great to hear it caddycts and you have not given up on that new cadillac yet.

so it never made the turn to the northwest all the models had predicted. still moving west according to the 8 am report. i'll be. makes for avery interesting weekend for those who are watching Erika. amazing

so how do you know its complete crap that 2q results will not be here next week. We are all annoyed grasshopper, but they will be released and from what we are hearing should be next week. What legal hoops they got to go through i don't know but i am sure there is some. but i am giving them the benefit of the doubt. after all, most of the statements of when 2q would be released were made by posters not nsmg. Last year the 2Q was released on this date 9/4/08. So hang in there caddycts with the rest of us cause you are not alone. i rather be in and not miss it than out and miss it. but thats me.

that map is of 5 pm yesterday. dragynn mapp shows through 4:45 am. in any case though i do not see a turn to the nothwest, these models are way off. if ericka goes a little more south west she will start to pick up a lot of steam. No doubt this is one to watch. with this kind of action going on and 2Q results next week you gotta be nuts if you are not in. seriously - next week could be the motherload.

Rhino,
Seems to me from those models that they all had erika curving pretty good northwest during the night where last night at 11 pm just moving west. Do you have a map or live chart showing actual track as of this morning whether that happened turn to northwest ever took place or is erika still moving west.

as far as i know only paid member can send a private reply and i am not a paid member. if you want to provide an email address i will contact you.

UPDATED: 2:30 pm EDT, September 3, 2009
IS IT LIGHTS OUT FOR ERIKA OR THE BEGINNING OF A NEW SHOW?

The drama with our tropical storm continues. Latest computer model guidance suggests that Erika will survive the hostile conditions and become a formidable hurricane off the East Coast in about a week. Conventional wisdom and a look at the real world strongly argues against that. Why? The low level center being tracked by the NHC is clearly evident on satellite pics and is moving quickly westward to die away and that's that- right? Maybe not. Looking at the latest visible satellite loop of Erika you can also see a distinct turning of the clouds to the east of the low level swirl. This is likely in the mid-levels and unless it works down to the surface, it truly is game over for Erika and fairly soon. The big key, to me anyway, is the next 12-24 hours. If that possible new center does in fact take over, it would fit in with the models that are strengthening this and off she goes. So stay tuned, I have no idea of which way to lean and have a lot of faith in the NHC and their forecast. But things can change and we might, just might, be seeing a re-born Erika that could have an entirely new set of circumstances to deal with down the road. First, let's see what happens over the next 12 hours or so. I'll post another update tonight.

ANOTHER MUST READ ON ERIKA - NEXT 24 HRS WILL DECIDE IF SHE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR CAT HURRICANE NEXT WEEK OR DIE AND NO ONE CAN CALL IT. FROM HURRICANE TRACK 2:15 PM TODAY

UPDATED: 2:30 pm EDT, September 3, 2009
IS IT LIGHTS OUT FOR ERIKA OR THE BEGINNING OF A NEW SHOW?

The drama with our tropical storm continues. Latest computer model guidance suggests that Erika will survive the hostile conditions and become a formidable hurricane off the East Coast in about a week. Conventional wisdom and a look at the real world strongly argues against that. Why? The low level center being tracked by the NHC is clearly evident on satellite pics and is moving quickly westward to die away and that's that- right? Maybe not. Looking at the latest visible satellite loop of Erika you can also see a distinct turning of the clouds to the east of the low level swirl. This is likely in the mid-levels and unless it works down to the surface, it truly is game over for Erika and fairly soon. The big key, to me anyway, is the next 12-24 hours. If that possible new center does in fact take over, it would fit in with the models that are strengthening this and off she goes. So stay tuned, I have no idea of which way to lean and have a lot of faith in the NHC and their forecast. But things can change and we might, just might, be seeing a re-born Erika that could have an entirely new set of circumstances to deal with down the road. First, let's see what happens over the next 12 hours or so. I'll post another update tonight.

i cannot speak for everyone, but definitely agree. We just headed into peak season a few weeks back and this will last into mid october which is really like august but on the down side of the peek - see ihop chart. So tropics are still very active - just the big one has not hit yet but that does not mean there will be one that will be the big one. Erika, is still a wildcard no matter what anybody says because cane forecasters and models are at odds over this one. some show a demise in a few days while others have it as a cat 3. So we are gambling with mother nature and while some have got out there is still a lot of cards to play on the table. Plus the 2Q results delayed for what ever reason is still there and they will come out soon - and from everthing that has been heard and said should be positive and rewarding. So hold on to your cards and chips because this game is only really halfway finished and the 2nd half season could be much more rewarding
that the first half.

just picked up another 100,000 + shares to add to my nsmg pile

Thanks - great video just shows you that mother nature retains her own free will no matter how much we think we can program her.

a must read on erika posted by hurricanetrack,com 9:15am 09/03/09

HOW LONG DOES ERIKA HAVE? DEPENDS ON WHETHER TO BELIEVE MACHINES OR MAN

I cannot recall a more interesting situation as far as the future of a tropical storm like we are seeing with Erika right now. The NHC is continuing advisories on the poorly organized storm but looking at satellite pictures alone, you would think it was a well developed hurricane. The issue is, according to the latest discussions from the NHC, dry air and strong winds at just the right layers of the atmosphere. These negative parameters are just enough to keep Erika firmly in check and may weaken it enough to be downgraded to a well defined tropical wave again. However, it is worth noting that the GFDL and HWRF models insist that Erika will become a major hurricane over the next five days as it travels just north of the Greater Antilles and towards the Bahamas. What I do not understand is how these modern and seemingly reliable models can depict such a contrasting solution to what the NHC is forecasting: dissipation. Their reasoning has more to do with increasing strong winds aloft than anything- enough so that the official forecast calls for Erika to basically fade away as it travels west-northwest. Yet, the GFDL and HWRF show robust intensification in to a strong hurricane along almost the same path that the NHC plots. So who will be right? The models or the humans? Computers are machines designed by people and so they are certainly prone to making mistakes- as we humans are. So it is likely that the human interpretation of the real world will win out and Eika will in fact die off and be of little concern to anyone. That is what seems most likely but it is not a guarantee. The old "what if?" keeps creeping in to my mind and believe me, Mike, Jesse and I have all talked about it at great length between yesterday and right now. Heck, even the Navy's NOGAPS model shows Erika making a comeback over a week from now with a strong storm or hurricane parked off the North Carolina coast. So you see the dilemma that is inherent to this situation. I do not want to create something out of nothing when the people in charge of the forecasts present compelling evidence as to why this thing will die off. But so far, it is still there and looking fairly healthy considering the hostile environment. One thing is certain- unsettled weather will rule the picture over the Lesser Antilles and spread towards Puerto Rico today and tomorrow. Without this even having a name would not limit the heavy rains and gusty winds that are in store for much of the northeast Caribbean. I'll post another update on Erika later this afternoon.

must read on erika from hurricane track 9:15 am 09/03/09

HOW LONG DOES ERIKA HAVE? DEPENDS ON WHETHER TO BELIEVE MACHINES OR MAN

I cannot recall a more interesting situation as far as the future of a tropical storm like we are seeing with Erika right now. The NHC is continuing advisories on the poorly organized storm but looking at satellite pictures alone, you would think it was a well developed hurricane. The issue is, according to the latest discussions from the NHC, dry air and strong winds at just the right layers of the atmosphere. These negative parameters are just enough to keep Erika firmly in check and may weaken it enough to be downgraded to a well defined tropical wave again. However, it is worth noting that the GFDL and HWRF models insist that Erika will become a major hurricane over the next five days as it travels just north of the Greater Antilles and towards the Bahamas. What I do not understand is how these modern and seemingly reliable models can depict such a contrasting solution to what the NHC is forecasting: dissipation. Their reasoning has more to do with increasing strong winds aloft than anything- enough so that the official forecast calls for Erika to basically fade away as it travels west-northwest. Yet, the GFDL and HWRF show robust intensification in to a strong hurricane along almost the same path that the NHC plots. So who will be right? The models or the humans? Computers are machines designed by people and so they are certainly prone to making mistakes- as we humans are. So it is likely that the human interpretation of the real world will win out and Eika will in fact die off and be of little concern to anyone. That is what seems most likely but it is not a guarantee. The old "what if?" keeps creeping in to my mind and believe me, Mike, Jesse and I have all talked about it at great length between yesterday and right now. Heck, even the Navy's NOGAPS model shows Erika making a comeback over a week from now with a strong storm or hurricane parked off the North Carolina coast. So you see the dilemma that is inherent to this situation. I do not want to create something out of nothing when the people in charge of the forecasts present compelling evidence as to why this thing will die off. But so far, it is still there and looking fairly healthy considering the hostile environment. One thing is certain- unsettled weather will rule the picture over the Lesser Antilles and spread towards Puerto Rico today and tomorrow. Without this even having a name would not limit the heavy rains and gusty winds that are in store for much of the northeast Caribbean. I'll post another update on Erika later this afternoon.

its here and mother nature is dealing. game is not over till all cards are played. Erika and others to follow could be the ace's in the deck she has been holding although Bill was definitely a wild card.

RHINO - Going to give them till friday before we start banging on their door - where is the 2Q report!. Hey, ERIKA is not in the main headlines yet but will be in a big way if it becomes strong cat 2-3 or even higher heading for mainland in a few days. This would be to our advantage as a mid week event next week rather than weekend. Hang in there all - mother nature has her hand on the trottle and 2Q report on its way. meantime hold and buy at these low prices cause NSMG could really take off - all the ingredients are there for a hugh momentum play plus several more waves coming of African coast.

Latest from weather underground

Erika is embedded in a weak steering current pattern, and the future track of the storm will depend greatly upon how strong the storm gets over the next few days. A stronger Erika will extend higher into the atmosphere and be steered more to the northwest by upper-level winds. A weaker Erika will be steered more by the low-level winds, which will keep the storm on a more westerly track. Given the complicated nature of the wind shear pattern in the region, it is difficult to forecast how strong Erika will get. Virtually anything can happen over the next five days, from dissipation (as forecast by the ECMWF model) to intensification to a Category 3 hurricane (as forecast by the HWRF model). Large-scale wind shear is expected to increase to 20 - 25 knots between 3 - 4 days from now, so Erika will have to deal with an increasing amount of adversity. The storm is a long-term threat to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast, particularly if the storm stays weak over the next three days. Potential landfall solutions from the models range from Florida on Tuesday (GFS model) to North Carolina on Wednesday (Canadian model).

ASK OF .015 NOT GOING TO LAST LONG

remember guys - she gets too strong to fast they say she will move more northwest. we want it strong enough to survive but weak enough to keep moving more westward. more westward - more nsmg territory.

OK to post the same state as someone else. just like figuring odds at horse races.

Manchild: North Carolina
Dragynn: South Carolina
Rhino: Florida
VanWas: Georgia
caddycts1: Virginia

models showing 94l to become a hurricane - hurricanetrack.com

Latest computer models show this coming WNW for several days and just skirting the northern Leeward Islands. Intensity forecasts from the NHC's SHIPS model does show this becoming a hurricane so people will want to keep a close eye on how it develops.

models showing 94l to become a hurricane - hurricanetrack.com

Latest computer models show this coming WNW for several days and just skirting the northern Leeward Islands. Intensity forecasts from the NHC's SHIPS model does show this becoming a hurricane so people will want to keep a close eye on how it develops.

VOLUME NOW AT 354,500

but of course and maybe a little picture inset of you like we see in Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog: so be looking for you best pic. But lets say that is optional.

Correct. i am not saying for anyone to hold till end of cane season - that would be silly. what i am saying is there is multiple exit and re-entry points to play out the season from June through October for as much $ as you can make. try to get the first big play right to make a profit. then wait for dip to buy in for potential cane money maker re-investing a portion of your gain for the next profit. Like a cow - you can milk it fow all its worth. One note of caution. when you buy back in set a low point for yourself that you need to sell by in case a profit situation is not happening and you want to get out so you retain a respectable amount of profit you already earned. The other side of the coin is you have a profitable replay and add to your earnings. GLTA and GO NSMG

When Is the Hurricane Season Most Active?
Again according to the AOML, there's a "very peaked season from August to October", with:

78% of the tropical storm days
87% of the "minor" hurricane days
96% of the "major" hurricane days
And within this peak hurricane season, early to mid-September is the pinnacle.
Of course Mother Nature isn't reading any calendars, and every once in a while a tropical cyclone hits out of season -- usually in May or December-- or late in the season: Hurricane Wilma, for instance, battered Cancun and the Riviera Maya on October 21 and 22 2005.

agreed. went to sleep as less than 30% and wake up with greater than 50%. now we have to get through that high shear into those hot spots of your now infamous graph. that graph may even make it to the ibox for memories of 09 if this turns out to be the big one.

Great texting overlay. Picture worth a 1000 words no matter how old you look. Hey, if it holds together when do you expect it to hit those first hot spots you have in its path.

Manchild

guys, i feel a strong undercurrent of momentum building. This is not just hype cause real positive numbers will be there to back it up and be released this week. We also got a cane on its way that they say will be turn back to the west and will be a hurricane sometime next week. We have the makings of a huge volatile mix next week that could explode into a hugh momentum play. A momentum again not based on hype but real facts. kudos to those that are currently in which includes me. i am locked and loaded. kudos to those that are going to get in and are smart emough to do it early and quickly in the week so not to chase the buy. Figures could be out as early as monday so folks sitting on the fence better move quickly or be left in dodge. GO NSMG,GO CANES, GO PR'S.

Thats true. like the guy who kept calling wolve and then when the real one showed up nobody responded to his cry. sad ending

94L has potential to be a hurricane - hurricane track.com

Meanwhile, a strong tropical wave at roughly 10.5N and 25W is slowly getting better organized. The NHC has labeled it as 94L in their early numbering system for suspect areas of tropical weather. Initial computer model tracks show it moving almost due west for the next five days with the potential for it to become a hurricane over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. This could be the big one that hits NSMG territory - buy now - the buy price is already moving up.

94L has potential to be a hurricane - hurricae track.com

Meanwhile, a strong tropical wave at roughly 10.5N and 25W is slowly getting better organized. The NHC has labeled it as 94L in their early numbering system for suspect areas of tropical weather. Initial computer model tracks show it moving almost due west for the next five days with the potential for it to become a hurricane over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic

that would be the ultimate for nsmg if nsmg territory gets hit

yea its still early so lets see how this further develops. you are right about Danny if affects high population area.

understand. was in meetings all day today with no internet access. make sure you do not miss any press release.

whats this off west coast of africa?

whats this off west coast of africa?

red msg 11688 again. i updated it

did you mean - what are my thoughts. well models are mixed right now. some showing danny to become a hurricane - others a tropical storm. take another day for that answer to be settled. questionis how west will it go. most are ruling out fl but not the carolinas. another 24 hrs will finalize the picture more. they say also something will be coming off africa by end of the week and that may become the big story next week.

nothing new other that what i stated that they released 2Q financials for 2008 on sept 5 2008. So if timing holds about the same then could be any day now going into next week. next week ends sept 4. Should be close