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Any thoughts on news mp may put out in the coming days?
You think cfp for q3? Is g&a maxed upto $120 mill rev? Or is distribution cost going to kill q3?
To be direct: aware of % and change over time.
I don't think it affect sales and is exponentially more profitable.
A good question is if somebody buys via mp website or UFC website who is considered the customer....what is bodybuilding.com really bringing to the table at this point and time?
Bodybuilding has deceased in% sales and if they get credit for everything from mp and UFC and who knows where else??how much affect is that??
I think that is correct down from 51% in '10 to 45% in '11 to a current 35%....
Possible a slight decrease in sales, but "I" would assuredly say sales are still up, but maybe down a few% in regards to growth. But now they have data to support decisions. I would prefer discounts of buy 2 get 1 free rather buy 2 get 2 free. I think it is a conscious decision on what it cost to gain NEW customers via bodybuilding vs what it cost to maintain their ( cost is ads, discounts, freebies, etc).
For example I'd based on data they said the UFC agreement isn't producing enough traffic/revenue then they should drop it(just an example as now they have data and an accountant...I think it is good)
I also noticed the %increase in other customers...its interesting to compare the change via the total increase in rev at the same time.
I tell myself this- 1.6 deffered rev, stock buy back, etc from q2....if rev has its worst % gain in mp history of only 300% (only scary because it's still a big number even though it's worst ever) they would still record $500k profit....unless there is a hidden endorsement, research, dr.phil, can't find any excuse, etc??
So who sold today? On no volume. Not even 10% up on the lowest low of the last 9 months. No news. Solid bids getting higher and higher with each trading day. News (good or bad) is around the corner.
Anybody here sell? Care to explain why?
If you're going to come out and say something like that without any reason or info....you should atleast sell some shares so that we know you got out and dropped the pps.
To give you benefit of the doubt....where did you get this info (if you googeled it...then where)?
I simply looked at the filing and then clicked the attached file within the "EFFECT" Notive of Effetiveness and it went to the S1A.
How about this article which states why the notice wasn't available via edgar last Friday:http://www.thecorporatecounsel.net/Blog/2006/06/notices-of-effectiveness-now-online.html
Quote:Who could possibly care about all this? Well, I guess it's a big deal for the associates and paralegals who no longer will have to try to track down paper notices for a deal closing; they often were mailed by the SEC weeks and weeks after effectiveness in the past.
Enlighten me where your info came from....I'm on the bid ahead of you I assume??
From what i understand the filing is just stating the SEC has reviewed the S1A that was put out by MP....basically the SEC is saying yes you can proceed with the with the distribution of shares that were mentioned in the S1A.
So last weeks volume was NOT dilution as they couldnt even sell yet....it goes up from here...maybe a scare or 2 on the way....but it goes up.
The negative comments on this board may be an attempt to scare more shares from your hands.
But that's just how I understand it.
Anybody thought the apparel could be then entity that goes bankrupt? Ever think maybe they are smarter than all thought that mp appeal is where the write of advertising and eventually bank rupt it or sell if for more?
It could be keeping our advertising cost down?
Does anybody know? Maybe it will come back on the books and well see a 4 mill advertising cost?
Just saying for all the negativity it could be genius; but is it??
Anybody thought the apparel could be then entity that goes bankrupt? Ever think maybe they are smarter than all thought that mp appeal is where the write of advertising and eventually bank rupt it or sell if for more?
It could be keeping our advertising cost down?
Does anybody know? Maybe it will come back on the books and well see a 4 mill advertising cost?
Just saying for all the negativity it could be genius; but is it??
May I ask why the estimate of only 15 mill for each q3 and q4?
That would put this q at their worst growth% of every single comparison for q3 in their history.
Honestly I would be a bit worried myself if anything less than 20mill shows...depending of course on a few things like deferred rev.
I thought there should be a different "excuse" to not be be cfp???
If "I" read correctly the offering included all compensation for the next 60days. I also read that all new space was warehouse distribution and office space....not a new science center and with all compensation included in offering that shouldn't be the issue....or did you see something I didn't?
That's kinda what I'm looking for, but haven't found....
Did they record this as a major increase last year at this time?
Cause I agree that they may find a way to lose money, but I've always been able to say I should have known about it.....
....well I think I'm better at my research and cant seem to find? Can you?
With the many that think this stock is crap....can somebody please reply to me on how they won't be cfp?
Where is all the honest opinion of value? Why no cfP this q? I expected many, yet not one reasOn
Blindsided never...lost, yes.
Learning quickly-red sucks
Cfp q3 positive is in play?
If it means a pump?
If it means better financing?
If pps sustains?
If diltutiin is minimized based on bonuses because pps is up?
Continue by back? During pump?
Deferred rev?
Inventory?
I would like an updated shareholder count? Has it decreased even further?
Same thing I always do....try md figure it out before running aimlessly.
I don't know if you read my prior post, but they could have cfp last quater if the just didn't file differed revenue (it was the first time in their history they were transparent in this category)
Plus some othe info in the they could have easily posted a $500k operating profit.
So I will definitely look at deferred rev, increase in cash reserve fund (how
Much is being paid in cash)....and wait to see what cash is on hand.....because based on my prelim thoughts of a need for cash I had expected them to dilute significantly more...why didn't they?
To be honest in this case I am with Hunterdog....to some degree. Sales should be a min of 21 mill (if not that woul worry me the most), but assuming this minimum they should take in 1mill cfp....with a max of 43 mill rev and 3+ mill cfp
Now this could be a reason to say that aren't cfp again....but how will they do it? (if they do)
This would be reason to keep the pps down....then they can bonus themselves more shares at the end of fiscal real....the bonuses are share based on pps....so at .10 the only would only get 10% of their bonus in regards to shares.
....but this keeps them from ever getting out of the whole they are in...
Personally I think the time is now....can't see how they can't be cfp this q??
Keith G, I still waiting for the sabermetrics product and apparel?
And you extra pay-day.
They were only 1.6 million short of operating profit...which for the first time, in mslp history, they recorded deferred revenue correctly on the balance sheet (it was 1.6 million)....which means if they used their previous aggressive/overstatement of accounting procedures they would have reported a cfp Q2.
In addition the set aside $50k in a cash reserve account. Treasury share a count....while spending $460k on the share buy back and have inventory of $219k.
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Based on above They could have easily showed 1mill in q2.
My questions:
why didn't they?
What will be a possible explanatation if they don't this q?
I have yet to find an answer?
That is unless the electric company accepts mslp shares for payment? Sarcasm
Do you have opinion on cfp or rev? What big expense I may be looking over?
I thought they stated that all compensation due over the next 60 days was included in the offering of 305mill shares (in which 240 mill had already been issued)?
I see how that is an option, but for you to say of course...I'm curious to why? Like there is not other option?
They were only 1.6 million short of operating profit...which for the first time, in mslp history, they recorded deferred revenue correctly on the balance sheet (it was 1.6 million)....which means if they used their previous aggressive/overstatement of accounting procedures they would have reported a cfp Q2.
In addition the set aside $50k in a cash reserve account. Treasury share a count....while spending $460k on the share buy back and have inventory of $219k.
Am I getting closer or farther? What am I still missing?
My guess is minimal so far....deals like this usually take 6 months to a year to come to fruitition.
I'm tryin to figure out 2 things myself:
1. What is surprise bill, endorsement, salary is due q3?
2. What made sales almost double for q3 last year? Q3 last year was just below q1 and q2 combined.
You think year over year is negligible? It's all new deals since his forecast of 75 mill? No way we can guess to stay in the 500% increase year over year on Q's? What about change in increase last year q1 and q2 combined were only 85% of q3?
If you go with 400% year on Year alone you still end up with 19 million ish after discount? Thats my worst case other that contract were annual paid in q1?
I'm going with coke. My long shot guess....
We could be optomistic and say they'll hit another number like 53milliin less discount of 13mill and we got 4mill...
Questions I have are when customers make buys? Like how many times a year does "Otagon Brasil" Buy? I know they sell about 750k a year alone? When does there intl distributor buy? Is it always q3? Q3 last year was up about 85% of q1 and q2 combined?
10/14.....should always be 45 days after close
I think he is right on, as I see almost the exact same as him with the exception of I think we'll hit 22mill rev after discounts.
Problem is I seem to alway be off because of something I should have found that was public info - that I just overlooked.
I'm trying to find the whole in this q forecast as well and the only place I think it may be hiding is in new hire salaries or in extensive discounts.
Also hunter, great post on g&a, that's part of my industry is at a rock bottom....many can't understand cash flows vs profit and have underbid labor to the point where the make less as an owner operator than they would working for another company....that's why I shrank my biz and outsource...lots oft competition will do work much less than my own cost would be (it's sad though....because I'm in a local labor intensive industry)
Crossroad, good breakdown...do you know when the new employees were added...that's where I'm guessing I missed an increase in g&a. They cut advertising dramatically since last year, but it was more of a change in records.
I truely foresee 21 to 22 mill after discounts for this q. If you look at sales. If you compare with previous years sales it should be around 27 less discounts (the extra unknown).
I'm trying my hardest to find a reason why they won't be cfp this quarter and I can't find it.
True...forgot about the extension, just remembered NO "E" was added.
This may explain....it seems to be the reason for the 10Q/A last night as well. If i were good enough at locating public information I would have seen this coming.
http://rrd1.typepad.com/xbrl_blog/2012/08/use-it-or-lose-it-the-grace-period-for-tier-3-filers.html
What also makes me think they "sand-bagged" financials to some degree is among many, but a few stand out.
People have mentioned they burned threw Cash $600K to $200K...Well what about the inventory, Reserve Cash Fund, Stock repurchased...That adds an additional $600K CASH if they did NOT execute.
Now the Question for me is why the above instead of showing a profit? I'm assuming an effort to NOT only clean the books,, but to create a more balanced internal portfolio.
I still can't locate what suprise cost (suprise for me as I can't figure it out) will keep MP from posting a Q3 operating profit.
Which late filing are you referring too? The Q1 I assume?
But why was that a suprise with all the changes they were making for accounting procedures??
Why would you spread trade under VFIN? especially with the risk that other sellers (all those mentioned in the S1A) have tons of common stock; thus they "could" dump all over you?
Have you been hired to replace Pondell as Investor Relations or are you just an addition?
I Should have been clearer. It's in no way off the block...I was getting at the only thing I got from the 10qa is they added interactive data? Did I miss some thing in the file?
It's obvious pps is tanked.
Why is it tanking? Because they filed interactive data?
Who was buying all the dumping in blocks of $1 to $5k at a time?
Just ftell me why?
Edit: 10q a is nothing. It may be used a an attemT for a bounce, but it should have been expected...it was a foreseen requirement to the public.
http://rrd1.typepad.com/xbrl_blog/2012/08/use-it-or-lose-it-the-grace-period-for-tier-3-filers.html
But I can't don't understand the exhibit 101? That's what was required.
But what is in the attached docs?
I'm aware of that....just can't tell what has been amended/added.?
Just looked like a complete text document
What the heck , 10qA, is this mean??
Long time....mate. Well they have got the dump part down well so far....I think this could be a dump & pump. And that's probably why I'm here still.... In red
They converted a ton of debt to common stock and have warrants issued in q1 that had six months on them (problem is I haven't figured out if they were cancelled for common stock)??
What keeps me optomistc (on the trading side); how massive of a pump is needed to move these shares?
Whether or not it was selling it sure was supposed to look like it....
Have you been able to find anything the need to pay this month that would prevent them from being operating profit....going through filings and haven't yet found it yet....if anything I found a positive and that was last years advertising should decrease enough this year to cover exec cash salaries (stock has already been accounted for).
I personally "thought" it looked like 80% buying.
Your thoughts on todays activity? What about CDEL testing waters then getting out of the way?