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I bought some soon after myself. Balls yes, brains not so much (at the time he he).
Quick question Senor BTH: I know you have your dream of being a rancher somewhere (is it Tahoe?), but have you given any thought to what your investment could POSSIBLY be a worth in, let's say, 3 years?
I have said all along that I wouyld be looking for the door on the majority of my holdings when Pona makes it's way to approval. However, now I am considering a longer hold due to the potential of 113. Curious as to your opinion.
Some decent volume in the May 7,8,9,10 calls today according to Ameritrade. 460 -$10 May calls traded (9 days till expiration).
Blade,
How are you pal? Been a while since we chatted about the little bio that could.
Just had a chance to listen to today's cc. At about the 21:20 mark, para-phrasing the Harv:
"We are reaching the decision to most likely commercialize pona in Europe ourselves. We have not made the final decision just yet"
The Harv's got the ball and he's gonna run with it. BTH is right.
Now if the over-all market could just keep from imploding for another year or so, things will get real interesting around here.
Good article in the Smithsonian on Dr. who helped develop Gleevec. Nice plug for Pona towards the end. (not sure if posted here on Ihub yet. Enjoy: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/A-Victory-in-the-War-Against-Cancer.html
What confounds me is that Al Mann is one of the most prolific investors/entrepreneurs in the history of biotech. He has poured his own money into Mannkind/Afrezza hand over fist, so I am assuming he truly believes in the product. Perhaps in the old guard FDA, Afrezza gets the nod. In this environment, Tylenol would be a 50/50. Maybe the BV heavy hitters could shed some light.
Biomaven thanks for the great summary. I might be naive, but I have been wondering for a while why it has taken so long for Ariad to get the 113 trial started. Is it a financing issue, or is this a standard timeline for this type of drug? Would a large pharma have been able to push it through any quicker?
Also, I would think that with all of the developments for Rida and Pona sitting right in front of us, very little value has been assigned to such a young 113 at the current pps.
I might have to re-think my timeline for my position.
They need a catalyst. So if I am reading this right, it will come right after some BS bashing article by some idiot. That has been the mechanism they use as an in roads to get the ball rolling.
Investors of some of the other bio's that have had their brains beat in believe that the authors are in bed with the short sellers. I don't.
Sppi is def appropriate for the board. I think I first read about Sppi/Dr. Raj here, so I know a little something about the management. I am referring to today's opportunistic entry and planned exit as a trade.
After all, this is the Biotech Values board and SPPI may not qualify as such. This board has some of the most knowledgeable bio investors out there. But there is more than one way to skin a cat and this was an opportunity to take advantage of a market over-reaction IMO. Like I told Dew, I am looking for a point/point and a half at most.
Thanks for the feedback
BTW, I may be a homer but I believe that Ariad deserves some serious consideration even at this level. The 1 bil market cap scares some here, but that 1 bil is going to be 2 bil fairly soon IMO.
I'm back, had to feed my boy. I guess it is debatable whether or not you buy their explanation for the quarter sales decline. However, from a current valuation perspective, I think the pps is a little cheap. They claimed to have 144+ mil in cash and hardly any debt. They now have 2 approved drugs (all be it not home runs). They booked 44 mil in revenue for the quarter and, by today's close, are selling for 450 mil market cap/375 mil enterprise value.
Do I like this as a long term value? No, but to drop almost 30% after the approval was over done, IMO (even if the pps was too high prior to the approval).
It may not be a value, but as a trade, I think it was well worth a shot. I may be guilty of choosing the wrong forum for this type of play.
Nope, just buying pressure on the stock. I think $10-$11 is certainly reasonable if the overall market doesn't collapse.
The SA Teva buyout article was silly, as is it's author.
They had a reasonable explanation for the Zev sales decline on the CC, IMO. They also said Zev sales in April were 3 mil already. I think the sell-off was over done. Let's see if it gets a bid in coming weeks
I'm guessing you missed the other 10 or so posts when we were laughing about the headline .16 miss. Yes I was kidding (hence the wink)
Yeh Barry, but they missed earnings by .16 that's a lot! ;)
Does this press release warrant some upgrades by the sell side imbeciles after the CC tomorrow?
We needed a little breather and we will be back running again soon enough. Healthy corrections (which you don't like the idea of) are critical for a substantial run w/o a major technical crash.
I may have not rang the bell at the top, but I made money and that's the name of the game.
Perspective young grasshopper, perspective.
Look at the Briefing.com headline: Ariad misses by .16
I have 10k Ziop for sale in AH at a very respectable price if anyone is interested.
Tell you what, if they sell this off tomorrow (to around $7.50 or so), I might just have a fire sale and free up cash to buy a little more. Pona 1 year ahead???? That's phenomenal news.
Who has the juicy in the money calls tee'd up? The 1/12 $4's were a beauty before the last big run up.
I like that hypothesis. I think it might be an attempt at damage control. If the market has another day like today tomorrow, that $7.50 re-test will be likely
PGS
BTH happens to be correct. This may be SOP for other companies you own, but it is not SOP for Ariad.
Thanks to you both for the great analysis. I feel like I am watching a tennis match. I will be looking for the fire exit. They might just pull a Harvey Berger and dilute tomorrow after the close.
Dew
Can you tell me if Ken Frazier gave the classic mouth open, one eye wink when he said they planned to file the Rida NDA? lol
Good luck with that. I will be waiting at $5+ to sell you my shares so you can cover.
I take it you have not viewed the presentation and slides posted here.
Hey Yo (Yo is one of the original YMB posters)
I don't know, it's up to you. That's the whole game. These crashes are pretty steep. Sppi went from $10.50 to low $8's on Friday. Neop went to $4.10 today.
Keep in mind that I have WAY TOO MUCH ARIAD COMMON ALREADY. So for me, I would think a GTC around $6.50 - $7 would be enough of a discount for me to sit on it and feel I got a bargain. If I happen to be at my PC and I can get some lower, I would.
I hate to sound like chicken little, but these friggin raids are happening all the time now. It's really pathetic that this is allowed to go on. I just wanted to forewarn any Aria longs that may not know about what these filthy animals on wall street are permitted to do.
I hear you, but the window of opportunity you will have in one of these flash crashes is small. Today, I looked at my Ameritrade command center. Saw the price down to $4.10. EDIT: Said oh s#@t, this is a bear raid! Looked quick to see if there was any catastrophic news out on Neop. Then hit a market order (which I hate). By the time it filled it was around $4.30. All this in the span of a minute. Today, I got lucky.
Good luck with that one pal. After all this time holding, you would have to have cojones like grapefruits to sell your core position in the midst of what you perceive to be a flash crash in the hope of buying back lower.
You are a better man than I if you pull that one off. I would just prefer to add to my position, sell the old ones when it pops and hold the new ones for at least another year when the real fireworks start around here.
All I had time for today was to add heavily to my Neop position. Thanks you effin crooks!
Can you believe this garbage. Neop announces positive lymphoseek results after hours. The flash crash/bear raid took it down to 4.10, now it's at 5.10. This is getting ridiculous now. There might be a very good opportunity to grab Aria at a great price if you are quick enough or guess right on a low gtc buy order.
They are happening all the time now. Not going to feel good when it happens here. I am starting to think that putting in a low-ball bid is a good idea.
Neop just had a bear raid. When is ours?
I don't know about that. He's holding thru binary events. You don't get much more home runish than that.
Thanks Dew. I wanted to, but didn't get the chance to listen to the Mrk CC. I am assuming that no one on the Aria board did either otherwise you would have the champagne bottles popping from wherever it is you live. ;)
It did successfully. You would like it to re-test $7.50. You may just get your wish.
Yeh I am aware of Pantginis, I am pretty sure he was the lead table pounder on TNFerade (GNVC UGH!).
Btw, the firm I was referring to was Argus. If you recall, in another classic wall street sleaze bag move, Argus announced a down grade of Aria right around the time of the LLY loss announcement. All of a sudden huge (500k) bids started popping up like wildfire.
Only one problem with that down grade, I DON'T EVER RECALL ARGUS INITIATING AN OPINION OF ARIA! Take a wild guess who is Argus' biggest client. Bing! FMR. Sometimes this game is so rigged it is pathetic.
Remember those stop losses. Sppi had a mini raid on Friday thanks to a BS Fuerstein article. With the volatility in this stock, we are bound to get one along the way. It is only when and not if IMO.
BTH, did you sell any Cris? Nice haircut thanks to a downgrade from Rothe Capital. What a effin joke. Where they the ones who downgraded Aria so Fidelity could load up back around $3.50?
prob counting on the 25 mil for rida nda
After reading your response, I have to chuckle at Kirk's view of Palifosfamide as a "rounding error".
Amrn:
$14.50 was where I said I would re-enter when I sold my position on 4/18. So it is kind of stuck in my head. I agree that it may very well have been fairly valued at $17 where I sold out.
Aria:
I know you were a skeptic due to Mrk's lack of pounding the table on Rida after the Succeed results. Are you looking to the follow through data (good or bad) as a potential entry?
Regards, Joe
I reduced my position by 1/2. Move over, think I'll sit around with the rest and see how things develop.
BTW, I think Amrn is getting attractive again IMO. The intra-day low on the day it popped was around the mid $14's. I think that's where I will look to wet my beak again.
GL
Mcb
Impressive move by Ziop the last couple of days since the SA article on insider buys. What do you think?
Ya know bud, if I didn't know any better, I'd swear you just gave the Harvemeister general an atta boy.
I would imagine we can expect lots of low volume shenanigans till our next catalyst. Take a look at Jazz today. It dropped down $10 at the open. Now it's only down a buck for the day. Watch those stop losses, you might get humped by a quick bear raid.
That's the best Mrk can do with 5 billion? Sorry, but I have to agree with BTH. Mrk sucks.
What does your chart say about 1 year from now. That's when I will be looking to lighten the load. :)