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"ADXS 11-001 Vaccination Prior to Robotic Surgery, HPV-Positive Oropharyngeal" trial timeline got pushed by two years. Updated 5 days ago. Dr Sikora's been making a slow progress.
Primary Completion: August 2020 [Anticipated ] August 2022 [Anticipated ]
Study Completion: August 2021 [Anticipated ] August 2023 [Anticipated ]
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT02002182?A=11&B=12&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
Someone has been trying hard to elevate the share price before a major dilution event. Fluff PRs, especially this "new patent" PR this morning strongly reminisces the chain of event that resulted in the 1st round of dilution 13 months ago. This one seems to be no different. Crescendo before AACR and then what? A deal? Could be, but it's so hard to time the deal...
I'm guessing if we don't a major news this week, we are into a major crash next week. April Fool's Day will be a milestone day for us.
Does anyone expect a Friday after the bell surprise? I hope it's not a R/S bomb.
News -> SP rise -> Secondary: hint for ADXS management.
These are not "journalists". Zacks utilizes either AI or slave labor from Kanpur or Nagpur. Even AIs can be run from servers located in Pune. All this to ensure quality analyses for meticulous stock pickers.
Friday morning tidbit:
It's been exactly two months since the Aim2Cerv trial was put on partial hold. Time to get it lifted and get some clarity about the trial protocol changes.
I wish I knew. I'd be rich then.
Fintel does not show anything new, while whalewisdom shows two post-Q4 filings:
BELPOINTE ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC 0 0.04 Sold All 82,000 0.0000% 13F 2018-12-31 2019-03-06
TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS 0 0.00 Sold All 15,089 0.0000% 13F 2018-12-31 2019-03-04
These are relatively small transactions. As the volume has been large recently and no entity filed F4 or modified 13G, I'd assume they are trying to stay beneath 5% threshold for some or other reasons. We won't likely see regular 13Fs until mid-May, but something is brewing in Advaxistan.
Wednesday morning tidbit:
After the R/S announcements, how these two companies have fared:
1) CLDX: down 37% ( 7.55 close price on 2/7/19, now at 4.79 following 1:15 r/s);
2) CRMD: down 15% (1.80 at the close on 3/14/19, the r/s announced not implemented yet, now at 1.54);
Bio gravity is the fundamental law.
The company's intent here is pretty clear:
They think that the share price will spike once the abstracts are released and presented so that they immediately run an offering. It all comes down to one question: Is data strong enough to warrant a spike? We shall see within two weeks. So far, the company has had a history of miscalculating the effects and the significance of the clinical data they have released. Last two times, the management tried to pump the share price before the secondaries by issuing fluff PRs, rehashing old data, and the markets did not buy that. This time it looks like there's some strong force behind this cycle -- we see a surprisingly strong support for the share price. It looks like it's more than the AACR presentations -- it might be something to do with an upcoming deal. Thus, I'm counting not just on AACR data, but something more important after this conference. Deal or data -- nothing else matta...
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Also, the completion data of Ph2 for anorectal canal carcinoma is now May '19. Was May '22. What gives?
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT02399813?A=17&B=18&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
Not sure if this was posted here, but it looks like the completion timelines for Aim2Cerv have been extended by three (3) years: from 06/21 to 10/24. Does it have anything to do with SPA (not approved yet) or the current hold? It definitely sounds like this will take forever to finish...
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT02853604?A=8&B=9&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageTop
I did not ask that question -- you did.
Dew,
Your scenario could be plausible, however, it leaves the following out of the consideration: a weak data at the AACR. Then what? If ADXS decides to go ahead with the raise after the weak or not-so-great data is publicized, then the raise would result in a massive collapse of the share price. That would be a proverbial nail in the head. Raise from the position of weakness is a death sentence for us. Don't you agree?
Ha, they reduced the exercise price!
Item 3.03. Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders.
On March 15, 2019, the exercise price of warrants issued by Advaxis, Inc. (the Company) in September 2018 was reduced from $1.50 per share of the Company’s common stock to $0.30 per share. The reduction was the result of issuance of the Company’s common stock in exchange for warrants held by some warrant holders.
Any bomb dropped after the bell? Would not be funny...
Advaxis management did a lot of "crazy" things lately. As far as the secondaries concerned, where are those 7M unaccounted shares from the 2ndary a year ago? What about 3M shares that are still "nowhere to be seen"? Why this time is any different? Shady at best this management is.
Who's the owner of those 12M warrants? CVI? Someone else?
Mystery is exacerbated with the miraculous disappearance of about 7M shares after the 1st secondary a year ago. Few million shares were also "missing" after Round 2 six months ago. Now this? Ken is in bed with vicious predators.
Is it strange that nobody has talked about "offer sheets" for a long while? Yes, I thought so.
It's now pretty clear the reason of the recent SP rise. The warrant holders expecting the swap created this run-up and then shorted heavily knowing they'd get free shares to cover. Notice the 15-day period, sufficient to hide this machination before the short report is due.
They'll cover all of their naked shorts, and then dump free shares and make money both ways. I see the share price taking a trip 20 cents. However, I expect a R/S news within few days, more likely today after the bell.
Sucks to be in Advaxis.
You are trying to stretch it, Iggy. There's only one reason for this cashless swap -- to entice the current warrant holders to participate in another round of dilution. The swap implies the share price was not expected to go beyond $1.50 ceiling any time soon.
Wash, rinse, repeat...
The whole warrant "swap" stinks up to the heavens...
What the hell the CEO/CFO were thinking? The warrant holders still had ~5 years to exercise or not. I'm guessing they are using them to cover their short positions. Thus, this current run-up.
They were supposed to be exercised at $1.50, but we ended up just issuing 12M free shares. Got nothing in return. Bizzaro world.
The company should get about $20M. Why it's on the SEC filing?
Since there's has not been a PR yesterday after the bell and this pre-market hours, I would assume we will see a PR after the close today. Based on my experience, Friday after the bell PRs are mostly negative. This run-up appears to be more likely orchestrated by some fund(s) to short into share price momentum. AACR data is too far away to warrant such large volumes in the past two days. Something smells...
Lots of new faces popped up today while some of the permanents are AWOL.
Interesting...
I'd like to see a PR either today after the bell or tomorrow morning. If nothing happens, I'd be inclined to think this event was nothing but a bull trap. So far, no confirmation of any theories floated here.
If I were an entity that has an advance knowledge of:
1) R/S is coming soon, and
2) it will be followed by a secondary
then I would do the following:
a) "invest" ~$10M to generate a huge volume and a parabolic SP rise and attract a bunch of day traders;
b) start selling once the SP rises above 30% and short the heck out of it;
c) wait for the inevitable and then cover (naked) shorts.
This scenario is entirely possible with micro caps like ADXS.
It's just one of the possibilities of what transpired in the past 30 hours or so, and it could turn out to be the case. But I believe something else is happening, and it's not the scenario above.
We are #2 on "Unusual Volume" list on CNBC. Someone's paying attention.
It's possible that the run-up is related to the AACR presentations, but it could be related to some leaks due to ongoing negotiations with potential partners.
We have had 6 trading days when volume exceeded 1.5M since the start of '19. Five of those 6 were green days, however, there has not been any follow through after the run-ups. The largest volume day (1/7/19, over 6M shares) was followed by a red candle day (volume exceeded 2M shares).
If we see a volume over 2M shares today and the share price up by few % points, then I'd say someone is accumulating in an anticipation of a deal. We shall see.
2015 redux?
We had a nice run up yesterday on a good volume, however, I'm more interested in seeing what happens today. If we get a follow through today, then something is happening behind the curtains. It'd be exciting to get a partnership news BEFORE any R/S or a secondary.
Keeping my fingers crossed.
Thanks for the clarification, Dew.