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Correct about reaction. Setting up my U/C trade correctly.
On a scale of 1-10 I call the news bearish about a 2 rating. My opinion was wrong. But a couple of the #'s where as I expected. Still short my E/U
Good morning guys. Took a look at the upcoming U.S. data releases coming out in about 25 minutes.
My OPINION is that they have the estimates about right. And probably the OVERALL outcome will be better. Just my opinion tho. but my money is on it.
The 10 o'clock factory orders is to me more important than the 8:30 numbers.
Yup, think I found my next trade, but it's probably still a couple of days away. Bernanke will send the swiss back above the clouds, high up in the Alps soon. The only defense they have is pip pistols against Bernanke's pip filled nukes. But they will have their ski's with them and will come blasting down the slopes again in 2-4 weeks...
E/U sell working nicely for me. And I don't even have to keep re-loading my pip pistol with new trades.
Best of luck guys
It likely will not even get us an invitation to the next G8 meeting!! LOL They won't even give us a chance in helping to establish the acceptable parameters that they will not intervene in.
Maybe the ISM bullish # has broken the E/U buyers will?? Hope so...
Bullish U.S. for the last 2 days, and the E/U price just flip flops around SG's mid line on the 15 min chart.
Good morning SG & thanks for your latest post. I do understand what you are saying. And you are more aware than I regarding relationships between what I consider to be the minor pairs. A/J for example. And I don't have the time to study/trade these pairs. Have enough trouble keeping up with the U.S. dollar stuff.
Dog gone, I dumped my A/U a little to early.
We agree on the XAU bottom being in. I hope that it is correct, because I am like 90% in PM's at this time in the equity's.
Size of the economy = population when educational levels are roughly equal. The larger more diverse economy can absorb the swings better = less short/mid term volatility. The AUD seems to be a one trick pony, thus the bigger swings.
A little research this morning regarding COAL. China imports 40% of it's coal from the aussie's. Demand in china for coal is still increasing, BUT the U.S. and Russia is now supplying a much bigger chunk of China's coal demand. Fracking in the U.S. has opened up huge new natural gas supplies. Replacing coal fired generators, thus reducing U.S. domestic demand, thus opening up supply to sell to china at CHEAPER prices, thus cutting in to Aussie's exports.
Just one example.
Books can be written on the stuff we are talking about here. But what little that can be passed back & forth on this board may help all of us be better traders.
SG I really do appreciate the effort that you have put into your supertunnel. It has added a new & successfull tool to my trading perspective. Thanks for shareing.
88.50 would likely make a nice rounded bottom on the daily chart. But I am not certian. I want to look at some world commodity prices (IE China demand) to get a better feel for the situation. Coal will be a good place to start. Will do this as I have time over the next 24 hrs.
Good way to look at it. A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
My A/U cover today was the trade that was a BAD entry that I made 2 weeks ago when I first started trading SG 's supertunnel. It was 200 pips in the red at one point but by seeing the big picture it turned out OK for me.
Went ahead and closed my A/U for 85 pips. It's trending up slightly against the news and seems to be a bit overblown on the down side. Can always re-enter later.
Will hold my E/U sell from yesterday. No guts no glory
Job cuts # came in bullish for the U.S. dollar.
EU will not change the bid rate but the press conference propaganda tool could create some sparks at 8:30
U.S. data for today likely in line with estimates. Adjusted with rose colored glasses. as stargate puts it.
Still holding my sell E/U & A/U but thinking about temporatily closing the A/U to trade again later.
SG, take a look at the reality's here.
AUD rely's heavily on natural resource exports. Fish, grains, METALS, ect. In 2010 the trade surplus for the AUD was positive 10 billion for the year. China was BOOMING in 2010 (their #1 export, and import partner) #2 Japan then U.S, India, EU in some following order. This has now dried up to a large extent. China is slowing down, and Japan is just about in shambles. I will guarantee that the aussies will be running a trade deficit this year. ABSOLUTELY not good for the value of the AUD.
They have no real manufacturing base. Therefore their destiny is not as controlable as that of the U.S. They can not make China buy more iron ore, if it is not needed. But the U.S. on the other hand can make the world want/need our hi tech stuff. Therefore, as long as the U.S. continues to innovate, we will continue to DO BETTER, RELATIVELY SPEAKING.
Unemployment #'s are of no value whatsoever, except that green and red tell the trend on both sides of the A/U trade. 5.5% unemployment in australia tells me nothing, since I do not know how they calculate it. 7.6% in the U.S. tells me lots, even though it is strife with problems, misleading info. and down right deceit. It still gives me the trend. Do not pay to much attention to employment figures. LOTS of other #'s give a better picture.
The fundamentals of the U.S. are not good, but the current, and recent past fundamentals for the AUD are a lot worse at this time.
European hedge funds selling/ driving the price down. Maybe to some extent. ABSOLUTELY no way to prove it tho. But if it becomes to blatent, the central banks will intervene and BLOW ALL of the sellers out of the market. Actually, hedge funds serve a purpose to the central banks by doing their dirty work for them.
Population of AUSTRALIA APPX 23 MILLION.
" " U.S. " 300 MILLION.
Bottom line is that their is no way that the AUD deserves parity, or above parity relative to the U.S. dollar. It will reverse when China and the rest of the world come out of this recession. Not untill. And then we also need to ask IF IT IS GOING TO END.
Agree with everything you said about the EUROPEAN UNION. That is in part, the reason that I entered a position trade today (sell E/U) and yes, it probably is a more reliable money maker than even the A/U sell.
SG, I will respnd to your post later tonight, or tomorrow morning. Been out for the last 4 hrs. & do not want to shoot from the hip with my feelings regarding the A/U. I want to present my idea's/perspective/opinions in a considerate manner. So need some time to think it thru.
stkjunky
PS- Still short my A/U and recent (today) sell E/U.
Sold E/U better late than never. Not much upside risk. Gonna hold it for several days & see what develops.
Jeesh, I missed that sell e/u. Went out for about 45 min. & came back to see it already back down. Maybe the short/mid term top is in on e/u. Will be checking.
Qui, remember, the trend is your friend.. You will be a better trader if you stick with the BIG trend when entering trades. Need to look at this weeks fundamentals on the AUD to understand that a reversal is unlikely here & now. The miss on the housing numbers for the AUD was HUGE a few days ago. The A/U will likely have to settle out for a period of time before I would switch from sell to buy.
The e/u is trending better than the A/U right now for a mid term reversal kind of trade.
Pennies, I also have been looking at the e/u as my favorite pick to sell here based on the daily chart pattern. But I would like to see the TD rsi get a little higher here, signaling a blow of kinf of mid term top.
May take your trade tho on the fmc. Also like your 88.5 bottom on the a/u May exit at that point & swap into the e/u Waiting to see how the timing works out.
Qui, pennies is your man for that pair. I do not trade it, and don't have the time to look at it. Have to many coals in the fire now. I only trade u.s. dollar pairs.
I am only in the A/U short right now, and waiting/watching for my daily charts to tell me when to best time an entry into the E/U or U/J or U/F.
Will let the board know when I make an entry in one of these.
Wish you the best of success.
Yes, each one of us has to find what works for them. Time to dedicate to trading/analysis. Pesonality profile and risk tolerance. Lots of stuff enters into trading. What works for one, may not work for someone else.
I will admit that technical alalysis has come a long way in the last 3-4 years. Example's are traders dynamic index and BRAVO to SG for his supertunnel. Lots easier to successfully trade the forex today, than it was 5 years ago...
I don't trade the stock market much anymore. I mostly hold these & occassionaly adjust my positions as fundamentals dictate. And try to apply the T's to to adjust/time the stock portfolio adjustments to my best advantage. But get my kicks from the forex...
Pennies, fundamentals trump technicals. The F's drive the T's. At one time for several years, I strictly traded the T's in the stockmarket, but then discovered that over the LONG haul that holding/buying the F's made me a LOT more money.
Example of fundamentals. I bought BMET (now private) for 6 1/2 years in an IRA. All that I could buy each week. Company fundamentals where great. Made 400% on my money based on earnings, quality managment ect. The fundamentals made me a lot of money, not the T's.
Yes, T's have their place. Best example based on my experience (25+ years) WAS 2008, when the U.S. stock market was tanking big time. Most all independent investors in stocks lost as much as 80% of their investments at one point or another. Myself included. No one could believe what was happening. Many bailed at the wrong time. I bailed before the bottom with BIG losses, then turned to the T's for help. I found it by applying the T's to the DJIA and the s&p, coupled with my thinking that the Dow would not fall below 6000 (as it turned out, about a fib 78% drop). When it approached 6000, I came back in and started buying 100 shares of as many quality companys as I could find. Had 22 diferent company's at one point. Traded a few & held a few.
Bottom line result was that from september of 2008 thru december, My 80% loss was turned into a 10% gain year over year. Not many can lay claim to that performance in that year.
I have learned that BOTH F'S & T's are critical to success in the markets... If you combine both, and try to keep your longer term perspective focused on F's for trend, then the T's line the ducks in a nice straight row.
My forex track record for the last year is 55 trades, 2 losing trades. One looser for 3 pips and 1 for 18 pips.
Maybe I have it worked out to fit MY style of trading. Yes, had to ride some loosers for a while occassionaly, but ultimately turned the negatives into positives by paying attention to EVERYTHING that I can find.
Yea, I know, to much info. I'll get out from behind the podium now.
Certianly looks interesting pennies. German & French economy's seem to be slowing down. Only glue holding the euro together. But the A side of the trade still looks like disaster as well, from a fundamental perspective. The A side is heavily dependent on natural resources, so if gold/commodities continue to pick up, it could be a good trade, but I think that it may be a little early, although I do not trade this pair, and am not as familiar with it's nuances.
Yes.
Ahh, Bernanke, A master of smoke & mirrors WITH rose colored glasses.
One only has ro study a few statistics to understand what is really going on in America. And NOT the ones put out by the government. Base your long term plays on private sector statistics, put out by SOME news sources, and profit.
IT'S BUY THE DOLLAR THIS MORNING. Trend continues.
U.S. employment # good for dollar
And good for my sell A/U
Looks like things are shaping up for dollar strength this morning just before the news releases.
Employment # will likely be in line or close. Big one shld br the gdp. Gotta see what it says. History has been estimate miss on the high side.
"AU on the other hand, oh my what a disaster."
Just what the doctor ordered for me. Lovin every minute of it. Patience is a virtue (sometimes).
This niobium is contained in HARD bedrock. There will be nothing easy about getting it out. Shure as h#*& not going to scoop the dirt up with a back hoe or dozer!!
That,s because they do not have ANY truely interested parties... or the deal would be cut by now..
500 year supply of niobium already on the records from other sources, what makes anyone think that dumping 15-40 MILLION into this stock makes any sense at all. Percentage of .47 niobium does not come close to other mines in production. cbmm example 2.5%
Little common sense used on this board by the permabulls!!!
Closed trade on long E/U for 7 pips. But time to retire for the evening. Every little bit helps.
OK, just went long the E/U. Don't expect much out of it and it may take a little time to get anywhere, but this is the best that I can find right now.
Good evening pennies. The A/U looks pretty weak here. Could move up a little, but needs to break about .9170 for any kind of chance. The 15 min chart looks like it wants to roll back over to the down side, and the daily based on my charting looks weak, but not going to sell another one here. You where dead on regarding your bounce from the gap fill. Have not figured out yet just how you found it, but the call was GOOD. Still in my short A/U and gained a bunch on it in the last 24 hrs.
Looking to maybe buy the E/U here tho. Just broke thru the clouds on the daily, and it's bouncing off one of the supertunnel support lines right now.
Good morning pennies. I am still looking at my U.S. dollar related pairs. Have not entered anything. May just take the day off. Have some things to do today.
Yes, I am thinking the same thing. Catch you tomorrow.
got out of my A/U sell with a nice 22 pip gain. News got it going. Still in 1 long term sell tho, so hope to see it continue to fall, but my trading is offsetting the looser. I am just going to continue to hold it.
Just went short the A/U at .9280 little conserned about it tho.
Time will tell.
Sounds like a plan. I am out now & waiting. U.S. existing home sales (prices) came in below expectations, but the same as the prior month. Should help with an A/U bounce here, but no lasting impact.
That sounds reasonable. I am trying to squeeze 10 pips out of it, then exit for a little while. We have U.S. housing data out IN ABOUT 20 MINUTES. That might be the key.
Edit, just dumped the long A/U for 6 pips. Does not seem to have the strength yet.
Pennies, thanks for your analysis on the A/U. I just went long on it & may have to hold it for a little while.
OOPs there she goes as I type.
I am using (primarily) SG's supertrends on a 1 hr chart. Price is bouncing along support.
Here are the acts. I need waist no more time on my own. It is as clear as a bell sounding.
QUOTE
"Some things never change...Day #126 since Scott "strong-armed" the Chinese and still NO DEAL OR UPDATE AS TO WHY THERE IS NO DEAL OR WHY THE SUPPOSED ROCK TESTING IS STILL NOT COMPLETED. In addition, no suitors jumping in to offer VIABLE/SUSTAINABLE financing. Lastly, no update as to the other supposed investors lining up?
....and since August 1st, 2012 right after the Chinese signed the first exclusivity deal, it has been 355 (THREE HUNDRED and FIFTY-FIVE) days and still NO DEAL!
Scott issued intentions to issue Audited Financials five years ago and failed to do so and never followed up as to why he failed. We are fast approaching 6 years since this, one of his many failures,occurred.
Scott issued intentions to uplist five years ago and failed to do so and never followed up as to why he failed. We are fast approaching 6 years since this, one of his many failures, occurred.
Scott, where is your transparency and why have you failed so miserably?"
AND ADD the FACT that Scott never even attempted to address the CTO (cease trade order) from the vancouver exchange. What a joke
Good luck guys with your trade. I would get on it, especially now, but I just do not like trading anything not U.S. dollar related on one side or the other. Not much on the calender for tomorrow regarding news. Just U.S. existing home sales. My bet is that the no's will be ok. Gonna call it a night now. Will check back in in the morning.
Looks like a reasonable trade. Don't see to much downside risk. May need to hold it for a little while tho.
I am not seeing much that really turns me on right now, so just waiting for things to develop more.