M&A business
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Various points to be answered:
The question came up giving the link to the web- side from which I quoted an article yesterday with reference to some pending patent infringements cases of small companies versus Big names.
The reason for not giving the Web-side out: I have no interest to invite Spams towards their Webside. Even as it is closed to members this would not hold back some to write Emails to them.
Further, my comment when I posted the article was as well clear: It says, that those companies mentioned are added to a watch-list. What means a watch-list based on their terms:
This trading and communication platform gives investors and traders the opportunity to create watch lists and screens, or filter, for certain conditions to be met. The member(s) then can specify both fundament and technical criteria in an attempt to find high probability trading or investing opportunities. The watch list in this closed-forum provides even an alert , such as an audible alert, that warns the member that the conditions have been meet and now based on that it is on the member to decide if he want to go for it. It is a full kind of service and for this reason of course it is not for free but very lucrative for both sides I would guess.
Per se this is not even unique: As brokerage houses distribute lists to some of their potential clients with names of companies : Stocks to watch, stocks to buy , stocks to sell and stocks with a neutral rating with regular follow-ups. This Kind of Service from certain brokerage houses is not for free either as they expect Business from those Clients they serve with their Service.
Conclusion: Adding a stock to the watch-list is never understood as a buy-recommendation but to wait for an audible alert that COULD trigger a buy recommendation.
Then by S the Sanofi corporationhas been brought up. His thoughts are not a rumour but make actually common sense and this for various reasons.
But I try to present at least one of the reasons:
As we all know, DECN filed for CE mark in Europe. The CE mark is needed to sell your product within the European Union, however the CE mark then as well opens to door for countries not being members of the European Union, like Russia and more.
Bruxelles is a bureaucratic power-house which takes time with their decisions, as actually the FDA in the USA does as well. But I would guess, the chances are good they will get it before end of the year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/decision-diagnostics-corp-subsidiary-pharma-132000211.html
Then we know as well, that DECN engaged Mark Krakauer to head up Genstrip Private Label sales efforts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/decision-diagnostics-announces-engagement-mark-131500617.html
As it should be clear, that due to the patt-situation between DECN and J&J, DECN can only prepare but not really execute in full force. For this they need a very clear statement from the court. (And this is by the way as well the tone of the Web-Side article and for this reason they put those names on a watchlist)
But doing nothing in this kind of waiting period is not the solution for DECN nor for any other company either. You start talks, negotiate and are looking for alliances that you can react if and when the decision should be final in your favour.
If DECN receives the CE mark and there is no doubt that they won’t receive it, Sanofi certainly would be one of the options to have been approached and I could think of various other names they could work together.
You are right, but they did not fill the pot up to 1 Million. (Thanks good) They only advanced $ 624.000.--
On March 6, 2012, the Board of Directors, consisting of Mr. Schwartz and Ms. Bershan, authorized the Company to execute a Convertible
Revolving Grid Note (the “Grid Note”) for a principal sum of up to $1,000,000 with CEO Barry Schwartz and President, Lisa Bershan. The Grid
Note bears interest at 10% per year and may be converted into common stock of the Company at a conversion price of $0.0022 any time before
March 6, 2013. Neither Mr. Schwartz nor Ms. Bershan has advanced capital under the terms of the grid note as of December 31, 2012. In March
2013, the Grid Note was amended. On February 26, 2013, the Board of Directors authorized the Company to amend the Convertible Revolving
Grid Note for a principal sum of up to $1,000,000 with Chief Executive Officer Barry Schwartz and President Lisa Bershan dated March 6,
2012. The amendment reduced interest to 6.5% per year, extended the maturity date to 4 years, and extended the conversion date to October 31,
2013. As of September 30, 2013, Mr. Schwartz and Ms. Bershan have loaned $624,064 with $15,106 accrued interest. Under the terms of the
Grid Note and such amount is convertible into 290,531,696 shares of the Company’s common stock.
Yep - justed posted it.
THEY CONVERTED AT 0.0022
Item 8.01 Other Events.
On March 24, 2014, Lisa Bershan our President and Barry Schwartz our Chief Executive Officer, elected to convert $624,064 plus accrued
interest of $15,106 owing as of September 30, 2013, into 290,531,696 shares of common stock, at a conversion price of $0.0022 per share.
Although they are not required to do so, Lisa Bershan and Barry Schwartz may continue to lend the Company additional sums pursuant to the
terms of the Grid Note, and in such event they may, but not obligated to, convert any amounts that may be owing from time to time into shares
of common stock according to the terms therein described. On March 27, 2014 the company issued a press release announcing this conversion
of debt into shares of the company. A copy of that press release is attached to this filing as Exhibit 99.1.
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits
No. Description
99.1 Press Release
The grid has been executed already. I will try to find the filing
It is very simple.
When I read the first time about Q.S in the causa Grushkin and then saw the Grid in the filings then it was rather obvious. The account QS was controlled by B.S. and he even confirmed it that he is the B.O. of this account and that all papers in relation to this have been send together with other papers to the SEC.
So, there is no hidden Agenda. Part of the salary was taken that way. Everybody had Access to the court papers as well where this is part of E.G,s allegations but then at that time it was E.G. who signed internally for such Transactions. So when he signed at that time then of course he was already Aware of the internal structure.
What he may not have known at that time, that those funds (part of the salary) will be given back to the Company as a loan (Grid-loan)with the purpose of converting it later into stocks.
Actually from my Point of view - as of today - the Transaction was not very smart. It would have been better they would have stayed with the grid if one Looks at the stock-Price today as they did a very bad deal with this conversion.
We had this before but I will try again.
The Transaction they did was 100 % legal and the IRS is not losing 1 $ because of such a Transactions. All what you do is defer the payment date. This is all.
I thought this is E.Grushkin's Job. Let's go down to normal.
I think the SEC get's thousands of letters every year from frustrated shareholders. As Long as all is within legal Parameters they will put those papers to the shredders. Otherwise they could Close their Organisation.
And again, if one likes it or not. With the SQ account AAPT did nothing illegal. Taking a high salary is not illegal it may not be right based on the Status quo of the Company, but it is not illegal.
We discussed this subject in 2013 so there is no Need to go into it again.
The Transactions were fully reported as well as the SQ Account.
What they did was 100 % legal, if we like it or not.
If you want to Change anything, then you have to Change the tax law.
Before the rumbling starts. I do not justify what has been done with reference to the high salaries of which part if it had then be used to re-channel (legally) back to the company as loan in form of a Grid and then convert it into Shares. Other companies do this as well, but a Company like AAPT with doing this, damaged the Company.
Again:
Part of the salary where channeled through Starrs (with the B.O. B.S.) absolut legally and signed up by E.G. and the reason for it I tried to explain in my previous post.
This Money would have better been invested in the Company this is clear.
The Starr Queens account is no mistery.
Star Queens account was used for the Grid:
I try to give an example:
You work as CFO for a Company. They grant you Options in your Name. The day you execute them, you will have to take Money in your Hands unless of course you get cash-less Options as is most of the time the case, but the tax-implications are the same. It is considered then as part of an income once executed and sold.
But you could as well do it through an entity where you are the B.O. (Beneficial Owner) The Transaction is the same, either you pay for it or you have cash-less Options. Now if you would have to pay for it, you could tell the Company, that part of your salary goes to your private account and part goes to this entity (Starr Queens where you are as well B.O) so as to have enough cash if and when you execute. Now you execute them and sell them through your entitiy. The tax of course is paid by the entity of which of course you are the B.O.
Versus the IRS you have 2 accounts. Your personal account which is taxed for the income you have and the Entity account which will get taxed if and when the Options are executed and sold.
Through the entity you defer your tax payment on one Hand and on the other Hand as you divide or seperate the income, you will pay less taxes as you would if all would go into the same pot.
And here the reported Grid Transaction.
All reported in the last 10Q
On March 6, 2012, the Board of Directors, consisting of Mr. Schwartz and Ms. Bershan, authorized the Company to execute a Convertible
Revolving Grid Note (the “Grid Note”) for a principal sum of up to $1,000,000 with CEO Barry Schwartz and President, Lisa Bershan. The Grid
Note bears interest at 10% per year and may be converted into common stock of the Company at a conversion price of $0.0022 any time before
March 6, 2013. Neither Mr. Schwartz nor Ms. Bershan has advanced capital under the terms of the grid note as of December 31, 2012. In March
2013, the Grid Note was amended. On February 26, 2013, the Board of Directors authorized the Company to amend the Convertible Revolving
Grid Note for a principal sum of up to $1,000,000 with Chief Executive Officer Barry Schwartz and President Lisa Bershan dated March 6,
2012. The amendment reduced interest to 6.5% per year, extended the maturity date to 4 years, and extended the conversion date to October 31,
2013. As of September 30, 2013, Mr. Schwartz and Ms. Bershan have loaned $624,064 with $15,106 accrued interest. Under the terms of the
Grid Note and such amount is convertible into 290,531,696 shares of the Company’s common stock.
The terms of the Grid Note provide that the conversion price be lowered upon the occurrence of certain defined events. Notwithstanding this
fact, the embedded conversion right is not required to be bifurcated from the host debt instrument, as the underlying common stock is not
deemed to be readily convertible to cash (Accounting Standards Codification 815-15-25-51) based on management’s evaluation of the trading
volume of the Company’s common stock and the lock up provisions of the Grid Note.
The conversion price of the Grid Note was below the closing market price of the Company’s common stock at the tie of related borrowings. As a
result, the Company recognized beneficial conversion features, which were limited to the amount of the Grid Note borrowings of $624,064. The
beneficial conversion features are being amortized to interest expense over the term of the Grid Note (March 2016). During the nine months
ended September 30, 2013, interest expense related to the amortization of beneficial conversion features totaled $76,980.
DECN was mentioned (among 7 other small companies) in a close-end forum where members pay $ 4.500.- per year. The fee is high but it sorts the wheat from the chaff as they say on their Webside.
The subject was about a revolution taking place from small players against the monopoly from old economy.
The set-up for the article were various successful rulings against market dominating companies covering the whole spectrum of sectors, but a Special weight was given to a case who made rather heavy waves. Nestle/Nespresso (You know where George Clooney Plays in the Commercials) Part of the article was the UK ruling in favor of 2 small companies against the Giant Nestle.
The U.K. ruling said: That capsules for Nespresso coffee machines does not infringe patents. (Sounds familiar: In this case coffee machines versus capsules and in our case blood glucose monitors versus test strips) According to court papers, Nestle reportedly sold around $ 4.2 billion worth of Nespresso products in 2012 but claimed that its revenue is under threat from competitors selling coffee capsules for its machines. (Well to me sounds very familiar with what J&J claims versus DECN) As with the J&J case, Nestle of course did not accept this ruling in 2013 and took it as far as they could to France (Member of the EU) only to face a very hard worded defeat.
This verdict is considered as one of the latest and biggest challenges and or blow to Nestles dominance.
For every company mentioned in the blog, a short break-down is given about the opportunities those companies could have, once a ruling would become definitive in their favour.
By DECN it says:
It could be anticipated that GenStrip would be well received by the distributors due to new payment changes for test strips caused by Medicare's mandated competitive bidding, which began July 1, 2013. The Medicare mandate is expected to lower reimbursement of supplies and medical goods for diabetics by nearly 67%. This change will affect the "direct to patient" services channel, which has more than 25% of the diabetes testing market. It seems, that DECN has as a solution to this mandate. The new Mail Order/Competitive Bidding version of GenStrip will offer the brand name market an alternative where companies in the 'direct to patient' fulfillment business can offer high quality diabetic test strips and still make a profit without forcing diabetics to endure crippling co-payments."
Decision Diagnostics could be greatly rewarded once the company begins selling the product to their distribution networks. GenStrip has superior performance and pricing than the current generation of test strips on the market. If DECN garners only a tiny fraction of the market it will make a huge impact on the company's revenues and earnings. If DECN gains 1% of the market by 2017 they will have $300 million in revenue. DECN's management is targeting market share gains substantially greater than 1% by 2017. Management's commitment and investment in GenStrip could garner Decision Diagnostics a potentially large return on their investment. DECN could make significant headway in selling GenStrip, not only to the "direct to patient" distributors but all channels including retail.
We recommend to add DECN to the watch list together with the other companies mentioned in this report and to follow them closely in the continuing court clash.
My interpretation: Adding to the watch list is not a buy-recommendation, however based on the outcome it could be upgraded to a buy-recommendation. If so, it could get overcrowded on the bid side. In the meantime just be patient.
I for my part prefer to listen to the professionals in the world of financial newspapers as they have a excellent sensor about companies of "Tomorrow".
Forbes Headline:
J&J Faces Potentially Disrupting Competition In Its Lucrative Glucose Monitoring Business From Tiny Diagnostics Outfit
http://www.forbes.com/sites/genemarcial/2013/03/11/jj-faces-potentially-disrupting-competition-in-its-lucrative-glucose-monitoring-business-from-tiny-diagnostics-outfit/
Taking the very "bullish" undertone of the Forbes article, when it was published, that since then DECN got 2 more victories versus J&J out of court.
And the conclusion from FORBES:
Decision Diagnostics could eventually gain a foothold in the high-margin market controlled by J&J and three other pharmaceutical giants. With Genstrip‘s approval, the product may attract other Big Pharma companies to either license it it or acquire all of Decision Diagnostics.
According to the 10N yes.
The Company reported it
I had to read this again and must say, well written by S.
I was speaking to the Markman hearing that occurred on August 22. The real name of the Markman hearing is claims construction hearing. But Markman, a Plaintiff some years back, had the process named after him because that case set order to the patent infringement process. Other than a trial, the Markman hearing is the most important part of a patent suit. If J&J can prove there is a hint of infringement then the suit goes to trial. If DECN proves there is no infringement then they win by default. The word after the Markman hearing was that J&J did not prove their case. Now 10 weeks have passed. There has been no ruling.
My partner, an IP defense counsel, told me that Plaintiffs (J&J) are given every benefit in this type of court battle. The judge has to believe that they brought their suit in good faith. That is until he doesn't. The 10 weeks of silence is not really silence, it is the lawsuit screaming at J&J that they are in deep trouble.
Nothing it is like a CV but there under normal circumstances the CV Price is higher. Here, the CV Price is 20% Discount versus the Price when conversion takes place. This is the difference.
And those Funds doing this Kind of deals are known to get the Maximum out of it.
But, we will see in the months ahead.
Well you can call my opinion soft or hard - never mind I try to be constructive
The text in the 8 K is clear:
It says:
The credit facility is convertible to stock on a mutually acceptable and agreed-to basis. The conversion ratio is 80% of the current price at time of conversion. There is no prepayment penalty on any draw downs on the line of credit.
And it means:
That they agreed mutually.... to those Terms of a CV Ratio of 80 %. If it would be otherwise, the deal would have been signed.
The text is rather clear:
The mutually acceptable and agreed-to Basis. And this is what they did: They agreed on a conversion Ratio of 80 %.
Here from the 8 K
http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20141031/ABA2K22CZZ22M2ZA22TG2CZBLBAIMB22Z262
The credit facility is convertible to stock on a mutually acceptable and agreed-to basis. The conversion ratio is 80% of the current price at time of conversion. There is no prepayment penalty on any draw downs on the line of credit.
Don't understand your message.
Let settle on this one:
MYEC will not be able to repay with cash, this is rather certain. Because first they have to invest a lot and second cash coming in from deals to cover the costs are far away. Up to this day I have not seen a deal of size. But what is today, can be different in 1 or 2 years. In the meantime they must survive.
If they would be able to repay with cash from revenues, they would have made a Factoring deal on a pro-rata Basis.
Getting financed is certainly not what I quarrel about, as companies Need to be financed until break even and this can be done in various ways of course, depends on your Standing.
But this Kind of deal gives the lender all rights: And the lender will convert, otherwise this fund would be stupid are working as a charitable trust. So they will get - besides the fees and accrued interest - with Shares 20 % discounted. It is also obvious that the lower the stockprice will be at the day they convert, they will get more Shares and those Shares even with a 20 % Discount. The lower the better the more Shares and certainly then as well a higher return, because those 20 % gap already gives them a perfect protection and those Boys know how to create momentum to get the most out of it.
Then the 8 K is wrong. Sorry
After they pull 5 Mio the lender can convert in stocks.
Read the 8 K
The credit facility is convertible to stock on a mutually acceptable and agreed-to basis. The conversion ratio is 80% of the current price at time of conversion. There is no prepayment penalty on any draw downs on the line of credit.
Here from the 8 K
http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20141031/ABA2K22CZZ22M2ZA22TG2CZBLBAIMB22Z262
The credit facility is convertible to stock on a mutually acceptable and agreed-to basis. The conversion ratio is 80% of the current price at time of conversion. There is no prepayment penalty on any draw downs on the line of credit.
THE POINT IS CREDIT FACILITY.
UP TO KNOW HE IS DRAWING 550.000 BUT HE COULD GO UP TO 5 MIO.
AND THIS IS: STARTING FROM 550.000 UP TO 5 MIO THEN CONVERTIBLE INTO SHARES WITH A 20 % DISCOUNT AND THE CONVERSION PRICE OF COURSE WILL BE FIXED WHEN THE CONVERSION TAKES PLACE.
THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE $ 100.000 PLEDGE.
Seems you did not read the 8K?
Well then I cannot be of help: The important text is: Credit-facility
Of course you can, but the margins are so high for those Kind of stocks that you are not sitting to Long short in a stock that loses downside momentum. So maybe I Close the Position today, but certainly would not buy, as I do not like the Transaction at all.
Nope:
The credit-facility is for 5 Mio.
He will draw immediately 550.000 which would be already 16 Mio Shares at todays Price and with a Discount of 20 % 19.2 Mio.
If this is all what he draws, fine, but why would he Need then 5 Mio.
And finally, if you would be the lender, you would be interested in a low stock Price not in a higher one. The lower the better.
I trade the stock and reported that I sold out and went short. At what Point I will cover I will see (margins are expensive with this Kind of stocks) but if you trade means as well looking at the buying side and frankly I do not feel well, when I see an overhang ride under my nose and this with a 20 % Discount.
Without being cynical about this subject: Every shareholder cannot be pleased with such Kind of a deal. Sorry, E.S. was ill advised or worse, he is very desperate to get this Kind of Money, as he is somehow trapped due to this Titan Shares stake with queastion marks? Whatever, the deal is bad.
Again:
The $ 100.000 Transaction I am as such not much interested, because this is not the Point. But, even here: TCA is protected in case the stock would be lower than the present Ratio. (If the stock is higher, they get their $ 100.000 and this is it)
But the Point I am talking about is: The credit facility is convertible to stock with a 20 % Discount versus the Price when the conversion takes place.
If I would be the lender, I would short the stock, because I have no risk but plenty to gain on the downside as the lower the stock goes themore Shares I get and in Addition to this a 20 % Discount.
A lot of small companies with good products, never made it, because they got killed with this Kind of toxic vehicles. The only Thing we can hope, that he would not draw the whole 5 Mio
Imagine what this could amount to how many Shares if the Play the dead-spiral on the downside?
E.S. Should never ever have entered this Kind of deal. It is for every believer in this Company a slap in the face.
You Dance around the $ 100.000.--
Read the 8 K - it is about the credit facility.
The cost of the deal is very expensive.
This is the Trigger:
The credit facility is convertible to stock on a mutually acceptable and agreed-to basis. The conversion ratio is 80% of the current price at time of conversion. There is no prepayment penalty on any draw downs on the line of credit.
Let's say MYEC only draws 1 Mio.
Then the ground fees of 100.000 plus are already 10 %
Add to it the 20 % Discount for conversion and you get another 20 %. Total 30 %. But if the life span is 9 months you get p.a. a cost Level of 39 %.
And it is clear TCA will convert, they would be stupid not to do, if you get Shares at 20 % Discount. But this is exactly what makes those deals so dangerous. They can short against the box as they have no risk. If the stock goes up, so what, they don,t have to cover, as they get it 20 % cheaper. Now the lower the stock would go, themore Shares they would get.
Good Point: This will be taken care of from what they receive.
Very expensive deal and very toxic.
Let’s break-down the transaction.
Interest rate 11 %
Fee $ 49.950 (legal and due-diligence)
Fee $ 22.000 plus
979,588 shares = $ 33.320.-
A total expense (excl. interest) = $ 105.270.—
Comes to it: $ 100.000 worth of MYEC shares . The formula is: 2,941.176 shares at a price fixed $ 0.034. However if the stock goes lower, they will be compensated.
(The interest of TCA should then be, to beat the stock down, so as to get more shares, this is what we call toxic risk)
Then in addition to this, the drawn amount can be converted into shares with a conversion ratio of80 % of the current price if and when converted. (or better said 20 % discount)
(The interest of TCA should then be, to beat the stock down, so as to get more shares, this is what we call toxic risk)
To add up:
Total fees paid $ 105.270.—for getting the line
Whatever amount is taken, interest is 11 %
Then $ 100.000.—worth of shares with a so-called put, this means, the lower the price the better,as they get fully compensated.
Plus a 20 % discount on the amount converted in shares but with no fixed conversion price, it will be the price if and when converted.
Adding this all together, it could actually be an interest cost price of 35 %. (This is more than toxic but besides that, TCA can short the stock as they are protected with the conversion right and they would be stupid not to do it, as for them, the lower it goes actually the better.
This is a rather expensive and desperate deal.
Various Trigger Points for DECN stock to move up:
1. Settlement with Johnson and Johnson
2. Amount of compensation being paid by Johnson and Johnson.
3. Bond $ 12. 4 Mio
4. Counterclaim suit: 3-4 times of the bond value (36-50 Mio$)
5. People will realise, that Pharma Tech Solutions has acquired the intellectual property, trademarks, design documents and control of Genstrip which means, that in future, no royalties/licence fees will have to be paid. Smart move as it allows DECN to sell their product much cheaper and still Keep a healthy margin.
6. The Genstrip can be sold under their own name but then the company can as well close deals “called private label” deals with large retail chains.
7. Secured financing for production.
Is there a possibility to attach a valuation profile for DECN.
Let me try:
1. Settlement with Johnson and Johnson
2. Amount of compensation being paid by Johnson and Johnson.
3. Bond $ 12. 4 Mio
4. Counterclaim suit: 3-4 times of the bond value (36-50 Mio$)
5. Pharma Tech Solutions has acquired the intellectual property, trademarks, design documents and control of Genstrip which means, that in future, no royalties will have to be paid. Smart move as it allows DECN to sell their product much cheaper and still Keep a healthy margin.
6. The Genstrip can be sold under their own name but then the company can as well close deals “called private label” deals with large retail chains.
7. Secured financing for production.
Settlement assured, DECN will be free to go ahead and market their product like mentioned under (6). The debate is what market size is DECN targeting. Figures are being moved around between 20 Billion and 6 billion, but a sure bet I would say is around $ 7 billion if one studies the various reports and magazines.
Due to the price policy of DECN within a period of 3 years they could certainly be on their way to grab 5 % or $ 350 Mio. Uncounted for would be, to how much private label deals would amount to. If done with the Walmarts, CVS, Costcos and so on, their product could certainly catch 10 % of size.
Playing the range between$ 350 Mio and $ 700 Mio leaves plenty of room for perception and this is what it is all about in the markets.
Starting from the bottom:
I guess DECN has roughly 40 Mio shs (plus) outstanding giving them approx. $ 12 Mio capitalisation, actually close to the bond of $ 12.4 Mio.
Payments from J&J exceeding the bond value of course would mean, cash in the bank and actually leave DEC free from financing itself. If DECN would get 3 to 4 times the bond value due to their counterclaim damage suit, we would be talking $ 36 - $ 50 Mio, adding another $ 1.-- to the stock Price.
Having said this, no premium attached to payments above $ 12.4 Mio and no premiums attached for the product and their 100 % control.(no royalties to be paid) The stock actually is trading on a deep NAV value if one takes a possible compensation figure of $ 300 - $ 50 Mio into account and as well that the J&J case after 3 positive rulings pro DECN is a finished case, regardless if J&J tries to buy some time but then as well some higher compensation costs.
Net profit spreads are open to be discussed by standards, but figuring 10 % after EBITA will certainly not be challenged as when studying other companies the figure is rather closer to 20 %. Again, as DECN does not have to pay any royalties or licensing fees the can Keep the marging despite having their product priced far below the ones of their competition.
Low End $ 350 Mio from a 7 billion $ market and including private label deals with big retailers would leave $ 35 Mio net profit with the 10 % formula.
Price Earnings-Ratios reflecting the growth expectations are for this Kind of sector between 15 and 20. I will as well take the low end of the range of 10 times trailing versus 17 average in the overall market. That leaves a capitalisation of $ 350 Mio.
Having gotten to this number: Where do we end with the dilution: 50 Mio – 60 Mio? But if DECN would get only the bond compensation, there would be no need for further dilution as this cash would allow them to finance the whole process. Higher compensations of course would leave plenty of room even to buy back stocks (which I certainly would do)
This would leave us a stock price of $ 7.—or $ 6.—compared to the recent price of $ 0.30.
But markets have a tendency to overreact in both ways. The market could estimate a higher growth rate which of course would not be contested when we are talking about a multi-Billion $ market and I am talking here about $ 350 Mio market share. If so - the upside is the Limit.
But, then who needs a hype when the target calculated at minimum levels is already mouth- watering.
What people should keep in mind: DECN is a real company, has a real product and a huge market for this product and evidence for all this has been given by J&J, when they started to sue DECN for patent infringement early 2013 and in the meantime got beaten already 3 times in court. J&J has been spending millions and their reputation shows that they are afraid that DECN could grab market shares away from them and if they would not see it that way, they never would have sued.
Conclusion: DECN is trading at a level were no premium is attached but once the case is definitive settled this will change quickly.
Last but not least: The recent take-overs and mergers within this kind of industry (Healthcare) paid 1 times – 1.5 times the revenue base. Taking the possible 5 % expectation of $ 350 Mio we would be talking about $ 350 Mio – to $ 525 Mio. Actually cheap for those acquiring it: Even at $ 525 Mio the return on equity would be 6.66 % at the high bid and 10 % at the low bid. For every private equity company a temptation when they get 2.3 % on a 10 % Year Treasury. I am pretty sure, J&J is brainstorming about this possibility as well and if not, then others will do it at a later stage.
3 months volume of total 6.2 Mio shs with a Ratio 75 to 25. No wonder this 2 indicators go up.
Somebody is certainly accumulating.
Another Ratio: 6.2 Mio from (estimated) 42 O/S is a turnover of 15 % within 3 months. Annualized would be 60 %.
And as a shocker for bears. The move from 0.16 to 0.45 in early August was done with a volume of total 1.7 Mio. Guess what will happen the next time, when the pendulum swings definitive in favour of DECN - or better said the 4th time?