is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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interesting... and I am going to make a prediction.
The accountant will sue JBI for wrongful dismissal and/ or misrepresentation.
No one who accepts a job is just going to accept it when these kinds of bonusses slip through their fingers. And whatever case he chooses to make, the courts will be very sympathetic to the employee especially in his first year of employment. His first crack at it so to speak. Unless the accountant is totally incompetent, which JBI would have to prove. If it was a matter beyond the accountant's control, well then the CFO will have a good case. May be Constructive Dismissal, yet another option.
JBI had to deal him a hand that could be played. Note the qualifier: "Successful completion of attached job description is a prerequisite and crucial part of value based management." The same tactic was used with Kaplanis. JBI will say that the CFO did not do his job in some way.
Fact is that this is a typical bonus in the form of a "lure" that was used to get the CFO to accept the job. Bonusses are a common vague promise used to lure people into accepting jobs. I come from teh software industry, and it is common to offer such bonuses and then to reneg on them.
One of two things happened; he was misled in accepting the position, it just was not doable; or the CFO is completely incompetent. If he got pressured into releasing financials that were not agreeable to him, that is the same as being misled. THat could also be construed as Constructive Dismissal. Either way,,, I predict the CFO will resign. Total incompenence is hard to prove.
We will definitely be hearing about this one.
do you think that money invested in JBI will deliver a good return, say 10%/ year, going forward? Just understand some of the basic parameters... they have not made any serious revenues as of yet, and have spent what they have...
that is what matters. Is that what you mean by "believing in a company"?
and as for "all that it stands for", lots of companies stand for good things, like all of the alternative energy/ fuel/ transportation companies out there. Like Azure Dynamics (AZD).. now broke.. just did a Reverse Split, screwing early investors. Or Arise Technologies (Solar Cells)... broke.. I liked what they "stand for" as well.
Do you think that investors really care what a company "stands for" when they lose their investment? I think not....
A "promoter" in my books is someone who makes the above such promises wrt earnings whilst knowing that it is not likely, or while looking for self-interest.
What a company "stands for" is somewhat important. My last approach was to do a stock filtering based on Dividend Yield and P/E ratio. Yielded great results. One of the companies was The Cash Store... one of those payday load places... not interested. I don't like what they "stand for". In reality though, that kind of thinking is a small part of the buying decision.
Most investors want the return... that is capitalism..
So do you believe JBI will yeild a good (10%) yearly return over the medium to long term?
now there is a bold statement. Without doing a bit of research... just off of the top of my head... if that is the case, then...
- where is the P2O ship?
- where are the 45 sites in Florida?
- where is the full commercial production (for I would think over a year now)
- where are the sustaining tape revenues?
Hey peeps... so what is this board about??
zardiw: you don't know that JBI is going to make money. No one does.... simple statistics are that most companies in developmental stages like this go down bankrupt or do a Reverse Split with early investors screwed.
How do you know that JBI si going to be profitable as soon as they do some serious processing of plastic? You/ us have no idea at all.
And.. in case it is not obvious to you... JBI's fraud, proven or not, resulted in him getting over 8 Million dollars... that is what got this beast to where it is. Unfortunately, to date it has only eaten investors money, not plastic..
The bigger the dog, the more expensive it is to take care of.
Margins are not 90%. I just posted that he should have spent a mere $400k getting a team of guys to look seriously at this thing for 6 months before spending lal of this money...
He promised production "within weeks" 1.5 years ago at the AGM. little more than a few months...
I think more than a few investors have been misled here. expecting profitability a long time ago.
If he wanted investors to finance a science experiment with no set outcome... he should have been clear about that.
I watched his speech when he said all he needed was a simple air permit... rather a Simple Air Permit, a Solid Waste Permit, a Stack Test, a design that works, modularity, a pre-melt thingofa majig, customers, and $10-20 Million...
your post does not make alot of sense. The techniques i speak of are universal and common aross the engineering and construction industry. What really makes no sense is that because Bordynuik has taken so long tinkering with his toys and perfecting things, he has spent $30 million and got nowhere. Time is money. If you would think in in those terms, you would "get" what I am saying.
Capital projects work like this in a company: They spend a % of the capital budget doing varous levels of estimates and studies on a proposed capital investment. To pull some raw numbers out, they may spend 5% of the total on a FEL 1, 10% on a FEL 2, and maybe 3% on a FEL 3. You can look up what those terms mean on the internet. I did, and there is plenty available. At each stage there is a gate. A project can be cancelled at any time.
That is what those companies that tried and failed with the DEC may have been doing. They were just doing their homework and analysis prior to making a bad decison.
The final Go/ NO Go decision occurs after or partly through a FEL 3. At that time engineering is 80% complete, and Procurement is ready to order Long-Lead items. There is no turning back beyond this point.
For example, a project may be 30% complete, yet be over 50% Committed. That is the cost of the parts they have paid for and are in transit. If they were to terminate the project, it would cost them that much.
After the final GO/ NO GO, time is money. They get it done.
In JBIs case, I have estimated the capital cost of the first 3 processors at 2 Million. THat would justify 20% being spent on Engineering prior to making a Go/ No Go decision. That is 400k. At $100/hour that is 4000 hours or about 2 manyears. A team of 5-6 for 6 months. Perfect. After that kind of analysis, it should be a 6-month build by an outside firm.
Double it because it is the first time for the process... still. Something should have been running long ago.
Part of the FEL 1 analysis is ROI analysis. THey know what the return is going to be. Every day of lost production is work so many dollars... the race is on..
ANyway, companies typically go to third parties (Engineering companies) for a coupe of reasons; it is not their core competiency, and it is valuable and sometimes required by securities laws to get a second opinion when such a large sum of money is being spent. I worked on Feasibility Studies for projects over 1 Billion. Companies focus on Sales, Marketing, etc. Besides which, why take on all those people for work which by definition is for a short time?
WHen the project is done, the asset is priced and put on the books as a Capital asset and the project is over. Team disperses.
THe list of engineering companies in Canada that do this is:
Hatch
AMEC
Bechtel
Worley-Parsons... etc...
These engineering companies develop areas of expertise but they all basically do the same things;
Architectural
Process
Mechanical
Electrical
Piping
etc....
Now compare this to JBI...
- they are trying to throw money at the problem without even knowing if it will pay for itself. I have never seen any detailed analysis out of JBI on ROI. Investors should feel better if they get just one machine working profitably before they build a second one.
- they are doing it all inhouse (on the CC they talked about hiring engineers, building fab shops) THis is hugely expensive.
- they do not to my knowledge have a construction package (set of drawings, etc) that would enable an outside firm to build their product. THe closest outfit hat might be able to do that is Islechem. TO my knowledge that is not their function.
- they are moving in some good directions with their modular construction, etc, but they have also spent 2 years doing it...
- they rely on private equity (PIPE offerings)
Most importantly, this is NOT what they told early investors. When I first started posting here in early 2010, I understood that they could always rely on tape revenues, which would support the business while the P2O was developed. That was a complete lie. THen there were multiple announcements about "commercial operations beginning". Never happened.
So.. two things...
If JBI was misleading in 2010 about their prospects... how do you know they will be successful now??
and
how many millions of dollars will be spent before they have something that can at least run continuously (and prove it, of course)... ?
Still not a good investment IMO.
your post does not make alot of sense. The techniques i speak of are universal and common aross the engineering and construction industry. What really makes no sense is that because Bordynuik has taken so long tinkering with his toys and perfecting things, he has spent $30 million and got nowhere. Time is money. If you would think in in those terms, you would "get" what I am saying.
Capital projects work like this in a company: They spend a % of the capital budget doing varous levels of estimates and stidues on a proposed capital investment. To pull some raw numbers out, they may spend 5% of the total on a FEL 1, 10% on a FEL 2, and maybe 3% on a FEL 3. You can look up what those terms mean on the internet. I did, and there is plenty available. At each stage there is a gate. A project can be cancelled at any time.
THe final Go/ NO Go decision occurs after or partly through a FEL 3. At that time engineering is 80% complete, and Procurement is ready to order Long-Lead items. There is no turning back beyond this point.
For example, a project may be 30% complete, yet be over 50% Committed. That is the cost of the parts they have paid for and are in transit. If they were to terminate the project, it would cost them that much.
After the final GO/ NO GO, time is money. They get it done.
Part of the FEL 1 analysis is ROI analysis. THey know what the return is going to be. Every day of lost production is work so many dollars... the race is on..
ANyway, companies typically go to third parties (Engineering companies) for a coupe of reasons; it is not their core competiency, and it is valuable and sometimes required by securities laws to get a second opinion when such a large sum of money is being spent. I worked on Feasibility Studies for projects over 1 Billion. Companies focus on Sales, Marketing, etc. Besides which, why take on all those people for work which by definition is for a short time?
WHen the project is done, the asset is priced and put on the books as a Capital asset and the project is over. Team disperses.
THe list of engineering companies in Canada that do this is:
Hatch
AMEC
Bechtel
Worley-Parsons... etc...
These engineering companies develop areas of expertise but they all basically do the same things;
Architectural
Process
Mechanical
Electrical
Piping
etc....
Now compare this to JBI...
- they are trying to throw money at the problem without even knowing if it will pay for itself. I have never seen any detailed analysis out of JBI on ROI. Investors should feel better if they get just one machine working profitably before they build a second one.
- they are doing it all inhouse (on the CC they talked about hiring engineers, building fab shops) THis is hugely expensive.
- they do not to my knowledge have a construction package (set of drawings, etc) that would enable an outside firm to build their product. THe closest outfit hat might be able to do that is Islechem. TO my knowledge that is not their function.
- they are moving in some good directions with their modular construction, etc, but they have also spent 2 years doing it...
- they rely on private equity (PIPE offerings)
Most importantly, this is NOT what they told early investors. When I first started posting here in early 2010, I understood that they could always rely on tape revenues, which would support the business while the P2O was developed. That was a complete lie. THen there were multiple announcements about "commercial operations beginning". Never happened.
So.. two things...
If JBI was misleading in 2010 about their prospects... how do you know they will be successful now??
and
how many millions of dollars will be spent before they have something that can at least run continuously (and prove it, of course)... ?
Still not a godo investment IMO.
IMO there are very few Apples in this world, much less repeats (coming back after getting bounced out)?? I used to invest in high tech but after watching it for maybe 8 years now... just too unstable.
Most companies or people that try to be perfect, especially those that have to do it all themselves, will fail.
But, Jobs was an exception, no doubt about that.
can't really get into that, not in fairness to myself or my employer. Bear in mind that on projects such as this, workers normally work an 11 or 12-hour day. Part of the package. THat kind of range is normal when you consider a typical resource curve (S-Curve) on a project like this. Greenfield site.
our manloading varies from 500 to 1000... close though.
Actually no.. I have been present at technical discussion where they discuss how to isolate systems to do work with them. It is more than meets the eye.. actually systems can be totally isolated with no vapors present whatsoever. What is discussed in the link monitors for vapors.. that is insurance. Ventilation is the engineered solution. Ventilation and a physical barrier.
no this is what i meant by a lack of a production focus.
Fact is that construction is dangerous work. In doing my research I found more talk about the danger to the welders themselves from welding fumes. In every construction site I have been on, someone got hurt to some extent. It is not like 20 years ago when people were walking the high steel in New York and Toronto without fall protection and the odd "mishap" occurred, but accidents do happen. That is what workmen's comp is for. And it is obvious from the article that some indicents did occur, or else they would not have written the article. On our site we are having a celebration for 1 Million Hours worked without an Incident... no one has gotten hurt... but stuff happens.
In this case I think that #1 should have been running for more than a year now, with downtimes for enhancements.. and tie-ins to other systems.
that is the way I see it from an investor's viewpoint.
I am just trying to share my experience. But, I can't always remember every detail of everything i have worked with. If someone looked at my posts and made a list of all the different types of technologies I have been exposed to, it would be a long list. But, I have never lied about anything.
Fact is, I didn't remember that they used nitrogen to purge systems because it is an inert gas. I get nitrogen and hydrogen mixed up. makes it tough knowing which balloon to choose.. anyway.. i got them mixed up while i was working there.
point is.. i can still point out the dangers of doing hot work around oxygen when the average person may figure it is totally safe because it is .. like.. what we breathe..
ever wondered what keeps cigarettes alight.. it is the Oxygen..
Yes i am that guy.
right. very expensive. better to choose the lowest cost option.
it was just a random memory from the call...
something interesting about the conference call. He talked about storage.... said he had a whopping 20k liters of storage for a type of fuel. IMO that is nothing. Seems to me he needs storage tanks like the blending site if he wants to be a player.... to have decent volume... IMO.
I listened to the conf call.
Way too technical for me at this stage of the game. JB is not a particularly good speaker, but he is a pretty good salesman. My impressions:
- they are not focussed on production or cash flow. They seem to be focussed on perfection, which is not a trait for success.
- their cash needs are huge.
- they are making lots of promises wrt business opportunities, but I have heard that before with startups. Next thing you know, they are bankrupt.
- too much time spent on tweaking and modifying, not on production of something.
- #1 was down for more reasosn than the welding sparks, it was also for modifications.
- I still question the basic profitability of this business.
Processor 1 was not running "full-time". Your figures on losses may be accurate, but JBI did say that they have #1 and #2 running going forward.
As far as I am concerned there is no guarantee they will be profitable in this configuration, and you are correct, the financial risk is huge.
This reference explains what I am talking about clearly:
http://www.chemistryexplained.com/elements/L-P/Oxygen.html
A couple of key quotes:
"Oxygen's most important chemical property is that it supports combustion. That is, it helps other objects to burn. "
"Metal production accounts for the greatest percentage of oxygen use. For example, oxygen is used to burn off carbon and other impurities that are in iron to make steel. A small amount of these impurities may be desirable in steel, but too much makes it brittle and unusable. The carbon and other impurities are burned off in steel-making by blasting oxygen through molten iron.
Read more: http://www.chemistryexplained.com/elements/L-P/Oxygen.html#ixzz1nv2EyjOH"
As i posted, I participated in a project to build an oxygen storage system for a steel-making facility by taking advantage of shut-down windows to perform the necessary tie-ins. Other than those few weeks, the steel plant kept on operating.
if you look back at the posting it makes no difference. If I am wrong, so be it. It had nothing to do with my point... I was talking about welding near tanks that may contain dangerous gases. Oxygen does not have to be one of them.
i worked on a project where we built storage tanks for oxygen to feed to a blast furnace. I also took safety training where both oxygen and hydrogen were discussed as hazards... I saw a video of a guy who had been burned by oxygen... and I know about the speck of sand thing... it was explained to me by the Project Manager.
I think we are sayign the samt thing... anyway... oxygen in a plant environment is dangerous... enough said.
So does JBI. You just don't know it yet.
He is not saving any money by keeping #1 down while building #2. That is why I think he is just lying or does not know what he is doing.
Calculate any way you want the lost revenue by not running Proc #1 while building proc #2...
the biggest use of oil is the autop industry by far. That was my reasoning behind the post.
Did you know that the Abrams tank can run on anything combustible?? It is a turbine engine.
I worked for a time on the ballistic computer for the Abrams M-1 tank. maybe it can run on butter!! It is a turbine engine. Multi-fuel for sure... meant to run on anything on the battlefield.
oxygen may not be, but it simply needs some kind of ignitor. When I was in that business I heard it explained better, but oxygen is deadly. People get burned up by it. It is the raw fuel for industrial furnaces in steel making and other industries.
THe project I was on was for a steel plant for the auto industry. We installed several large tanks to store oxygen so it was available on demand to make more steel. Oxygen is the raw fuel for combustion, it just needs an ignition source.
What I do remember is that when we commissioned a system, we used to completely purge a system with nitrogen (inert gas). So much as a speck of sand would cause an explosion when oxygen was fed into the system. Something to do with the contact of the speck of sand with the piping.
my words.. watch how carefully the operator handles the hoses the next time a tanker refills welding gases at retail... he is not allowed to let it fall on asphalt... the oil in the asphalt??
Prove it is running continuously... ?
the $30 Million spent to date is YOUR money. Unless you are talking about RKT... they are investing nothing.
Took me about 2 minutes to do a bit of research on welding practices. This link explains it pretty well.
http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/23721/lessons-prevent-death-tanks
THere is no way that that plant (processor #1) should have been down for more than a few weeks to do the tie-ins...
There are 3 ways to address safety
1) avoid doing the work in the first place
2) engineer the risk out
3) protect the worker (PPE)
If someone wants to argue that processor #1 should be completely shut down for the duratio nof the build on #2, that would be 1 above. Simply not necessary and costly. Are you going to purge all of the fluids out of #1 as well? I think not. It would likely need to be shut down when the tie-ins are done. That is why these things are usually done during regularly scheduled shutdowns (along with other scheduled maintenance). JBII should be running full tilt on #1 and having regular shutdowns for maintenance, tweaking, whatever.
The article talks about 2 above. Various ways that the work can be controlled and monitored. 3 above is the protection the worker wears.
If this job had been done by pros, this article explains how it would have been done.
You are being misled. That Plant & Equipment are alot more expensive than anyone is caring to admit.. it is an investment. Feedstock is just one cost factor. you are ignoring lots of costs in your post there, like sorting/ handling.. the RKT investment is huge.
hardly a no-brainer.
AZD... "D". is trading at .03. Somethin' big happened a couple of days ago and the eps = -0.06. JBI is at -0.31.
Anyway I watched, hoped for, and at times invested in AZD for over 5 years.... didn't even read the news... lost interest a long time ago.
they had a great product, a hybrid drivetrain that you could buy at a dealer for an F-150.. and was being sold to fleets for delivery services, etc. You would think it would sell like hotcakes huh?? good story huh? much like JBI.
Like Azure Dynamics... (AZD), and Ballard Power.
All I can say is that I pity the fools that financed these companies in their early growth stages.
Azure was losing money on every hybrid drivetrain they sold. It was all promises. Now they are doing a Reverse Split and all the early investors are screwed.
moral of the story... DON'T BE ONE.
Yes it is possible to catch bottoms... but the overall trend is down from that initial excitement.
At least AZD had decent sales for a few years before this. JBI is not even there yet. And the initial excitement is way over. Like back in early 2010.
Any plant needs a warehouse to store inventory... he needs some storage tanks. I guess that is where the blending plant comes into play... that would be my first guess. Either that or a field-erected tank on-site. That blending plant is much more useful to him as a storage facility than a blending plant... without it he has to erect a storage tank for his product. whoops... guess jBI did not think of that.
no what I meant is that that statement is vague as to what it means, that they are actually producing 24/7 at that rate or not. Production to-date in absolute tons or lbs would have been more definitive.
I know and agree about hydrogen. I have worked on many projects where systems are isolated (valving is used to isolate sections of pipe in order that work can be performed), locked out an tagged out.
I worked on a project in Industrial gases where tanks were erected and tied in to an operating plant. It was an oxygen plant, which is even more explosive than hydrogen. We were looking for a shutdown window to do the tie-in. I really doubt that they flushed all of the oxygen out of the piping for the whole plant in order to do the welding for the tie-ins. That would be ridiculous..
I could research this. I think it would be fairly easy to establish that such things are possible.
you could be right, but without production numbers that statement could be taken to mean anything.
time is money. People on my site make alot of money. we are well paid. but we take no chances. they go hand-in-hand. One accident costs a company tons of money.
If one of those guys gets killed or even hurt using forklifts to do what is supposed to be done with a crane, JBI would have a liability suit against them in a minute, and if he was doing things that way he would be at fault and shut down instantly.
I have talked about how much employees cost companies. There is a reason for that... on a construction site every employee is entitled to a safety briefing in the morning. a JSA. an analysis of risks for a task.. etc.. etc. yes it costs money.. it is all to save money in the long run.
I cost the company I work for about $160/hour (rough figure). That is becuase I drive a 4X4 truck around at company expense on the site. I get 3 meals a day and it is open 24 hr. I get the above safety stuff. My rate is a substantial portion of that.
anyway.. that is just an old picture.
Your post is missing some basic assumptions like .. making money. For what earthly reason would they wait until their existing customer base was ready to take their product? Time is money. Find some more customers JB.
Was there a need to run the processors? Are you serious?
you don't know that. you know what the permitting limits are. is that not correct? You don't know they are running continuously.
I can think of a reason why he had to lie about why #1 was shut down.... because he can't run #1 continuously. Simple.
How long has this construction been going on? Years? Yes there would be time windows where you could not weld. Unless, you erected walls and had sufficient ventilation to continue to work. If JB is using that as an excuse for limited production on #1 (as opposed to being down for 2 months or so), then he is making it up as he goes.
If the systems share piping, then yes they have to do the required "tie-ins" with existing systems. And they havve to establish a safe work environment, with sufficient shielding and ventilation. Of course, the piping has to be isolated. ANd yes production could not ne happening while the tie-in was being performed. We are talking days or weeks.
But then you can carry on with the rest of the construciton of #2 and #1 could be effectively isolated from it. Temporary walls could be erected and ventilation used to keep the area free of fumes.
I am not a welder and do not know whether the above (isolationn walls, ventilation would work). I don't even know who ensures that safe practises are followed on the site. I suppose that is part of the building permitting process. In the environments I am in it is a unionized environment. Workers have the right to refuse unsafe work. We have meetings and discuss safety every day at 7:30 AM. If you don't work safely you get written up and eventually fired.
My impression of JBI is that it is a bunch of guys trying to get a cylinder off of a truck with 3 forklifts risking their very lives, in case it rolls on them or something. A bunch of guys throwing it together. Under those circumstances... who knows what is going on.
One thing is always true... time is money. The basics of construction are that once the docision is made to proceed, they get it done as fast as is safely possible. That includes planning efficient use of the work area, having as much concurrent work as possible... use of safety shielding and ventilation, isolation, all of those things.
JBI sounds like a bunch of rank amateurs.
Bottom line... building #2 wold take out #1 for a month or two, nothing more.