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This is almost like an IPO and just think if the IP sale is announced with a nice infusion of cash to grow the biz... I think we are finally in capable hands and aligned with the shareholders... we had neither w/ the scumbags... and bring in new coverage which should help institutional investment... I am sure these guys are working that crowd and have connections....
it is in public documents... contrast and compare...
it could also be the previous guard was going down a path that favored their own interests vs shareholder interests... perhaps ronin knew of other options... there is reason the old guard did not put up a fight and SK got a mini bronze parachute vs a golden one...
You talking about the asstronomical deal?
read the front page... deals are flowing again now that the tax bill has passed...
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/
bavi and the IP are worth something and a million ways to structure a deal with front ends and back ends and rear ends....
BP prob prefers low down payment with milestones and Avid crew prob prefers de-risking and taking as much front end in order to grow Avid biz while at the same time getting something for possible Bavi success... tough balancing act and lots of number crunching vis a vis risk analyses and NPV stuff...
also do you think the imputed present value of the IP would still be zero if BP agrees to spend $100 mil on the tech? time is of the essence and both sides know it...
as for garnick, sk js and other no longer involved.... that could be a good thing ..... BP has the resources to push the ball forward if there is an interest...
no doubt he had skills.... but he and his crew were borderline criminals with their pay and the moat they put in place to protect themselves at shareholder expense... hopefully the IP is worth quite a bit... we all win and SK is never put into a fiduciary position again... all imo...
on a related subject, looks like someone is making a play for PTSC... the cash that is.... maybe the esteemed ES crew is back to work screwing over other shareholders.. all imo...
i was in real estate for most of my career... i worked with a developer that was a former trammel crow partner... he taught me always have a back door in development... that is, if the intended use doesn't work, the design/location should have a secondary use that should work... thank your lucky stars for avid... that is the back door...
Ronin had the votes... combine tappan, ronin and prob dart and the es crew was toast.... i am thankful i will never have to listen to a SK cc again... "excited... we're in talks" ... and his legacy is tied to ES and crew...
now get rid of PL and MZ and we have a clean slate
i don't think ronin is part of that plan... ronin chased the rats out... thank you ronin... just finish up the cleanup with SK and PL...
Mgmt has done absolutely zero to promote the value of the IP.... they have kept the so called shining light under a barrel... no posters on website from latest Sunrise presentation... the question is why? is there no value and thus they have been lying all the time? or is there value and they are trying to chase the retail shareholders out... the same shareholders that have basically paid the previous BOD's excessive pay for years.... either way we have been dealing with some bad actors and the residue thereof...
we will know the answer soon as shareholders are finally aligned with the BOD...
and SK was a key contributor to the screw the shareholder plan and he's secured his sleazeball reputation along with the three clowns imo..
what's going on behind the scenes...
interesting article on kirk cousins and redskins situation regarding future and free agency... the statement i find interesting...
"But just because the complexion of the market has shifted does not mean the demand for Cousins will wane this offseason. It takes only two teams to build a free-agent market, and the NFL has more than two teams seeking a long-term answer at quarterback that would prefer not to wait for a rookie to develop."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/12/21/the-kirk-cousins-market-may-have-changed-but-demand-has-not/?utm_term=.fadd853dc293
similar parallels to pphm.... substitute Cousins for the IP... a free agent and actively in the market... released from bondage by the recently released BOD.. the IP was the carrot inducing gravy train ticket ...
so if there are at least two BP's playing, we should get a fair deal... the seller is motivated and conditions are as ripe as one could possibly hope for with respect to capital availability and need to improve platforms such as pdl or car-t.... and now even chemo is back in play...
And SK's been neutered and putting has astronomical to work...
Factors in play...
Tax plan will pass which will release billions for biotech M&A ....
Car-t and PDL space still red hot and BP is seeking agents that help...
Reset w/ new mgmt team to throw as much trash out as possible and defer as much rev forward...
NOL analysis for IP sale...
Demand for biologics manufacturing great w/ some barriers to entry w/ regulatory hurdles
So if there was any value with the IP, the timing looks pretty good over the next two months...
That's if there is a pony...
looks like it's the poster number at the conference.... not a new molecule...
Any deal in the works will depend on new tax rates given the impact on NOL's (a lower tax rate decreases value on NOL's) and how repatriated capital is treated. The number crunchers are prob going insane.
From the 2017 annual report
We have federal and state net operating loss (“NOL”) carry forwards which, if we were to become profitable, could be used to offset/defer federal and state income taxes. Our ability to use such carry forwards to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations related to changes in ownership of our stock.
As of April 30, 2017, we had federal and state NOL carry forwards of approximately $392 million and $264 million, respectively, expiring from 2018 to 2037. These NOL carry forwards could potentially be used to offset certain future federal and state income tax liabilities. However, utilization of NOL carry forwards may be subject to a substantial annual limitation pursuant to Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, as well as similar state provisions due to ownership changes that have occurred previously or that could occur in the future. In general, an ownership change, as defined by Section 382, results from transactions increasing the ownership of certain stockholders or public groups in the stock of a corporation by more than 50 percentage points over a three-year period. We performed a detailed analysis of our NOL carry forwards through April 30, 2017 and it was determined that no change in ownership had occurred. However, ownership changes occurring subsequent to April 30, 2017 may impact the utilization of our NOL carry forwards and other tax attributes. Any limitation may result in expiration of a portion of the carry forwards before utilization. If we were not able to utilize our carry forwards, we would be required to use our cash resources to pay taxes that would otherwise have been offset, thereby reducing our liquidity.
Where the pending new tax code goes with this nol crap is anybody's guess. Impact could be $5 mil to $100 mil... WAG
On another note...
As far as SK goes, if there is a CVR component I would not be surprised if he plays a watchdog/babysitter role given his comp could be tied to IP success. My guess is current team wants a front loaded deal as much as possible to jump start Avid and a CVR component to keep the dream alive to appease shareholders.
The timing of any deal depends on how all this stuff shakes out.
ok if you say so... please let the actual players that will be stoking any checks know how this all goes down..
I don't think so... if they got a large upfront, it would be so they give up development... can't have it both ways ... you can't sell the car and expect to drive it...
do you think the forth coming tax bill has something to do with the valuation process? my guess is prob by a factor of maybe $100 mil or more on this possible transaction.... lots of money could be coming back home and looking for place to spend it... and figuring out the NOL issue related to R&D and mechanics of transfer.. way over my head.... and dif bidders (if such is the case) will have different valuations based on each one's situation... if i was getting best and final, i would wait until bill is passed (assuming before year end before jones gets in.) and see what the tax man gives...
the other issue is front load and walk away or take less up front with CVR's .... prob dozens of scenarios to crunch thru..
my guess is current crew wants to expand asap and that requires capital...
and one other thing, part of the deal could be a fixed contract amount for AVID... BP will/could use the service even if hooking up smaller partners/collabs.... no brainer... even a cave man could put this deal together...
real simple... push all the expenses you can to this qtr...push all the rev you can to the next qtr... wipe the slate clean with old mgmt and begin next qtr with an advantage... all the while clean up on cheap shares... greed is good whether new mgmt or old... the prob with the old mgt was they were totally incompetent ....
now that we have a new bod, what will they do if ronin and crew go over the 15% ownership threshold? the moat was there to protect the gravy train and the three clowns....
my guess is sk's walking around Tustin like a newly minted eunuch...the funny thing is all the grand planning for the big parachute in the event of change of control is out the window... if i recall the packages were quite nice... now just a change of name and full neutership...
pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered and greedy a-holes get neutered....
he can still get a nice payday w/ the options w avg of just south of $10 per share.... go SK go.... get it done and go away.... you did the BOD's bidding and it backfired...
This was a take out the trash qtr... except a few more folks need to go... the real issue is what the IP value will bring... that will impact the other question to the capital raise... and it may give them capital for M&A....
my guess is these guys are chomping at the bit to get the biz running so there is motivation to make a deal on the IP ... If there is value in the IP and if a few horses are in the race, we will get "fair Value" which could be $5 million or $5 billion....
And the IB's will come when they are ready... I would not be surprised if relationships are being established.... need for PL to go to complete the house cleaning...
The pay in question was for FY ending 4/30/17. I don't think Ronin had the muscle at that time.
pre ronin... things will change soon..
Sorry mgmt has done absolutely zero to promote the value of the IP.... i would say they have gone out of their way to "hide" the value of the IP...
one can't point the finger at ronin for the lack of IP recognition...
My psychoanalysis of the RG affair which is partly based on an email a major investor had w/ ES right after sunrise flop where the cliff notes in the email basically said that the BOD listened to RG. What choice did they have with zero experience?
1. RG very skilled.... but demoted at DNA when roche took over...
2. RG had something to prove and he also is a big game hunter... so some ego redemption at play possibly.... but a loose canon with obama tweets which makes a lot of sense when one is in active dialogue with FDA...
3. The target to beat at the time was Avastin.... no brainer with Avastin safety profile.
4. PDL changed the entire picture and target... and fast... remember chemo was dead... until it's not and is back in the picture... and the non responders to pdl?
5. RG and crew were in the midst of all the pdl changes but had a side plan to see how bavi and pdl worked. They were smart enough to figure out how to get data with respect to bavi and pdl as it relates to sunrise.... hats of to them if are successful...
6. Sunrise Trial failed.... control arm bad luck...
7. IP still could be very valuable but lack of institutional support due to horrendous BOD caused a severe dilution for dollars dive.
8. The BOD had absolutely no clue as to what, how and why to make any assessment or offer any value whatsoever in navigating the choppy biotech waters. So they listened to RG.
9. RG had nothing to lose... no skin in the game just sweat equity... same with the BOD only they didn't have to sweat that hard... the BOD's biggest challenge was maintaining the moat and they did that by bringing in MZ, a longtime ES player.
And just think of what experience the current BOD brings for say avg $70k or about $500k. And we were paying about $500 k for just one of the clowns with zero experience.
Hopefully the house cleaning continues and SK is in real talks to place the IP.
Thank you Ronin.
like evicting a bad tenant... how many semi empty pizza boxes will be stacked against the back door?
a visual of what happened yesterday... four of them removed...
the fight for the IP... just what kind of carcass are they fighting over?
how much meat is on that bone?
certainly hope so... gotta be nice to own a prop trading firm and probably a pretty strong rolodex with both big investors and other biotechs...
but the three clowns prob have some tricks up their sleeves... maybe DP doubles up and buys 41 shares....
Agree and the delay of the ASM hurts shareholders in terms of executing a plan to monetize the IP and expand Avid. Again, the current BOD puts their interest of entrenchment ahead of shareholders. I spoke at length with a major investor that did quite a bit of DD and they were skeptical of the IP value for several reasons. One of the main reasons is the current crew has zero credibility and a terrible track record of running companies into the ground while making themselves money. Even if the IP was valuable, would anyone believe it when the current crew is part of the company? Another reason was if the IP was so valuable, why did mgmt take so much comp in cash vs options? The sooner we can run the clowns out of town, the better.
At this stage we shall soon see if the IP has value because it is being "weighed" by the market (any BP's etc looking at it) as we speak.
Yes .... let's hope there are some very active folks including retail that run the current BOD and the mgmt lackeys out of town...
interesting bandera added...
special situations....
https://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/bandera+partners/284/
surreal.eom
roswell closed shop a while back.... wonder why? ... after reading ronin's writeup on es biz history, one has to wonder..
the good news is that once the poop is shoveled out, we might have a pony..
and the blatant missing of the russell index how many times? ... enough is enough...
I would rather take a chance on an unknown Ronin (as it relates to pphm) with a solid history of creating value and with significant skin in the game versus taking a chance on proven current mgmt with their behavior of raping and pillaging shareholders with failure after failure and very little skin in the game (while dilution did not matter to them) all imo... all the while thumbing their noses at shareholders with a "you can't touch me attitude"... and then they get religion? and even that is a crock with the "we have to ween ourselves off this gravy train shtick"
Look at the communication from Ronin vs mgmt since the earliest we publicly know of Ronin's involvement...
real tough choices.... not
All the more reason the IP needs to be in better hands. The IP has value... just need to unlock it and the first step is removal of the BOD.