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Hey Aimster,
What a wonderfull day, -4% and the DOW at 7500!
A good day to buy more!
I see now why the Wisdomtree funds are not used much yet, there is hardly any turnover.
The Vanguard ETFs are better in that respect. They are low cost sector funds, but don't seem to be popular on this forum!?
I am buying a bit and rotating a bit.
Kind Regards,K
Hey,
1-End of week spreadsheet update show some nice surprises:
- some MA200 are broken upwards
- many MA 65 are broken upwards
All from a euro perspective.
2-When sector funds are discussed on this forum, some fund families are typically mentioned: ishares, powershares, wisdomtree.
Vanguard also has US domestic sectorfunds and they have lower costs. For an all-sectorfund portfolio a combination of Vanguard for domestic and wisdomtree for international seems to be a nice choice, as far as i can see.
However this is not mentioned here.
What is it that i don't see?
Kind Regards, K
Hi Tom,
It is nice to see you move into the Wisdomtree ETFs.
I have been buying into them as well since october.
The end of year dividends were very nice!
Your idea of rotating ishares into Wisdom makes sense.
I will start looking at that as well.
Nice thing is that Wisdomtree is using quarterly divs now!
Wisdomtree offers international sector funds. That together with for example Powershares sector funds would be a nice basket.
I am looking at something like that.
For now i have DON, DES and DLN for the US market.
Kind Regards,K
End of week
Hey,
this was a week of de-compression !
up 10%
thanks you , Mr Lichello,
Kind Regards,K
Hey,
I did my last buy, cash is empty.
From now on it is new money or margin.
Kind Regards, K
AB and CLMS
What i like about these stocks is their price instability and they also pay good dividends.
Is that not what an AIM++ stock should be ?
Kind Regards,K
Hi all,
I did my November buys(now on a monthly schedule).
The Lichello feature of exponential buys at low(er)levels is interesting.
There is still some cash left to do a few more buys, but cash gets tight.
All buys were ETFs.
I can also buy in the US now, so i am looking at US based vehicles (maybe NRO etc.), interested in the high income arena.
If and when this markets goes up it will be wonderfull !
Kind Regards, K
end-of-week
updated my machines at the end of the week.
cant believe some of the prices i see.
cash level at 30%.
still buying into dollar stock, i think the dollar will gain tremendously vs the euro, it is a vertical take-off. the dollar is the safe currency, assets in europe could get nationalized, take buffets advice and invest in US stock.
other buys i have done in ishares.
not using the 30 day rule yet.
over here we are getting close to the 2003 low. if we break that , i hope we will still have a market where we can trade)
Kind Regards, K
More buys today.
The US dollar is breaking out vs the Euro. In my spreadsheet it seems a strong move above the MA200.
So i did some buying in US shares today, for the currency benefit and to remove buy signals.
I have a few machines with buy signals left, i hope the market doesnt recover too fast.
For me the buys on friday were the 'super-buys'.
AIM is amazing. You always know how much to buy. After the Fortis knockout, the whole buying process went rather smoothly, and didnt require too much courage.
Maybe we get another change to buy soon. On a graph in the NYT i saw we are roughly down the same as in oct 1974. April 1942 was a bit lower and june 1932 is another leg down. Somehow i have prepared for that move it seems.
Kind Regards, K
Hi Aimster,
on Vulcan. Everyone would find the ideally logical price so why would there be a reason to trade?
If the vulcans would ALL find the logical price, they would know the future.
Even the vulcans cant do that.
Maybe Q can, but i guess even Q would have problems here apart from his timetravel capabilities. And even then...
When is it monday?
Kind Regard, K
Anniversary.......
10 years ago i bought this little booklet, ISBN 0-451-174530-4.
In the american bookshop in Amsterdam, an outpost of american culture on the european continent.
I remember being absorbed in Lichello's writings, calculating for the first time PC, buy(sell) advice, market order etc..
The next week my first machine was running.
Couldnt imagine 10 years ago that the book was so applicable for this point in time 10 years later.
Kind Regards,K
Hi all,
Again bought ishares today. No stocks, because the risk in stocks is too high for me.
Nice to see the Lichello effect at lower prices, each buy is a lot of shares , much more than in earlier buys. (Imagine prices going up!). This Lichello 'scaling' is very nice.
Basically finished buying for today, will buy more on monday if the crash continues and we get another 10% drop.
You have to love these times.
Kind regards, K
Market low...
Comparing to the 2002 lows we are roughly 30% higher now.
If you look at the inflation from 2002 to 2008 then it probably is something like 30%.
Does that mean that we are at the 2002 lows now(corrected for inflation )?
Then it would be difficult for the market to move lower.
Normally they dont correct market prices for inflation in charts as far as i know. It seems logical to do so.
Maybe we are at the lows then and ready for take-off.
Kind regards,K
More buys....
Executed 8 more buys today in ishares machines.
The prices drop really fast.
Estimating to the 2002 low, another 30% drop can be expected.
Which is roughly 6 more buys in each machine.
The way it is going it could happen in 6 trading days.
That i can manage.
What are the chances we will go below 2002 low and how far ?
I have no idea, but if the executional elite will make errors we could land anywhere.
Kind Regards,K
Nice day....
Had 9 buys today into different ishares.
Sending money from the bank to the broker for tomorrow ...
Kind Regards, K
What a day....
Full speed ahead for buying...
I am only buying ishares, too shocked by the Fortis debacle and what happened there. Not enough trust and too confused to buy shares in companies, anything can happen.
Already had 4 buys this morning.
Monitoring what is happening and buying all buy signals.
Kind Regards,K
Hi Firebird,
Read the message board and also the first message :
The Coming Bond Default Wave
Richard Lehmann 09.18.08, 6:00 PM ET
Forbes Magazine dated October 13, 2008
(I like the date, its next week)
Kind Regards,K
Massive defaults coming .........
How massive they will be ?
Will it be a system breakdown ?
I really cant judge it, because i dont have enough reliable information, i wonder if some people have a good view of what is happening at the moment.
My guess was that this is the last leg down in the bear market and we get base forming into 2009. Its only a guess, we would be lucky and have a 1.5 year bear market. To have a 3 year bear market we goto august 2010 and we could see an extra 50% drop in prices at least. The chances on this last scenario are getting bigger all the time. (chance = state of mind )
Can we buy ishares? What if Barclays falls over?
Kind Regards,K
Hi Clive,
Trouble is what to buy
Prices are getting more attractive, although to revisit the 2002 lows we need 30% more downside (using rough calculations based on local values). If we judge this event to be more 'stormish' than the year-2000 crash, an additional 10% downside is certainly possible.
I have been buying recently, buying for example yields of 10% or buying extreme deviation hoping for a bear market rally.
I was thinking of adding to RBS for example, but i wont do that after the Fortis debacle. If i buy into stocks, then i buy a lot of small positions, otherwise i use ETFs. Stocks can not be trusted, also how to select them ?
Some people here go 100% into physical gold now, and even diversify their physical gold over the globe, because countries also cant be trusted anymore.
At the moment i am buying all buy signals in my ETF-machines. They are small so this is a nice way to build them.
Regards, K
Game over ....
Here the Fortis bank is nationalized. What it means for shareholders is not certain, but it doesnt look good. I have a Fortis machine as well, so i am not happy. Nationalizing a company was something they did in the sovjet union, i always thought. This makes ishares look a lot better. Also considering to start US$ machines, because i dont trust the euro politicians any longer.
Still at 44% cash. It looks from this side of the pond that things are getting worse.
Kind Regards,K
Hi Toofuzzy,
Pulled the trigger today and made a few buys, even violated the 30 days rule )
Kind Regards,K
Hi Clive,
Looking at my spreadsheet the ladder seems like a machine that is rebalancing at some fixed price points.
A long time ago i looked at rebalancing in this way and concluded(not solid research but more an impression) that the 30% that AIM is giving between a buy and sell is a nice feature.
Rebalancing at fixed price points is maybe also a bit too mechanical. Rebalancing at resistance levels or 200MA crossovers seeem nice too.
Kind Regards,K
Hi Toofuzzy,
For most accounts i still am in my 30 day period. I dont feel like buying now, like to keep to once a month. All charts show massive falls below 200 MA and there is a good chance it will continue to fall. The only ones that bottom for me at the moment is US reits and french banks. French banks and insurance seems not to be hit by this crisis because they still do banking the old-fashioned way(not much credit used). US reits i have bought below the current price level.
Actually today i rolled back an AIM buy. I took the profit (not a full 30%) and can do the same AIM buy again now:)
Still around 50% cash and the way the machines are shrinking it could be more. Basically i am still high in cash because i liquidated machines at the high levels of last year. Also i set up small ETF machines so i could rebuilt those machines with bigger buys than indicated by AIM.
I have the feeling there is more downside so that is my bet now.
Regards,K
Hi Clive,
I played a bit with a spreadsheet.
When i use 26% after 3 sells the price has doubled.
Using 1K txn size however i dont get $3000 as stock value.
To get after each txn a stock value of 3K, i need to use $779 in stead of 1K. $779 = 3000*(1.26-1) .
This also works on the buy side, I try to always have a stock value of 3K.
When using 1K, i also sell out after 11 sells in a row.
Kind Regards,K
Hi Clive,
I like the concept, very nice.
1 - the distance number can be tuned to the stock, fund, etf etc.
Zid-zag analysis could do that job.
2 - i like to have more buys. even my dividend Etf is 50% down at the moment and still in free fall.
3 - maybe its a nice idea to add back the profits and increase the 1st and 3 rd number, similar to the PC update function of AIM.
this could be done by increasing the buy sizes for example, but together with remark 2 that increases the initial cash maybe too much.
it also could be done after each sell. the profit could be used to increase machine 'size'.
4 - time based trading is also possible. the distance factor then determines the amount traded.
thanks for sharing, K
no variables with which to tinker
26% seems a big distance.
would 3-12.25-0.5 also work ?
Kind regards,K
Hi Aimster,
I am not an user of AI, but i use all 3 averages in my spreadsheets.
1- avg updated on buy and sell. when it gets negative it often is a good time to liquidate the machine
2- avg updated only on buys. i find that the most usefull avg price, it also keeps track of the past
3- avg price of shares on the stack, this will be unrealistic if you sold a few cheap stack shares
I tend to use nr 2 the most.
Regards,K
Hi all,
Couldnt resist it, so i had a buy today.
Bought some Axa shares on the Paris market.
Still roughly 50% in cash.
Also used the new Independent Brokers trading platform for the first time, with $6 trades and being able to trade everything everywhere.
Current plan is to buy dividend paying shares.
One of the drawbacks of ishares is that taxes from originating countries are invisible to the shareholder and so i cant get it back from the tax office.(at least in this country).
So i thought maybe a restart buying shares.
Was a bit disappointed with the drop in the american sharemarket today, was expecting deeper discounts. The plan still is to be properly invested around first quarter 2009.
Kind Regards, K
Hey again,
David Dreman, founder of Dreman Value Management LLC in Jersey City, New Jersey, said investors showed courage by pouring more money into bank funds as financial shares plummeted. His firm oversees $15 billion and had almost 29 percent of the assets of its large-company funds in financial shares as of March 31, its most recent public disclosure.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/90999-who-s-buying-financials?source=feed
Hey,
http://www.etftrends.com
I use a RSS feed on this one.
Every day a few nice stories about ETFs.
Regards, K
Bear Market
I read somewhere that this bear market will last till first quarter 2009. That gives us enough time to get 100% invested.
I hope this outcome is verified by psycho-mathematics.
Kind Regards,K
More Buying.
The prices at the moment are a lot better than a year ago. So i fired a few extra shots and targeted more ETF's, a stock with 50% discount from the highs and a few financials with nice div percentages.
I got the feeling that indeed this maybe close to the bottom, some capitulation, not yet open panic.
So i have more powder dry, and i am afraid that maybe i wont use all the powder this time. So i am increasing the firing frequency a bit and shoot them rapidly dependent on their PC. I sold a few machines at the highs last year and created some sub-PC machines for which i feel the time has arrived to give them a full PC. When the machines are fully operational we can AIM them forward aggressively with a monthly bias.
Kind Regards,K
Thx Tom,
Nice to see the rel-val graph again!
The graph indicates that we should be buying. Good to see a comfirmation for what the AIM machines are telling us.
I remember that Mark(aptus) did research in the past indicating that daily buying was the most optimum. In such oversold situations it seems that daily buying would be preferable to using the 30 days rule.(I am still using the 30day rule)
Kind Regards,K
Hey Tom,
Interesting point, PE versus Interest rates. That would indicate this is the right level. Maybe we get a bit of overshoot.
I am also buying and using the 30days rule. All buy GTC orders I enter with a 'lowish' price, increasing the buy amount. I saw that i got ETF orders filled below the market spread indicated on the NYSE/Euronext side, so there are rapid spikes down.
Regards, K
Hey Firebird,
Grats on the 100% cash!
I am still at around 50%, buying and while the market drops the cash percentage improves, it is so nice.
The crude thing is interesting, don't understand it fully. Maybe the war games caused this rise. But then again we pay 1.60 euro for 1 liter, that is US$ 2.5 for 1 liter. that is roughly US$10 for a gallon. So I think crude can get higher, without really serious consequences. Would be interesting if the war games really escalate a bit.
I read somewhere they have to save Freddy and Fanny because too many institutions bought their paper. Too many second round effects.
The inflation thing is causing a rate hike here. In one month time we got 1% more interest on cash. Also the banks here need money and the competetion for funds is heating up. This is nice for the cash side of our machines.
These are interesting times.
Kind Regards,K
July buying
There was a lot of buying going on this last week. I needed all days of the week to partial fill all buying advices. As Lichello said, the trend works for you when you need several days to get those buying orders executed.
I have more advices to execute. The ETF advices i have done now.
The share advices I will approach in a very relaxed way, also need to determine what extra ETF's i want to buy. Could be US ETF's for some extra dollar-euro enhancements. (Cant believe the prices for books on Amazon.com i am buying, buying the books now I always wanted to have)
I felt some fear at the beginning of the month, but now I am actually buying, the fear has subsided. I dont even fear that the bear market will last well into next year, i am ready and prepared.
I hope the major stock indexes will add an extra 30% to the downside for some really great buying. The subsequent upswing will be sweet.
A lot of comparisons are being made with the 1930's. The drop in 1937/1938 was roughly 50%, so an extra 30% is not unrealistic.
When we sell, everybody is active on the board. When we buy it gets a bit quiet. I wanted to let you know that you are not a solitary buyer, we are all into it. Remember that we waited 5+ years for this buying opportunity.
That was roughly it.
Regards, K
July evaluation point
Congratulations to all US readers with Independence day!
I updated my spreadsheets this weekend, and yes, this is my first major buying point since the credit crunch started. Up till now i have executed minor GTC orders, sometimes more than 1 per month, but now the majority of my machines show buy advices. The buy advices are ranging from 5% to 30% of actual shares.
So this weekend will be used to determine what will be bought.
An interesting effect of the downwave is the increase in the cash/equity ratio. Makes buying easier, because i start to feel the fear.
I plan to have my next evaluation point mid-August, because i wish to spend the weeks in between on holiday in France. (european holidays and that)
Kind Regards, K
More machines get into buy territory this week!
Probably only buying once a month, waiting till July 5. Two weeks to determine what to buy. In machines with one equity the buy signals get bigger. Will probably buy ETFs and move them around to other machines.
interesting, dont know if this hit the news on your side of the ocean:
RBS Issues Global Stock and Credit Crash Alert
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
“A very nasty period is soon to be upon us -- be prepared,” said Bob Janjuah, the bank’s credit strategist.
A report by the bank’s research team warns that the S&P 500 index
of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
RBS said the iTraxx index of high-grade corporate bonds could soar to 130/150 while the “Crossover” index of lower grade corporate
bonds could reach 650/700 in a renewed bout of panic on the debt markets.
“I do not think I can be much blunter. If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names.
Hi Tom,
I just made a buy in the "Financial" sector yesterday
I made a second buy this month in ishares Euro Stoxx Dividend fund. This ETF has a lot of financials in it. This fund is part of my 'income bucket'.
This also means that i have executed a buy more than once per month. For a year now i have only bought once a month.
The reason, i guess, is that i get impatient with the market, it doesn't drop (or not enough). Also my cash/equity ratio is still somewhere between 40% and 50%.
I also try to buy more ishares-REITs through GTC buy orders.
Kind Regards,K