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I should clarify further that I am long stocks that have not gone up 30% in the last few weeks - AMCC, JDSU, BKHM, FNSR, SCMR, CIEN. That is my full boat..
I am taking the other position this week that we will be up nicely today, somewaht tomorrow, and strongly up Wednesday, before we make a slightly higher high on Thursday before we consolidate. I am 100% long right now..
Your uptrend until July sounds good. I think around then the market downfall will be attributed to worries around terrorist attacks at the Summer Olympics in Athens.
This link confirms this is finally underway now..
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2004/0322/web-netcents-03-22-04.asp
A very important article from January. I suspect many of our picks will benefit greatly from these government awards later this year. I suspect accumulation is going on in some of the clear beneficiaries of this..NT, BKHM, AUDC...
http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2004/0126/web-netcents-01-28-04.asp
Another reason to stay on the long side of these stocks for the years to come...
Still looks like 3-4 days of up, 2 days of consolidation (possibly a 100% retrace of the coming gains), and then a real good push into the end of April. INTC, NVLS this week,AMCC next week, JDSU,BKHM after that. Should be real nice!
My pick would be BKHM. It's not the safest, but it's much cheaper against its peer JDSU. There is some risk, NT could decide to walk away after 2005, and margins are getting pressured quite a bit right now, but BKHM made some real good acquisitions in the last few years, and the worldwide broadband rollout has to happen for many reasons. Since I expect the dollar to get crushed in the next 3 years, I sm going with this comapany for foriegn exchange safety too...
So much for the "Efficient Market Theory" they taught us in economics, huh?
I used to invest on fundamental reasons alone, using technical analysis to just time my "buy and hold" positions. Then fundamental analysis went out the window with the proliferation of using the internet to tap into equity markets. The internet has created more "traders" than "investors", largely because investing is no longer a "good old boys club" anymore. You can trade anywhere now - in the bathroom on yur cell phone, from your PDA at your grandmothers house, etc. We created this "access anywhere" market, and what we are seeing now is some of the fallout from this vision.
However, you are right that the herd will eventually come with the fundamentals in place, and they will undoubtedly move prices much beyond thier fair value too.
Got to take the pros with the cons in this new world we live in...
BKHM attempting to take out its daily high right now..
Well..now I'm really miffed with this down action, but not disheartened. I'm staying the course over the long weekend on all positions, including my trading positions..
Here comes 2:22...
This is the final low of the day..just a wee bit more AMCC at $6.24. I am now done!
The charts are screaming more up. A distributive candle has not been made. This consolidation is just waiting for more shorts to get on before they ram the sticks up thier a$$. I am not a perma long trader. I short aggresively as well. Chart structures are showing a large rise in the short-term, and the confusion amongst many is helping my cause.
Yes..Up,up, and away.
Added more SCMR at $4.32. I really like the chart structure. eom.
So what do you say we light a fire under this around 1:00pm? Got my lighter..lol!
Yup. I'm convinced now..VIX headed to 14. Strong close and goodw Monday and Tuesday to follow. Perfect storm brewing, shorts fully in, longs scared to hold through the weekend, plenty of people on the sidelines.
FYI - None of the charts I follow looks like a distributive top. They actually look like strong accumulation retrenchments. I am staying in over the weekend to see what's cooking :).
Looking for VIX to approach 14 on this move.
Zeev, this is the time to get in IMHO. Looking for 3 days of strength starting right now..
Going out on a limb and saying we close strongly, starting with the uptrend during lunch..
Well, not what I expected in the AM, but I still anticipate a strong close. We shall see..
This is what my map is telling me (a litte similar to ZEEV's, but different after expiration day)..
We have a huge day tomorrow to about 2090 on the NAZ. We then consolidate to 2050 NAZ during 2 days, and then we blast off to new highs. This time, however, our picks here will finally lead the way BKHM, SCMR, FNSR, AMCC, etc..
No need to fill the gaps at this time. Summer will take care of that for us.
I am really excited now!
ZEEV sees further retrenchment before and after expiration, but to me this just ain't so. Maybe the MOMO's don't participate this time, and value opticals and equipment take on most of the gains until our summer doldrums...
The other map, which is less likely, is that we smash through 2090 tomorrow, and get some upward movement for another 3 days after that before falling hard before expiration. Much less likely IMHO, since it allows all the technical traders to gain from this.
Good luck!
Are we closed this Friday and next Monday, or just Good Friday. Thanks in advance!
YHOO up nicely after report. Could be a huge day tomorrow. We deserve it!
If my map is correct, we should see 4 days of real nice gains now..
Yeah, but unless you have options or are an early investor, you won't get in on the action. I'm sure at some point they will want thier investments liquid, but it could be through a private purchase by a larger strategic company rather than an IPO. We shall see.
Until then, we will have to continue riding the publicly traded VOIP stocks. This time, the bubbling in the industry is for real...
I love Skype. Been a user for 3 months now..
Good. Because I think I'll have to get some in the AM tomorrow on what I hope will be only early morning weaknes.
I was able to scrape some from funds from a newly issued HLOC at 1.99%. Cheap money, but tied to the house. I wouldn't suggest this method for everyone. I plan on using these funds for a 5 day trade only. I see us up and away until Tuesday morning next week, when I suspect the calls will start to get hammered.
Just picked up JDSU at $4.35 eom.
Do you like MANU here for a long term hold? Looks like it can run to fill the gap quickly.
FNSR should have a 8% up day tomorrow on volume to unwind its oversold condition before consolidating further. It's a laggard so far..
SCMR making its move... I love it!
Go..BKHM..Go!! You mangy mutt! LOL!
Boy...our picks better get some steam soon! NAZ up over 100 and the prices of FNSR, SCMR, BKHM, etc. is almost the same. Is my entire portfolio warning? LOL!
I hope to pick up some SONS by the end of the week. Crossing my fingers that I can get it at this price in a few days..
What's up with FNSR today?
Looking at resistant levels over the next 9 months, BKHM should truck to $6 and SCMR to $10-11. I think that AUDC will perform exceptionally well these next 2 years, and thats mostly becuase I work in the VOIP industry. By the way, there is an excellent VON (Voice over the Net) conference in San Diego next week where the private company I have been working with since 1999 will finally be mentioned in a partnership with a VERY LARGE COMPANY. Should be very exciting..
By full retracement, I mean only today's gains. We shall see.