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September? Try September of 2024.
My CAGR calcs says JPS are worth about 5% of par ...
but
not today
there is sense of higher price accumulation for commons
that being said, anything is possible, could all depend on scotus
BUT??
who knows for sure, for the record, i hate JPS but i constantly defend them ... but im just saying there is a chance in this world for all
Go fnma!
What rarely happens is Commons go up on much higher $volume than JPS. That is what makes this a more interesting move ...
Volume for Commons vs JPS is telling the story right now. FNMAS, which is probably the most liquid JPS issuance, is at 131k shares = $700k traded.
Commons is at 8.3 million shares at $17 million. Given the past couple years that is pretty decent volume difference.
Navy - I haven't seen that ... that is amazing! Goes direct to motive ... Maybe we get more than just liquidation pref being written down to 0.
Rick, there may be no settlement for a long time ...
JPS is a "quagmire" trade per Tim Howard, a former CFO of the GSEs ... the latest narrative is subordinate share classes will get dividends per our benevolent government ...
Giggidy, Giggidy ...
Buckle up, JPS ... it's going to be a long wait even after a favorable Scotus ruling ...
Happy, disagree ... there is such a thing built into most if not all human languages called the “conditional tense.”
Learn it, know it, live it ... Spicoli
A lot longer than 6 months ...
Sortman - all litigation must be settled before cap raises. A settlement will probably need a judge to sign off on the settlement ... that is important...
It would be extremely early imo, but stranger things have happened ...
The greatest living american does it again ... TB12 on to the Super Bowl!
#GOAT!
No cash to buy warrants? They’ll get a loan ...
If Scotus deems the PSPA paid, then I don’t see how the gov can take 80% of the company. Doesn’t make any sense and I’m sure there would be all sorts of legal issues with it.
Warrants can be exercised and bought by the company - exercise means payment, not necessarily dilution.
The below is related to the bank bailouts. The link is a good read to determine how Treasury methodically approaches these things, where they really don’t attempt to take advantage of TARP recipients.
I believe the LP goes to 0 with Scotus (direct or basically done in lower courts via summary judgement). I also believe the warrants will be sold back relatively cheaply.
Donot, if there are 5 billion shares outstanding for Fannie when all said and done, that is 30 to 60 shareprice.
The CBO says a P/E of 15 for Fannie can be expected. Adjust as needed to get ranges but if you have a 15 P/E, 15 billion outstanding shares ( I don’t believe that will happen), and $15 billion in earnings per yeqr, then you are at $15 per share.
I’m betting on 5 billion outstanding which gets into Ackman’s eventual $40s per share calc.
I didn’t know he owned commons also. Thanks, Guido, seems he is trying to rally the JPS as they’ve retraced more (im trying be nice).
Eternal, I think he is trying to assure his shareholders. He prefers the preferred shares and discusses TIAA CREF, and a hedge fund about how they are in preferreds. The key bere is TIAA is hyper conservative and it is understandable for them to be in pref. The other company is in both pref and commons.
I think this latest interview was for his clients, not the investorsunite crowd.
Around the 42min mark Pags “seems” to say, as it is more his streaming thoughts than prepared statement, that the warrants don’t seem to be a problem for commons and therefore can’t be a problem for JPS.
If others can listen to that 42min section and provide feedback, that’d be gr8. I watched it 3 times to try and discern what exactly he was saying.
You need to remeber that the folks on that call are his clients, meaning indirectly JPS. No problem with him highlighting his investment to his clients ...
Rob - that is an excellent article ... it’s gonna be a while ... more retained earnings ... the cap rule will most likely come way down by the Dems ... I think the Dems will be better only b.c Calabria was so far out of touch on the cap rule.
The fin gov team - fisoc - will have new players who will recommend a diff approach to capital requirements. Pags reliance on a 4 page document from fisoc thinking the cap rule will stay is also naive. This whole Calabria era will be undone ... Funny ...
Great - and FnF will not provide settlement terms to the detriment of commons, especially if Scotus rules in our favor ... I wish you well on your legal challenge ... I’m focusing on Scotus ... may you get your dividends turned back on, or win damages ...
I think Pags publicly is more above board - who knows privately. Bove is just Bove and lost all credibility...
Yep, you could see similarities between his statements and the exaggerations made on this board.
Rick, that’d be scary. We could go back and forth from utility to full free market and back and forth over the next 20 years if its up to the FHFA regulator ... I think it needs broader consensus than being at the whim of a regulator, right?
Navy, I think his presentation was good. Good to hear his perspective, I do think he is being naive on the affordable housing push that Dems are sure to bake into their FHFA person.
I think once Scotus rules, and providing it is favorable on all fronts, then I think Biden will want the FHFA to mold the exit of conservatorship to his liking and not rush a capital raise.
I think they hold onto FnF until the 3rd year or 4th year of his presidency and then release them. They may even push for a utility model in congress to see where it goes (I think its DOA), but I think they are going to try ...
My opinion ...
Vary good update!
Fudge packing the Fannie and boy do I hear a lot of Yellen ...
What? I'm not referring to dividends at all. Dividends are the trade for JPS. Dividends are not the trade for commons.
It's that simple ...
Holden - 100% False - CBO gives 3 scenarios where 2 have JPS are left twisting in the wind. Commons trade at a 15 p/e.
Fence, I can name that tune in 3 months ...
I’d like to know the legal sources Hackerman interviewed for the legal opinion.
At least Hackerman is now accurately reporting $300 billion+ has been repaid to the gov.
We can ignore Parrot. The death spiral, etc., isn’t even used in front of Scotus. Just like may vs shall, etc., the death spiral is not represented b.c Scotus would laugh the gov out of court.
Chronic, I agree the odds are not high Scotus will bulldoze the FHFA, but the remedy Collins is requesting does not preclude Scotus from deciding the FHFA needs to go, or providing any number of alternative paths.
Now he has a JD? Sorry, Guido, this guy has negative credibility at this point, as do his buddies. They couldn’t have been farther off on the Big Bang. And now, all of the sudden, the 5th en banc becomes front and center?
Amateur hour ...
Tim Howard just set midas straight after his confusion for soo long.
More amateur hour ...
Look at the setup (chart) on FNMAS. Wash, rinse, repeat til Scotus.
You're following quagmire now after his track record is horrible?
FNMAS up on 39k shares. Buy more JPS ... please buy more right now!
This is how OTC accumulation happens in commons ... look closer ...
Donot - where is the JPS volume? Looks like commons are being accumulated while JPS are going up on no volume. Hmmm ...