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VRA sars drug found effective in clinical study
Great list today Jenna
NT wins 1 $billion contract w/ verizon
jenna,
how do I gain access to the mirc and java channels?
thanks
MRK favorable fosamax ruling against TEVA
MRK favorable fosamax ruling against TEVA
APOL for a bounce today?
Automotive index has been doing very well. F and GM might be vulnerable in any downdraft
OVTI strong today could be ready for bounce
got it, thanks
thanx,
appreciate the work you do- particularly the intra day updates
Pardon me,
But didn't you have hrb as a sell set up with "anticipatory downswing"
pfe looks like it might have bottomed here
pcb to make bid for cpst
http://forum.clix.pt/geral/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=bolsa&Num...
apa br good traders in nat gas
great call jenna
I agree- looks to want higher
pfe down on news of fda approval of rival drug to viagra
sohu, china plays running this am
jdas breakout
Positive spin on rio tinto (gold miner) form goldie
"Mining stocks stood out, with Rio shares up 1.4 percent after it was singled out by Goldman Sachs as its top pick in the sector, while Xstrata led the sector gainers with a 2.3 percent rise.
"Investors are looking to get back into more cyclical leveraged stocks, and miners are a good way to play that," said one dealer.
"
urbn beats, raises and splits
MMM 2 for 1 split- should move tomorrow
glgs ah pop
they raised guidance 0n july 24th
utsi files for 500 million shelf oofering
amln positive diabetes type II med results
dfib moving today on good news yesterday
grmn showing some life- rebound candidate?
gpro new 52 week high
IMMR en fuego- won settlement from msft
oxgn getting to lofty heights
AIG as a short candidate??
interewsting read
THURSDAY a.m.
July 17, 2003
Fed-Engineered Markets
by David Nichols
First off, thank you all so much for the congratulations and well wishes that came pouring in. My wife and I read all the e-mails right there in the hospital while the baby slept peacefully next to us, and it was really wonderful.
The big story this week in financial markets has been the action in bonds. With Dr. Greenspan speaking in front of Congress, bond traders wanted to hear that the "deflation" gambit -- which had pushed bond prices so very high -- was still in play at the Fed. They were sorely disappointed. Yields at the long-end have jumped up at an astonishing rate. We were actually getting serious inklings of this a few weeks ago -- and that's why I brought up the idea of perhaps allocating some out of bonds and into gold -- but now it's official.
There is now potentially a very dangerous wild card for the economy, and for financial markets of all kinds. With sharply rising interest rates, the mortgage refinance credit boom is now likely to stop dead in its tracks. And a great case can be made that a housing-fueled credit binge has been the main pillar of this economic "recovery".
This bond action also puts the bubbly behavior of housing stocks at direct risk. Check, for example, the monthly chart of diversified home builder Ryland Group (RYL), which is the rival for any networking or telecom stock of the late 90s.
We all know by know that the market has to purge out excess. But it doesn't have to happen on any sort of schedule. The action in this group will be particularly telling whether now is a time of reckoning for the housing market.
Of course the econo-bulls will point to this drop in bonds and attendant rise in yields as direct evidence of the start of an economic recovery. They will conveniently forget that the prior blistering run in the bond market may not have been exactly predicting deflation, even though it surely seemed like it was at the time, which was only ,uh, 5 weeks ago.
This action in the bond markets gets to the heart of the dilemma now facing every person that wants to participate in the equity market going forward. We are now living through an era of incredible destabilization in financial markets of every kind. Big market swings are blowing up and "whoopee cushioning" down with regularity. With financial speculation the name of the game -- rather than actual direct economic investment and growth -- then big momentum moves can come and go with astonishing speed.
I think this action in the bond market is foretelling a similar fate for equity prices. The fate of the stock market rests on whether we're seeing a genuine pick-up in the economy, and a typical business-cycle recovery, or whether we're really in a longer post-bubble adjustment period currently financed by a massively liquid "credit-cycle." I think there is overwhelming evidence that the only thing keeping the global economy moving forward at a crawl is the U.S. homeowner, and our country's appetite for credit and debt of all kinds.
But the Fed's ability to jaw-bone rates down is now officially over. The specious deflation (wink, wink) argument is now history. The easy money period is drawing to a close. There now has to be actual deflation for the Fed to step in and buy the long-end of the yield curve, as the dollar will get absolutely creamed internationally if the Fed is perceived to be monetizing debt (creating new money to buy old debt) for the sake of the U.S. housing market. Gold and silver will be the safe havens if this scenario starts to unfold.
Anyway, I'm pointing out this macro-debate because there is serious potential for Fed-engineered markets to crumble if interest rates start to go up of their own accord. And that's what's happening now. We've got to know what's happening right now in the big picture, more than ever.
The S&P 500
The action in stocks lately has been particularly interesting for a fairly narrow trading range. The market has had some great recent chances to break down and to break out -- and neither event has happened. Both the bears and bulls have smelled victory, only to stumble at the finish line.
If you're the betting type, the odds-on play has been to bet against the massively bullish crowd, especially with the VIX in the low 20s. But that bet hasn't paid off. At least not yet. Absent a strong break-out to the upside off earnings reports -- which decidedly has not been happening -- then it's starting to look more and more convincing that the bullish crowd is at last feeling some pressure. The bar had to be raised for the second half of the year, and by and large it's just not happening. That's what the market is saying anyway.
The VIX is also starting to pop up. One of the things I've been looking for to characterize a true intermediate-term sentiment change would be a move below the recent VIX range that quickly popped back up on a flurry of white candles. That's what we're seeing now. We need to see more of this to be confident that the trend is really changing, but this is what the start of an intermediate downtrend often looks like on the VIX.
If the market is going to retain its bullish "buy-the-dips" bias, then today is the day to buy this recent dip. If the SPX drops decisively under 985, then the bullish forces will have missed the easy oversold buy point, and the market may be tipping its hand that a much bigger drawdown is in the works.
Great information- where did you find this?
thanks
eddy
rumor that imax might be bought out by warner bros(division of aol)
crazy spreads on usna
"I cannot be responsive to your request for quite a number of reasons, the cardinal one, time limitations and my dislike of excess verbiage."
Zeev
Translation: Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain
xmsr popping on news that wal mart will sell its radios
Nice heads up on macr thanks