Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
INDU Little Wave 4 Triangle
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F27%2F2011&freq=9&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=0&y=0
This morning the INDU found support and formed what looks like a wave 4 triangle. wave 5 just happened. I don't know if more wave 4-5 combinations will unfold.
One thing is for certain: The larger multi-day wave of selling is motive.
SPX 1300 won't hold
This morning's consolidation didn't bounce high enough or spend enough time consolidating. It was another wave 1-2 combination.
It was a waterfall
The waterfall looks to be half way done. I'm looking for SPX support and consolidation at 1300 before a multi-day bounce.
NDX and INDU very telling E-waves
The NDX is in the late stages of an ending diagonal. A sudden drop could happen any time.
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=$iuxx&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
The INDU looks like it has topped and truncated. A waterfall pattern of lower lows and lower bounce highs (multiple waves 1-2).
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=$INDU&data=Z60&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
The SPX is caught somewhere between the INDU and NDX.
SPX intraday: small wave 4-5's
The morning opened lower into the end of a wave 4. Since then the index found support along the lower uptrend line, and is still moving up nicely in the channel. There are a couple degrees of waves 4-5 to unfold. Maybe a sharp end of the day rally. upside target 1360 before a larger pullback. Don't hold anything over the weekend as there is little upside left in this multiday rally, and the larger rally off the June 2011 lows.
And a 10-15 pt rally for Friday.
Over the next week I'm looking for the markets to break the April/May 2011 high. So far the NDX is in the best position to achieve this, then the INDU, SPX, TRAN, and RUT, in that order.
SPX 15 to 20 point rally tomorrow.
Today was a wave 2 flat. Since the general theme for the markets this year has been a large topping process, the wave 3 of c starting tomorrow should be shorter that the wave 1 of c started last week and completed this week. Similarly the rally started last week (wave c) should challenge the early July highs, but not be as strong as the rally starting in late June (wave a) and ending in early july.
SPX Consolidation
Today is proving to be choppy trading. Give the markets another day to consolidate before another 2-4% rally.
Today was a tradable bottom.
The overnight SPX futures continue to make gains along the same trajectory as during the day. Tomorrow should be UP.
Drop and Pop Day
The wave b triangle I'm counting is in the process of finishing. The price is near the convergence of the upper and lower edges of the triangle. So while the SPX futures are down 8 points, a 30+ point rally is very possible today into tomorrow. Wait for the upper edge to be broken to the upside before buying.
Investor Intelligence comments
The 1 year chart of precent bulls vs bears is showing decreasing bullishness with increasing OEX market highs. This is a longterm bearish divergence. Longterm top has been forming for 8 months now. THe top may be in, or on the last rally.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx
SPX Futures e-Wave Clear
http://charts.insidestocks.com/chart.asp?sym=SPU1&data=Z45&date=051406&den=HIGH&divd=Y&evnt=ADV&grid=Y&jav=ADV&size=D&sky=Y&sly=N&vol=Y&late=Y&ch1=011&arga=&argb=&argc=&ov1=&argd=&arge=&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
From July 8th to July 12 opening was a motive wave down
From July 12 to present is a correction side to up
wave a - zigag up July 12 to opening July 13
wave b - triangle sideways opening July 13 to late afternoon July 15
wave c - zigzag up predicted for July 18.
In general, the market will move higher in the overnight and pre market Sunday night into Monday morning. By Wednesday there will be a drop much lower than this week's low.
Big Move Ahead
The intraday charts for the INDU and SPX show a possible zigzag completed from Thursday last week, with the zag being an ending diagonal. Next move would be a sharp advance.
OR a multiple degrees of wave 3 are waterfalling. Big move down.
Buy calls AND puts.
Still more Correction
Despite the sharp selloff the second half of yesterday, the SPX futures are pointing higher and should try a re-test of te 50% or 60% fibonacci area.
TMV - Promising
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (ETF)
TMV looks like a long term bottom is being formed. Since its inception in April 2009, the price as been declining while volume increased. This sounds like a typical selloff. In August of 2010, however, volume continued to grow as the price rose. This sounds like a genuine rally. From February 2011 until present both the volume and price have declined. This indicates accumulation. TMV should be good long term play with price to rise above $50.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=tmv&time=10&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F13%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=60&y=14
Still Choppy bounce
On the hourly chart for the market, it looks like the SPX is tracing out wave 2 flat.
The SPX futures market shows even more chop. The price is near 50% retracement, and time is fibonacci 5:8 bounce to selloff. Still a good time to exit.
Choppy Advance Over
The futures retraced 47% of the 2 day drop, and has corrected 40% of the time of teh selloff. This confluence of fibonacci ratios makes for a good sell point.
SPX Futures Down Again, BUT..
5 waves down completed overnight, and a counter trend rally has begun. The market opens lower and then makes a choppy advance.
SPX Futures WAY DOWN
Over the past 6 months a head and shoulders topping pattern has emerged. Right shoulder is rounding over.
INDU SPX NDX - Another Drop Ahead
Today's bounce off the lows in the US equity markets looks very corrective, a bunch of zigzags and overlapping advances. Monday is setting up to be another down day.
TNX Head Fake
The yield on the 10 yr US treasury ($TNX) fell 4% today on HUGE flight to safety. The e-waves have another story brewing. The yield rally off the 24 June 2011 low was impulsive. The falling yield from the 1 July 2011 top can be counted as zigzag.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p60455983873
The larger picture for the price of the 10 year US Treasury ($UST)
shows an ending diagonal advance out of the February 2011 lows. This is a nearly completed pattern. A less bearish view is wave b triangle is completing and wave c unfolds before a rally to new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p65888293611
The flight to quality may already have arrived and unloaded.
SPX intraday support broken
The bottom channel of the rally over the last 1+ week has been broken. Look for choppy sideways to downward pattern.
Longer term I think there will be a challenge of the March 2011 highs, but not a motive e-wave.
SPX near short term top.
the intraday charts show increasing choppiness during rallies.
US 10 yr Bond Yield Surging
The yield on the US 10 yr bond rose strongly again today. The important question is "Is this the beginning of a longer term bond selloff?"
There was a bullish yield divergence with all 3 indicators the relative strength index, MACD, and Stochastics. All 3 indicators rose slowly off extremely low levels while yields continued to fall over the last 6 weeks.
The yield rallied off the lower bollinger band to the upper band in a couple of days. The bands are widening to accomdate more swings in the yield. The yield met resistance at the 50 and 200 day averages. The 200 day avg is moving UP.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p88452619814
Double Zigzag Of Thursday's lows near completion.
The drop to the next lower level of support should be 5%+.
SPX Double Zigzag off yesterday's lows complete.
The larger bounce from Last Thursday is also complete. Look out below!!!
Huh?
The best count I can come up with for the NDX, and a stretch for the SPX, is a double zigzag from last Thursday's low. NDX, INDU, SPX, and RUT are at the upper line of their downtrend channels. THis means wave 2 or 4 has completed.
And the markets are now water-falling.
waves 1-2-1-2... then THREEEEE!
NDX ready to head lower
The bounce off the morning lows in the NDX looks like a textbook motive wave. Quite possibly wave c of flat wave. I expect a pullback any moment. It's also running into the upper line of the downtrend channel.
Ending Diagonal in Gold
From the Early May 2011 bottom in gold, the price has traced out an ending diagonal that truncated at the same degree. Today the price moved sharply lower, confirming the orthodox top yesterday. Falling gold confirms the tops being in for silver and oil.
With commodities heading down, and lending drying up, the economy is going to experience some deflation very shortly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p86399026742
SPX intraday bottom 1258-1260 target
Then a nice 10-15 point rally and choppy trading into early afternoon before even more carnage to the downside begins.
SPX intraday bottom 1258-1260 target
Then a nice 10-15 point rally and choppy trading into early afternoon before even more carnage to the downside begins.
Intraday bearish wedge forming.
Next move should be down, but by how much?
And the rally is about to fizzle.
The SPX bounce is just below the 50% retracement area. Whether wave 3 of a larger rally or wave zag of a zigzag, a motive wave starting Monday June 21 is nearly complete. Sideways to lower movements expected the rest of today into tomorrow.
Short Term Bottom is in
The SPX rally off Thursday June 16 bottom has completely retraced the selloff From Tuesday June 14 high. There has been very choppy trading the last week indicating the selloff from early June was finding support on the 200 day ave. The index is just below the 20 day ave. The 50 day ave would been an upside target / resistance. At this point the 20, 50, and 200 day averages are pointing DOWN. so play cautiously to the upside.
SPX 3-4 day cycle
The 3-4 day cycle is getting textbook. If today's opening pop doesn't break the 1284 level or Tuesday's high, then look out below.
Gap down tomorrow.
The SPX traded in a range (1362 to 1368) for about half the day. That sideways choppiness could be counted as a small wave 2 flat. Small wave 3 probably started into today's close.
SPX E-Wave Update.
I think the top is in for US markets. Through May I was looking for a correction. I think the correction ended around May 23. I then was looking for a final rally to test the April/May highs. I think that rally in the last week of May truncated significantly, and disproportionately short in time. I'm counting May 2011 as the end of the bear market rally which started in March 2009.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76107772188
Over the past 2-3 weeks the markets have moved to the downside very rapidly, which is characteristic of a truncated move.
The last week, and ending Tuesday June 14 looked corrective, probably wave 2 flat. This morning erased wave c of the flat, starting wave 3. If wave 1 fell 6%, then wave 3 should fall at least 10%.
The wave count for the FTSE CAC and DAX ar too difficult for me to count at this time.
This ABX index is tanking.
There is no bounce like equity markets are having.
http://www.markit.com/en/products/data/indices/structured-finance-indices/abx/abx-prices.page?
The markets are looking VERY weak.
Now would be a good time for a snapback rally with stochastics oversold and INDU showing intraday overlaps (weakening downside pressure) while rest of markets look motive.