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Airways magazine July 2008 has an article "Short Final for Airlines in Crisis," by Christopher Pittman, pages 12-15, available on line at www.airwaysmag.com. Discussing Frontier Airlines April 10, 2008, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and the failure/bankruptcy/reorganizations of Champion Air, ATA, Skybus and Aloha, Pittman writes:
"Many believe that there are more such closures on the horizon. With the U.S. economy, especially slowing, a credit squeeze, and fuel prices at all-time highs, it is a fair bet that only those with lots of cash will survive."
Oil <$120, maybe. Sound crazy right now, I know. But read on:
S&P's Energy chart (XLE) closed at $80.70 on 7-10-08 and has a bearish price objective of $69.00.
AMEX oil chart ($XOI) closed at 1,404, bearish PO $1270.
CRB Commodity Index ($CRB) closed at $448, MA(50) 435, (200)385.
Take a look at these charts at StockCharts.com and tell me what you see.
First oil needs go <$131.
If, if oil goes <$120, the bull market in oil MAY be over.
Way? How about a world wide slowdown/recession, in which oil consumption MAY slow down. What until the Olympics are over at the end of August.
Caveat: Middle East, e.g. Israel-Iran conflict- ALL BETS ARE OFF, oil will probably soar back to >$140++, which is what happened today, 7-12-08. Yes there is HIGH risk in projecting lower oil prices.
Do your own DD, GLTA.
as of June 3, 2008, Bonnie Mills, Ph.D. resigned as Vice President, Clinical Operations of IDM Pharma, Inc.
Form 8-K for IDM PHARMA, INC.
15-Jul-2008
Change in Directors or Principal Officers
Item 5.02. Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors;
Appointment of Principal Officers.
Effective as of June 3, 2008, Bonnie Mills, Ph.D. resigned as Vice President, Clinical Operations of IDM Pharma, Inc. (the "Company"). Jeffrey W. Sherman, M.D., Senior Vice President, Research and Development and Chief Medical Officer of the Company, continues to have day to day responsibility for all clinical operations activities of the Company.
On July 9, 2008, Dr. Mills and the Company entered into a letter agreement regarding the terms of her separation from the Company (the "Letter Agreement") and continuation as an ongoing consultant to the Company. Under the terms of the Letter Agreement, Dr. Mills shall be available to provide consulting services to the Company through September 30, 2008 , as determined and requested by Dr. Sherman, and is entitled to the following payments from the Company:
(i) severance payments consisting of nine months of her base salary in effect at the time of her resignation, less required deductions, paid in three installments over the period of six-months from the date of the Letter Agreement and (ii) COBRA health insurance premiums payable until the earlier of June 3, 2009 or the date upon which Dr. Mills becomes employed by another organization offering group health insurance coverage.
Comparing the top US Legacy Carriers cash/debt (from Absolute_power on UAUA Yahoo mb. I just bumped it to the top. I do not know the source of his/her information, but the AMR numbers are the same on Yahoo).
"AMR = $4.5 Blllion Cash VS $11 Billion Debt & $23 Bill Revenue
AMR has 145% more Debt than cash
----------------------
CAL = $2.5 Billion Cash VS $5 Billion Debt & $15 Bill
Revenue
CAL has 100% more Debt than cash
----------------------------------
DAL = $2.6 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
DAL has 250% More Debt than Cash
----------------------------------
LCC = $2 Billion Cash VS $3.2 Billion Debt & $12 Bill
Revenue
LCC has 52% More Debt than Cash
-----------------------------------
NWA = $3.2 Billion Cash VS $7.2 Billion Debt & $13 Bill
Revenue
NWA has 125% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
UAUA = $3 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
UAUA has 200% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
If Cash is king and Debt is Cancer then the order of strongest to weakest purely using balance sheets would be in this order.
Strongest to weakest:
LCC
CAL
NWA
AMR
UAUA
DAL "
Do your own DD, GLTA
Comparing the top US Legacy Carriers cash/debt (from Absolute_power on UAUA Yahoo mb. I just bumped it to the top. I do not know the source of his/her information, but the AMR numbers are the same on Yahoo).
"AMR = $4.5 Blllion Cash VS $11 Billion Debt & $23 Bill Revenue
AMR has 145% more Debt than cash
----------------------
CAL = $2.5 Billion Cash VS $5 Billion Debt & $15 Bill
Revenue
CAL has 100% more Debt than cash
----------------------------------
DAL = $2.6 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
DAL has 250% More Debt than Cash
----------------------------------
LCC = $2 Billion Cash VS $3.2 Billion Debt & $12 Bill
Revenue
LCC has 52% More Debt than Cash
-----------------------------------
NWA = $3.2 Billion Cash VS $7.2 Billion Debt & $13 Bill
Revenue
NWA has 125% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
UAUA = $3 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
UAUA has 200% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
If Cash is king and Debt is Cancer then the order of strongest to weakest purely using balance sheets would be in this order.
Strongest to weakest:
LCC
CAL
NWA
AMR
UAUA
DAL "
Do your own DD, GLTA
Comparing the top US Legacy Carriers cash/debt (from Absolute_power on UAUA Yahoo mb. I just bumped it to the top. I do not know the source of his/her information, but the AMR numbers are the same on Yahoo).
"AMR = $4.5 Blllion Cash VS $11 Billion Debt & $23 Bill Revenue
AMR has 145% more Debt than cash
----------------------
CAL = $2.5 Billion Cash VS $5 Billion Debt & $15 Bill
Revenue
CAL has 100% more Debt than cash
----------------------------------
DAL = $2.6 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
DAL has 250% More Debt than Cash
----------------------------------
LCC = $2 Billion Cash VS $3.2 Billion Debt & $12 Bill
Revenue
LCC has 52% More Debt than Cash
-----------------------------------
NWA = $3.2 Billion Cash VS $7.2 Billion Debt & $13 Bill
Revenue
NWA has 125% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
UAUA = $3 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
UAUA has 200% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
If Cash is king and Debt is Cancer then the order of strongest to weakest purely using balance sheets would be in this order.
Strongest to weakest:
LCC
CAL
NWA
AMR
UAUA
DAL "
Do your own DD, GLTA
Airways magazine July 2008 has an article "Short Final for Airlines in Crisis," by Christopher Pittman, pages 12-15, available on line at www.airwaysmag.com. Discussing Frontier Airlines April 10, 2008, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and the failure/bankruptcy/reorganizations of Champion Air, ATA, Skybus and Aloha, Pittman writes:
"Many believe that there are more such closures on the horizon. With the U.S. economy, especially slowing, a credit squeeze, and fuel prices at all-time highs, it is a fair bet that only those with lots of cash will survive."
Airways magazine July 2008 has an article "Short Final for Airlines in Crisis," by Christopher Pittman, pages 12-15, available on line at www.airwaysmag.com. Discussing Frontier Airlines April 10, 2008, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and the failure/bankruptcy/reorganizations of Champion Air, ATA, Skybus and Aloha, Pittman writes:
"Many believe that there are more such closures on the horizon. With the U.S. economy, especially slowing, a credit squeeze, and fuel prices at all-time highs, it is a fair bet that only those with lots of cash will survive."
Airways magazine July 2008 has an article "Short Final for Airlines in Crisis," by Christopher Pittman, pages 12-15, available on line at www.airwaysmag.com. Discussing Frontier Airlines April 10, 2008, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and the failure/bankruptcy/reorganizations of Champion Air, ATA, Skybus and Aloha, Pittman writes:
"Many believe that there are more such closures on the horizon. With the U.S. economy, especially slowing, a credit squeeze, and fuel prices at all-time highs, it is a fair bet that only those with lots of cash will survive."
Airways magazine July 2008 has an article "Short Final for Airlines in Crisis," by Christopher Pittman, pages 12-15, available on line at www.airwaysmag.com. Discussing Frontier Airlines April 10, 2008, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and the failure/bankruptcy/reorganizations of Champion Air, ATA, Skybus and Aloha, Pittman writes:
"Many believe that there are more such closures on the horizon. With the U.S. economy, especially slowing, a credit squeeze, and fuel prices at all-time highs, it is a fair bet that only those with lots of cash will survive."
JT, anyone, comments on WM? Was today the day the shorts covered?? 200M+ vol.
Thanks
Thanks surf. See my post re: Oil <$120? If oil goes <$120, the great bull market in oil, maybe over, for the time in being anyway. Obviously, we would need to see this before any big move to the upside in the airlines.
GLTU
P.S. Primecap (whom I respect) in SoCal is the largest s/h of AMR, 29.M shrs, +1.36M in Q1-2008. Does not look like such a good move now, but I believe they know what they are doing. Bow
surf, which airline did buy? Bow.
Oil <$120, maybe. Sound crazy right now, I know. But read on:
S&P's Energy chart (XLE) closed at $80.70 on 7-10-08 and has a bearish price objective of $69.00.
AMEX oil chart ($XOI) closed at 1,404, bearish PO $1270.
CRB Commodity Index ($CRB) closed at $448, MA(50) 435, (200)385.
Take a look at these charts at StockCharts.com and tell me what you see.
First oil needs go <$131.
If, if oil goes <$120, the bull market in oil MAY be over.
Way? How about a world wide slowdown/recession, in which oil consumption MAY slow down. What until the Olympics are over at the end of August.
Caveat: Middle East, e.g. Israel-Iran conflict- ALL BETS ARE OFF, oil will probably soar back to >$140++, which is what happened today, 7-12-08. Yes there is HIGH risk in projecting lower oil prices.
Do your own DD, GLTA.
Oil <$120, maybe. Sound crazy right now, I know. But read on:
S&P's Energy chart (XLE) closed at $80.70 on 7-10-08 and has a bearish price objective of $69.00.
AMEX oil chart ($XOI) closed at 1,404, bearish PO $1270.
CRB Commodity Index ($CRB) closed at $448, MA(50) 435, (200)385.
Take a look at these charts at StockCharts.com and tell me what you see.
First oil needs go <$131.
If, if oil goes <$120, the bull market in oil MAY be over.
Way? How about a world wide slowdown/recession, in which oil consumption MAY slow down. What until the Olympics are over at the end of August.
Caveat: Middle East, e.g. Israel-Iran conflict- ALL BETS ARE OFF, oil will probably soar back to >$140++, which is what happened today, 7-12-08. Yes there is HIGH risk in projecting lower oil prices.
Do your own DD, GLTA.
Oil <$120, maybe. Sound crazy right now, I know. But read on:
S&P's Energy chart (XLE) closed at $80.70 on 7-10-08 and has a bearish price objective of $69.00.
AMEX oil chart ($XOI) closed at 1,404, bearish PO $1270.
CRB Commodity Index ($CRB) closed at $448, MA(50) 435, (200)385.
Take a look at these charts at StockCharts.com and tell me what you see.
First oil needs go <$131.
If, if oil goes <$120, the bull market in oil MAY be over.<br />
Way? How about a world wide slowdown/recession, in which oil consumption MAY slow down. What until the Olympics are over at the end of August.
Caveat: Middle East, e.g. Israel-Iran conflict- ALL BETS ARE OFF, oil will probably soar back to >$140++, which is what happened today, 7-12-08. Yes there is HIGH risk in projecting lower oil prices.
Do your own DD, GLTA.<br /> P.S. I am a UAL baby (at 51! hah). Both of my parents worked for the "old" UAL. In fact my father worked for UAL for about 35 years before his retirement. They met and married in Honolulu, where I was born in 1956 (and got divorced when I was less than 2 yrs old), at the early dawn of the "jet age."
Could be JT. Some real nice institutional ownership here in ARUN. IHMO it is going to take some large, heavy hitting, institutional buys to move any stock these days. Da bear is snarling.
Looking for some kind of panic bottom on overall markets, after which the big boys move in and start buying, starting next bull run. Could be awhile, though. The darkest hour is always just before the dawn.
GLTU my friend and green screens.
P.S. Saw you dropped IDMI from board. Any interest still? EMEA decision due in September, with approval, or not, by end of 2008. IF, if, approval, IMO, we could see $5 to $7, from current about $1.75. Comments?
Also, what is your take on KITD?
SNCR has been beaten down and may be poised for run from $10 to $15, almost up $1.00 today on 1.7M vol!?
Nice post tzm.
<< It's also why Alta Partners bought up 30 plus percent of the company.>> Don't you mean Palo Alto bought up to 30%?
AP- Callidus projects 2Q revenue below estimates
Tuesday July 8, 9:18 am ET
Timing of booking certain transactions hurts 2nd-quarter revenue at Callidus Software
SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Software maker Callidus Software Inc. said Tuesday its second-quarter revenue will be hindered by the timing of booking certain transactions, which will lead it to fall below analysts' expectations.
ADVERTISEMENT
Callidus expects second-quarter revenue of $23.1 million to $23.7 million.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, forecast revenue of $28.8 million for the quarter.
"Timing issues negatively impacted license revenue as well as services revenue through increased deferrals and delayed implementations," Leslie Stretch, Callidus' president and chief executive, said in a statement.
About $2.7 million in license revenue contracts signed in the second quarter have yet to be recognized because necessary requirements have yet to be completed. Within the first week of the third quarter, $1.8 million of that revenue has been recognized.
The software maker will record about $1.9 million in license revenue for the second quarter.
Subscription and support revenue will be about $10 million, a 68 percent increase from the year-ago period. Services and other revenue will total between $11.2 million and $11.8 million, a decline of 11 percent to 16 percent.
Callidus expects operating expenses to range between $13.7 million and $14.2 million during the quarter.
Callidus is scheduled to report full results for the quarter July 29.
Now we know why we had to high volume a couple of weeks ago, a big holder got out.
Meixatech, did Walbert give any hints as to the timeline for FDA approval at the SHM?
Question:
Why would IDM sell itself before anticipated approval later this year? Surely the company could command a much higher price in sale after approval. Of course maybe IDM management knows something we don't, like another delay on the approval decision, which would take us deep into 2009.
This along with Walbert taking other CEO job has me wondering what is going on right now.
RE: PPS on approval, my uneducated guess could see about +250% increase max. Thus if IDMI is at about $2.00, if and when approval comes, we could see a jump to about $7.00, plus or minus $1.00. Conversely, non-approval, or another delay, we could see <$1.00 again.
GLTA
Thanks TZM. I appreciate you taking the time to explain the situation with Walbert. We should have our result soon.
Best to all.
Thanks. I guess the expression "If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen" applies. Now we wait. Best to all.
Re: Walbert taking other CEO job. I am scratching my head as to what this might mean for IDM and the company's future. Why would Walbert do this? Was he not handpicked by the powers that be to run IDM after the last CEO's blunders?
My gut "feeling" is that it is not good for IDM longs, but Lord knows, I hope I am wrong on this. If IDM is going to break-out later this year on EMEA approval and in 2009 on FDA approval, Walbert's move just does not make any sense to me.
Any comments? Thanks-
GLTA, Bow
Comments on the 3.1M shares traded today 6-27? Also about 1.4M after hours, with no price change.
Vodafone New Zealand Selects Callidus TrueComp Suite to Manage Its Incentive Compensation Programs
Tuesday June 3, 7:00 am ET
SAN JOSE, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jun 3, 2008 -- Callidus Software Inc. (NasdaqGM:CALD - News), the leader in Sales Performance Management (SPM), today announced that Vodafone New Zealand, a subsidiary of Vodafone Group Plc (NYSE:VOD - News), has selected the Callidus TrueComp® suite of software solutions to manage sales performance and incentive compensation programs for its 2,000 sales personnel, dealers and agents in New Zealand. Standardizing on Callidus' TrueComp® Manager, TrueInformation®, Callidus TrueAnalytics™ and TrueResolution® software modules, Vodafone New Zealand aims to maximize the performance of its enterprise and distribution channels. The agreement was signed in the first quarter of 2008.
Yes, thanks JT. Nice Ur group you have for us!
Since May 1, 2008 call to today 5/21:
DNN @$8.86, +35%;
FRG @$5.36, +34%;
LMRXF.pk @$4.50, +39%;
MGAFF.pk @$2.41, +31%;
SXRZF.pk @4.74, + 6.5% and
UREE @4.78, -18% (issued new shares).
should be IDMI Q1-2008 Institutional Ownership! sorry.
IDMI Q2-2008 Institutional Ownership: 34.5% (Source: Nasdaq.com)
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 25
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $53
Price (as of 5/14/2008) 2.11
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 27 8,674,125
New Positions: 6 266,025
Increased Positions: 14 6,041,948
Decreased Positions: 9 1,235,097
Holders With Activity: 23 7,277,045
Sold Out Positions: 9 1,235,097
Owner Name, Date, Shares Held, Change (Shares), % Change, (Shares), Value ($1000)
PALO ALTO INVESTORS,... 3/31/2008 7,372,409 5,195,709 238.70% $15,556
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO... 3/31/2008 524,800 430,900 458.89% $1,107
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV... 3/31/2008 247,658 42,859 20.93% $523
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMEN... 3/31/2008 146,457 146,457 New $309
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIA... 3/31/2008 93,836 0 0.00% $198
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 3/31/2008 75,843 53,700 242.51% $160
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVE... 3/31/2008 43,286 41,548 >1,000.00% $91
ROCK HILL INVESTMENT... 12/31/2007 40,000 40,000 New $84
WILBANKS SMITH & THO... 3/31/2008 32,410 32,410 New $68
LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD... 3/31/2008 32,258 32,258 New $68
J P MORGAN CHASE & C... 3/31/2008 21,541 0 0.00% $45
BEAR STEARNS & CO IN... 3/31/2008 18,800 6,800 56.67% $40
CREDIT SUISSE/ 3/31/2008 12,900 12,900 New $27
UBS AG 3/31/2008 4,204 2,473 142.87% $9
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EM... 3/31/2008 3,153 0 0.00% $7
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA... 3/31/2008 2,078 1,934 >1,000.00% $4
NORTH STAR INVESTMEN... 3/31/2008 2,000 2,000 New $4
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ 3/31/2008 492 0 0.00% $1
FMR LLC 3/31/2008 0 (100) Sold Out $0
NEUBERGER BERMAN LLC 3/31/2008 0 (10,000) Sold Out $0
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENT... 3/31/2008 0 (21,450) Sold Out $0
NORTHWESTERN INVESTM... 3/31/2008 0 (23,459) Sold Out $0
WEXFORD CAPITAL LLC 3/31/2008 0 (30,900) Sold Out $0
CREDIT AGRICOLE S A 3/31/2008 0 (133,384) Sold Out $0
HIGHBRIDGE CAPITAL M... 3/31/2008 0 (290,044) Sold Out $0
WEISEL THOMAS PARTNE... 3/31/2008 0 (297,189) Sold Out $0
STARK OFFSHORE MANAG... 3/31/2008 0 (428,571) Sold Out $0
END.
Great call JT. ARUN having a nice run!
Palo Alto holding 7.372M shrs, IDMI as of 3-31-08, +5.195M, +238% in Q2-2008.
Source: Nasdaq.com
There it is folks! Now, we wait.
GLTA
Good point, the insider selling of SNCR has been steady and relentless. I guess they knew something we all know now after earnings.
Thanks for adding as assistant, Surf.
Hey Surf, nice job on SNCR board! Pz add me as assistant, if you want.
I got into SNCR @ $15 back in March, 2007, 1500 shares in regular account, still holding them. Also had 1300 in retirement account (no taxes at sale), but sold to soon on the run up to $40+, still, make some nice cash on the sale in 2007.
The lesson for me here- the RED FLAG- was so much concentration of revenue with ATT, about 73%! Shoot.
Some people on the Yahoo mb think SCNR could get to $8.00, and will be dead money into 2009.
Any comments on future price action?
Cheers, Bow.
Thanks JT and sideshow. I will monitor these stocks and FRG, and keep the board informed.
GLTU.
CALD, Q1-08 earnings, new price target $8.00 a share.
AP
Callidus Software up after 1Q sales jump lifts results
Thursday May 1, 2:49 pm ET
Callidus Software shares up after 1st-qtr loss narrows on sales boost; analyst raises target
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Callidus Software Inc. jumped in afternoon trading after the sales software maker posted an adjusted first-quarter loss much lower than Wall Street had expected.
The stock rose 35 cents, or 6.7 percent, to $5.57.
For the period ended March 31, the San Jose, Calif., company posted a loss of $2.6 million, or 9 cents per share, compared with a loss of $3.4 million, or 12 cents per share, in the year-ago period.
Excluding one-time items, including stock-based compensation and restructuring charges, the company posted a loss of $100,000, or less than 1 cent per share. Revenue rose 13 percent to $28.1 million from $24.8 million.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on average, a loss of 9 cents per share on revenue of $25.3 million. Analysts typically exclude one-time charges.
For the second quarter, Callidus expects revenue of $28 million to $29.5 million, above analysts' $27.8 million forecast.
Northland Securities analyst Chad Bennett kept an "Outperform" rating and raised his price target to $8 from $6, implying he expects shares to rise about 53 percent over Wednesday's $5.22 close.
JT, anyone, comments on uranium-base metal stocks?
They have taken a big hit in past six plus months, as of 5/1/08:
URZ @ $2.63;
MGAFF.pk (MGA.TO) @ $1.84;
LMRXF.pk (LAM.TO) @ $3.28;
URRE @ $5.89;
DNN @ $6.52;
SXRZF.pk (UUU.TO) @ $4.46.
GLTA
http://www.businessjive.com/, re: naked short et. al.
thanks mud. GLTY. from tzm on IDMI i-hub mb:
In my opinion, those of us that want to be long IDM should try not to sell the week prior or the week of an EMEA meeting. I have no reason to expect anything to come from next weeks meetings because IDM has said many times that we won't get a decision until the third quarter. However, I feel that there is an above average chance that news surfaces around the timing of the meetings.
Those Longs who are nimble and can jump in and out of IDM might consider this if they are trying to time a big move.
As far as last weeks price action goes, I see it as nothing more than sideways drifting. The market seems to like IDM to be between 2 and 2.60 right now but there is a slight upward bias. It will take another accumulator, news, or a big seller for us to get significantly away from this range but this is just an educated guess of course. The problem is that things can happen very rapidly in IDM and so I've always believed in maintaining a core position.
Hi JT, thanks for the note. I will check RCH out. Still pretty much where I was last time we talked- hanging in there.
Do you think IDMI is going to tread back up to around $3.00 in the coming weeks?
ttys, Bow.
broke though $2.34 support today 4-14-08, next support $2.08.
GLTA
Thanks tzm, very interesting, you know a lot more about this kind of stuff than I do! Does what you describe always happen with warrants?