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you should ask him about your fnma commons and if they get anything at all from this
This sort of outcome is not going to happen. Study the litigation and incentives.
Welcome back to the trade btw with your 500k shares — matching navycmdr there
Good luck. Happy sunday.
Fnma commons arent a party. So nothing for you to calculate.
$0 for you in terms of interest. Why are you so excited about interest when your claim is $0?
Can always count on you to have a clue as to the legal paths.
Legal stuff matters in restructurings
For sport for now. Fair point. Everything is appealable until it isnt.
it doesn't matter. it is pennies. you are focusing on the wrong stuff.. per usual
the only relevant piece now is that fnma preferred may have interest accrue against their damages where fmcc may not.. that's kind of how the current damage model is rolling. but this is all going to get appealed anyway.
and settlement seems viable... if the government ever cares
i dont make the rules, this is the main fanniegate board on ihub. this is just where the main people post that i like to read
Wow exactly 500,000 shares. You have more shares than I do. 200k and 300k. Looks like these are the only investments you have in this account. Hopefully you have other accounts for retirement and a navy pension and everything is paid off and you can live on your income and this is just a gamble.
you own common shares. fannie mae common aren't even part of the class plaintiffs.
You spend a lot of time trying to prove me wrong with misinterpreting legal stuff on your own.
If you really believe your stuff you should ask cooper and kirk — put up money to buy their advice for a few hours and see what they have to say about your analysis
As for my opinion i basically am tired of poking holes in your arguments. Have a good one
yeah. remember the proposed plaintiff solution to the collins case? what are they asking for now? wasn't it to move forward with restructuring recap and release?
i think so.
i think that was the counterfactual argument based on the trump memo, that he would have moved forward with this.. and gotten it done, and so to resolve these claims --- that's the idea.
read the lawsuits and legal filings, i recommend it.
well said, i always appreciate your posts like this. 100%
1 - more deflecting & failure to answer direct questions as why
2 - anyone should listen to yer "opinion" & the results of "your expert" investment advice ...
3 - What is your preferred shares net worth ? I've posted mine many times ...
4 - Your INSOLVENT secure preferred share are "eroded" daily by Hi Interest unpaid LOANS ...
5 - what do you OWN when yer borrowed money LOANS are PAID ?
yeah generally, but i can explain that one away simply by being an unsustainable trajectory.
what mark calabria and mnuchin did with capital retention and sandra thompson is following through with is continuing to grease the skids for exiting conservatorship as eventually adequately capitalized enterprises with private first loss capital.
happy tuesday
congrats, green today so far. wishing the best for you.. been a wild two weeks.
positive vibes, trying to help out, caffeine, ribeye, barbecues, family, strollers, sand, saltwater, running lines to my kite and riding my 11 meter ocean rodeo kite boarding, sunscreen, sunglasses, debit cards, showers, flip flops, lots of conversations with people about fannie and freddie on ihub/twitter/whatsapp/email/seekingalpha/google/etc.
generally just trying to make the most out of every day and trying to help people out, hope this helps.
good for you, i used to post mine, i stopped 2 years ago when the supreme court ruling misinterpreted HERA and dont find that relevant. that said, you claim to have more shares than i do. if you have 500k shares anyway. i just happen to think that my shares are worth more than yours in the eventual restructuring.
to answer your question about why you should listen to my advice... the answer is simple. because what i say aligns with the government's estimates and valuations and because i have followed the court cases closely... and historically anticipated that plaintiffs would win a legal ruling that reverses the net worth sweep --- but moving forward --- i'm not sure if there is much of a legal basis for that when mnuchin told calabria that was illegal
for what it is worth, you continue to focus on my character instead of the actual implications of the words that i am saying.
my general approach is to listen to what they say and let the words speak for themselves
1 - focus ? security ? My over 500K secure Common shares are ALL PAID FOR OWNERSHIP in
2 - two MULTI $TRILLION DOLLAR SOLVENT national mortgage insurance companies -
3 - pretty arrogant "investment advice" coming from an INSOLVENT Miami
4 - BeachBum who tells all others "they" don't know what they are doing ... You "focus" on making excuses,
5 - distracting/deflecting & "rationalize" your total failure at predicting this "so called resturcturing" &
6 - "what you're HEARING from yer ridiculous SHELL PHONE & your freeloader laziness to
7 - GET A JOB & EARN your way thru life ... You post on this board telling others "they" don't know
8 - what they are doing & their investments are worthless as you preach your KNOW IT ALL
9 - "investment advice" & write articles & books yet WHAT HAVE YOU ACHIEVED ?
10 - What is your Preferred acct net worth ? I jus PAID CASH for a 2023 luxury vehicle ...
11 - By comparison your shares are Hight interest "borrowed" money loans - you are BROKE
12 - you don't own a Home you don't own a car you live in a Rented apt & arrogantly
13 - tell others "they" don't know what they are doing ...
It is not that I am better than anyone else, we all have our problems in various dimensions and our weaknesses that make us who we are — it is just that this is my process of thinking and learning, to share my current world view and see if anyone understands things better and if so to adopt their perspective and to encourage others who have not figured it out to look at things from another perspective. I realize that people have a vested interest in not being wrong and that it is hard for people to change their mind. I know because I am stubborn too.
You are focusing on the wrong things. You should focus on the underlying security of the shares— i obviously believe that jps are valuable with such confidence that i have been willing to go above and beyond to get them. You could say i have more conviction in my trade than you do in yours because you do not think it is worth borrowing to buy shares of common
no --- i just check in from time to time. regardless of the price action, but sorry.. hopefully your 500k shares you added are still looking good. not sure where you got in, but this post verdict soaring has mostly reversed. i am optimstic.. overall.. but i dont own commons like you
almost top ticked it with this post.
i would say you don't know what you own, that's your problem.
happy monday.. looks like the commons have lost most of their post verdict gains.
wow what a roller coaster of emotions. up to .7 and down to .55 all in the same day. lots of volume on that drop. wild
We did win.
Yep good summary. Not sure what those lawyers did though. But they sure stood up and took credit for it. Shrug. I thought it was mostly cooper and kirk
Sandra Thompson has worked towards preparing Fannie and Freddie for life after conservatorship.
Jared Bernstein has written and talked about private capital taking the first loss position and ending the conservatorships via recap and release.
A jury just gave a verdict saying FHFA lost and FHFA/Treasury breached the contracts.
I still am hopeful. The Biden admin can lock in its administrative priorities:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4629381-dc-jury-decides-gse-shareholder-contracts-breached
If there is money in locking in the priorities (I am not saying there is), the new budget starts in October.
your shares lack security in a spspa conversion restructuring, which will be what happens absent a legal ruling that would be unprecedented in causing a spspa putback/writedown.
jps, however, would get made whole in every outcome
that's the differrence.
yes i've been wrong about time so far, but i am not wrong about jps being made better off.. that i am certain of eventually. roi from here is solid
Figured i'd update your notes:
8/11 Friday close .45 a week later 8/18 Friday close .58 & .62 both up over 30%
Monday - 8-0 Jury Verdict late mkt trading day resulted .495 closed +.04
Tues - Shorts expected Loss didn't cover low vol mkt only added +.01 closed .504
WED - Lemmings bought mkt up +.10 Shorts gotta cover now
Thurs - Lemmings Buys plus Shorts covering 28 Mil vol ended up .79 & .899
Fri - SHORTS royally pissed on vengence Blitzkreig ATTACK -
Lemmings ran away as well resulting in Freddie -26.5% Fannie -31%
next week - Lamberth Final Verdict w or without Damage award interest ?
I expect Plaintiffs file Appeal of Award & Interest - other GSE Cases Max File "citing this Verdict" as well
Volatility will continue but I'm expecting return of Lemming BUYING & GREEN Days to come ...
Tell me sweet little lies
If you want to play fast and loose feel free. That said, any intellectually honest observer would see that the APA claims should have resulted as an injunction reversing the nws in 2014 and 2019, but the court system has successfully misinterpreted the law and gotten away with it.
Further, the takings claims that were determined at the cofc were wrongly reversed at the cofc appeals court and the supreme court left them as is, wrongly.
And then you have the accounting fraud claims which were lost but were valid.
And then you have the lawsuits to inspect the books and records which were lost but valid.
And now you have breach of contract claims which the judge fucked up their damages models, basically fucking up the whole trial, but we still won, but pennies on the dollar. These damages models will get appealed or political forces will move to settle and move on.
In light of this wake of injustice at the hands of the white house and us treasury and complicit fhfa as well as a court system that then subsequently justifies these illegal actions stamping them as legal or light wrist slaps, are you sure that i am an unscrupulous pessimist?
Maybe so, but I think after 9 years of reading every legal filing, every legal ruling and the applicable law — and watching everything just get fucked — I think that my perspective is conservative. I think it is unreasonable to expect an invalidating or a writedown of the spspa liq pref — unless there is now some legal reason for doing that that shows up.
Good luck with the cofc Bryndon Fisher claims. I like them. I have been wrong about all the legal stuff so far — but that it because I expected the law to be followed and I was wrong about that. Good luck.
The supreme court made hera a political appointee so when the president changes, the new president will fire sandra thompson and replace her. That is why calabria got fired the day the scotus collins v yellen came out.
You dont seem to have a very thought out perspective
You and wiseman misread this, thinking that the law applies when no court is enforcing the concept of equity dividends being illegal when the companies are undercapitalized in conservatorship
This whole conservatorship has been a breach of law and trust and fraud pulled over the courts and public and shareholders. I do not think any legal action has challenged the cash dividend payments to the spspa 2008-2019.
Good luck with your subsequently broken analysis
You know, i respect that argument for most long term appreciation situations that do not involve an equity restructuring. Cheers to you— i anticipate a learning experience
If that is how you want to interpret my expectation on what i consider an eventuality, feel free.
Yeah, i am still forecasting as restructuring. It has not happened yet, when it does you will know.
Hopefully you were able to lighten up at higher prices and… i guess buy more now that they are back down. Yolo
Now you see it. Now you dont. Hopefully for you there are more days like thursday and less days like today moving forward. Jps underperformed common this week I think.
Are you going to post today’s performance? Do you think this goes back down below 50 cents or over $1 next? Were you able to sell some higher and buy some back lower?
Sorry about today. But you could have sold half close yesterday and bought jps
70 cents is still a lot higher than they were a week ago.
will be interesting to see what happens across the next week or two as far as pricing goes