the full POR my take is without us the POR had a good chance of being confirmed. Think about it this way. Investing on Friday at $.65 and let's use MadClowns end point as the scenario.
Last week at $.60 you had to worry about the POR, which was not small and your max upside was 300% and downside was 0. For us invested at that time we felt the odds were better than 4:1.
Today, you can buy at $.80 and the POR concern is gone. Upside is now 200% and I cannot see how this worth $0 anymore. This seems to be an asymetric bet.
I now have to go sell some other holdings as I just talked myself into increasing my position, not to 100% but something more.
I thought they weren't even going to get audit lined up until January. Assuming they are using a decent auditor it would take three months at a minimum. With the Thanksgiving holiday and the Christmas holidays I would expect the process to take longer.
When I worked with external auditors for a Fortune 100 company it took them weeks to audit books where we had clear processes and things did not change. Nowadays, auditors can be liable for items they missed in the financials. My guess in dealing with private compnaies is that as a private company these guys did not follow GAAP and instead followed cash accounting rules as those basically match tax rules. This probably would not take that long, but then you have to test transactions, etc.
Finally, then you have to review the processes to ensure that you cannot(minimize) fraud. This is ususually the bigger issue with private companies. Controls generally are minimal as it costs time and money and you don't really think about it. Where I work currently we bought a company last year that has over 500 employees; does $200M+ in sales annually, tons of Federal and State regulation (has to file finacials in Every state they do business and go through a review board) and guess how they managed their books. Quickbooks. Period. They had a personal quickbooks account which everyone used the same password, etc. They had no audit abilities. Why is this important. Lets say a person in Accounts Payable schedules a check to be paid to Xerox for $10k for whatever reason. Someone goes in and changes the name to someone else.
My gut tells me we do not see audit results until March or April. I expect a news release in January, maybe a little bigger than the one from before and the stock spikes for a few days and then we drift down as we still are not closer to audited financials. The question to each investor is what is your time worth? Do you have other potential investments that you could deploy the money to?
I am surprised at the movement of the stock today. I know to buy when people are afraid and my gut tells me to buy. I just cannot figure out why its not higher.
Right now my gut is telling me to go 100% all in on this. Tell me why not?
I just assume all my investments are worthless. I only log into my account once a month unless I am buying or selling. to cut down on my stupidity to chase, my wife is the only one who knows our password now so I can't chase. I have to run it through her.
(Only our IRAs) - I have a trading account that she knows nothing about.
I would agree. I am surprised they do not have an auditor currently. I thought they did. An auditor worth his salt is going to take some time, especially with the new year.
I would also agree that they probably have minimal debt outside of some trade debt.
Phone system: My guess is Nice as Cisco is probably too costly. Who is it?
I agree with much that has been written but most of the time when one does a R/M they want 80-90% of the shares. The new owners would only have effectively 60% of the shares unless they have been buying much of the stock over the last 3 months.
Thoughts?
So someone who does not focum on the QAMUQ board. Is this good for them or bad? My assumption has always been that the more likely the recovery for us the worse it is for them.
Therefore, this would appear to be bad news for them, correct?
or are you stating that this questions the rest of the deal and every line is going to be picked apart. If so, that could be bad for us as it will take even longer for final resolution, no?
I doubt it would get above $.50 today without any merger announcement.
Bid/Ask is moving apart.
Bid is still sitting in the .16-.18 range but the ask is at .24 with a little bit and the next ask is at .48. I'm sure more will show up but the MMs are probably wondering what the hell is going on.
I've hit the ask twice and they just move it up. When I have gotten a fill its been only a couple of thousand shares. I'm patient and I'll hold for $1.00
Gotcha.
Is there any way the commons get anything?
I believe the only thing with any assets is Trenwick American Reinsurance Co (where the $5M in loans is sitting). What happens and I doubt it but they sell Trenwick American ReIn for a positive book value of $10M. LSRAF would get their $5M loan plus interest back over 3M shares and lets say $2. Who would get the $10M of positive book value once it was sold.
Would that flow to LSRAF holders as they are preferred or does it go to the Trenwick common. I need a map of who rolls up to whom.
(Note: I don't think there will be a positive book value otherwise the business would have already been sold.
Where does one see a tender offer for $1.00 per.
There are 3M shares outstanding.
Only potential assets may be $5M @ 100% recovery.
100% recovery would be $5M/3M = $1.66/share.
How does someone get $3.
Yep. listened for a while. Had to drop and came back on.
Some strong positives were made but there was a point where the judge seemed to be pretty swayed that the LTW accepted two forms of risk
1) risk of winning the case in court - which they did
and
2) risk of being paid in equity. They seemed to hit a nerve showing that they was also equity return. Somewhat equated to a true-up or floor. Basically saying the DIMEQ holders will take stock but if equity falls out we want cash instead but if equity rises we get to particpate in the upside there as well.
Listening to the case gives you a very different take than just reading the motions. Before I felt very confident, now less so based on the judges questions. I do think we get to the next stage however.
That said if there are 400 hospitals x 450/month. lets assume the NH Medicare thing is right, and average usage is 60-70 minutes a month @ $3.00 minute that give us annual revenue of $8,000/unit/year.
Thats revenues of $3.2M.
Current price is $.16 x 8.4M shares float = $1.7M market cap. That means we are looking at P/R at .5.
Seems cheap to me. If you assume a 10% profit margin which I would say is fair you would have profits of $320k x 15 times = Mkt Cap should be $4.5M.
I may buy a nibble and wait for some numbers.
I really appreciate the post ElisComing.
While DT is mentioned on page 20 the better page is page where it states a monthly rental fee of $450/hour plus $3/minute for usage.
I think this ties to the bid sheet posted of which the bid was for $1,600 for 4 units or $400/unit/month.
I think that is the better realistic viewpoint. Talking to two different hospital administrators they told me this is a competitive business/field. One told me that the last time they bid it, at a different hospital than where she is today they received over 10 bids back. She did not tell me who they selected.
She thought the business was ripe for consolidation which is why these guys may have gone public.
Full Disclosure: No position but watching. Not my style of investment but best of luck to those who do.
Maybe I am missing something with this one regarding potential outcomes.
Looking at the most recent 10k it appears that they are doing better but they still have a way to get out of this. When their deposits are earning 4% paying to borrow at 8.25% in this environment is suicide so I understand why they would want to retire these. I also can see where current holders would want a return of partial capital instead of worrying about a return on capital.
Looking at PCBC the holders there received 20% on the dollar but that does not seem to be the main investment opportunity. Wasn't/Isn't the opportunity in PCBC the availability to buy common stock near $.20 after the warrants were exercised(which is now) or even waiting until after a RM is one thinks the stock is going to get hammered after a RM like many do. (This is my opinion - I had a nice gain in YRCW lost after shorts hammered the RM purely on the reason of a RM.
Did Trust holders get to buy warrants @ $.20 or something else in PCBC that I am missing? I guess I don't see the upside at this current juncture to purchase FBS-A when its sitting in a 20-40% recovery range.
Also, do you have any idea why they are only asking these holders (Capital Trust IV) and not of Capital Trust I (9.25% due 2027), Capital Trust II (10.24% due 2030) and Trust III (9% due 2031)? I would expect them to try and extinguish all of these if possible.
EI-
followed you over here. So if I have it right they are offering the right to propose a buyout of some sort for holders of FBS-A. The devil is in the details of at what % and when. For a bank to be paying 8.5% I can understand why they want to eliminate this. Any idea on what its worth. I've tried to figure out where they pay for their dividend payment as they should be able to reduce their costs considerably at this lower interest rate environment but I have no idea on what they will offer to preffered holders.
Wait a second. Fidelity had my shares and I got a letter saying I needed to call them. Luckily they were so kind and I got the mail a day before it was due.
I called them and voted on which plan I wanted. Was there a part about if we would tender our shares or not? I was not aware of that. I was expecting that would come later if the Heartland plan was approved.
Part of the run to .10 was me. I bought 5k shares as I've been trying to get a starting position filled for a few days as I'm working on my DD.
I better go check my account and make sure it was not to fill at market and limit. Whew. I'm 5k of the shares at $.10. Got impatient. Any tips for buying such an illiquid security other than hitting the ask?
Tronox - I'm out.
I trimmed 25% of my position when we hit .50, then I sold another 25% yesterday at .80 and unloaded the rest today at .70 and .72 as I felt lost.
I have no idea of what fair value is now. Could it be $1 or $2 or way more? Sure, but you don't go broke taking profits.
Anybody else doing some trimming?
Between this and some other stocks that have run recently I am now 40% in cash. Highest I have been in a while.
Only reason I looked at it was that I saw enterprising investor was on there.
Saw a few of the same names that were pumping that other item on the board (kruse or whatever it was). I guess a sucker is born everyday.
Jax-
Thanks for that. I looked at the link since I am new here and have started to go throught the files. Being fairly new to penny land I am going to watch this stock to see how the pump and dump works.
Wife is going to be pissed as I sit and read these motions tonight but who cares. Learning experience for me.
Basically, he linked to a file that states the previous proposal that was submitted for vote. Equity shareholders did not get a vote as we were getting no value on the backside and without an Equity Committee noone to fight for us.
This file said the the previous proposal was approved by several classes such as unsequered creditors and class 5 (title?) - Equity was class 4 - that were both above and below us and they took haircuts as well. because of that he approved the plan as is and equity gets nothing.
That said its been dead money for a while. Strange thing is why they walked (TOPS) from a $150M NOL. I have no idea how to value it but there is some value there for them to just leave behind.
All in all, not surprising at this time.
Chevy -
Sorry about that typo in my last email. it should have stated that I have NO knowledge on these properties other than basic searches and I called a CRE pro I knew down in SanDiego.
Basically, does not like current mgmt but has no idea if empty space is leasable at decent prices like some are thinking. He's watching small companies that don't really have a strong location nexus churn and burn for considerable lease savings.
I would normally agree. and in the long term I would hope that its worth more than $.35/share. But I am thinking about what would happen immediately with the remaining shares.
For me I am looking at this as more of a quick hitter. I don't want to end up holding 45% of my shares hoping it would get back to .35 or higher.
Personally, I am not optomistic about the CRE market in general but I have specific knowledge on these properties specifially as I sit in my chair in Wisconsin.