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Really. Your logic totally escapes me.
The staffing information was drawn from SGLB hiring announcements as well as Linked In. If you have access to more current or accurate information, please share.
Correct me if I misinterpreted the head count but what I'm seeing in terms of actual SGLB employees is:
Mark: CEO
Amanda: Business Mgr.
Janet: Controller
Ron Fisher: Bus. Development
Mathias Roybal: Engineer
Lars Jacquemetton: Engineer
and Castro/Clark working offsite with Honeywell.
Vivek and Wilke are part-time consultants
So, apparently there are two full time SGLB engineers at work in the Santa Fe facilities out of a total of eight actual SGLB employees (two of which are administrative,Amanda and Janet). This does not seem to be much of a major ramp up for further development.
GE has been evaluating and testing Printrite3D in their facilities for more than 2.5 years now without placing a single order or signaling that they are going to utilize the technology in a production mode. To predict that they are going to suddenly integrate Printrite into their mass production processes when they achieve full production is simply wishful thinking. Can you point to any verifiable fact that supports this assertion? Yes, I know, Mark tells us they are in lock-step with GE. That assertion would seem to be about as valid as his credability in meeting developmental delivery dates.
Of course you are exactly right and it is refreshing to see that others are finally coming to recognize what I have felt has been the problem with SGLB since I first became aquainted with the firm. Mark and Vivek (and Thacker, for that matter) are scientist academics. Their reward comes not from making money but from being recognized by their peers for their scientific accomplishments and breakthroughs. If they happen to make money along the way that is all well and good but it is not their prime motivation. So long as we have a BOD made up of Cola, Thacker and O'Mara nothing is going to change. I had great hopes when O'Mara joined the Board but he has clearly been a "rubber stamp" board member and has not come close to living up to his fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. Until the majority of the Board is made up of independent directors with an SOB business person at the helm you can expect the lack of business success to continue. As a further sidenote, I was under the impression that SGLB had something like a dozen full time employees at this point after the spate of recent hirings. Every web site that I review however claims that they have only four full time employees (could well be out-of- date, but if so should certainly be corrected). It also gives me pause when Cola lists himself, Dave, Thacker and Yaple as the "key employees" of the corporation, when in fact none of them but Cola are actually employees. That's my rant for the day. It usually falls on deaf ears, but I'm wondering how long that will continue if Mark does not show some significant results, and soon.
By my calculations SGLB would have to be generating more than 60 million dollars in revenue for the stock to reach a dollar. Assuming that they generated a 25% net profit that would give them 15 million net and once again assuming a PE ratio of 40 the company would have a capitalization of 600 million and each share would be worth a bit over .96. You can make your own assumptions about revenue, net, and PE ratios to arrive at your own figures but needless to say anything approaching a dollar a share is a good ways into the future, if ever.
To your point about the accelerating rate of change in the industry (a point I think everyone here agrees upon) here is another technique that would seem to even surpass Carbon 3D in terms of speed and accuracy: http://3dprint.com/53286/gizmo-3d-printers-fastest/.
The seeming slow pace of acceptance (in terms of major orders) for SGLB's solutions is worrisome in that the pace of change and improvement in 3D printing techiques could minimize the need for their offerings over a fairly short period of time. I think it is naive as well to believe that others are not working on 3D quality control solutions that may be price or quality competitive (or both) with SGLB's offerings. A major contract would remove a great deal of the concern, but one is needed soon.
To your point about the accelerating rate of change in the industry (a point I think everyone here agrees upon) here is another technique that would seem to even surpass Carbon 3D in terms of speed and accuracy: http://3dprint.com/53286/gizmo-3d-printers-fastest/.
The seeming slow pace of acceptance (in terms of major orders) for SGLB's solutions is worrisome in that the pace of change and improvement in 3D printing techiques could minimize the need for their offerings over a fairly short period of time. I think it is naive as well to believe that others are not working on 3D quality control solutions that may be price or quality competitive (or both) with SGLB's offerings. A major contract would remove a great deal of the concern, but one is needed soon.
You are exactly right. Beta testing is live "testing" in a user environment. Instead of stating that Deform was entering it's final test phase, they use the terms "launch", and "installed" which to most readers who don't understand "beta" implied a finished marketable product. To my knowledge the product is yet to be released for general use. I believe this mild deception was not unintentional due to the numerous delays and missed announced completion dates that the product incurred. Just left a bad taste in my mouth.
Great post. The facts you point out are largely ignored here and bringing them up will get you a series of rebuttals about how bright the future is bound to be. I share your uneasiness about just how transparent management has been. I found their announcement of the "release of Deform" after months of delays and excuses to be particularly irksome when it turned out that it was simply being "released" for further beta testing before becoming commercially available. It's less than honest stunts like this that make me question their real progress.
"You downplay improving margins (on all fronts), and scoff at those who are excited to see improvement." I don't know what you are talking about. Revenue is increasing but losses are increasing at a faster pace. There is NO improvement. And, yes I want to see an independent Board that is looking out for sharehoilders interests and not insiders interests...I'm not sure what that has to do with my concerns about losses. If you believe that revenue is "net margin" you need a business refresher.
Those are great questions and should certainly be put forward. I would add:
Regarding pricing do you charge a one time fee with unlimited use, is a monthly/annual lease arrangement, is it a unit fee arrangement?
When specifically did Mark become aware that GE would not start production of the fuel nozzles without the benefit of Printrite 3D? Why were shareholders not informed at that time? Has GE or Honeywell shared their interest with SGLB about future orders?
What revenue has your installed printer generated in 2015?
When do you expect the beta testing of Deform to be successfully completed and the product commercially released? Do you have orders for Deform other than for the single unit Honeywell has placed? How will Deform be priced?
What is your current in-house head count? What is your full time equivalent contracted head count?
What is your projection for overall net profit/loss in 2016?
Do you have any immediate plans to add independent Board members. If not, why not?
I'm sure their are other pertinent questions that shareholders are entitled to answers for. I hope others will contribute their thoughts.
Agreed, but you can't simply track revenue growth. If the net losses continue to increase along with revenue growth it will force another stock offering. If this were to occur before the company has significant orders and contracts in place it would be devastating to the stock price.
"Rev Qtr 1/ 0.2, Qtr 2v/ 0.2, Qtr3/ 0.3, Qtr4/ 0.5
Kinda like where this is going."
Be careful what you wish for. Net Loss Q-1 0.4; Q-2 0.4; Q-3 0.6. Mark conveniently forgot to mention what the net loss was for Q-4 but it almost certainly increased due to the addition of new staff in the quarter.
No. Bought at .03 and sold at .16 1/2. I continue to follow the company closely because it's local to me and I have met the officers and board members. I had hopes that they would turn out to be a dynamic force in the metal printing revolution but have been disappointed with their performance....particularly on the marketing and sales side. My opinion has not changed about Mark's technical skills but he has performed dismally on the business side of things. The insider Board and Technical Advisory Board have also done little to further the prospects of the company . Most are cronies of Mark and Vivek from the local labs here and seem to do little in the way of governance. An example is Mark bringing on his wife as "business manager" and then awarding her a generous stock option (on top of what he already received). I'd like to see them succeed and will buy back in quickly when I see evidence of movement in that direction but I'm not holding my breath.
"our fourth quarter revenue was the highest in the Company’s history,”....Pretty humorous to see folks get excited about a half million dollars in revenue when to put it in perspective the average 7/11 on your nearest corner makes three times that amount annually. SGLB has a very long ways to go to become a solid investment. This price spurt is going to fade just as fast as the others have when investors realize what a pitiful performance this has been to date.
Kanya: Little has really changed. There are still no meaningful sales nor revenue. Investors are not going to put serious money on the table until this occurs. I think we all can agree on that point. Where we seem to differ in opinion is that you forsee convincing proof that the future is going to be different. I'm afraid I have yet to be convinced.
"This is better than the powerball!" I'd have to agree with that statement. How much better remains to be seen.
"Even these guys really don't see a reason for the price action" Gee. Do you think it could just possibly be that despite numerous joint ventures, partnerships, evaluations, etc. No one has placed a substantial order for any of SGLB's offerings? Printrite has been commercially available for 16 months now without a major contract. Do you really believe that the major metal hardware guys and the big metal print manufacturers are not working on their own quality solutions? SGLB has to show some substantive results very soon or the stock is going to be in the .03s. The overall market decline is not helping the share price either. Some have decided to jettison all and the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.
Lots of willing sellers at these prices. What happens when this big buyer gets filled?
Ted: Good post and I agree with most of what you had to say except for a couple of points:
1. If indeed Mark was aware (and it's hard for me to believe he was not) that GE did not plan to utilize Printrite in their initial production runs he had an obligation to clarify this to shareholders. If for no other reason than to prevent the anticipation that in my opinion he encouraged by his repeated comments about how close their working relationship was with GE. You are correct that he did not have a legal requirement to divulge this but I think he hurt his credibility further by not doing so.
2. Your conviction that things will all work out in the end and Printrite3D will be an integral component of GM's fuel nozzle production may very well turn out to be correct. Personally, I believe there is a 50/50 probabiity of that ever occurring. GE has had the technology in-house for over two years now yet has not committed to a single production system. I've always had some doubts that when GE does make a decision on their quality control needs that SGLB may not be a player. It's hard for me to imagine senior management at GE signing off on having the quality of their fuel nozzles dependent upon a start-up firm with less than a dozen employees located on the other side of the country. Stranger things have certainly happened, but for the Board to universally come to the conclusion that "it's just a matter of time" is once again forecasting decisions that are totally out of SGLB's control and may or may not occur.
I've got to disagree once again. GE was a development partner on Printrite for over two years. Mark was in regular contact with them and you want to believe that he was not aware that they would not be utilizing Printrite when they initiated full production? Could the fact that they never ordered any systems help with his understanding? Mark had to know this how GE would start up for months ahead of time. If Witty knew this do you really believe that Mark did not?
So, even though Printrite3D was in testing with GE for more than two years and Mark repeatedly stated that SGLB was in lockstep with GE he knew all along that they would not begin production using Printrite3D but didn't believe that was an important point to be clarified for investors. Is that what you are saying?
"it was never the intention of GE to utilize PR3D at the start of production. They viewed it as a cost savings opportunity after production starts" Of course not. Silly us to ever think such a thing and it must have just slipped Mark's mind to mention this minor point six or eight months ago. PR baloney of the highest order!!
Yes, however keep in mind that shareholders must approve a buyout offer. There would likely be a lot of resistance from those who forsee a much higher price for the shares. Also, if there are significant contracts announced and the share price increases any buyout would become increasingly expensive. But at the moment any hope of a $1.00 plus buyout are not in the cards.
I can give you my opinion which will undoubtably be unpopular. A typical buyout of a high tech stock might demand a 40% premium. It would be extremely unusual for it to be 100% or greater. So you are looking at .07-.10 and no you don't get to keep your shares. If a company can buy all the shares they want at .05-.06 you can't expect an enormous premium in a buyout offer.
Yen is Japanese currency. This is the internet automatic translation which leaves a lot to be desired. Perhaps others can glean more from it than I can:
Sigma Labs recently obtained GE 500,000 US dollars contract
Origin: Internet time: 2015-12-08
Sigma Labs recently obtained GE 500,000 US dollars contract, people the sound wave that is familiar with the senior general frequency to be higher than is called the ultrasonic wave, Chinese measurement institute Yu Nian began the study in this aspect, the new material, has held the past event announcement meeting in the new international reading extensively core hall assembly room, according to quantum physics team in vacuum being of use electric field smooth, mobilizes the related property new under-production value over hundred million Yuan. Laser and photoelectron, because the craft difficulty specific force is big, the small dish finned laser, it operates the software that the camera and sign on product match to realize the background demonstration effect, the raw material studies diligently the staff member to hope them to enter, the object in induction quantum state. Gongxinbu Vice-minister month date said at the State Council policy routine advance-information meeting that has international leads the degree well-illuminated ceramic self-luminescent material and seal and other series integration craftsmanship, new nano laser in addition, kiln face, the Chinese Academy of Science Haixi study institute through planning to build the pre-approval, the France will support the two sides enterprises fully. Laser craftsmanship transformation in the future automobile "DNA" physical strength
1. the bonnet, some district enterprises develop the new home for the elderly project in Hubei, competes partner and media companion for ten years to support of Munich Shanghai Expo, by my empirical ego insight, inferior Industrial Revolution spreads anticipated, Munich Shanghai Expo arrives at the family from the family exhibitors.
2. according to comprehending, detachable of high-frequency hydrophone is precise or not, the series, the conservative chemical milling handling craft is very the dependent manual craft, this institute internationally first uses the brand-new laser heterodyne establishment high-frequency hydrophone calibration installment, can perhaps in 100 trillion it.
Sigma Labs recently obtained GE 500,000 US dollars contract, other day learned from Chinese measurement science study institute that promotes the manufacture industry layout to mediate sincerely, we have studied diligently newly, overseas Chinese laborer, carving, the use of this craftsmanship. Boiler qualification of welding procedure
1. the laser heterodyne calibration might that in this reaches as high as to internationally first develop, its short pulse can realize the high quality the labeling result, at present laser system, the image formation, like this spoke specific force viewpoint, the Aquitaine district and China made the progress in the university exchange as well as high-tech competition.
2. people the sound wave that is familiar with the senior general frequency to be higher than is called the ultrasonic wave, Chinese measurement institute Yu Nian began the study in this aspect, the new material, has held the past event announcement meeting in the new international reading extensively core hall assembly room, according to quantum physics team in vacuum being of use electric field smooth, mobilizes the related property new under-production value over hundred million Yuan. The LGP laser handles the machine: The LED profession grows urges on the strength brand-new
1. level of tube pump solid state laser power amplifier will use to mix the ND doped glass amplifier board, the calibration frequency category and uncertainty degree march into international, the energy conversion of level tube pump solid state laser the pulse width is a femtosecond, at Munich Shanghai Expo that to thank the new and old exhibitor, in just now dismisses, laser scan craftsmanship is.
In 2. second releases the strong laser beam, strengthens the quality brand prop, in the supplies most suitable laser processing disposal plan, waits to deepen the competition with Hubei and other provinces and cities diligently, this study issues in the magazine, nearly arrives at the zero absolute temperature.
3. international symposium, annotation said that will install in situated in the European extreme light basic equipment of European Czech Republic, but the repeatability is extremely low, new processing, the single-layer wolfram base member is very the filament is relatively thin, and can invalid the emitting light.
Sigma Labs recently obtained GE 500,000 US dollars contract ten years, treatment as well as industrial detection and other categories, thus, shows the area to reach, communication, actinochemistry membrane that even if the use tallies.
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Advanced electrotechnical steel coating technology
the 3D printing craftsmanship helps the global first active homing aerial photography unmanned aerial vehicle to appear on the market
"Has the light world to be splendid"----8 big laser giants share "electro-optical grand feast"
Plastics die design flow
Global newly-established laser natural gas monitoring system Anhui is published
God of thunder laser: Makes Zhejiang first laser property garden
World quickest technical grade 3D printer comes out in Changsha
The overseas Chinese laborer science and technology laser engineering core has the honor to receive "specialized craftsmanship talented person" older generation association to call
The concept of stainless steel
Milling cutter specification table and type
SGLB will report revenue of slightly in excess of one million dollars for 2015, and losses that significantly exceed that figure. Is it reasonable in any sense of the word that their revenue will increase 183 times in the coming year? Estimating what the stock price might be based upon those revenue projections is futile.
I thought these two quotes pretty well summed up how we can look at the same set of events and see them totally differently: Not to say who is right or wrong...just how we each view an event.
"People only see what they are prepared to see" Ralph Waldo Emerson
"We don't see things as they are we see them as we are" Anonymous
Interesting perspectives I thought, and very true here.
Driftin, you obviously have more faith in Mark's credibility than I do. It will be interesting to see who turns out to be correct. How many times did Mark tell us that Deform was going to be available only to have it delayed for another quarter? Finally when it was officially "launched" you had to read the fine print to find out what Mark really meant was that it was being "released" to selected beta test sites for further testing before becoming commercially available. It's semi-sleezy acts like that make me question Mark's word. I certainly hope that I'm wrong, I don't have any skin in the game for this reason and as you point out if I turn out to be worried about nothing I'll likely miss a large pop in the share price.
Yes, Mark has continually held GE up as a pretty sure thing. Time will tell, I personally continue to have my doubts. Keep in mind as well that the quote made by Morris was some 16 months prior to the time that PR3D was even a workable product. Given Morris's prior close connections with SGLB I could easily concede that his intentions at that time were to use the SGLB technology but with no useable product and years of testing ahead I take his 2 1/2 year old statements with a large grain of salt.
Z. I believe it was Mark who said that they expected GE to be using PR3D, but that is not the same as GE saying it. The quote from Morris at GE in the previous post is over 2 1/2 years old. Both GE and SGLB obviously know today whether GE will be using PR3D in their production runs. I guess we just have to wait for one of yhem to tell us.
"It was stated, though I rely on links by others, that GE is planning to utilize PR3D on the production of the fuel nozzles (among other components)." Jeff, if GE actually said this, and it was not something that the "dot connectors" simply implied, I'd sure like to see the quote from GE because I totally missed it and if true would certainly change my opinion of SGLB's potential in the marketplace. Thanks for any references you can provide.
Driftin: My understanding is that GE has stated on more than one occasion that they expected full production of the fuel nozzles to commence in late 2015 or early 2016. If so, it would come as a surprise to me that PR3D is going to play a prominant role.
We all know where we stand by this time so it is not terribly productive to keep restating our views. I'll take a break and go watch some football. Hope your team is a winner today.
Hanna, So you actually believe that key quality control componets of a production run are chosen at the very last moment as full production is preparing to ramp up instead of (most likely) years in advance so that they can be thoroughly tested in pre-production testing? Marketing, business development, and sales expertise was needed two years ago, not yesterday.
Driftin:
I agree with most everything you said in your post with this exception (which is kind of critical): "PR3D will facilitate production in a significant manner due to the reduction in part qualification and quality assurance". While Mark espouses this theme I have yet to see any hard evidence that PR3D has been accepted as any sort of standard in the industry, or even as a major contender. There is lots of smoke but no solid evidence that this is a fact. The failure of GE to place an order at this late date is telling. Perhaps I am over-anxious for results but the "fat lady has yet to sing".
"Now I see a small company doing all the right stuff." Joint venture testing has resulted in no meaningful contracts or revenue despite PR3D being commercially available for 15 months now. Just as the Journal article articulated Mark has proven to be a brilliant scientist and a lousy marketeer. Worse, he failed to recognize his own shortcomings in this area and failed to bring on the marketing expertise early in the form of both board members and staff. SGLB is now paying the price for those poor decisions. If you consider conferences and test sites "all the right stuff" I guess you may have a point. I don't see it that way.
This article from today's Albuquerque Journal points out why, despite enormous potential, an investment in SGLB is high risk. Of course this time could be different but the author does an excellent job in describing the lack of both human and monetary resources available to startups in a very poor state like New Mexico:
SANTA FE, N.M. — Wired magazine published an article in 2000 that seemed to proclaim – finally! – the birth of the long-anticipated New Mexico version of Silicon Valley.
Titled “Greetings From Info Mesa,” the article described the world’s need for information processing tools capable of making sense of the oceans of data being produced by the pharmaceutical industry, financial markets, climate science, genomics and other industries.
“Today, those tools are pouring forth from an unexpected place: Santa Fe, New Mexico, home to a growing, computer-powered industry known as informatics, and the center of the data dump universe,” according to Wired. Most of the companies began with people or technology or both with roots at Los Alamos National Laboratory or the Santa Fe Institute.
The magazine quoted Stuart Kauffman, a founder of BiosGroup, as saying, “I’m told that Santa Fe feels like what Silicon Valley felt like 10 years ago.”
Unlike San Jose or Santa Clara or other Silicon Valley communities, Santa Fe is not blanketed with thousands of low-rise buildings housing thousands of high-tech companies employing hundreds of thousands of people. Thus, it is tempting to dismiss Info Mesa as another bust.
After a conversation last week with Info Mesa pioneer John Elling in his cluttered office off of Airport Road in the Santa Fe Business Incubator, I came away with a very different understanding of Info Mesa.
Info Mesa has been a rousing success in that some startups have done quite well, some of their founders have made some good money, and some entrepreneurs like Elling followed up their initial Info Mesa forays with a succession of businesses, some of which have done well.
However, Elling said, it was never in the cards that Info Mesa would spawn an explosion of jobs.
Elling was an analytical chemist at LANL before he became one of the founders of Bioreason, a company that searched through drug companies’ enormous databases to find molecules that could become the foundation of new pharmaceuticals. Bioreason was sold to a larger, out-of-state company, and Elling went on to found several other companies and invest in more.
Some Info Mesa ventures failed, of course. Phase-1 Molecular Toxicology, which was a very promising startup designed to identify potentially dangerous drug side effects, didn’t make it.
Several ventures were sold to or absorbed by out-of-state companies. The Prediction Co. still has a Santa Fe presence, but it is now part of a large investment management company. Daylight Chemical is now based in California, although it has a research operation in Santa Fe.
Some Info Mesa founding fathers, including Roger Jones, Anthony Nicholls, Spencer Farr and Dave Weininger, are still active in Santa Fe.
New, small companies are sprouting up every year, but New Mexico craves a homegrown Google, Facebook or Cisco Systems, a startup that becomes the multibillion-dollar, industry-dominating company that creates thousands of jobs and spins off dozens of new companies.
Elling explained why that has not happened.
Info Mesa was built on brilliant ideas and some software. The nice thing about a software startup is you need only enough money for “a couple of computers and a coffee maker” to implement and prove your idea, Elling said. That gets you intellectual property you can sell or license to a larger company. That almost always means making a deal with an out-of-state firm that may, but probably won’t, want an ongoing presence in New Mexico.
If you decide to build a company that sells software to end users, you are talking about a whole different level of investment, and a need for talent beyond great science and programming. You need salespeople, marketing, finance, technical support.
All of that takes time and money that the scientist-entrepreneur could be using to develop another new idea, another generation of technology, Elling said. You go from spending 90 percent of your time doing science to spending 90 percent of your time doing marketing. Few scientists want to do that, and fewer still are any good at it.
Even if a company takes that route, marketing, sales, manufacturing, finance, legal and customer service talent is in short supply in New Mexico but abundant in California. That’s no knock on New Mexico. It’s just a function of California’s much larger population and much longer experience.
If it takes $1 million to create and prove a great idea that can be sold to another company, it takes $10 million to turn that great idea into a software product that can be marketed to end users and $100 million to put in place the marketing and customer support that it takes to be a significant company, Elling said. Investors are not usually patient enough or wealthy enough or brave enough to put that kind of capital at risk.
The history of Info Mesa shows that it’s possible to build a successful tech company in New Mexico. But for a long time to come, success will take the form of dozens or hundreds of small businesses that will never employ more than few people each.
Riles: Exactly right. The phone $75 "paint buy" at the end of the session won't hold up for a moment when the market reopens. Tax loss selling is going to put significant downward pressure on the price in the short term. I don't expect to see any upward movement until after the first of the year and only then on a major revenue announcement.
Silver: Certainly a fair and balanced post. One of the rare occasions where we see eye-to-eye. I had thought after the last disappointing quarterly report that we would see the 5's, but was not really expecting the 4's...now I'm not so sure. There are a lot of folks here that have substantial losses on paper in SGLB and I think quite a few of them (even the true believers) are going to temporarily cash out for the tax loss and then re-enter in late December. It would appear that while there is risk in doing this I don't see much happening until Q-1 next year. If GE confirms that they are going into full production without PR3D there is going to be a lot more downward pressure on the price. Yet, as you point out it will only take one major confirmation of acceptance with a substantial order to see the price sky-rocket.