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One of the reasons I'm not fearful of my investment here is the anemic volume.
Tweed thus far today has traded about $170,000.
That's pretty bland. An example of a similar sharecount/float would be WWE which has traded almost 2 million today. Just a few months ago it was trading similar to Tweed's volume and one day the market decided it was a hot stock and it had 11 consecutive trading days of big gains and then some. It ended up at 32.00 a share at the peak of its hype. Now it trades around 15ish, still 60% above prior to the hype. WWE was a company I invested in regularly with small buys for 7 years for a few reasons. 1. Its dividend, 2. It's a company that will never go away. 3. I like the risks management takes to help grow the company. 4. The brand name. I sold when I felt the share price was ridiculous, around 29.00. I bought back in last week with the same money I had made from selling. Why? This is one of those stocks I plan on keeping for decades. I reinvest all my dividends right back into the company.
Tesla was another one I kept for a while prior to the hype. That one I sold at 160 and am kicking myself for it. lol
I mostly deal in true long investments but I do play flipping when I see what I think is a good opportunity.
Tweed is a company I plan on keeping long term as this is truly ground floor investing. Not like social media which starts with ridiculous valuations and frankly has a horrible business model that relies on people not getting bored of your service. I'm not saying you can't make a pretty penny in them, but I don;t see them like I do Tweed, a multi-year play.
My cost avg is at about 2.94 but I left liquidity on the table specifically to buy more shares should it drop much lower. I'm more or less telling myself I'll buy more should I go -20% here. Either way I have enough shares to be pleased once the market goes crazy for green again and beyond.
The volume at our fellow Canadian LP's seems to be dropping. Without a sector catalyst the PPS will likely drop like Tweed's did.
I'm waiting to set my buys for the drop. The market cap is just too high for me to justify investing in them yet.
It won't be near the size of my Tweed holding but I'm a fan of diversifying.
I'm pretty sure Tweed employees lurk around here. Maybe one day we will get an opportunity to buy our T-Shirts. =)
I don't see in the AMA where he says or implies he would be open to a merger/buy-out ext. Can you quote it here?
Consolidation usually comes later as the market demand and competition grows but it seems that Tweed is betting on the expansion of MMJ and/or recreational to come sooner rather than later. In order to be ready for such an inevitability they will want as many facilities as they can diversify into. In the long term I suspect the Hershey Falls facility will become/remain the HQ to be used primarily for research and development. While stil having product that ships from there, they may diversify into more farms like NOTL for aggressive growth.
Q1 they hinted on buying out another facility. Not long after (3 weeks), it happened.
Q2 they hinted that the CEO change will be for aggressive growth.
I bet they already know who they want and are just waiting for the terms to be worked out. At the very least I'm sure there is a short list of people they want. Once that change occurs we will probably get some sort of acquisition announcement. Maybe they will want to diversify into picks and shovels or paraphernalia.
Tweed's branding is strong and they have been very clear they are focused on brand recognition and attractiveness. All the community outreach programs signal this. Big points to their marketing and development team.
Q2 14' Sticky - Key take aways -
Post by:Ronald Redfield
My updated notes on Tweed $TWMJF $TWDhttp://t.co/VXulj7oNmM Shares o/s 40M. Current prices $2.50 (TWD not TWMJF), market cap is < $100M.
— Ronald Redfield (@rbco) August 28, 2014
Thank you for the kind words to those who mentioned me. It's my goal to keep the board clean in order to ensure new and old investors alike have a place they can get up to date and unbiased information on Tweed. While I am a diversified investor, Tweed is my main MJ play and the current plan is to hold on tight to my shares for the foreseeable future. Fortunately I am a patient investor. As always, let me know if you guys n' gals want me to update the ihub landing page with any information I may have missed.
Q2 14' Sticky - Key take aways -
Post by:Ronald Redfield
My updated notes on Tweed $TWMJF $TWDhttp://t.co/VXulj7oNmM Shares o/s 40M. Current prices $2.50 (TWD not TWMJF), market cap is < $100M.
— Ronald Redfield (@rbco) August 28, 2014
I received permission to post the following analysis of Tweed's earnings and conference call. I thought it was great and non-bias.
Post by:Ronald Redfield
My updated notes on Tweed $TWMJF $TWDhttp://t.co/VXulj7oNmM Shares o/s 40M. Current prices $2.50 (TWD not TWMJF), market cap is < $100M.
— Ronald Redfield (@rbco) August 28, 2014
I read that the surrounding community was an issue for the other company you mentioned. I was vested in them early last year. I pulled out after the SEC started suspending, fortunately for a nice profit.
From what I gather, Tweed has the community backing them at both facilities.
There may also be other factors we are not aware of.
But it could also be the connections. But the absence of evidence keeps the speculation alive. We either take their (Tweed's) word for it, or we speculate with anecdotal or absent evidence.
I thought it was a good call. I was satisfied with reason for Chuck Rifici stepping down.
No debt, aggressive expansion all good.
I have a bit of a concern with their burn rate. It seems kinda high but I guess it will come down once they are done with their expansion plans.
I didn't like them still refusing to disclose the number of customers the have signed up. Bruce saying that other private companies disclosing numbers they know are erroneous. Well I don't understand what's that got to do with Tweed.
Yeah, I need to find the transcript to confirm. Thank you for the added info. I need to get some time tonight to work on the landing page. Overall, I'm happy.
* No dilution since June 30th, 39 million outstanding shares.
* Current liquidity is enough.
* Lower expenses in second half of year expected.
* They do not report the number of customers. They have new customers and new people on waiting list.
Alan B. on the call for questions:
Q: "How did you get the license(s) so quick"
A: We were ready, we had the facility, community support, and the liquidity. On the NOTL facility all we needed was a fence and lasers/cameras. It was much simpler than 'connections' or 'luck'.
Gives me more confidence on their effectiveness and agility.
They believe the coming election will be good for using every piece of the plants EX. Edibles.
They also believe recreational or expansion of medical MJ will happen.
RE: CEO Change
"We feel we are ready to aggressively grow"
"looking for CEO to help us aggressively grow"
"Chuck stays on as board member"
"Find new CEO by late Dec/Early Q1"
I'm on the call, I found it interesting that they are being approached by banks to invest and loan to Tweed.
Updated, thank you.
If you are interested in the CC this morning, here is the information:
Teleconference Call
Bruce Linton, the Company's Chairman and Co-Founder, and Don Gibbs, the Company's CFO, will host a conference call on August 28, 2014 at 10:00 a.m. ET to discuss the Company's financial results.
Date:
August 28th, 2014
Time:
10:00 a.m. ET
Where:
888-231-8191 (Toll free in North America)
1-647-427-7450 (International)
Ok, did some cleaning up.
Here is what I am going to do effective today until I see relative calm and order return.
It is my goal to support honest and civil conversation.
1. I will be making a sticky and updating it accordingly for interested investors to know who are the habitual bashers and pumpers.
* If you feel I added you on this list without merit, please let me know and I am happy to have a civil discussion with you regarding it.
2. Speaking about other tickets will result in the post being removed as per the TOS on the ihub board. This will be until the board clams down again, then we can go back to civil discussion.
In other notes: I will review and update the landing page with Q2 information once I have some sit down time.
Have a great trading day.
Woah, where did these investor trolls come from?
In any case, good morning fellow longs. I haven't dug into the earnings yet but I like the summary thus far.
Looks like I need to do some cleaning up as well.
Sure, I'll do so tonight when the kids go to bed.
I despise the tone of this video.
Again, putting all the blame on Fannie Mae for the financial crisis instead of passing on the facts. Though I shouldn't be surprised considering it's FOX.
I image it's because Tweed can't supply all their customers MMJ demands yet. Can you imagine the bad PR that would come out of selling to another LP before providing for their current patients?
I imagine that once supply catches up to demand you might see that kind of cross selling. It's not unheard of in any industry.
I appreciate all your efforts. You're right in that it is a small portion of my portfolio but an important one as part of my diversification. I did my DD prior to buying in and I added a bit about a month later on a dip. I might add more if it drops more.
Great find, I'd love to get some screenshots of prices so I can update the ihub landing page. I'll see what I can find. Thank you.
It's funny you say that. I got that 'gut' feeling too. Of-coarse gut feelings are as good as crystal balls lol.
Chart wise it doesn't yet look like we have broken the trend which is mostly holding in the 2.50 - 3.00 rage. Even RSI wise it's hard to find a solid support up or down. If we head into earnings with higher than average buy volume it may indicate the beginning of an upward trend, if it continues past earnings. We also need to watch for sellers who might be looking to get out breaking even as we move up.
Great analogy. Great advice.
No reason to be negative towards those investors. I don't see it as 'us' vs 'them'.
My personal view on life is more a positive one. It sucks when people lose money. It's great when people make money. I felt bad for all the people who got caught in the MJ suspension which turned out to be no fault of the companies or the retail investors themselves. It was dishonest manipulators like MoneyRunners who caused the halts. The only good thing that came of it was that these people are now caught and will pay the price for their dishonesty.
I was in one of those companies when the suspension hit but I was lucky that I invested before the hype and sold partial positions on the way up. Even after the trading resumed I made a solid 500% gain on what was left. But for the people who got caught on the ride up... I felt bad for them.
Steady heads, due diligence, and patience win at this game. Which is why I invested most (read: 70%) of my MJ play diversification in Tweed. The other 30% is liquid right now.
I'm excited as well. Not so much for PPS movement but, as I previously stated, to get a a great idea how of profit margins, operational costs, and the projections.
Steady heads win this game.
100% correct.
It makes me happy to see realistic and level headed investors. =)
IPO hype vs volume issues. Tweed's volume is just awful and the PPS easily swayed. In time the hype will calm from the newly IPO'd companies and will likely experience the same volume issue.
I also noticed plenty of pumping from those other plays from certain member only groups.
I plan on diversifying into the other plays once the hype an volume die off. The majority of my holdings will remain in Tweed though.
Good morning, I'll indulge your comments which seem to be more about subjective negativity than substance for the sake of conversation.
Funny how it is almost the END of August and $17 is nowhere in sight as some "claimed". Tweed started out at 2.53 at the beginning of the month and is now sitting at 2.44. Definitely going in the wrong direction.
NO ONE can even be a long here as the stock has not even traded for 1 year. Everyone is still SHORT.
Tweed can announce 20 grow rooms 1000 new strains, 10 new greenhouses 3 new licenses and all that does NOT matter because at the end of the day they will ONLY still be confined to growing 33000 lbs a year. Its like a major car company having 10 factories and only being able to make ONE car a year.
LOW VOLUME and being on the TSX exchange gives Tweed no advantage compared to other MMJ plays. Need new investors ALL the time to make a stock grow. Tweed does NOT get the popular in this sector. Tweed has not seen over 1 million in volume since a couple of days after inception into the TSX exchange.
Almost the perfect answer. The market cap 'Surfergrl' offered is incorrect. The market cap of the other mentioned stock is upwards 50 million, half of Tweed, and as Hammerod stated the potential growth is much higher at this time.
One should also note the cash on hand and the investment by a respected institutional bank adds to the market cap as well. Remember Surfer, stocks are forward looking more often than not.
*This reminds me that I should update the front page when we get financials with which institutions hold shares and how many*
I'm not trying to convince anyone where to put their money, ultimately no one can read the future and likely all these companies will have PPS growth in one form or another. The question remains, which will survive long term as an entity and not get gobbled up by a larger company.
Emerging market stocks always work like that.
Many IPOs, a scramble for who will dominate the sector, consolidation, then the remainder companies become the house hold name of the sector.
Usually this takes around 6-10 years. Depending on the sector and the economy of-coarse.
Likely true. It's all cyclical though. Dec 2012 was hot for the sector. Dec 2013 was also hot. Will it hold true again in 2014? We shall see, it's hard to predict if the same/similar catalysts will generate the interest again.
Higher than average volume sell off here. The volume is still quite low regardless. Probably related to the low margins reported by Bedrocan. The sector is in its infancy, still a long road ahead.
Hopefully we see stronger margins with Tweed, we should considering Tweed grows what it sells and doesn't need to import its goods.
Good morning everyone =).
I'd like to remind everyone that while I am happy and invite discussions about the sector as a whole but please be mindful that your posts do not turn into a pump your favorite stock and bash the other one.
It's an exciting day for the industry with more companies going public on the big board but posts that blatantly promote another stock will be removed.
Thank you everyone and happy trading, it's a great day for the sector!
NEWS WIRE ALERT TRANSLATED:
IIROC can make a decision to suspend (or stop) temporarily operations in respect of a security of a publicly traded company. Stops operations are implemented to ensure the proper functioning of a fair market.
IIROC is the national self-regulatory organization which oversees all investment dealers and trading activity on all markets equity and debt markets in Canada.
SOURCE Regulatory Organization of Canada Trade Securities (IIROC)
Let's see how Monday plays out. I might open a position once it settles in on a price in the coming weeks. I'm a firm believer of diversifying. The one large concern I have is the importation of their product and the strict guidelines set by Health Can.
I'll perform my DD over the weekend as I'm not in a hurry to jump in. The sector should get hot as the year ends and into 2015 beyond.
My large hope is for the U.S. fed to lower the schedule of Marijuana so these companies can start thinking of exports from Canada. I don't expect exports to start any time soon by any means, I simply want the possibility to arrive sooner rather than later.
Good luck everyone come Monday, should be an exciting day here.
I feel like the board today is not unlike the Clinton Administration in the mid 90's. Please define 'In place'. lol.
Tweed has continued to meet and in some cases exceed the expectations set forth in previous press releases. I'm starting to expect Tweed to report some nice numbers next week along with bullish forward guidance.