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Notice that etmm-the major mm manipulator for many months- has an ask on your level 2 far below any other mm,as they still do.
Many penny companies -if they had the incredible progress and irons in the fire that CWRN has- would be putting out 10 PR's month.
One penny company,with 140 million gross but only 4 million net( a net CWRN almost matched with this first shipment)issues several PR's almost everyday-overkill.
CWRN has obviously employed underkill-very conservative w PR'S-except for the 12-30 qtr forward looking statement-but even that was based on a contract in hand.
Maybe now that they have solid income they will issue more PR's. Given all the activity 1 PR/month does not suffice.
Given their economy of PR's to date they would probably wait to include that income info in a PR with other items-a PR expected shortly due to other soon coming positive events-e.g that financials thru 12-31 have been filed.
As masscommuter mentioned and I agree the 3-25 PR was a "partial" PR as if they were holding back in order to release additional info in a soon coming PR. Either that or very conservative til current financials are filed-given recent history.
Once income is actually earned interest groups can't shout promotion with any efficacy-and maybe CWRN will have filed current financials by then.
Nobody has even attempted to accept my challenge to find a current prospect equal to CWRN-I haven't been able to. The reward aspect of the risk/reward equation is often ignored. You can buy a blue chip for 5000 times the pps of CWRN and maybe make 10% in next year. One bellweather blue chip has fallen from 19 to 15 in last couple months despite reduction of debt-so no guarantees there either.
Projections by several indicate a possible one dollar pps in a year for CWRN-which would be a 4500% return from current levels.
Special interest groups are practicing their illusions and magic and manipulation but eventually market forces will prevail. Those who recognize this are holding. Due to the incredible extent of the manipulation we aren't even seeing a true picture of the daily market on this stock,as many posts have noted.
There are many upcoming good events here that could shake this loose from this manipulation-which is what happened within a couple days after the 12-30 PR.
For a company that has just made its first $7 million gross/3.5 net,and is capable of repeating that 2 to 3 times/month,I believe this is significantly undervalued due to that manipulation just as it was until that manipulation was temporarily broken after the 12-30 PR. Why do you think it gapped several days running at that time-both from day to day and intra-day.
And this time,once they have issued current financials(and all they have to do re that at this point is issue financials thru 12-31)the special interest groups won't be able to libelously cry wolf re a supposed promotion.
The earliest they could have received payment for this shipment was yesterday and more likely today-give them a little time.
Short sighted profit taking in which they are counting on continued manipulation -ignoring there are several events that could change the picture fairly quickly,;looking for quick fixes/promo plays(a zero sum game where only the most savvy 10 minute day traders profit);flipping(which hardly ever works for most).
Promo plays seldom work for most-so the best situation is to find an undiscovered or undervalued stock-either because fundamentals are just beginning or not yet recognized-which describes CWRN perfectly.
So best bet imo is just hold until any or all of the expected triggers of repeated shipping/substantial revenue/financials/ce removal/recognition of new mine/buyback/retirement of insider shares/surprise PR's/larger pool of investors etc kick in and overpower the manipulation. You know all this but for the others...
With this first shipment the debt is paid off(Bullit)and any restricted shares issued as extra collateral for the debt can be retired. Which helps pave the way for the ta to be ungagged(the ta won't like that and he might have been gagged at request of investors til the debt was paid)and for financials to be posted.
Bobs Mar 16 email to me said the port ore piles were growing daily in preparation for the next ships-they already had more than enough for 1st ship. That was despite the delays in getting the 1st ship in.
So they never stopped trucking and by various reports could have enough for a second KRITON size ship by now- according to pesqueros net loads /R/T times and last reported 18 trucks-18 trucks can deliver ca 3350 tons/day-over 70k tons/month,with the mine apparently producing 100k tons/month-hence growing mine stockpiles. There are occasional rain days that may slow trucking-but not very many in that semi-desert climate.
The Jan, Feb 2-28 and 3-25 PR's indicate they have been vigorously working on it.
They probably have the financials through last year finished and could post those anytime,depending on other things. Once those are posted,only 1-5 days before ce is removed.
PR months ago said they would have 1st qtr financials by mid April. They intended on posting financials once they had revenue to report. Mid-April would be really fast for 1st qtr financials(most penny companies take 45-60 days to post financials)so we will see.
The 105k contract was replaced by the current 32 million DLC contract.
Estimates of $175-184/ton for latest contract would indicate ca 173k to 183 k tons covered by the current contract.
They are very conservative-making sure huge mine stockpile of ca 150k tons before beginning trucking so trucking,once started ,would not have to stop,even if there were mine delays.
And the same with the shipping-making sure they will have more than enough ore at the port by the time the next ship comes in. Looks like a pretty good size pile of ore at the port for the 2nd ship already. Any guesses on the next ship size?
We don't know. There are so many things in process right now,and since PR has usually been about last day of the month,some have wondered whether there would be another PR a week or two or so after the last.
E.g when financials are issued,2nd ship announcement,another official announcement of buyback(indicated by recent email from Emily-IR Dept)etc.
Seems too much occurring for only one PR/month now.
Pesquero posted earlier today that the ship(now being full of ore)has left the dock. Vesseltracker(2 or more hours delayed)shows it a few miles from the dock.
They don't. That was to emphasize the ore at the mine is there to be shipped-not just look pretty. The mine output is there. I was emphasizing that there was nothing to prevent them from shipping 100k or more/month. If they are producing 100k or more month and the stockpile keeps growing logic indicates,as they have promised,they will be shipping at least 100k/month.
You might be right. But remember that ce is a pinksheet matter and was improper applied because special interest groups falsely cried promotion when market forces temporarily took this out of mm hands after the 12-30 PR.
Pinksheets told me there was no indication or even suggestion of fraud re the ce-only a perceived promotion(there was no promotion).
So there is no direct connection between the pinksheet matter and the SEC.
Since the manipulation by one mm has been unprecedented in my experience and the experience of others,the SEC could take up the matter-but I don't have any experience with them.
Hundreds of posts have described the process/ramping up and reason for delays.
They've had enough production for almost 3 KRITONS/month ever since going to a third night shift in mid January.
They easily have the capability to truck 100k/month by using 24 trucks,as per pesqueros net loads and round trip times.
They aren't increasing the stockpile at the mine just so they can claim to have the biggest stockpile of processed ore in Mexico.
Their PR's have expressed plans to ship at least 100k/month and once all shipping bugs are worked out there is no reason why they wouldn't do so.
As pesquero said mid Jan they will be shipping 2 times /month.
However if they go to 75k dmt Pananmax ships,that would be every 3 weeks.
They have a Documentary Letter of Credit contract for 32 million dollars. The KRITON was only the first step in filling that order.
They are still trucking-last we knew possibly 3300-3400 tons/day.
They have much more ore at the mine(probably over 300k) than when they started trucking(ca 120 k)so at some point they will add more trucks and pick up the pace.
The next PR,depending on how soon it appears,could very well announce the next ship.
Probably part of mm manipulation,especially when etmm is low ask. This has happened at least several times. E.g recently ARCA bid was above etmm ask. People have reported their ask slapping bids ignored.
People have had their bids filled at a lower price than they bid. See a couple posts below.
Whatever the manipulators can do to profit off this stock and discourage longs/nellies,since there are not many stocks with this potential.
The level of the games being played here only occurs when a stock has true potential. Special interest groups don't bother with dead stocks with no potential.
Its all a game of steal,kill,destroy,discouragement to cause longs and nellies to default to the manipulators-an age old game.
We don't know exact arrangements. Ship would obviously load in China before returning here -IF it returns here.
IF it is contracted to ship more than 1 load for CWRN,I estimated shipping times.
But the shipping company may have other plans for it and not use it -at least in the near future -for CWRN ore again-all depends on what and where the other loads and destinations of those loads are.
The important thing is the 100k plus production/month and ability to truck the same amount/month. So they can ship an average 100k/month as previous PR's have noted.
Presumably they will be going to larger ships eventually as planned. And either shipping a KRITON size ship every 2 weeks or a ca 75k Panamax every 3 weeks.
Normally equipment is secured by a lien on the equipment,so if restricted shares were used as an extra collateral margin of safety,logically they would be retired after the debt is paid off.
I've several times noted Bullit69's post re debt being paid off by the 1st shipload-but it does not seem to have registered w posters.
So if restricted shares were issued they should now be retired(returned to treasury).
Surrogteson explained that the investors may have wanted ta gagged until said retirement. If so this 1st ship paves the way for posting of financials.
There are also other non-negative reasons ta's can be gagged.
imo they are the most reticent people anyway and have never responded to my email inquiries on any company.They may have wanted the gag because they were tired of inquiries.
The pps was so low they could not have raised substantial funds via shares and debt financing is more economical-so IF 2B shares were issued surrogetson et als explanation makes sense-as temp extra collateral until debt is paid.
I talked w otc trading when ce was applied-see my Jan 13-14 posts. When special interest groups who were being killed by rapid price rise following 12-30 PR complained by accusing CWRN of a promotion,otc looked at gappinG price etc.which LOOKED LIKE there had been a massive promotion. But there was no promotion. Only market forces breaking months long unprecedented suppression of the pps by those same special interest groups.
Things required for removal-payment of pinksheet fees(done)and posting of current financials(in progress).
Check some of my past recent posts answering this. Last CWRN filing in 2009 showed 5.29 B but as itmd reminded in Jan from a Aug 4 2009 PR 3 B of those were retired.
Some were issued to help pay for mine but most of the money raised was thru debt financing and Project mgr says 1st ship will pay off that debt,as seemingly confirmed by recent PR which mentioned buyback on ship by ship basis,beginning w 1st ship.
We will know when financials are issued -expected in coming weeks.
I concur and hope our timing is right. The key is to attract a larger group of investors and different types of investors. Not just penny investors because once these regular shipments are occurring the operations and fundamentals will not look like a penny company and will perhaps be a penny company in pps alone as the market catches up and follows the fundamentals.
So investors who trade on the rapidly growing fundamentals etc and are not moved by special interest penny games will help break the long manipulation and allow market forces to control.
I'm in general agreement with you.
The KRITON is a relatively slow ship at 11.3 average knots(Azuma was even slower).
Large military ships can do as much as 33 knots,so they make these civilian ships seem like they are standing still-but then our aircraft carriers are nuclear powered.
The IOANNIS-a new ship- 15 knots.
Using the coordinates I posted a couple days ago,it is 5624 nm from Ensenada to Tianjin China-20.73 days each way plus port time.
Military ships can traverse one way in as little as 7 days.
But in final analysis doesn't matter because they are going to be using more one ship in rotation. Mar 16 they were working on the second ship,which hopefully we will see in a couple weeks.
Bizarrely and uniquely short % hovered often from 70-90% last fall for weeks or months-I had never seen anything like that-as many noted unprecedented manipulation.
Ordinarily,absent extraordinary mm manipulation,there would have bee a short squeeze many times-often when % exceeds 30%.
They were finally caught off guard by the 12-30 PR and thus falsely told pinksheets that CWRN was running a massive promotion in order to get pinksheets to apply the ce. See my Jan 13-14 posts and recent summation of same.
MM's have a dozen or more ways to hide or manipulate shorting,but rules were tightened March 1.
It will probably blow up on them again when one of many events-financials,ce removal,various pinksheet upgrades,investors discovery of substantial revenues and new mine etc occur.
Logically now that we have substantial revenues-we should not see .02 again.
I am assuming that one or more of those events will cause the mm's to lose control-just as happened as a result of the 12-30 PR estimating income.
After that PR the price gapped several days running-from day to day and intra-day. That was partly because price had been artificially significantly depressed by mm's etc since last June.
The pps imo is similarly artificially depressed now and would have risen mol steadily absent that continual mm/special interest group manipulation.
So once mm's etc lose control-at some point mol permanently- I would expect another mol sudden large pps rise.
It isn't just the events themselves that will do this but certain events will bring in a larger pool of investors to replace the nellies scared away by these continual perverse special interest group games.
They are producing ca 100k/month or more and have capability to ship 100k or more/month,as pesquero mentioned in Jan-that they could ship every 2 weeks. To do that they would have to use 3 KRITON size ships in rotation-or faster ships. 5624 nautical mile each way at KRITONS avg 11.3 knots is ca 41 days plus port time-so ca 47 day roundtrip?
Feel free to use the info in my posts. Hopefully market forces will triumph soon but I have been surprised by the resiliency of the manipulation in the face of such a transition to full production/revenue.
The inventory becomes account receivable at whatever point specified in the DLC contract. Presumably when ore passes over the ships rails(CFR) and the port authority issues the document supporting that fact to CWRN. Then CWRN presents that doc to the bank and funds are released from the buyers DLC escrow account.
It probably doesn't matter to us in what qtr the funds are actually released but it will be A/R this weekend,so CWRN could present the drawing doc to the bank Mon-Thur of next week and thus would be income this qtr.
tlc2 is the expert on the DTCC trade for trade thing. So tlc2 can correct me,but I think it had some worth -at least for this time-in partially suppressing some of the manipulation.
But mm's have so many ways and the imo unprecedented in influence and length of time manipulation has something to do with CWRN's imo unique situation. The only penny I've seen essentially breakthrough.
At some point in time-not too far in the future- I think market forces will have to trump that manipulation.
1st ship. 1st revenues. Substantial recurring revenues. Those things would eventually be sufficient.
But we also have a 60% buyback and similar retirement of insider shares.
A new much larger mine still not in investors sights.
Coming financials.
Updated pinksheet status.
And I may have forgotten one or 2 things.
So we have a litany of reasons to expect that unprecedented manipulation to be broken soon. All of these good things are being set up to come together in a rather brief time period-though its not the instant gratification some unreasonably expect.
Yes, I always enjoy other pennys statements of 10000% rev increase when they had no rev before. CWRN will be able to post high % rev increase at least 2 quarters running,plus the year over year for each qtr.
I don't think we have a true market situation yet re this stock.
A certain mm has been heavily manipulating this since last June. A manipulation unprecedented in the experience of itmd, myself and others,substantially depressing pps.
They temporarily PARTIALLY lost control when the 12-30 PR headline inadvertently brought in new blood(including promo players) and shook things up.
So special interest groups cried foul to improperly create the pinksheet status. As a result some PR's have had to largely focus on those negative things instead of the great strides being made.
So since June special interest groups have shouted fire so many times and manipulated so much that new blood is cut off as nellies huddle in their bomb shelters.
Notice that that mm is still heavily manipulating stock price. I think this extended manipulation-which exceeds any prior manipulation I and many have seen, is to blame.
Imo we don't have a real market situation yet on this stock. Imo the manipulation is exceeding any market force.
When the 12-30 PR came out etmm etc temporarily lost control. I think they will lose control again once recurring rev becomes clear and financials and ce resolved etc. There are other seminal events that can break the deadlock like the new mine. Any one of those many good events ready to break into the light of day-including recurring revenues-is capable of breaking this deadlock. Its only a matter of time,which is on our side.
Big boys are not moved but interest groups have scared nellies away since last June- knowingly cut off new blood-longs are already increasingly fully in so need the revenue or other events to break this stalemate to bring new blood-plus buyback will do that also..
Short term movement is irrational and not probative. Trying to get inside the minds of traders moved by games is a sure recipe for suicide.
A larger pool of investors will be achieved when any of a number of things happen.
Including word getting out that a penny company at only .025 is clearing net income of over 8 million/month(when they start shipping as much as they are already producing;
financials;
pinksheet status;
growing realization of the magnitude of the second much larger mine etc.
And CWRN is being conservative with PR's until the financials are taken care of.
Absolutely-one of the largest magicians tricks around. The processed inventory I would guess exceeds the market cap-perhaps by a healthy margin. Any experts out there re ratio of market cap to revenue,apart from PE?
Considering the amount of ore that will still be at the port after the Kriton is loaded they are probably in the process of working out details for a second ship. There may be a PR to announce some other things in a couple weeks-financials etc.
If so, they may announce the second ship then.
I suspect there would be another PR for the items you mentioned.
So much is happening now that one PR/month does not really suffice.
With the level of activity,some companies would be putting out 10 PR's /month.
Remember that Bullit had intimated an extra PR this month due to what we now know as the second mining project CWRN has started. But due to peoples probing questions that info was included in the 2-28 PR.
So they may also have another PR re the new mine down the road.
According to pesqueros net loads and roundtrip times etc they are already trucking ca 70k tons/month,enough for 1 and 2/3 KRITONS/month and,as predicted months ago via PR,are producing more than that-probably 100k tons/month or more.
So once any shipping bugs are worked out they should be able to ship 2 KRITONS or more/month,as pesquero said a couple months back,probably increasing the ship size so they can meet their PR target of shipping 100-105k tons/month,which they had predicted for the 2nd qtr.
I understand. No problem. But masscommuter has recently estimated price end of year at .24-.48,even WITHOUT buyback and he conservatively assumes over 4B O/S etc.
With a 60% buyback and a similar retirement of insider shares(which people seem to forget),that would more than double.
But you are right in that it won't happen overnight. There are certain seminal events that could suddenly elevate the already suppressed price though,as you have recognized.
There is enough to buyback some shares also. Bullit said more than enough to pay off the debt.