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Here comes monday ....
Here come thursday ....
Here comes Wednesday ...
here comes tuesday
"long term" is now a relative term
those who have been here for two years call themselves long term holders and i wouldn't call them wrong
but you also have those decaders (i don't even know that this word actually exists) but some of us have been here for more than a decade ... now thats definitely long term
Here comes monday
yes and one year in the future WILL be the year LOL ROTFL
Hang in there, i'm also about 80% + down, nothing to cheer about, but i have learned a lot from this ADXS experience
i wouldn't jump to that conclusion.
i work in medicine
i work in research
i recruit to clinical trials
it might take much longer than you think
having said that i hope they could finish recruiting ASAP because results will also need time after recruitment is done we have the follow up period
the good thing though is that trials are still proceeding and i know that hold will be lifted soon
slow and steady wins the race ... but it has been too slow at ADXS :)
been here ten years one or 2 more are nothing at this point
good luck people
"-Any selling of another 20% stake for a record low stock price, now under $2, would obliterate shareholder value even more, making the most sensible option to sell the company now (unless management proves to be completely self-serving, but I don't think this is the case because that is why O'Connor was replaced) "
Any management has duty towards company and shareholders, but towards company first, most of the time for companies with income taking good care of the company will also take good care of shareholders. For early stage companies and companies with negative income hard decisions need to be made, to make it clear retail shareholders are NOT significant to company. they couldn't care less about you or me or anyone else on this board even their long time friends and large shareholders. BOD doesn't even care about Adage or other big players as well the only reason why they play nicer with them is because they can affect share price/publicity and outcome more than a retailer. BOD main focus is company survival and they would reverse split and dilute a million times without hesitation to keep company going forward. The difference between companies in such situations is their management team when they are able to manage little to no resources in an excellent manner and maintain shareholder value. so don't for a second think that anyone at ADXS isn't sleeping at night because everyone on this board is in the red. they don't know us, they don't care about us.
Other than that i agree with what you said in your post.
something is cookin more so because of the blackout rather than anything else they are probably trying to be careful not to slip anything out by mistake so decided to go for complete blackout which in and of itself is telling ...
i say we might hear news but i doubt its buy out, i also hope its not buy out especially from this price, even a 100 % premium won't get our money back or even close. we need to appreciate and then buy out. maybe license AXAL or some EU deal for AXAL raise sure price a bit and then AMGEN buyout for NEO/HOT... that would be better i guess
I think i started buying in 2009, i know it was after results of first 13 patients or so dosed with vaccine and they reported the survival data, this was before any organized trial, these were initial experimental patients. i'm not sure who was spamming the boards at that time but there was one grandiose poster who pretended to know everything (he was on google board)
i bought in because of the science, i felt its an extreme breakthrough to have a cancer vaccine.
i still think the science is cool but after spending 12 years with a brokerage account and having held ADXS for 9-10 years and having dealt with ADXs and few other stocks at this point i think market is heavily manipulated and pegged against retailers. i think i did learn a thing or two from my past 10 years in the market. nothing earth shattering. I kept on saying (and posting) that i'm done buying, i'm done buying and i kept on buying and adding !! last time i added was last month. I'm here till the end. GLTA
Busy at work ... not much to add to the discussions, i do check everyone's posts almost daily, Just waiting for something to happen like the rest on this board :)
here is some speculation on my part. The "big players" covered their short positions with the 2 $ offering and then took some more shares for the long ride as they prepare to ride this up. the remaining short positions are probably mostly retail who will be fried on monday trying to cover after ADXS announces closing of offering as well as some sort of deal with good upfront money leading to reassurance with regards to no more dilution needed. to add fuel to the fire they can also cancel the request for the additional shares which will heat the frying pan even more. some shorts will lose their shirts but these are the simple shorts, the retail shorts just like us the retail longs have lost our minds following and owning this. Tomorrow will tell, even if tomorrow doesn't hold all the answers i think by the end of march the ADXS story will be all said and done, The time has come ...
i was hoping for 30 to 60 but i will take 15-20 over 2 $ ANYTIME ROTFL
The only Good thing about dilution is Dan gets to taste his medicine without having access to the ATM ROTFL
Is this a short cover up ? the amount of shares is enough to cover all outstanding short shares, is this the under table deal to lift the shorts grip off and where everyone is happy (except for retail longs) ?? i guess we will find out soon.
probably the only thing at this time that will make ADXS viable again is to commercialize our first construct on our own. Pharma are not dealing because they see a weak company and are trying to get it for cheap, management is not dealing because they see the potential (i hope) and are trying to realize that potential. a bad deal is harmful, dilution is harmful that's why i guess only viable option remaining is to commercialize our first construct and go from there. also lets see who will be buying in on that offer. who is getting these 10 million shares... interesting number, close to the short shares outstanding, is this the under table deal of the century to lift the foot of the shorts off our neck... lets see
funny thing is you think its simple
i don't disagree with you i am frustrated as well, i've been here ten years i'm about 80% in the red, but i can assure you things are not as simple as you are saying.
you think making a deal is just like that, it comes from thin air, you don't think AMGN would be trying to stiff the company and twist thier arms to get a good deal for themselves, a deal at this point in time will be from a point of weakness and dilution is also the same thing, but if you want to look long term, probably launching our first construct on our own is the only thing that might make the company viable again.
i agree with you that we have to be persistent in funding that is why i voted all my shares FOR the share increase but also voted against ALL directors, same management same outcome and with ADXS it seems also that different management is also same outcome. yes i can't resist the low price but how much is enough ???
maybe in a week in march if price is still low ... no reserves at this point
But then again with watching the past 10 years unfold at ADXS i'm not sure i want to add anymore ... we'll see
commercialization is the only real turning point, of course small turning points along the road are deals with pharma....
still waiting here
although i agree good news will always be good news
we don't want news with a crashing market it will fall on deaf ears
number 3
its not the same, this is more like you will get paid 20 million dollars wether you play good or bad
? is it the length of the post or what i said ? or both :)
Easy having been here for about 10 years i feel your pain, having invested and lost in another upstart biofuel (PBOF) company in the past, one thing is for sure these companies don't focus on the share holder they focus on the company and themselves. PBOF for example they diluted to keep on building the biofuel plants and promising to finish construction soon, blah blah blah and then when company was ready to sell a real product (by that time it was a penny stock at 0.001) they bought it out and too it private.
As for ADXS them not caring about you or me is not personal, they have to think about keeping the company afloat and if that means dilution so be it, you the investor bought when you wanted to buy, you misread the timelines or whatever, they told you anyways that the timelines are not accurate and not guaranteed but you decided to buy when you did, you decided to hold when you did and YOU decided to sell when you did (or when you do)
Its very easy for me to put myself in Lombardo's shoes i have a company getting closer and closer to a product that i can commercialize my only problem is i need more cash, i can get that cash via a deal which pharma re giving me a hard time about because they know i need the money, or i can show pharma i don't care and i can raise my own money.
My problem is not the dilution, i understand that a company that doesn't sell anything and has lots of payments needs income/cash and only way to do that might be dilution. my problem is the bonuses they keep on giving themselves when they have nothing to show for it.
i might be wrong but i have feeling that they will have an offering soon at around 3 $ and thats why the price has been pegged here for a while, as you know when a company does an offering they say its based on average of last 2 weeks of trading etc so this might be why we have been held at 3 but of course i might be just making things up.
Good luck
Please define what is considered LARGE share holder this is a very relative term ...
I agree, good news brought in some buying pressure this buying pressure is both from new longs (mostly retail) and shorts, shorts buying is not to cover but to short again when price peaks for the day. as you can see the heavy volume in AM and then how they slowly drag it down with low volume. shorts are playing the game. we just need more good news at faster pace. we will get there.
good luck everyone
nothing of material significance but hoping that will change, i'm sure major news will not be tweeted but rather put out in a PR, its just that the activity level seems to be ramping up ... you know and hope drives us all :)
heavy tweeting from ADXS, after being silent for a while they started a few tweets last week and are already at 9 tweets/retweets today. Activating social media, ramping up news.... here comes the big news
the longer we are without news means the closer we are to news
I agree this feels like a make or break year for one main reason, the need to raise cash, this is not waiting for trial results that might take one, two or three years, it HAS TO HAPPEN in the next few months. Now it can happen from a position of strength like positive Keytruda combo trial results and PPS appreciation and more licensing/buyout whatever you want to call non dilutive funding or it could happen from weak standpoint or from the verge of bankruptcy standpoint with negative combo results and going back to penny range.
This is the year my friends
not in my experience, here are some examples:
"In Europe:
HeartMate II : BTT and DT in November 2005
HeartWare : BTT in 2009 and DT in 2012.
In the USA:
HeartMate II : BTT since 2008 and as a DT since 2010
HeartWare : BTT since 2010 and for DT in 2017"
I have other examples as well
but again i might be talking about a narrow field but the broader trend is what you mentioned (which i doubt otherwise the FDA wouldn't feel so compelled to release this change in direction for approvals)
there was a new FDA advisory today or yesterday saying the FDA is trying to work with companies to get products into US market at same time as "other markets" as we all know there has always been a delay between products rolling in europe and then waiting for few more years and more studies for approval by FDA in US. i'm not sure if this statement/advisory has any effect on us, but if FDA is making it easier to get approval we just might get our europe and US approval at same time with current available data rather than having to wait for AIM2CERV results.
I hope our management in is contact with FDA to see if we can benefit from this new regulation by FDA
I don't think we will need to wait till 2019 as we are running out of cash this year. i believe something has to happen THIS year. Even if it is some dilution, depending on terms if company able to raise enough money to remove cash as going concern i have seen companies in past when after dilution the stock price actually went up not just proportional to cash value but because companies were able to take their products to market. so if ADXS miraculously raises 200 million $ which will carry company through results of AIM2CERV for example that might be enough to cause a relief rally. of course the flip of the coin is that we are manipulated like crazy and no matter what happens we will always be where "They" want us to be.
I'm just waiting here until something happens ... whatever it is
Becuase we know his M .O. first comes the pump, then the capital raise, then as soon as that happens starts losing value. so if you time it well you can sell with the pump.
PS I have not bought anything i'm just trying to explain the others rational
i'm still laying low and waiting on my ADXS shares
ARIA got news buyout on January 9 2017, that was about one year ago, i'm not saying we get the same news at the same time, i'm just saying anything is possible anytime :)
wait for it
wait for it
Selling is also part of what i mentioned in point number one whether selling a franchise or the whole company, But how much premium do you think you can get on a 3 dollar company ? They must appraise to the real potential otherwise a sale is useless. so a full sale at this point for a decent price is probably out of the question.
The path is obviuos, ADXS needs money to go beyond 2018, there are many roads to get money and all scenarios i have in mind are good except for one. Here they are:
First they can get money from non dilutive sources mainly upfront money on collaborative deals, commercialization (unlikely to be significant at this point), selling a construct/franchise, re negotiating existing Deal mainly with AMGEN, etc as these may or may not happen ANY MOMENT as negotiations are always ongoing, ADXS management can be counting on something that is in the works and they know will work and are puttiong final touch etc so they know they don't need to dilute or they don't have anything definitive and are thinking of diluting in the next few months to keep company afloat which brings us to the Second option of Dilution.
In the event of dilution there are two options one is definitely much better than the other. lets assume they are trying to get 100 million $ to last for another year and a half assuming same burn rate they can do that by selling 40 million shares at 2.5 because almost always offerings are lower than market, adding 40 million shares is about doubling our shares outstanding, that would be destructive for us Long timers. another option would be to pump the price to 10 $ and sell only 10 million shares which will get them the 100 million they are looking for and this would be more tolerable.
If you are thinking what do i mean by pump the price up just check NXTD over past week, they put out 2 PR's back to back on 2 consecutive days, they brought up price from 1.2 to 6 (went as high as 8) and then reported offering at 4 $ on the third day. so instead of rolling the offering at 1 $ they did that at 4 so they had to sell a quarter of the shares they would have sold to get the same amount of money.
As you can see all options above are good except for one which is to dilute at current price. lets hope management reads this post LOL
It would be great if they have their eyes on few milestones for some income along with cutting costs like they are doing maybe with some surprise milestone payments they can push our money to last longer until we have EU approval and some sales from canine and EU decreasing risk of dilution.
Also its not unheard of the possibility that they might renegotiate agreements where they get more payments for sooner milestones etc (of course its hard to do this but i've seen it before)
Question: what was our milestone for FDA approval of NEO IND which according to 10 K was accepted in 2017 i'm not sure if there was a milestone payment and how much it was, anyone ?
Back to back news on 2 consecutive days is also not impossible, just check NXTD how it catapulted with two days back to back PR releases so who knows maybe we still get something tomorrow
Banks if there are dark forces do you think they would go after a company with good management or bad management ? they will attack the weak prey, and i agree with most of what you said but this conspiracy theory is not all non sense. i was here before justice and china and still here after they left, i don't need anyone to hold my hand. i know i am the ultimate person responsible for triggering a buy or sell order in my account and so is everyone else we all make our own decisions based on all the input we see.