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not true they do save $$ even if their income is meager. so multiply $100.00 per year times 1 billion. eh?
CD,
Good to hear from you. I just cannot respect either jr's or my own personal opinions <g> as we are raving lunatic fringe goldbuggie type people but of course being "Canuck" Dave and much more level headed than either of us are we in a RE bubble or not oh wise one?
Grasshopper.
Heck I don't know why they go up it can't be just supply and demand as there is plenty of building and permits happening. Just a function of low rates I assume making it cheaper to own, and the fact that a lot of people invest off of reading the current headlines, IE: stocks are bad real estate is good. <g> buy buy buy. LOL. jr it makes sense to me that we have already had our price explosion in housing now we get on in commodities the ones that really have not gone up historically, cattle, hogs, wheat, soybeans, apples, corn, silver, gold, etc. Maybe oil. We have had a tripling of home values in 12-13 years not so with what I just mentioned.
Only if it is listed in the article I referred to. Of course the local board of realtors or an appraisal firm may be able to direct you to some loca data. those realtors will be well armed for people like you. <g> jr the reasons we may be in a bubble are well documented. We have already had the price rise that proves excess inflation. Rates are at historic lows. Borrowers are borrowing at higher LTV's, less remaining equity, FHA delinquencies are at a very high level historically, unemployment is stagnant or rising etc. This does not bode well for prices in my book. BWTHDIK?
tom
No Bubble?:http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1004
Yesterday from the California Association of Realtors: "The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during August 2003 was a record $404,870, a 21.1 percent increase over the $334,270 median for August 2002... The August 2003 median price increased 5.6 percent compared to a $383,390 median price in July." In dollars, the California median price was up an eye-opening $21,480 during August and $70,600 y-o-y. Sales were up 14.7% from the strong year ago level. "All regions of the state recorded a marked increase in sales activity last month." Condo sales were up 16% y-o-y, with prices up an amazing 25.3% to $290,330. The unsold homes inventory dropped to only 2.1 months supply. Notable y-o-y prices increases included High Desert up 25.4%, Los Angeles 24.5%, Palm Springs/Lower Desert 22%, Ventura 23.6%, and Orange County 19.7%
There is still no inflation. <g>
right on!
Yeah I like trotsky.
CD,
I hope we have our week with SVL next week. Weather is going to be great down here. 88-90 today and tomorrow. Some bicycle riding coming up. AQI, SVL, GRS, and INM all held up nicely.
CKG coming into target range.<g>
tom
From CFZ:
To:ild who wrote (262023)
From: ild Friday, Sep 26, 2003 3:46 PM
Respond to of 262028
Date: Fri Sep 26 2003 15:07
trotsky (philbond@Sinclair) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
since Sinclair is a very high profile figure in the gold investment business, he should not be beyond criticism. the points fp42 made about the derivatives are valid - Sinclair DID make up those numbers as he went along. 330 was passed, and nothing happend, and the same goes for 354. both figures were cited by Sinclair as being triggers for some sort of melt-down. not surprisingly, he doesn't talk about them anymore.
that said, i would agree that Sinclair offers valuable advice as well. one mustn't forget that he actually made 100ds of millions in the gold biz, and that is imo reason enough to go and read what he has to say. he often makes good points, and his t/a advice isn't too bad either. however, he's certainly not all-knowing, and i sometimes really wonder about certain of his musings.
btw., although he betrayed some ignorance regarding the derivatives story, he also made a very worthwhile point about the daisy chain that has built up over the years...namely that the risk inherent in these instruments has become virtually unquantifiable. the systemic risk is indeed dependent on the weakest links in the chain, and no-one really knows for sure who or where they actually are. it's an accident waiting to happen, but gold derivatives are such a tiny percentage of the total notionals in this game that it's highly doubtful that that's where TS will HTF. nevertheless, i agree with him that the gold miners should be very careful about locking in prices for more than a year out. their risk is not so much that the PoG maight go a lot higher, but rather that a devaluation of fiat may well drive production costs much higher concurrently. imagine e.g. a crisis similar to the 70's - not a HUGE crisis, but certainly a time during which fiat money lost a great deal of value. say the PoG goes to some fantastic price, like $1,000 and at the same time average production costs go to something like $750/oz.
an unhedged miner would enjoy a healthy $250 margin...but e.g. Barrick with its 16 million oz. sold forward at $340 would go belly-up, no ifs and buts about it. so he's right about that point: the miners should re-assess their position vis-a-vis hedging very carefully.
From CFZ:
To:ild who wrote (262023)
From: ild Friday, Sep 26, 2003 3:46 PM
Respond to of 262028
Date: Fri Sep 26 2003 15:07
trotsky (philbond@Sinclair) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
since Sinclair is a very high profile figure in the gold investment business, he should not be beyond criticism. the points fp42 made about the derivatives are valid - Sinclair DID make up those numbers as he went along. 330 was passed, and nothing happend, and the same goes for 354. both figures were cited by Sinclair as being triggers for some sort of melt-down. not surprisingly, he doesn't talk about them anymore.
that said, i would agree that Sinclair offers valuable advice as well. one mustn't forget that he actually made 100ds of millions in the gold biz, and that is imo reason enough to go and read what he has to say. he often makes good points, and his t/a advice isn't too bad either. however, he's certainly not all-knowing, and i sometimes really wonder about certain of his musings.
btw., although he betrayed some ignorance regarding the derivatives story, he also made a very worthwhile point about the daisy chain that has built up over the years...namely that the risk inherent in these instruments has become virtually unquantifiable. the systemic risk is indeed dependent on the weakest links in the chain, and no-one really knows for sure who or where they actually are. it's an accident waiting to happen, but gold derivatives are such a tiny percentage of the total notionals in this game that it's highly doubtful that that's where TS will HTF. nevertheless, i agree with him that the gold miners should be very careful about locking in prices for more than a year out. their risk is not so much that the PoG maight go a lot higher, but rather that a devaluation of fiat may well drive production costs much higher concurrently. imagine e.g. a crisis similar to the 70's - not a HUGE crisis, but certainly a time during which fiat money lost a great deal of value. say the PoG goes to some fantastic price, like $1,000 and at the same time average production costs go to something like $750/oz.
an unhedged miner would enjoy a healthy $250 margin...but e.g. Barrick with its 16 million oz. sold forward at $340 would go belly-up, no ifs and buts about it. so he's right about that point: the miners should re-assess their position vis-a-vis hedging very carefully.
From CFZ:
To:ild who wrote (262023)
From: ild Friday, Sep 26, 2003 3:46 PM
Respond to of 262028
Date: Fri Sep 26 2003 15:07
trotsky (philbond@Sinclair) ID#377387:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
since Sinclair is a very high profile figure in the gold investment business, he should not be beyond criticism. the points fp42 made about the derivatives are valid - Sinclair DID make up those numbers as he went along. 330 was passed, and nothing happend, and the same goes for 354. both figures were cited by Sinclair as being triggers for some sort of melt-down. not surprisingly, he doesn't talk about them anymore.
that said, i would agree that Sinclair offers valuable advice as well. one mustn't forget that he actually made 100ds of millions in the gold biz, and that is imo reason enough to go and read what he has to say. he often makes good points, and his t/a advice isn't too bad either. however, he's certainly not all-knowing, and i sometimes really wonder about certain of his musings.
btw., although he betrayed some ignorance regarding the derivatives story, he also made a very worthwhile point about the daisy chain that has built up over the years...namely that the risk inherent in these instruments has become virtually unquantifiable. the systemic risk is indeed dependent on the weakest links in the chain, and no-one really knows for sure who or where they actually are. it's an accident waiting to happen, but gold derivatives are such a tiny percentage of the total notionals in this game that it's highly doubtful that that's where TS will HTF. nevertheless, i agree with him that the gold miners should be very careful about locking in prices for more than a year out. their risk is not so much that the PoG maight go a lot higher, but rather that a devaluation of fiat may well drive production costs much higher concurrently. imagine e.g. a crisis similar to the 70's - not a HUGE crisis, but certainly a time during which fiat money lost a great deal of value. say the PoG goes to some fantastic price, like $1,000 and at the same time average production costs go to something like $750/oz.
an unhedged miner would enjoy a healthy $250 margin...but e.g. Barrick with its 16 million oz. sold forward at $340 would go belly-up, no ifs and buts about it. so he's right about that point: the miners should re-assess their position vis-a-vis hedging very carefully.
I control only my immediate families money. <g> So far they have not complained. LOL. SVL will make it so I can climb the silver staircase!!!
kastel we have had a huge run it can't go in a straight line like we want. But wish it would. <g>
Well I hope you are winning on it!
And I hope the what is "sitting pretty". LOL. Not that pretty like Frank in his pink bicycle picture. <g>
cd what goes up must come down! <g> I think another 10%-15% down eh?
Bingo! I am THE GLUTTON FOR PUNISHMENT! <G>
Frank I exercised as much patience as I could. 5 hours. I just pulled the trigger on 24 K SVL. cannacord 33.<g> The buy side.
tom
That's the one.
Tom
A gain is a gain!
Hey people don't let Frank brow beat you into submission here on these filter things etc. <g> It only took him about 4 public and 5 private messages on IH & SI before I could figure out IH PM 101. LOL.
Go get em Frank! <g>
<Silver stocks getting taken out and getting beaten to death>
Now those silvers know a little bit about the old woodshed trips. <g>
I have a stink bid in on one of my favorites. <g>
Check out that Platinum. Ouch!
<g> eom
maybe.
Which day of reckoning? GOLD getting rocked:
http://www.cafsonline.com/welcome.htm
Eva,
This guy is a good read: Go to the link for the chart.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
(Thursday 9/25/2003 AM): The stock market is about to open up in a few minutes but the metals markets are already trading. Gold has broken through its prior December futures high of $391, trading overnight as high as $393.70 and currently at $391.70 as I write this update. Stop-runs should be expected if another rally can be made into the $393 area because most stops are set up for the day-session and not the Access (after hours) session. Silver is also at fresh highs trading to $5.395 overnight and currently at $5.345.
Now that we have broken the old high barrier the real test will be to see if this is sustainable. If the rest of this week gold can stay consistently above $391 then we may be able to start using $391 as a new support level. I am cautious at this point because of current bullish sentiment readings. As I have stated before, high sentiment can stay high during a bull market (just look at stocks during the 1990's). We are getting very close to an area where lower-level impulsive Elliott Waves should be ending and a one or two week consolidation should begin -- eventually, and quite likely before year-end, Gold should go well above $400.
Still without my charting programs the following will have to suffice -- this chart is the COMEX December Gold futures contract:
The color-coded waves show the current count as I see it. The large blue waves is the predominant structure of which we are currently within the large blue wave 3. Within that wave will be 5 smaller waves (labeled here as the black "1" inside a red circle in extreme upper right). You can see that this black wave has a ways to go yet while the smaller waves are continuing to play out. The lowest level, pink wave 5, is the one that may soon end, followed by the consolidation phase of the red wave 4. The pink wave 4 low and the green wave 3 high both ended at $385 so that is my support level for this red wave 4. None of this is enough to get too concerned about, even for the short-term. For clarification purposes, when the black "1" wave ends, there will be another pull-back for black wave 2 (then followed by waves 3, 4, and 5), but all of this is still within the context of larger blue wave "3" which is in a strong impulsive move up.
Longer term, if black wave 1 reaches $420 area, then we should expect black wave 2 to pull back as far as $375-380 area. Black wave 3 could then reach an area just shy of $500 and black wave 5 could easily break above $500. Timing-wise that could occur by mid-2004.
Much longer term, once the black series completes, it also completes blue wave 3. This would normally be followed by a pull back for blue wave 4 and then a final push higher for blue wave 5. Now this is the really cool part -- when that wave completes, it is only a wave "1" of a much higher level that began in March, 2003 (not labeled on the chart) and all of that is within a really big wave 3 of an even bigger structure that began in October, 2002 (not labeld on the chart). So if you are following me on this description, the bull market in gold is still quite young, just breaking away from an infant crawling and just beginning to walk. Very soon, this little tike will be running around, reaching and grabbing at price levels that few can fathom right now.
Take it all in context of your investment objectives. Long term, core investments need to stay invested for the long haul. Medium term investments should wait for the major swings. Short term (speculative) investments may need to be ready for a few swings coming up soon.
Thanks Dave.
Miht be time for a review. <g>
Both people are sharp and two opposing viewpoints. Personalities clashed. Too bad.
Bob if you read this your work has been much appreciated by me and many others.
thanks,
tom
CD I hope you have a good sense of smell.
tom
GOZ.V http://www.goldoreresources.com/s/Home.asp
Disclaimer: As I posted earlier today I took a large 100K initial position long in GOZ.V. My interest was perked by Claude who publishes a mining stock letter http://www.ormetal.com . Over the years CC has shown remarkable ability to sniff out early stage projects that have come to fruition and made nice share price increases over time. MFL, BAY, FGX, CBD,SVL, etc. One of the directors and the Chairman of GOZ is the recent past president of Cumberland. Glen Dickson and his president and chief geologist Robert Wasylyshyn were responsible for the Meadowbank discovery in the mid 80's. I have spoken with Glenn several times over the past couple of years and he is someone I respect and trust. I did not jump on GOZ when it appeared in Ormetal the 1st of September but in conversation with Kerry of CBD last week or so I asked him about GOZ. He told me to call Glenn but mentioned he was a share holder. One of the kind posters here on Frank's thread gave me a link for Embry's show last week and what do you know, GOZ was one of the 1st stocks mentioned. John Embry likes the stock and I believe owns it in Sprott's gold fund. Well with those Three Musketeers behind the stock I figured I would take the plunge myself.
In conversation with Rober W. (the chief geologist and central American specialist)today I can offer some updates. Please though do your own due diligence and feel free to call Robert or Glenn yourself. They welcome shareholder inquiries. Their goal is to build share holder value. The past few months they have been building a suite of properties that they have acquired and some that they are negotiating to acquire. They may be close to announcing the acquisition of several new projects. WHO REALLY KNOWS THOUGH AS ATTORNEYS ARE INVOLVED. <g> LJ please forgive me. <g>
The new properties may have pretty decent potential as some of the properties that have been reviewed or rejected have had some drilling and some of them have historical underground workings that have given GOZ an idea of potential more than just scratching at the surface. Properties that have open pit potential and some with rich underground vein workings are being considered. Suffice it to say if you read the directors histories on the GOZ web site they know what they are doing and have a long and strong history of making discoveries.
There has been some grid and soil work and sampling done on the La Plata and Lorenzo properties in recent weeks. Expect some assays in the not too distant future. In addition GOZ has around $1,600,000 in the kitty now and some warrants coming in may add 500-700 K in additional funds. These proceeds will be used to start a drilling campaign on the sweetest targets of the parcels under ownership in November. 50-60K monthly burn rate.
Now that they are close to building the portfolio of properties they want they are going to start promoting the company.
One other thing, Glenn and Robert are focusing on Gold Ore Resources and are keeping their acquisitions under the umbrella of one company. They are not splintering off the cream to new incorporations and they are not off running other mining companies. Their focus is on GOZ period. Glenn is in Honduras now and will be available sometime next week.
Good luck if any one here buys in. I am long and strong and behind this venture and am happy to along for the ride.
Tom
Yes. I like the President. Also when I was in conversation with a very high up person at CBD he said he was a share holder of GOZ and he is much smarter than me.<g> Plus CC reccomended it in his letter. Other reasons I can cover later. Such as they will make a discovery.
That is my weakest virtue! patience.
I am always in too big a hurry. <g>
Nobody else buying today? <g> I love my fill on GOZ 100K at .7025 average. Let's see if I love it tomorrow.
Disclosure post: Everyone knows I love CBD but do not like the gold action. I sold all my CBD today and will buy back in the not too distant future for less, more or the same I sold at. <g>
I bought a large position of GOZ.V and added to GRS.TO. I am still accumulating another position and will disclose when finished.
tom
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[r,a]dellyyay[d19920322,20031231][pb50!b200][vc6...
Check it out for me Louis and Frank, Little Joe,?