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The mathematics guy est 184/ton K price-I est 175. At an avg premium grade of ca 200/ton,you estimate only 130 before mining expenses?
I doubt that trucking expenses would be 50/ton,since we believe we know the other expenses from good sources.
I don't remember who said 180/ton publicly but that figure seemed to be confirmed in our qroup emails when the mathematics guy among us said u had said 180k or 80 k and then he took the measurements you apparently got from Bob for the size of the ore pile and computed 180 k tons from those measurements.
He reported that to us in our group emails and when at that time those figures were not questioned by you we took that as confirmation,given the info we had at the time. Just to let people know that there are those of us who are honestly reporting what we believe to have been confirmed from more than one source unlike the shout fire the ship has sunk group.
We've been over this a 100 times. The sub was only created by CWRN to comply w Mexican law,is wholly owned by CWRN,is private-meaning has no publicly issued shares of its own,which means the only place the revenue can go is to CWRN shareholders in a society that recognizes the rule of law,contracts,trusts and private property rights.
But you will be visiting the mine in a few weeks to give us onsite intel.
There are certain groups who intimate CWRN has never shipped so they are not yet aware of that news. So thanks for trying to educate.
I estimated spot at time of contract at 175/ton. Our mathematics guy believes contract price was 184/ton. Spot did get up to 191 during that period.
According to the article in the stickies posted by Cohibaman there is a premium of 5/ton for every % over the benchmark of 62%. CWRN's ore on Baja 14 has tested from 59-67% BEFORE separation ever since 2008.
Older info on the website indicates separation increases grade 3-7%. So an average of 63% plus 3-7% would be 66-70% iron or 20-40 premium /ton,which helps pay for the usual junior miner costs like royalties to the surface landowner.
Agmetalminer 12-13-10 said the internal Chinese cost of production for the very poor grade of Chinas domestic ore(averaging ca 30% iron and as low as 12%)of 150/ton sets the floor for iron prices.
So all this seems to be confirmation of what Bob apparently told temeku-130 profit/ton.
Yes,Bullit said the 1st ship would more than pay the debt. After visiting the mine w Bob temeku said the profit was 130/ton for the KRITON. Which for 38524 tons would be over 5 million profit. The article in the stickies posted by Cohibaman shows most junior miners cost is 20-50/ton and that some have negative cost because of premium ore.
Makes sense. Also applies to a number of other possible news items-finishing of processing of enough 1-3mm ore to start trucking(I'm not sure we would know when trucking starts unless the company notifies us)or even of new shipping contract/name of next ship etc/news re new concession etc.
We don't know how much ore is at site-either 1-3mm or 3-18 mm-so awaiting info on that also.
Bob-as noted by 4-8 post in the stickies-has been understandably displeased by games played here after the unprecedented amount of time he has spent for a long time handling PR duties and answering 1000's of emails.
People are never happy it seems no matter how much communication-so he has been relatively quiet the last month and chosen to operate thru Emily-so letting him do his thing and concentrate on the mining.
Yes- and to answer others. CWRN already meets the capitalization etc requirements etc for the OTCBB otcqb. All they need is to become SEC reporting w financials. They don't need to R/S for otcbb and have said thru others they wouldn't.
Look at other pennys-NT forms-late filings abound-companies often taking 60-120 days to file after a due date.
When CWRN forecast Apr 15 they expected revenues and didn't expect to have to deal w all the extra necessary work resulting from special interests.
And had never been thru the rather involved vetting for current info process so waited figuratively speaking til last minute to get the lawyer involved in that process-that is SOP for pennies-even those who have repeatedly been thru the process before.
NONE of the other pennys I'm following who have filed NT forms Apr 1 because their financials were due Apr 1 have yet filed-and CWRN only forecast Apr 15 -not Apr 1.
Just providing perspective-people expecting 100 dollar /share performance for 1 cent pps-risk vs reward. None of those companies have given a valid excuse for late financials.
Also-as pesquero posted in Jan they have the ABILITY-with the roundtrip times supplied by truckers and net loads- to truck enough to ship every 2 weeks(which with the figures supplied they COULD do with 24 trucks). It doesn't take 45 days as someone claimed to truck a shipload IF they follow those logistics.
Good things are coming to those who wait. Last PR less than one month ago.
We've had many pics since then-see Apr 26 pics on website plus Apr 12 tour on website and the blogs.
Many have noted a number of good news events that will likely occur in the near future. We know those things are in process
The bad things-manipulations /games have been played-the good things remain.
There obviously have been good things already.
Since last August millions in equipment and inventory and first ship/revenues.
Thats incredible progress for a junior miner-most of which spend years in the exploration phase without any production and w infrequent news-sometimes a year at a time without news or ability to email the company etc-so comparatively we are in excellent shape. So its all a matter of time perspective.
I think Bullit was there but he doesn't post often-so,that was some years ago in the Philippines. There were access/road costs/environmental problems I believe. For some reason its in the picture section but not in the lists of former and present mines section. You may already know all that but for others....
Can't say for sure whether the pics were there before but would think so,since they haven't had any activity re that project for some years.
Bob,Sharon and Matt have all been scouting additional concessions at least since they obtained financing last summer,but they are concentrating on Mexico now(as I'm sure you know but for others...).
They previously showed us pics of drill holes and have reported drill holes around the site executed by the cement company. The cement company also did some deep trenching.
The varied altitudinal geography also helps by showing ore at many altitudes.
Bob has reported purchasing the drilling etc results from CEMEX.
Not proof but the entire mountainous backbone of N. Baja is shown as a mineralized zone in reports and maps and CWRN's Baja concessions are surrounded by other iron concessions. The entire mountainous backbone is in concessions though CWRN is the 1st to ship minerals from Ensenada Port.
But there has been no 43-101 compliant reports.
As the poster noted:
"About Mr. Cotton saying we are not going to make any moves on the stock until July or Aug., Do you think just maybe he could be responding in regards to a market change."
So this could refer to anything from a cusip change(PR'd several months ago)or an uplisting(also PR'd last fall).
In light of previous reports by Bob that the buyback will not be PR'd until AFTER the buyback and that buyback will be on a ship by ship basis and previous reports of an uplisting,this may refer to an uplisting to the OTCBB-initially as otcqb classification,which requires a company be SEC reporting and probably audited financials.
Thats not true of the 12-30 or 2-28 PR's.
Only of Jan PR which focused on improperly applied CE(12-30 PR prompted market forces to take control so special interest groups cried promotion to get ce applied)
and 3-1 PR,the buyout offer which most but not all concluded was fake and or a game by special interest groups. And even though CWRN had nothing to do w that buyout offer many somehow blamed the company for it.
And there were other factors re the ship leaving.
The improperly applied(there was no promotion)ce has suppressed the pps-but when it is removed -logically the pps should jump again,as it could when other reported seminal events occur also.
Are those piles in the second picture some of the 1-3mm ore they've been collecting from around the site and processing or is that 3-18mm ore?
They've apparently got a large pile of 1-3mm ore below one of the roads where you picture the Cat 740 regularly dumping more ore-not sure why they are storing it there next to and below the road-as opposed to the ore piles in the 2nd pic.
On April 20,Bullit said trucking might start in a couple weeks(from April 20). So hopefully soon. I'm ready anytime the company is.
Partly because,last I heard real unemployment was 40% down there. But more expensive than China. I recently saw a documentary about Chinese factories where wages were 6 cents/hr.
The investment community that reads these boards obviously does care a lot about pictures-which reveal a lot. Its part of transparency.
From the Apr 5 PR:
"The Company is now in the process of screening out its 0-3mm fines, which had accumulated around the mining site, into several massive stockpiles. This undertaking should be accomplished within 10 days, resulting in a finished product of 1-3mm fines that will be sold under a new contract while the company is preparing the second shipment. In addition to all of this, The Company is adding more heavy excavation equipment to increase production."
Of course they continue production of new product also-both 3-18 mm and 0-3mm screened from the larger ore. So amount of both sizes grows daily.
They have mobile tracked equipment and 3 or 4 mag separators for 1-3 mm ore,so they move them around as necessary to process the ore.
Last we knew they were working one half day on Saturday-and they added night shift in Jan.
As itmd noted in January and I re-posted before,from Aug 4 2009 PR,CWRN retired 3 billion of those O/S. Thus pinksheets shows last reported as 2.308 B O/S.
A/S is 6 but A/S is not O/S and if significant restricted shares were issued to investors as extra collateral for the equipment,now that that debt has supposedly been retired,up to possibly 2B of said restricted shares are now or due to be retired,leaving O/S ca 4B or less,especially as buyback/retirement of insider shares gets underway.
We have seen considerable progress since August-which for a junior miner has been very significant,though it sometimes does not seem that way to those whose perspective is limited to day by day.
Even if revenue is probably not shown until the 2nd qtr,there are considerable, rapidly growing assets in the period from August to date. Including millions in equipment and inventory.
Though I agree that they obviously expected revenues before they posted financials when they forecast(back in Nov) Apr 15 as a date for financials.
Imo that date was too optimistic for 1st qtr financials,which usually take 45 or more days and many companies are late w financials-not posting for 60-120 days.
As long as the stock is undervalued and CWRN wishes to uplist buyback will continue indefinitely.
The big iron companies are spending 5-10 billion(that we know of) to buy back their stock this year at prices of e.g. 65/share because they are flush w cash and consider their shares undervalued in this booming iron market.
That is SOP,especially for and even more so for penny companies which turn the corner to significant revenue.
Such companies keep buying back and I would expect CWRN to keep buying back beyond the announced 60% also. It will take at least several months to buyback the 60.
Remember they PR'd last fall that they would be retiring insider shares also in a structured plan. See my 12-17 post,which maybe in MaxShockers compilation.
The usual learning curve by the port and the company. Just as the proposed method for loading the 3-18 mm ore changed several times due to this learning curve and dredging and port equipment,so the method of delivery has changed.
Originally the 1-3mm superfines were to go by container ship-as PR'd last fall,as you noted,but I think they decided that would be unnecessarily expensive.
Then I believe it was itmd who reported the 1-3mm bags would be thrown on top of the 3-18 mm loose ore.
But that assumes same buyer for both and for whatever reason they chose to concentrate on getting a ship of 3-18 mm ore out first,with a new contract(as noted by the last PR) and possibly a new buyer for the 1-3mm ore. (Ore smaller than 1mm is screened out as waste,as per the website).
The method of loading the 1-3mm bags and shipment of the same is
still unknown to us.
They have had 3-4 mag separators for the 1-3mm since at least November-I believe those separators ,unlike the custom separator for the 3-18mm,are used-some of them were pictured back in November.
For those who don't know he's talking about the bonus for ore higher than the benchmark of 62%.
As noted in the sticky article posted by Cohibaman,for every % over 62% the average bonus is 5 dollars/ton.
The exact amount would be specified in the contract,which would likely also specify at what point in time the ore is tested in this regard. The ore has been tested for years by the company and months by the buyer-both at the mine and the port.
Unless contract specifically says otherwise I would think the bonus amount is simply added to the agreed contract price and paid at same time.
The Pr's for last many months have always stated CFR-which would mean they are paid when the ore passes over the rail of the ship.
In practice CWRN presents bill of lading to the bank which communicates w buyers bank which confirms w buyer and then is paid-a process of maybe 5 or so days.
So,unless contract was changed to FOB after the signed deal(very unlikely in this sellers market)and after the PR's or some other bizarre thing occurred(unlikely)CWRN has been paid.
Which is one of the reasons they spoke in the PR about acquiring additional excavators.
Yes thats the map I saw. And thats a good question because the map is definitely not in "South central Baja" as 2-28 PR said.
The map area is very definitely N portion of Baja peninsula and even the N half -though barely -of Baja Norte.
A good area for iron mining if you can find or truck enough water,for the shipping point only gets 2 inches of rainfall per year-making it one of the driest deserts.
From the 2-28 PR,just to remind people of what you are talking about:
"management has decided to disclose to the public that it has paid $30,000.00 in mineral taxes on the 21,000 hectare (52,500 acres) "Mina Nazarena" as part of its contribution in a Consortium Group that is planning to develop the large iron mineral deposit within year 2011. The CWRN Team will be responsible for development and operations of the project. The mineral concession is located in south central Baja California, approximately 80 kilometers from the Sea of Cortez and 50 kilometers from the Pacific Ocean. The highlight of the project is a 14 kilometer (8.75 miles) long magnetite strike. The Company will begin exploration within the next few weeks. The estimated size of the ore bodies has not been confirmed; however, it is believed to be one of largest in Baja California if not the largest. The Company is also reviewing its options on two other iron mineral concessions located outside of Baja, pending the investment strategy of its U.S. investors which have indicated to management, that they are willing to go the distance on larger iron mineral projects."
The only San Quintin I know or can find(though there may be others)is this one ca 115 miles S of Ensenada.:"The town is on the west coast of the central Baja California Peninsula, near the Bahía de San Quintín, 300 km (187 mi) south of the San Ysidro–Tijuana international border along Federal Highway 1."
I've seen maps of the new concession but don't have in front of me right now that puts the new concession much farther South in Baja-as the PR says "South central Baja".
I suspect Rocket or somebody can pull up that map of the new concession for us.
An example of one of the reasons for a blog-items of interest that don't merit a PR but keep us up to date or inform us of other things.
Several of us asked the company to post a blog and they did.
Other than financials (which are coming)CWRN is more responsive and has better communication than any stock I know. Some junior miners go up to a year or so without any type of communication.
The private company whose concessions surround Baja 14 on several sides also has some silver,so there is always the possibility of other minerals.
All the testing from 2008 to date to my knowledge has indicated a range of 59-67% iron% BEFORE separation.
I don't know how much the % is currently increased with the custom separator for the 3-18 mm ore or the 3 or 4 separators for the 1-3mm ore but non-recent website info indicates 3-7%.
At any rate,an average of these values would indicate 63% before separation and possibly 66-70% after separation based on 3-7% increase.
Rocket recently posted a pic of Sharons meter showing 66 or 67% in one of the areas they were approaching.
The article in the sticky posted by Cohibaman says the premium for every % over the benchmark of 62% is 5 dollars/ton.
Which is why said article said some junior miners with premium ore have a negative cost,with most juniors in the $20-50/ton cost range-one of those costs being typical fees to the surface landowner. (I don't expect CWRN to have negative cost due to startup etc costs but a 5 dollar premium per % is certainly helpful).
Govt maps show the entire mountainous backbone of Baja to be a mineralized zone and Baja 14 is surrounded by other iron concessions,so that is another confirmation of a huge area of iron rich magma uplifts.
I don't know production rate either but the new excavation equipment reportedly will increase it to 70000 tons/month this quarter.
The Baja 14 ore has been tested ever since 2008,as Balahi noted from the Baja 14 geological survey on the website,which noted low sulfur.
The ore has been tested many times by CWRN and many times by the buyers both at the mine and at the port. Nobody found any problems for the buyer accepted the ore. I never heard of a shipload test load either.
Kriton capacity 42007 tons. Over 38500 tons shipped. Rest of dwt is fuel, people and ballast.
Some good logic. CWRN has taken just about every beating possible from certain groups and has survived. Nobody has been able to supply another magic formula stock in this tough market.
CWRN is a rare junior miner to transition to production and revenue.
This kind of situation is suppose to be a lodestar of penny stocks.
Delays and Murphy's law have been SOP for EVERY-and I mean EVERY- penny stock and many bluechips I've followed-many bluechips of which no longer exist.
We all know and have experienced Murphy's law-so that isn't news.
Its like saying everyday "oh oh the sun is going down at sunset- I'm dead,all is lost" as if it were never going to rise again and as if they had never seen that before.
What is news in pennys is the ability to work through the startup problems as CWRN is doing.
After the 1st shipment and considerable equipment/operations it should be clear shipments will continue. The company doesn't stop producing on days without a PR or financials for that matter-which are coming.
Depends not just on production but also possibly other things like shipping contracts-which they may be changing.
He knows there is lots of iron in those hills at a much greater profit margin than other minerals and the debt is either paid or he is sitting on a lot of cash.
From the company that operates the EIT terminal(see www.enseit.com):
"•Acquisitions of additional yard equipment, such as rubber tire gantry cranes, reach stackers, empty container handlers, and forklifts, among others
•Construction of a second 300-meter dock position, allowing the operation of two ships at the same time (2008-2009)"
As per SOP and Murphys law the latter hasn't been accomplished yet but could help in future loadings.
Also, Rockets pictures in last couple weeks show various stages of continuing production. They aren't going to spend several years and millions in equipment etc just to deliver one shipload.
Using the trucking roundtrip times supplied by the truckers and approximate known loads they COULD truck a Kriton size ship in 2 weeks with ca 24 trucks,or 100k tons/month.
In January somebody close to the port said they could ship every 2 weeks. This assumes ore availability.
With additional excavators noted in the recent PR it was reported production would increase at some point in this qtr to 70k tons/month. We wait and see.
The shipping company. As with all things there is a learning curve. Bob said he gave the shipping company too much leeway etc and they changed things to the shipping company's advantage and that he will do things differently with the next shipping contract.
3-16 Bob told me he was not happy with the way the shipping sharks handled certain things- so its possible they may be getting a new shipping contract also-no guarantees-I don't know the specific contractual length of the 1st shipping contract.
on at least 1100 acres,as somebody reported ,which is almost 2 square miles(640 acres /sq mile). You can hike in a much smaller area for weeks without seeing other hikers in the same area.They've done tests w multiple hunters and deer within a much smaller enclosure and hunters went many days without seeing a deer.