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Short Turtle 3M units @ 104.683 T/P @ 104.083
I stayed on the sidelines today, to give you sometime to catchup to Jester...
....it's my nature to be a pain in your ass.
I had to wait for the market to come around so I could entry my trade... Your last statement should read "now at least I got some1 pull'n me"
Did d'cAt run out of lives?
Banked Turtle Long for another $2K...on the sidelines with cash.
Covered short for $2K profit...Long the turtle.
Banked $9K - going for a 60 pip short
Hold'n out for the 200 pip turtle run...
I have open long position on d'turtle 2.5M units @ 103.543 with TP @ 105.496.
Touching and playing with the frosting is out of the question, being farsighted and 27 years of marriage, I am ONLY allowed to see the cake....
Let them eat cake...
2 kidneys or 2 houses?
You can always sell a kidney for $50K dollars....
I agree, here's the link to your first point on Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC).
LOOK OUT!! Home Equity Line Suspensions Go Countrywide…City by City!
Posted on May 6th, 2008 in Mr Mortgage's Personal Opinions/Research
If you have a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) with unused credit, you may not have access to that credit for long. A few months back Countrywide led the pack by suspending 122,000 borrowers from tapping their lines and now they have suspended ALL lines in the city of Las Vegas, Nevada. Other ‘bubble’ cities are being targeted across the nation.
Since January, Countrywide, WAMU, BofA, IndyMacBank and Wells have frozen hundred’s of thousands of HELOC’s preventing home owners access to money they thought was available. Many use these lines for home improvement, business, college tuition etc and now, have been left out in the lurch.
Home equity lines to 100% of the home’s value with little verification of income or employment were common until mid 2007. Nearly every large bank in the nation made these loans hand over fist. They were hell-bent on making it as easy as possible for you to spend every penny of equity in your home.
Now that values are down sharply across the nation and we are learning very quickly that the ‘negative equity’ (owing more than your home is worth) is the leading cause of mortgage default, lenders are in a panic. First, most have stopped making HELOC’s over 80% loan-to-value and to get one, you must be a near-perfect borrower.
For the banks, these loans present a major problem because they make up such a large percentage of the balance sheet at banks such as Wells Fargo, BofA, Chase, National City, Countrywide and IndyMac. In foreclosure, the second mortgage lender rarely gets a penny because homes sell at such reduced prices and the first mortgage holder gets it all. Because of this, many second mortgage lenders are not even foreclosing, rather using more traditional means of collecting. As a matter of fact, Home Equity Loans are being modified by large banks right now for those borrowers in distress. I am hearing of significant principal balance reductions.
Rest of the Story - http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/06/look-out-home-equity-line-suspension-goes-countrywidecity-by-city/#more-77
I'm not sure but so far my brother has been getting MARGIN CALLS on his ATM houses and was forced to give five of the ten back to the bank....when he's down to two then the recession will be over.
Home values decreasing is causing a real deflationary risk to the overall US debtor economy....
You may want to review the effects of deflation
In economic theory deflation is a general reduction in the level of prices, or of the prices of an entire kind of asset or commodity. Deflation should not be confused with temporarily falling prices; instead, it is a sustained fall in general prices. In the IS-LM model this is caused by a shift in the supply and demand curve for goods and interest, particularly a fall in the aggregate level of demand. That is, there is a fall in how much the whole economy is willing to buy, and the going price for goods. Because the price of goods is falling, consumers have an incentive to delay purchases and consumption until prices fall further, which in turn reduces overall economic activity - contributing to the deflationary spiral.
Since this idles capacity, investment also falls, leading to further reductions in aggregate demand. This is the deflationary spiral. The solution to falling aggregate demand is stimulus either from the central bank, by expanding the money supply, or by the fiscal authority to increase demand, and borrow at interest rates which are below those available to private entities.
In more recent economic thinking, deflation is related to risk, where the risk adjusted return of assets drops to negative, investors and buyers will hoard currency rather than invest it, even in the most solid of securities. This can produce the theoretical condition, much debated as to its practical possibility, of a liquidity trap. A central bank cannot, normally, charge negative interest for money, and even charging zero interest often produces less stimulative effect than slightly higher rates of interest. In a closed economy, this is because charging zero interest also means having zero return on government securities, or even negative return on short maturities. In an open economy it creates a carry trade and devalues the currency producing higher prices for imports without necessarily stimulating exports to a like degree. The experience of Japan during its 1988-2004 depression is thought to illustrate both of these problems.
In monetarist theory deflation is related to a sustained reduction in the velocity of money or number of transactions. This is attributed to a dramatic contraction of the money supply, perhaps in response to a falling exchange rate, or to adhere to a gold standard or other external monetary base requirement.
Deflation is generally regarded negatively, as it is a tax on borrowers and on holders of illiquid assets, which accrues to the benefit of savers and of holders of liquid assets and currency. In this sense it is the opposite of inflation (or in the extreme, hyperinflation), which is a tax on currency holders and lenders (savers) in favor of borrowers and short term consumption. In modern economies, deflation is caused by a collapse in demand (usually brought on by high interest rates), and is associated with recession and (more rarely) long term economic depressions.
In modern economies, as loan terms have grown in length and financing is integral to building and general business, the penalties associated with deflation have grown larger. Since deflation discourages investment and spending, because there is no reason to risk on future profits when the expectation of profits may be negative and the expectation of future prices is lower, it generally leads to, or is associated with a collapse in aggregate demand. Without the "hidden risk of inflation", it may become more prudent just to hold onto money, and not to spend or invest it.
Deflation is, however, the natural condition of hard currency economies when the rate of increase in the supply of money is not maintained at a rate commensurate to positive population (and general economic) growth. When this happens, the available amount of hard currency per person falls, in effect making money scarcer; and consequently, the purchasing power of each unit of currency increases. The late 19th century provides an example of sustained deflation combined with economic development under these conditions.
Deflation also occurs when improvements in production efficiency lower the overall price of goods. Improvements in production efficiency generally happen because economic producers of goods and services are motivated by a promise of increased profit margins, resulting from the production improvements that they make. But despite their profit motive, competition in the marketplace often prompts those producers to apply at least some portion of these cost savings into reducing the asking price for their goods. When this happens, consumers pay less for those goods; and consequently deflation has occurred, since purchasing power has increased.
While an increase in the purchasing power of one's money sounds beneficial, it can actually cause hardship when the majority of one's net worth is held in illiquid assets such as homes, land, and other forms of private property. It also amplifies the sting of debt, since-- after some period of significant deflation-- the payments one is making in the service of a debt represent a larger amount of purchasing power than they did when the debt was first incurred. Consequently, deflation can be thought of as a phantom amplification of a loan's interest rate. (But, conversely, inflation may be thought of as a regressive, across the board general tax.)
This lesson about protracted deflationary cycles and their attendant hardships has been felt several times in modern history. During the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution brought about a huge increase in production efficiency, that happened to coincide with a relatively flat money-supply. These two deflationary catalysts led, simultaneously, not only to tremendous capital development, but also to tremendous deprivation for millions of people who were ill-equipped to deal with the dark side of deflation. Business owners-- on average, better educated in economic theory than their unfortunate cohorts (or just better able to withstand the economic stresses) -- recognized the deflation cycle as it unfolded, and positioned themselves to leverage its beneficial aspects.
Hard money advocates argue that if there were no "rigidities" in an economy, then deflation should be a welcome effect, as the lowering of prices would allow more of the economy's effort to be moved to other areas of activity, thus increasing the total output of the economy. However, while there have been periods of 'beneficial' deflation (especially in industry segments, such as computers), more often it has led to the more severe form with negative impact to large segments of the populace and economy.
Since deflationary periods favor those who hold currency over those who do not, they are often matched with periods of rising populist sentiment, as in the late 19th century, when populists in the United States wanted to move off hard money standards and back to a money standard based on the more inflationary (because more abundantly available) metal silver.
Most economists agree that the effects of modest long-term inflation are less damaging than deflation (which, even at best, is very hard to control). Deflation raises real wages which are both difficult and costly for management to lower. This frequently leads to layoffs and makes employers reluctant to hire new workers, increasing unemployment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation_(economics)
Using this tool, you can compare 3 month yields with 2 year, 5 year, 7 year, 10, 20, and 30 year treasury yields and see not only what effect the Federal Reserve has had on interest rates (yields), but also what the response in the stock market was during periods of flat, inverted, or normal yield curves.
Rest of the story http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/inverted-yield-curve-observations/
Dynamic Yield Curve http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
Time to feed the ducks...only 12 more Ihub posts for the day.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/bank-of-england-fears-financial.html
A few snips from Sitka Pacific...
"With all that has been going on the in the markets with the continued housing decline and the
credit market problems, the Fed has over the past two months made their intentions quite clear. As
they fully aware, this is a very risky time for the US economy – and not just because average
housing prices are down close to 10% year-over-year. They understand that our current
circumstances are similar to past instances in economic history where a major economy faced
significant deflationary risks."
"Fortunately, we have a very good road map for how the Fed, led by Ben Bernanke, intends to
combat these deflationary risks. Whether or not they are successful in their efforts will largely
determine the investment landscape over the next few years."
Rest of the Story - http://www.sitkapacific.com/files/Sitka_Pacific_Capital_Management_March_2008_Letter.pdf
I agree you should wait a few years for your self confidence level to increase....
I agree the last thing that CNBC want's to occur is to allow a few FX currency players to win the million dollar contest.
Goodluck
The new twist, however, is that each contestant will receive $1,000,000 and out of that total, $100,000 is available for currency trading.
In addition to the overall grand prize of half a million and a runner up cash award of half that sum, there are some pretty cool weekly prizes that include; World Series Tickets, a Jamaica and Turks and Caicos getaway, an Annika Sorenstam Golf Outing, a weekend in a Bentley, a seat at the World Series of Poker, and last but certainly not least, Super Bowl tickets.
http://contests.cnbc.com/milliondollar/main.do
I signed up for the CNBC $1 million dollar stock and currency trading contest
Does the May FX-contest start today or midweek?
tia
By searching Bush and Tombstone on Google...it's kind of funny what ones finds on the Internet.
I thought it was a "your brain on drugs" commercial...
Getting time to start the next FX-contest....
Tombstone Generator
http://www.jjchandler.com/tombstone/
All hail d'site security manager
It's going into my son's College expense fund this year...
The $1200 dollar pays for 1/3 of the College expenses this year, which gives me $3000 dollars of federal child deduction tax credit for going to College, and a $1000 reduction in payable federal taxes, which gives me a Hope credit of $1,650 for qualified education expenses paid, and leaves about $3,850 dollars of tax credits which will pay for the other 2/3 of College expenses this year....
One FREE year of College for only $1200 dollars....
Party on, the IRS rebate checks are in the US mail...
Long nails and black panties.
I've increased my $$$-key allocation for my trading account.
Good-luck on your test for your CTA license.
Question - If the President first lady becomes the President, will the President become the first lady?
You got 16 now - I voted three times.
Six traders, three cats, two dog, and four birds...hopefully this should account for everyone.
It's an election year and so the worst case would be 6 traders, voting twice (once @ home and the other @ work)... gotta love that 2:1 voting leverage.
Only 12 traders, I voted twice (once @ home and the other @ work)...
Plunge Protection Team
http://www.rense.com/general52/secretsoftheplunge.htm
Wait'n for the FX-Glance profit check to clear...
He may have to get a bigger truck this year...gonna be a lot more wall streeters hanging out at Home Depot looking for jobs....
Job Market 2009
I've been hiding since I'm down $372K on my $40K investment with Burke Capital...JP Morgan and the Fed may have to take control of the FX management.
Looks like a FX-hound dog dollar payday next Monday from Glance Management...