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See my Dec 17 post re retirement of insider shares and buyback.The PR's you mention indicate the company insiders had ca 60% of shares and implied they wanted to retain same % in relation to float. Buyback has only barely begun.
They plan on buying back 60% of the present float and by implication retiring a similar % of insider shares in a structured plan combination.
Thus there have been many estimates of market value months etc down the road based on such buyback as well as estimates without buyback(just to show examples)-but they will be doing buyback.
Recently Emily intimated there would soon be a formal announcement re the buyback.
SOP for successful companies w undervalued (in their opinion)shares is to continue to buy back. The big iron companies are spending 5-10 billion dollars to buy back this year that we know of.
Buyback can proceed despite lack of financials etc-just buying on the open market.
They want to get off this crazy pinksheet carousel ASAP and that necessitates reducing the share count in combination w growing revenues.
Sounds good. If they ship separately we will have different ships for both products on the high seas at the same time.
I know many are concerned by delays but if they compared other pennys they would see delays as normal. And where other junior miners are concerned CWRN has moved very fast since August. We could all probably tell stories about years of delays with other juniors.
Many have wondered what etmm's(owned by etrade) motive is in this extended heavy shorting since ca last June-shorting often in 60-90% range last fall. Imo they coordinate with special interest groups to push price down in prep for PR's etc.
I don't know of any other penny going from zero revenue to a potential 200 million plus revenue.
So their continued shorting/pps manipulation seems increasingly illogical,lending credence to theories of ulterior motives.
The good thing about all this drama is that it only occurs in penny stocks with great potential. Stocks where there is no potential and nothing happening don't usually have these battles by interest groups.
Your reference only gives a range of $160-170 for ca 60% ore and nothing else. There is more than one Chinese buyer. Its a sellers market so there is a lot of competition between buyers. I said "including the price".
Iron ore contracts are in flux- rapidly changing and buyers obviously don't want their competitors to know what contract model- in addition to what price- they are using.
One estimate by somebody who did a lot of digging is CWRN received $184/ton for 1st shipment. I estimated spot of $175/ton at time of the contract. So the price is somewhere in that range.
Website previously showed CWRN iron ca 61-67%. Recent reports indicate 59-66% iron BEFORE separation.
So do the math-we have a pretty good idea. If you want to add to the discussion research how much separation increases the iron content etc-there are always things to research when one isn't babysitting.
Blaming the "pumpers'' for what many have described as unprecedented mm etc manipulation for some time is just more manipulation. Remember the ce itself is the result of manipulation by special interest groups when market forces temporarily broke many months of depressed prices via mm manipulation.
Some have advised CWRN to keep ce to hold price down for buyback but I think that would be a mistake that doesn't count the costs of an extended ce.
Without the ce and manipulation it would be very logical for price to have jumped to .03-CWRN jumping over a healthy % of pennies with its very first shipment-though I have never made short term price predictions because there are too many variables short term.
Presently market forces are not prevailing but absent some egregious blunder they will.
I don't know-not my area of expertise. But the cost will become increasingly irrelevant,given the revenues which are beginning.
According to many peoples experiences during this heavy period of mm manipulation(last good chance to manipulate before financials etc?) we wouldn't know that. For many people have reported slapping the ask but not getting filled or getting filled at the bid(which can happen even without the current manipulation).
Plus buys reportedly outnumbering sells on some days despite the DTCC trade for trade.
ARCA and others have even bid higher than the ask at times in an attempt to get filled.
True. They noted in a PR or something that the price would not be revealed for "competitive market reasons." Most likely the Chinese buyer doesn't want their competitors to know the contract arrangements-which includes the price.
As I noted before a lot of these things are not some conspiracy by CWRN to hide these things but the desires of other parties.
Except for posted financials CWRN has more open communication with shareholders than anybody I know-so that is another indication that some of these non-disclosures are the wishes of third contracted etc parties.
The 2-28 PR said it would be resolved in March. Would've been nice if that was reflected in posted financials in March. There are 3 steps required to resolve:
1).Pay pinksheet fees-done.
2).Go back to the last posted financial(Oct 7,2009) and fill in all the missing financials since then. Logically they planned on posting current financials once production and revenues gave them real meat to post. So I would assume they've done all these missing financials and the 12-31 qtr-which is all they presently need to be current.
3). The 3rd thing is the letter from the attorney declaring that the posted financials meet the guidelines for current info.
Almost all pennies put this step off til the last minute-thus all the regular NT forms even for rare established successful penny companies- not realizing it might take a couple weeks for the attorney to get to it and coordinate with the accountant.
Bob was going to contact the attorney re this issue in the last half of March so I assume that is where they are now in the process-the attorney reading the financials,looking at the corporate info(not just financials),asking questions of the accountant if necessary,meeting with the accountant and or board members. That is all a normal part of the process.
As I noted even long established pennies who have been through that current info process many times put this 3rd step off almost every time-thus regularly delaying their postings.
Since this is CWRN's 1st time going through that detailed current info process it is not surprising it has dragged into April.
To my knowledge there is nothing that would prevent them from successfully resolving the issue shortly.
Several slices of meat. PR indicates at least 3 things. Possible change in PR's-except for the 3-1 PR required by advice of counsel,there has been only 1 PR/month.
Bob had emailed somebody just days ago that the company would not likely just PR the Kriton leaving(see a previous post).
And they didn't just PR the Kriton leaving.
We haven't heard anything official re the 0-3mm fines for a long time(or the 1-3mm fines for the ore under 1mm is waste according to the website). They are to be processed in ca 10 days and sold under separate contract. They are bagged in huge bags for environmental reasons. Originally they were to be shipped by container but last we heard to be thrown on top of the 3-18mm ore.
A separate contract would likely but not necessarily indicate separate shipping. If the buyer is different,would most likely be separate shipping.
This should not interfere with the shipping of the ore already at port or in general with shipment of 3-18 mm ore.
More excavation equipment is being added to increase production. We don't know what production was after adding the night shift under the lights in mid Jan but the growing piles of ore stockpiled at the site as seen in the pics would indicate production was exceeding trucking.
Increased production is obviously eventually reflected in increased trucking and shipping.
Bob indicated earlier that they would not likely PR just the ship leaving. At least not that event-as significant as it is-all by itself.
Given their economy of PR's and tendency to combine several events in 1 PR,I suspect they may be waiting for one of the other catalysts we've been expecting.
Such as announcement of 2nd ship, ce removal,financials(at least thru 12-31-the only financials presently required to remove ce),formal buyback announcement alluded to by Emily as forthcoming,possibly further info on the new much larger mine etc.
No guarantees on the timing but any of these events could occur shortly.
I agree. A broader investment pool has not yet discovered that CWRN has turned the corner to substantial revenues. When a couple oft mentioned catalysts occur-something we have been expecting for some time now,that broader pool should discover us.
Bobs email to me 3-16 confirmed they were well on their way in building the next shipload(s) and trucking was continuing and the port ore was increasing daily.
We don't know what size the 2nd ship will be. Seems at least a 2nd Kriton size load would already be at the port,but negotiations or other factors in dealing with shipping may play a role in calling the next ship.
And some have said they may use some of the Kriton revenue to "call" the next ship.
Presently the ship and some of the ship timing is up to the shipping company.
Given the standard learning curve re anything Bob will take all these initial shipping delays and glitches into consideration in negotiating the next shipping contract(I didn't say the next ship for I believe the 2nd ship is encompassed by the same shipping contract,but some improvements may still be made in dealing with further ships under the present contract.)
At present etmm etc mamipulation is still overpowering market forces and even hiding market interest as many posts have noted. Many delays and bashing re shipping and distractions re other issues also factor.
Need larger investment pool to overcome manipulation as we saw after the 12-30 PR. There are a number of catalysts already discussed,especially in combination, that could do the trick.
I see Bullit69 answered some of these questions ca 8:30pm Friday night.
The new big mine -for which CWRN will be the operating partner-is in South central Baja. Prior posts have shown it on maps. They recently contracted for mapping as noted in 3-25 PR and paid the 30k concession fee-as per 2-28 PR.
CWRN did apparently permit other areas besides Baja 14 as per ca Aug PR etc.
These handymax ships have their own loading systems but the port ore was at end of dock-is it too shallow there to load directly despite the shallow KRITON 6.6 meter draft?
So would have had to move it to hopper to use port conveyors.Since CWRN is 1st company to ship ore out of the port and the conveyors have therefore only been used to load much lighter agricultural products did they decide it was best not to use conveyors for heavy iron?
Nobody has answered these questions-apparently there is a company/port learning curve, for the predicted loading method has changed several times.
Vesseltracker.com(2 plus hour delay in reporting) still shows them anchored offshore waiting to finish loading. Somebody reported there was nobody else scheduled at the dock now so they should be able to get in and finish loading and hopefully leave tomorrow fully loaded.
Temeku reports only 7k left to load-so shouldn't take long.
200k .0212 at 15:58 or 10k form t at .0213 at 1600:33
Why would anybody accept a fake buyout. That was just another ploy by gamers to falsely paint CWRN-gamers have used every trick in the book to try to destroy CWRN.
Besides,CWRN knew the company could be worth 7 times that much pps in a year. By building the fundamentals,they could receive legitimate buyout offers down the road for much more.
The OTCBB is a step up from pinksheets(no info,limited info,and current info)and requires audited. Especially the otcqx,which essentially has as much transparency as big exchange but as you say is used by foreign companies but also some domestic companies like Adidas who don't want to bother w all the requirements or expenses of the big boys.
Just want to point out there is a big spread among what is generically called pinksheets-7 classifications with varying degrees of transparency(most brokers don't even know this -they know practically nothing about OTCBB).
So you can't make a general statement re risk-cant even do that for the big boys -how much is old GM stock worth or Circuit City etc.
CWRN's immediate goal -current info class,near term otcqb and mid term otcqx-as springboard to eventual big boy listing.
CWRN's unprecedented(non-financial-which they are working on) openness/communication w stock holders,including repeated independent and company pics of operations helps inveigh against risk as they build fundamentals.
Yes and since CWRN's project manager indicated the debt would be more than paid off with the first shipment,once CWRN is paid they will have some money to allocate to buyback and pay for 2nd ship-if they need such funds to pay for the 2nd ship.
PR's indicate shipment on a CFR basis,which means they are paid when ore passes over the rail. When that happens they receive a bill of lading and any other doc and present that to the bank for payment.
Yes-that is the new iron found on Baja South of the San Vicente River(the small agricultural town of San Vicente is about 12 miles upstream if I remember right). There is a concession corridor which connects Baja 14 S of the river w the current mining area N of the river.
I believe estimates of iron for N part of Baja have increased also though there has been no official publication of same.
We've seen a picture of Sharon w handheld device registering areas to be mined at Baja 14 at 66% iron. The website-that part of website has not updated since 2008 I believe-shows Baja 14 iron at generally 62-67%-though months ago the iron that was processed at that time was reported at 59-63% before separation. It would be interesting to find out to what % the separation process yields-that has never been revealed.
What 2B restricted-the ones reputed to be extra collateral for the investors loan and which will be returned to the treasury once CWRN is paid for the KRITON ore? Or the 1.75B insider shares -much of which will be retired in a structured plan in parallel with the 60% buyback?
And they haven't updated that 2008 info to include the new iron on the S part of Baja 14 South of the San Vicente River(noted in PR last spring?) nor I believe all the iron newly permitted on the N side of Baja 14.
We get it. Sell shares-then put out many posts to reduce price so can buy back cheaper. We get it. Age old story employed by many here. But doesn't credibility or honesty or integrity mean anything anymore?
Isn't CWRN going to make any long term holder a lot of money?
Going from zero revenue to over 200 million revenue once they ramp up trucking and shipping to 100k dmt/month,as they plan/have PR'd.
Isn't that possible 4500% return on investment enough anymore?! Especially when you cant find that ROI anywhere else.
They are not diluting and will be buying back shares on a ship by ship basis-SOP for successful companies.
How are we bagholders when:
debt/investors are paid off w 1st ship revenues
any restricted shares issued as extra collateral for the loan is then retired.
A portion of the substantial recurring income is used to buy back 60% of the float
Insider shares are retired in a similar portion in a structured plan as part of a purposeful effort to raise pps long term so they can escape the perverse games of penny land and get on a higher exchange longterm,otcqb short term and otcqx mid-term.
If u r not getting paid do your homework before repeatedly shouting fire.
Thanks balahi-this is a reminder of why Bob has been so reluctant to use an outside PR firm and has done PR in house.
Another penny I know of was essentially destroyed by their PR firm and is now in bankruptcy. The other company had low float .02 pps and issued 12 million shares to PR firm. One of the PR partners stole the shares and dumped them on the market as quick as he could-crashing the share price-which never recovered-and the company never even got the promotion they paid for!
Estimates range from 8 to 20 million tons total for the various portions permitted -see website-though totals have been updated since website..
They(project manager) have said enough loose iron in present area to mine for 2 years before they begin blasting. Grandfathered current mine under old cemex permit-which removed ca 200k tons ca 20 years ago(website).
Ca August they permitted another area higher in elevation on same property(Baja 14)which they would mine after current mine and 2 or 3 more areas.
The extra 1 million tons recently discovered is SW of present mine South across the San Vicente River but still Baja 14-connected by a corridor.
tlc2,with apologies I will answer.
They are the same thing. Mexican maps prefer sea of Cortez;English maps Gulf of California.
From Wikipedia:
The Gulf of California (also known as the Sea of Cortez or Sea of Cortés or Vermilion Sea; locally known in the Spanish language as Mar de Cortés or Mar Bermejo or Golfo de California) is a body of water that separates the Baja California Peninsula from the Mexican mainland. It is bordered by the states of Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Sinaloa with a coastline of approximately 2,500 mi (4,000 km). Rivers which flow into the Gulf of California include the Colorado, Fuerte, Mayo, Sinaloa, Sonora, and the Yaqui. The gulf's surface area is about 62,000 sq mi (160,000 km2). The name "Gulf of California" predominates on most maps in English today. The name "Sea of Cortés" is the one preferred by most local residents.
Don't know who investors are-they obviously have wanted to remain anonymous.
A lot of what conspiracy theorists attribute to CWRN as hiding something is due to others wishes:
investors etc who want to remain anonymous as possible reason ta is gagged until debt paid off so the restricted shares are returned to treasury.
ta who wants to be gagged because of incessant requests
buyers who want to remain anonymous and keep contract price private because of competitors
All indications are that vast majority of CWRN's start up costs were financed via debt-possibly w restricted shares as extra collateral-with the restricted shares to be returned to treasury upon payment of the debt-which should occur within dsys.
Now that they will have substantial recurring revenues there is absolutely no reason for any dilution.
Like many/most successful companies,they will be buying back(undervalued) shares as they have noted in several PR's. See my Dec 17 post. And retiring BOD shares in a structured plan to raise pps to get onto OTCQX and higher exchanges.
New mine financed either thru CWRN revenues or investors debt financing. 2-28 PR would suggest the latter w investors being paid back for new mine investment when revenues begin from new mine-same procedure used w the present mine.
The point of debt financing would be to allow CWRN to spend current mine revenues on buyback at cheaper prices-thus saving millions of dollars of buyback costs and to increase the current mines production.
Debt financing doesn't really dilute ownership -not like issuance of shares. In this situation debt financing is also more economical-partly because there will be substantial revenue within a reasonable time to pay off such debt -as is now about to happen for the current mine.
Many have complained of delays but delays are par for any company and compared to other junior miners CWRN has had swift progress in last 6 months.
As I said in pms in answer to your many pms I am not trying to be insensitive-I am just reporting what I know. One poster reported 10 million -I guess his presumption was a letter of credit- but that is the only info I have seen on that and it doesn't mean they have drawn 10 million from investors or 7 million-especially for THIS project-or that there is a 10 million line.
Their project manager indicated debt would be paid by 1st shipment.
If equipment cost was less than 3 million,w mag sep for 1-3mm ore used,that is perfectly reasonable.
Do we have any reason to doubt that?
Special interest groups were alternatively claiming equipment was leased or stolen or used-they can't have it both ways,can they?
At what point in time did CWRN and or their investors know about the prospects for a new larger mine?
Bob, Sharon and Matt have all been scouring potential new concessions for many months. Why???????
Could it be because they already knew backers were willing to finance other projects? I would say that is a very safe bet.
They were so busy w this startup there had to be an important reason for them to be scouring all over Mexico for other concessions. If there was no financing to be doing so why would they be doing so????
The 2-28 PR indicated CWRN's financial backers were willing to back much bigger projects. IF IF IF there was a 10 million line of credit from financiers(and I don't remember any evidence of that and I have an excellent memory),a good portion of that may have been allocated for the new mine or other future concessions.
As the posts you cite note,an email from Emily indicated the loading was interrupted Monday morning by a container ship w priority. Those in the know indicate container ships have fast 8-16 hr or so turnaround so I would expect loading of Kriton to be finished tomorrow.
Loading would have only taken 2 days with port conveyor system,according to the 2000 ton/hr stats,which our man on the spot had last expected to be used. But they used this other apparently slower method.
When pesquero saw the ship had left dock early Monday he reasonably assumed loading was finished-as by all expectations it would have been finished.
vesseltracker(delayed 2 plus hours)still shows KRITON waiting to finish loading.
As reported by pesquero etc, neither of these issues were CWRN's fault and won't make any difference in near term,let alone long term.
I'm not sure what the fascination w this issue is,but I'm sure special interest groups will dishonestly use it as more misplaced blame/fodder/stubborn manipulation/a perceived last chance to panic before income is in hand? What a destructive wasteful nonproductive way to make a living!
I noted these things to you in pm's in answer to your pm's hours ago. I still don't understand the importance of this issue to some.
It isn't going to change the balance sheet-it might delay income to next qtr but if its loaded by Thursday night its an account receivable at least. I don't know how long it takes to present the bill of lading to the bank to be drawn on the DLC account.
Nobody has proven or itemized debt anywhere near 10 million.
microcaps1 March 20, 2011 1:01:54 AM
Post # of 35716
CWRN's project manager "Bullit69" said in post 31525 on 3-2-11 that the first shipment will pay off the debt.
I had estimated the ca 27 pieces of equipment that I knew of at $3 to 3.6 million if all bought new(I think the 3 or 4 mag separators for the 1-3mm ore are used).
Someone said 1st shipment would bring $7.1 million. For the 42007 ton KRITON that would be $169/ton. I had guessed contract price at $175,which would be $7.35 million.
Some have had a difficult time understanding that net profit is about 50% in this bullish industry,so there is plenty to go around,especially with debt paid off from first shipment. The big producers have cash coming out of their ears so they are spending ca 10 billion this year to buy back their stock.
If you look at historical iron prices you see why.
Until 2003,iron was only about $28/ton. This year it has ranged from ca $162-191 or more/ton. Its not likely to go below $150/ton,for,as Agmetalminer said 12-13-10,Chinese domestic cost of production at $150/ton for the Chinese poor grades of domestic ore(averaging only 30% iron and declining)sets a floor for ore prices.
As pesquero pointed out months ago gravel producers make a profit at $15/ton.
An email or other source from Bob some weeks ago said the share buyback would be on a ship by ship basis-i.e,indicating some proceeds from each ship would be allocated to buyback. Don't forget about the similar retirement of insider shares,as noted in several PR'S(see my past posts).
Many people are reporting such experiences. The unprecedented mm manipulation(imo and that of others)doesn't even want people to see what the real bid or asks are.
Yes-they have repeatedly tried to lower price and create panic sells and sell for less than the real bids etc.
The current financials(meaning thru 12-31)are almost guaranteed done. But most penny companies wait til the last minute to get a lawyer involved for the necessary lawyer certification that the financials meet the current info guidelines.
Can't usually just use a regular company lawyer(specialization) and very few lawyers outside big cities are specialized in such. Then they don't realize the non-company lawyer may not be able to get to it for a week or so and that the accountant and lawyer have to coordinate.
So the process almost always takes longer than ANY of these penny companies calculated. I've seen penny companies- even the biggest- go thru that situation over and over ad nauseum without ever changing their mo. The companies need to contact and start coordinating the lawyer w accountant long before any suggested due date.
The ce is part of the special interest group tactics to block new buyers but the mm manipultion is a much larger issue.
I've seen ce companies pps increase 2000% in months-all while under the ce.
The mm manipulation is the controlling factor here.
I can't tell more than I know-there are several here more versed in mm manipulation/tactics than I am.
Many like myself have been mystified by what seems to be an ulterior purpose by etmm but we don't know what it is-you can guess the categories of special interest people who try to take companies down-like disgruntled ex employees/competitors etc,who might enlist 3rd parties in their agenda.
There does seem to be significant advanced coordination between special interest groups on this board and etmm,as if they are working together-maybe even employed by our favorite mm.
Others will alternately pump and bash to flip but also in possible coordination.
I've only been in pennies since Aug 2009 so this penny twilight zone has been a real education to me-though the cult leaders in the cult I grew up in by birth used the same fear/discouragement/steal/kill/destroy/manipulation tactics,having the same master /puppet manipulator as the special interest groups and their perverse games.
Market forces are obviously not prevailing right now.
As long as the earth is round you are likely to make many more millions on CWRN-so congratulations on your 1st million. In Jan jackg noted CWRN would make many millonaires.
But I am not well versed in mm manipulation-jackg worked for a mm but he hasn't been posting here lately.
Other than what I said I don't know where etmm gets their shares. I have seen them put out a "100" I need shares buy signal when they were caught short. They seem to often sell to themselves.
I was hoping somebody more expert than I on these issues would amplify/give their opinion in answering your questions,but since you asked me I gave it a shot rather than ignoring you.
CWRN's project manager indicated some time ago that the 1st shipment would pay off debt-I've provided link to his post several times-but it doesn't seem to have registered with people.
PR's seem to confirm,indicating some buyback would occur with each ship.
There are people here(where are you jackg)a lot more knowledgeable about the mechanics of mm manipulation than myself- I wouldn't want to think like a manipulating mm or special interest group because I wouldn't want to internalize.
But on level 2 for many months I have seen etmm purposefully raise the price to a high(often early on-sometimes w RSI of 100-at which point they presumably short)and then purposefully crash the stock(partly by triggering stop orders of people foolish enough to place stops on CWRN).
We aren't seeing market forces prevail for the time being-obvious when buys exceed sells 2 to 1 and still drops. At some point market forces will catch them flat footed like after the 12-30 PR.
I assume they bought in run up to the ship,knowing people would be buying then-with plans to push stock down afterwards -as they are doing.
One knowledgeable person relayed a dozen ways mm's can hide their shorting etc.
Those rules were tightened effective 3-1-11-but maybe etmm doesn't think the rules apply to them after breaking them for so long. Thats the type of hubris that has led many manipulators to a resounding public fall.
But etmm continues to employ in my experience and that of many others unprecedented manipulation-using CWRN as a cash cow.
Other than that there are several experienced people here who don't quite understand etmm's larger purpose/motivation-if they have one.
I hope they receive judgment sooner rather than later. A number of people have complained to the SEC about this manipulation-maybe if more did so the SEC would finally take notice since this seems unprecedented in length of time etc.
I agree that when market forces once again prevail the pps should rise substantially as it did in early Jan.
With CWRN's continuing progress,this should have risen substantially since early Jan instead of retracing. During that period processed ore went from 118k to now probably over 300k tons etc.
Asked and answered several times. They always were planning on becoming current in financials once they had income to show.
Current financials is always great but remember back then-during a bare bones holding phase when they were seeking financing-the filing of financials did not really provide the investor with any useful information-and was only an extra expense.
So most likely they have financials thru 12-31 finished already and are either dealing with some other aspect of that situation or employing timing vis a vis other events.