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You're forgetting about Lamberth's Court (already Remanded). The JPS Claims there equate to roughly 150% of Par.
Don't be fooled by the Common [Non]sense. JPS are clearly in the driver's seat and have nowhere to go but up from here!
Most don't want to Convert. Dividends are better!
Conversion only occurs in scenarios where JPS can get much more than Par via a Conversion to Commons.
Commons hit sub-$1 without action before January 20th.
And that action can't be the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan, otherwise Commons will be sub-$0.50 in that scenario.
The clock is ticking for Commons.
#TickTock
Better Conversion terms will be offered by GSEs.
No reason to Convert now.
Good thing we know that's not within the realm of possibilities for FNMA.
Not without a HUGE Reverse Split
Let's be happy they are only taking 49.9%. They could go the Sr. Preferred Cramdown route and end up getting ~99% of Commons.
Commons' Clock is quite literally ticking. The Market senses this.
It's coming amigos!!
Agreed. Lower FNMA prices are highly likely.
The uncertainty of SCOTUS + Tax loss season is coming.
Neither of those bode well for Commons.
That hasn't been true the last several days, weeks, months, or years.
Sorry, but your statement falls flat on its face.
They'd have to be crazy! Or Gambling their life savings.
Are you sure though? This is from Freddie's 10-K:
100% FNMA Facts!
GSE Big Bang is the real BOOM.
And it's coming amigos
I couldn't bring myself to buy Commons either. There's still too much overhang and uncertainty.
Not to mention, the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan is very much in play. This may become the Mnuchin Dilution Solution, so we must be mindful of this.
There's a lot of us. But most just join the conversation on the FNMA board since that's where all the action is anyway
That is an excellent FNMA Fact!
Isn't there a letter from the SEC stating Jr. Preferreds aren't allowed to continue to outperform Commons?
As if the 5-year performance wasn't enough of an indicator, we can now look at the 1-month performance and see Commons continue to be Junk
Can we file a lawsuit to prevent JPS from continuing to go up while FNMA is stuck below $2 still?
Hard to buy Commons with imminent JPS Conversion.
I'm tempted to Gamble a little on FNMA with the other Average Joes, but I think Jr. Preferreds will get generous Conversion terms.
Still, FNMA might be worth a Gamble down here for a quick pop.
Then again, she might just keep dropping as the Mnuchin Dilution Solution becomes more apparent to the Market.
It's important to stick to the FNMA Facts.
Commons are probably worth a Gamble at the current JPS:Commons ratio.
But FNMA is far from an investment, it's just a speculative gamble.
There's nothing wrong with Gambling.
Maybe after a 10:1 or 15:1 Reverse Split Commons will be worth $25-35.
FNMA won't get there any other way unfortunately.
Only Commons it seems. JPS are absolutely ripping!
Commons' reality is crashing down as the FNMA Facts I've discussed for the last few years are now becoming reality.
I'm sure Commons will have a huge bounce at some point. But from what price level is what matters. If they jump 40% from $1.50, then Commons are right back to where they started and it's nothing to be excited about.
Let's hope everyone remembers to Sell the Pop as FNMA Always Drops.
Are you ready for your Escrow FNMA shares? Sheila Bair is about to pull another WaMu on us. She's the Chair of the Board now.
History is repeating itself!
New Lows are Bullish for FNMA, right?
Everything is on the table! Even SPS Cramdown.
This is why Commons are getting very weak and JPS are gaining strength.
Commons don't have a leg left to stand on. They will go where Treasury/FHFA want them.
No Bueno Amigos
All options are on the table for Commons. If any resolution needs to occur, then we will have to accept their decision. Whatever it may be.
FNMA has moved on to the Acceptance Stage. That's great to see!
FNMA needs to fill the Gap at ~$1.65. That's what keeps holding her back.
This is certainly possible. Scary stuff!
We'll probably see them do just that!
Anything is possible
Thanks for sharing these FNMA Facts.
Looks like Commons don't get a vote until the GSEs are much more well capitalized, even if they're out of Conservatorship.
Very interesting!
FNMAS held up like a champ today, especially compared to Commons.
JPS proving their resilience.
Total lack of buyers after the initial sell-off and slight rebound.
Doesn't bode well for FNMA unless the buyers step up in power hour.
YUGE Volume and under $1.90 resistance. Not good! FNMA needs to turn it around quickly or there's a lot more pain to come in the days and weeks ahead.
I thought it was OTC/MM manipulation, LOL!!
Looks like sub-$1 FNMA might be incoming. Biden is very bad for GSE resolution, at least one that benefits Commons.
Everyone seems to be jumping ship or swapping to JPS now.
Sorry amigos, this trade looks like it's over.
Sell the Pops, FNMA Always Drops. Yikes!