is...hopefully making money
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Burp,
Did the IRS documentation come from the freeelectriccar.com as well, or did you have to apply to the IRS for it? TIA
The point is GAAP EPS is the only EPS that will matter if and when they uplist, which is what everyone who was long on this stock was praying for.
The problem that I see with your school of thought is that a lot of the value for this stock is based upon future earnings and, the prospect of an up listing. If the up listing occurs, there will be no choice but to use the GAAP EPS because that is a requirement for any US stock exchange. So now we are looking at the GAAP EPS no matter what, which just had it's legs chopped off.
Even at a multiple of 14 times earnings it is overvalued using GAAP EPS. Today's news was bad....period.
At the present moment my opinion is that this cannot be interperited any way but negatively. Even if you assume that they are doing this in advance of an uplisting, it doesn't change the fact that their GAAP EPS is now around $.05-.06 for the first 3 months of 2009. That means that they are trading at around 15-17 times TTM earnings at a share price of $2.60.
Future may still be bright long term. Short term they are going to be punished for this, IMO. I'm going to do some more DD on this over the weekend and will post anything of substance that I find.
Best of luck to anyone who stays in...but for now I had to jump out. It's a shame. Love the company but hate what they just did to us.
CKGT - The 10Q/A states -
For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, income before income taxes decreased $2,168,537 to $1,929,367 from $4,097,904 for the corresponding period of the prior year. The decrease was primarily due to the $4,236,850 loss from revaluation of financial instruments liabilities in 2009, offset by an increase in gross profit. As a result, net income also decreased $2,509,072 to $902,890 from $3,411,962. Excluding the non-cash loss from revaluation of financial instruments liabilities, net income would have been $5,139,740 in 2009.
I assume this is the GAAP earnings, which for 3 months of 2009 is now only .09. Is that correct? I keep hearing everyone say that this is a non-cash adjustment but what does that mean for GAAP EPS?
StevenRisk - the 10Q/A states -
For the three months ended September 30, 2009, revenues increased by $2,002,712 or 32% to $8,187,397 from $6,184,685, in the corresponding period of the prior year. The increase in revenues was attributable to the fact that, the Company is continuing to expand its productions and distribution, and its products are better accepted by the Chinese market customers. These products include Cactus Protein Nutrient, Cactus Calcium Peptide Soft Capsule and Cactus Shuxin Capsule, among others. In addition, the Company successfully launched two new products, cactus fish feed and cattle feed, in July 2008, which also contributed to the increase in sales.
I assume this is the GAAP earnings, which for 3 months of 2009 is now only .09. Is that how you understand it?
We are going to crush the $3 mark when people are done taking their year end gains. We are already consistently testing the $2.90 mark the week of Christmas.
I hear you, but it is not to late. 2010 is going to be a great year for CKGT and it is still cheap at just over 7x earnings.
And we are off to the races again. New 52 week high!
Let's test that 52 week high again! We all know $3 is coming.
I can see the marketing possibilities now, "Pamper your boobs with cactus!"
$2.50 seems to be an accumulation point. We have tested it a few times and bounced right off of it.
I'm expecting approximately 9.1 million in revenue for Q4 brining 2009 revenue to 27.1 million. This would yield a net income of approximately 7.75-8.25 million or diluted EPS of .39-.41.
For 2010 I have a conservative estimate of 38.6 million in revenue and 46 million on the aggressive side. The difference is contingent upon an introduction of beauty products in 2010, the rate of growth for the animal feed and how well the cigs do. The remaining product lines have had steady growth in the 30% range, and are thus more predictable.
Based upon these estimates and a 28% profit Margin, I put the 2010 ESP between .54-.65
Here is a breakdown of my conservative revenue estimates
Product Revenue Gross Profit Margin
Nutraceuticals 17M 47%
Animal Feed 4.4M 16%
Health & Drink 9.12M 52%
Package Food .2M 31%
Extracts & Powder 6.4M 33%
Cigarettes 1.52M 38%
Beauty Products 0.0M n/a
Here is my disclaimer. If the animal feed or cigarettes are wildly successful or the beauty product line is launched with success, even my aggressive estimates could be considerably low.
They posted a new PowerPoint investor's guide yesterday -
http://www.hawkassociates.com/clients/additional/index.cfm?client_id=23
I'm still waiting to hear back from Susan at Hawk regarding if/when she anticipates a Press Release to discuss the Q3 results, the recent land acquisition, FY 2010 guidance, Hog Feed & Cigarette lines, etc.
Loving the volume. Word is finally out about this stock. I see little pressure on our way to the $3.50 range. $4 is a strong possiblity by the time we get Q4 results or a good press release.
Great movement indeed. I think someone big might be joining us in the action. I feel $3 on the horizon. After Q4 earnings I anticipate being closer to $4. Cheers to everyone who has remained long on this gem.
We defintely rode into Rock Ridge today and worked up a number six on 'em!
A nice run this morning. I am very pleased with how well this stock has tested at the $2 lower boundry. I think that speaks volumes to the fundamental valuation that people are putting on CKGT, most particularly the future earnings potential of the new product lines. I am already mentally gearing up for the Q4 numbers which I think are going to blow us away (again).
If you weigh the positives of CKGT it is quite inspiring -
-New land acquisition will allow for expanded production
-New product lines are ratcheting up revenues in a major way
-Prospect of up listing
-Announcement of health products on the horizon
-And the huge wild card - what the upside will be for the cigarettes
I really hope we see a PR soon. I think everyone is starving for some additional guidance from them. They have so much great stuff going on but so little news about it.
I have not heard back from Susan yet. At this point I am not concerned as it is clear that this is a non-issue.
I just spoke with Susan at Hawk and she informed me that she has already contacted CKGT regarding this but because of the 12 hour time difference she hasn't received a response yet. I will be touching bases with her tomorrow since she expects to have confirmation on the matter by the morning.
It may be the shares from the 8-k starting to hit the market, but I am not certain. Wanted to see if anyone else could weigh in on it.
Does anyone know why we are sliding today?
My guess is with the money they will raise by selling the 2 million shares between now and the middle of 2010.
Thanks StockPicker. I guess the strong dollar is holding the Chinese small caps down today. I was hoping to see the earnings report sooner to counter it.
Does anyone know when they will be reporting earnings?