Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
PLSB - up significantly since I announced the 'firesale' ... I hold enough shares so, unfortunately, I did not take advantage myself.... but glad to see the recovery!
INO - sold traders @ .90, bought back @ .82 .. now .97!
I actually bought more warrants yesterday. I'm fully re-loaded ...
I'm sure you are thinking the same thing that -- in the long term -- the low volume is a good thing as we are getting in ahead of the crowd!
Incidentally, I really liked that spreadsheet forecast you had shared a long while back ... has it been updated recently? I actually had some questions about some of the specific numbers.
Was it you who mentioned our CEO Eric Hit-it-out-of-the-Parkison?
Anyway, have a good one and thanks again.
"The coffee house just became a coffer house... "
Your creativity is boundless! Thanks for all the commitment here and happy 07/04!
Smoked wild hog!?
Let me put 2 & 2 together ... you hit a pig with your truck while drinking and driving, brought the pig home for dinner, and then made up this whole story about a guy who hit your car in the parking lot with free beer.
Very slick thinking! Happy July 4th!
I guess what I'm trying to say if those two endpoints don't happen, folks will still be discussing whether or not the company is a good investment or not. Some could argue the company totally failed the audit so it is a terrible investment whereas others could argue that company has survived even more years (without dilution) such that there must be some long-term value above a very-low $5M-$10M marketcap ... assuming we continue to have DVDs in Walmart, new releases. etc.
Thus, this roughly summarizes my outlook (of course, it's hard to quantify these things, but just my best guess based on intuition).
50-60% chance we win big - we get an audit or sucessfully implement VODWIZ or both ... I see at least a triple.
20% chance we remain in limbo -- a year from now we still have no audit and no/failed VODWIZ but still have Walmart releases and the "hope" that the company might still have a big release... under this scenario we could be lower but I think the fundmental value would still be more than the previous $5-$10M marketcap (which is why I tripled down the last few months).
10-20% chance we lose big -- company goes bankrupt or toxic dilution and we lose most everything. This seems unlikely in the near-term and also seems unlikely the longer the company remains in business.
Just my opinion, of course, but with all the new eyes on the company ... even if 80% of them sell we still have 20% of them that we did not have at 1 cent ... I see shorter-term (next month) downside as perhaps 1.7 cents... of course, if 6 months from now there is no audit, no VODWIZ, No SEC football or poor sales ... then I would be selling at a huge loss from today's price.
For me the long-term endgame is:
We win: Implement VODWIZ (with sales and partners) or audit ... either one could drive us much higher (although the failure of either would be extremely frustrating).
We lose: significant (toxic) dilution or bankrupcy.
I see #1 as much more likely than #2, so that's why I'm holding long-term.
INO ... sold my traders yesterday at .92 ... bought them back today at .80.
Although we certainly can't expect ourselves to always make the same decisions, thanks for sharing your thoughts ... some tough decisions ahead so its good to know what others are thinking ... people you can trust!
We've certainly had a good run so I can't blame you for selling your traders. I'm still holding most of my traders but I might have otherwise been more aggressive at swing trading if the wash-sale rule was not applicable to my first shares (which were bought above these levels). Also, with all the new eyes, I don't see too much downside in the near-term.
Thanks ... I'll probably eat these words, but I'll go on record that I expect at least another triple from here.
I'll start by first mentioning the negative. The company, which distributes movies, is over a YEAR late meeting their own self-imposed deadline of providing audited financials for uplisting. My opinion only is that with all the other business developments they have not had time and also hit a learning curve in building the reporting systems, etc.
On the plus side, dilution has been insignificant and business is verifiable as I've personally seen their movies and logo at Walmart. More easily verifiable are their movies at Amazon ... Boggy Creek, Toys in the Attic, Deceptz, Turtle the Incredible Journey ... many more.
Upcoming catalysts.
1. Recently obtained a loan from TCA global up to $5Million to fund new movie acquisitions (some have already been announced). Most movies will not be movie theater but direct to video ... their bread and butter.
2. This August they are testing a college football preview DVD for potential expansion to more teams. Will be sold at the local Walmart in August and also promoted locally. (If skeptical, this is legit as they posted photos of the filming...see blog link below.)
3. Movie Zombie Wars to be launched in RedBox in August.
4. Supposedly finalizing production of 'Mother Goose' with A-list actors to be released in theaters. (Details on this one are sketchy).
5. Recently announced partnership with NTEK to build portal to stream movies online via Roku, internet, cellphone, etc. NTEK is actually the only company with the technology to stream 4K format which is the next level up from HDTV (Netflix does not have this technology). Supposedly, the company will be opening this portal (called VODWIZ) to include 1000s of movies from other small/indie studios. Movies will rent for $1.
(Incidentally, I missed out on a 50-bagger when I decided not to invest in NTEK when I first heard about it).
6. Completion of audit which will validate and update the valuation of their nearly 200 film library.
7. Their recent big title 'Toys in the Attic' to soon be released at Walmart ... was unfortunately supposed to be released last January but had issues with their vendor management partner (whatever that means). The CEO's wife adapted this stop-motion animation movie from Czech to English which includes Forest Whittaker as one of the voices.
Take a guess at the marketcap??
When I first mentioned HHSE the market cap was ONLY $5Million. Now it is around $12M ... which I think is still a steal.
The company blog:
http://www.hannoverhousemovies.blogspot.com/
If you have the time to investigate ... very curious what you think... I don't do this professionally so you guys might see some details I missed. HHSE is by far my biggest holding so any input is appreciated.
Wow .... !
The smile on your face paired with that post is priceless!
HHSE (my largest holding) has tripled since mentioned earlier ... still lots of room left ot run but will perhaps roll some of the gains into more yellow warrants.
BRFH ... sold my limited shares on decent gain!
VRSEF still a ways off for FDA catalyst but could be the next to run IF can secure insurance coverage in Canada or Europe.
Not to be greedy, but now also hoping for my damn miners to recover!
I sold 5% more of my overall HHSE again today.
My sells at these levels were planned a long time ago .. now, we are still without the audit despite a higer valuation yet there remains a lot of business potential and postitive momentum. Since I still have many 'trading shares' its going to be much more difficult/interesting decision for me what to do from here!
Fear and Greed - I want to protect the gains but I also don't want to miss out after waiting all these years!
Nonetheless, HHSE is my largest investment by far so I'm not complaining!
JFF - Not as a joke but let me "officially" congratulate you on what is truly a momentous feat!
It is amazing that when I finally bought some it was probably around a 15-20 bagger ... talk about chasing!! (Which I never do, but goes to show you...)
I'm follow your lead and take the occasional look at the OTC-Reports.
Thanks for the sharing with us ... the NTEK story seems far from over so let's see hot it goes!
Great to see some recognition of this extremely under-valued company ... I think it's just a start!
Too busy watching HHSE! ... but I plan to look at it soon.
Thanks! I hadn't checked my Chinese calendar ... it all makes sense now ... lol!!
That's a pretty good trade!
I sold 5% of my HHSE shares today ... of course, dollar-wise my position has grown much more so -- for better or worse -- I see this as an increased allocation.
The probability of bankruptcy or toxic dilution seems low, so the longer-term risk/reward still seems very favorable.
INO - lift-off to new highs!
I spoke too soon ... NTEK up 33%!
Unhappy with those 29% daily gains for NTEK? ... try HHSE!
HHSE ... nice!!
And, yes, still a long way to go!!
Congrats! I got in later but caught a down spike at .028. It was a small position, but not as small anymore!
Perhaps your recent 'concerns' caused some selling thus allowing you to acquire some cheap shares at these prices ... congrats!
PLSB - fire sale! My analysis shows *IF* sales (which lag new store listings by 4-5 months) continue to grow in proportion to reflect the recently acquired listings *AND* new listings continue the trend and grow to the 20K locations by year-end (managment's expectation), then should be a good investment. (If I recall, there are currently 14K listings with about 1-2K monthly growth this year-to-date.)
If recently launched higer-margin Pulse takes off too (above is just Cabana lemonade) or Cabana continues growing in sales next year, then I think we have a multi-bagger from here.
Keep in mind the 20K EOY listing goal seems reasonable as they've been only very recently signed distributing/warehousing in such locations as Florida.
Let me know if anyone interesting in more details.
I agree ... I think, in a nutshell, if sales continue to grow in proportion to listings for Cabana and listings continue to grow this year as planned (both seem very doable) ... we should do well.
If Cabana continues its growth next year and/or Pulse starts doing well, then we will do VERY VERY well!
That $1.2M case sales, expected by October, should be profitable.
As per the Q1 filing the 68% cost of sales should be reduced due to sales efficiencies... say to 65%.
1.2M Cases X $10 per case * 35% (1-65% cost of sales) = $4.2M Gross profit.
The Q1 OPEX of $1.3M, according to mgmt, could be reduced by $500K due to non-cash charges and one-time expenses (product development, GAAP treatment of warrants outstanding). So you have about $800K x 4 = $3.2M Annualized OPEX based on Q1 numbers. I expect this could be higher but Pulse has higher margins, so it could all be a wash.
Once the 20,000 listings drive sales next year, will definately be quite profitable and if Pulse does well, then we should have a very respectable PE for a growth company ...
Of course, please let me know if these numbers make sense!!
One final note, GAAP accounting results in lower EPS as share price goes up as higher share price increases the liklihood of warrants being converted. With the lower shareprice, the GAAP EPS numbers should look better.
Hi Everyone ... Please let me know if I'm understanding correctly:
At the start of the year there were about 7000 chain store listings, given the 4-5 month lag between listing and sales, these listings generated the 52,000 case sales in May 2013.
Currently there are about 14,000 listings. Thus, using the same ratio of sales to listings, monthly sales 4-5 months from now would be about 104,000. 104,000*12 = 1.2M case sales annualized around Sept to October this year.
Thus, annualized sales goal of 1M cases by end of Q2 (starting July) might be slightly aggressive, but who cares if these sales take an extra month or two. This number surely seems within reach... if/when listings get to 20,000 sales next year should be WAY beyond this threshold.
Of course, some listings could drive higher volume than others. This is the wildcard. A large Safeway store would probably sell more than a small convenience store so Safeway (or similar listing) could be driving the expectations. Safeway was secured on April 8th, so perhaps there could be Safeway sales by end of Q2.
All-in-all, sales look to be on track and surely or -- at the very worst -- only a month or two late in reaching expectations.
25% HHSE! Great day and congrats all!!
Very exciting day and I'm more excited about the days to come!
Congrats ... I threw such a small amount at NTEK, it was not worth mentioning ... but I'm up already 50% so better than nothing!
Glad that you must be doing VERY well.
Perhaps some of those NTEK riches will spillover into HHSE ... a lot of folks there must be paying attention.
PLSB -- selling on no news ... my gains are disappearing!
Thanks ... that's quite a statistic.
Just me day-dreaming, but I wish we also knew % of buys that are short-covering. Has all the shorting served to build a huge short position, or has most shorting been temporary ... for instance to push down the price on low-volume and then cover after the price has dropped?
Curious your thoughts ...
Yes, you are right... volume is not low. Perhaps folks think the Sprout PR about 150 stores is weak?
I'm personally much more excited about Safeway (how much bigger can they get!) than Sprout but management seems proud of getting a difficult/prestigious placement which us regular folks might not appreciate.
Low-volume, no news ... just random selling.
Bid in @ .87 .... hope it fills...
INO ... doing very well recently... new SA article.
"Could Upcoming Catalysts Carry On The Epic Year For Inovio? "
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1521512-could-upcoming-catalysts-carry-on-the-epic-year-for-inovio?source=yahoo