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Gleno, it could signal more up, but I have noticed in the past when the BB's expand that it is due to volatility. However, if the candle/bar touches the top BB or is out of the BB then a reversal is at hand and vice versa with touching or being out of the bottom BB.
I think they want to close the old January gap this week and then lights out for the next 2 weeks.
Gleno, yeah... I think after OE oil is going to really drop. They've taken USO down from 102.10 HoD to 97.96.
FE, thanks for the heads up. I was just merely looking at it. Since we have been trending up for the last 2-3 months, his system is relatively new. So unless I see how it reacts to a down market, and the draw downs I wouldn't even start to subscribe. Do you have any other systems on C2 that you look at or are subscribed to? TIA. I don't trade forex/futs/options only stocks and typically trade 2x etf proshares.
Ken, fwiw, here's a new system that I started looking at. It's relatively new (since Jan 08) so I don't know how will it will do on dips. (I not a subscriber to Vedaee.) BTW - I agree MVP is great and it works for me since I'm mostly an Interim Term trader.
System Details: Vedaee-NDO (QQQQ QLD QID and other ETFs)
Hypothetical Monthly Results (limitations of these statistics ?)
2008
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
+6.3% +9.0% +3.5% +16.3% +9.9%
http://www.vedaee.com/
Yup... Like the last time we had shooting stars on 5/2, a drop for 4-5 days. Missed all the action today. Still in cash earning like 2%/year or something like that, may be even less. I had too many meetings today. When I left this AM, 9:30AM PST, NDX was up 33 points, when I came back around 1:20 PM PST, market closed and the NDX was down 3.31.
EDIT makes you wonder, what about the 401K deposits on the 15th/16th of the month? Distribution the next 2 days and then down?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=28998956
Leftyg, you are right. Haven't been watching for the past couple hours, since work is getting in the way. Anyhow, I thought we'd go down on the triple top earlier this morning. But, the breakout of the triple top is indeed bullish. Tomorrow will be interesting if there is a dip I'll most likely buy some QLDs.
OT - Gleno, I think the problem is a lot worse then Iran wants to let on. There has been talks about Iran running out of oil as soon as 2015 and may be that is why they are thinking of limiting supplies so they can limp on a little longer. I remember reading an article about it a year ago. This is an older article that I found. Edit - Without oil we know what will happen to Iran, they will be pretty much nothing... That is why they are probably trying to build nuclear plants and arms while they have oil revenues. If they don't Iran won't even be a small player in the world, they will be back to the mud huts, dirt roads, etc.
Iran Oil Revenue Quickly Drying Up, Analysis Says
Associated Press
Tuesday, December 26, 2006; Page A09
"Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published yesterday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences... Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years, exports could be halved, and they could disappear by 2015, Stern predicted."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/25/AR2006122500486.html
OT - Gleno, it depends what time you go. What sucks about I-5 is you go from 4 lanes northbound and 4 lanes southbound to 2 lanes north and 2 lanes south as you approach the city and people from the ramp on either sides of the 2 lanes are trying to get all the way to the other side to get on a ramp. It's just a cluster-f... and poor road planning. It's like that for about 5 miles as you wind through downtown Seattle. If you get close to Seattle around 10:30/11ish usually traffic is a lot better and actually moves.
If you go around 405 during rush hour around renton it can be pretty bad too. A lot of people live that way cause they can't afford housing around Seattle or in Kirkland/Bellevue due to the IT folks working at Amazon, Microsoft, Clearwire and T-Mobile. Then going back over to I-5 over the floating 520 bridge is pretty bad too as everyone is trying to get over to downtown Seattle or Redmond/Bellevue from Seattle.
In general it's bad around Seattle during rush hour but that can be said of any city. If I were you I would leave Portland later so you don't have to deal with the traffic crossing over to WA, and then by the time you get to Seattle it'll be 12 and traffic won't be bad at all.
OT - Gleno... I just read this article that as gas keeps spiking more and more people are using public transit which I suppose is a good thing? May be as the Mass transit's coffers increase they can build even better infrastructure. When I first moved to the Seattle area last year, I stayed with my sister for 3 weeks until I found a place. I was 50 miles outside of the city. Driving to downtown seattle and back home sucked. It took 2 1/2 hours in traffic each way. Anyhow, I took the bus and they had an express that went on HOV2/3 lanes and it took 1/2 the time and I was able to slept or read books. It only cost $3 one way while my parking ($10/day) and gas cost way more when I drove. (EDIT - I personally hate driving, but I'm not rich enough to get a chaufer so for me I don't mind the bus or my wife driving. LOL)
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/business/10transit.html?hp
Oh... Well FWIW... Oil just spiked to new highs 126.71. Could be even higher with the 30min delay. I guess people are gunning for $130 before the end of OE, and may be even higher as the summer season/Memorial Weekend starts?
2xer, that's an interesting take. I've been pretty much sitting around waiting in cash... If we happen to do the same thing as the April OE, down wednesday, and gap up thursday and slightly up friday. The NDX may close that gap down on January 4, 2008.
Thanks... Yeah I guess if I decide to short, short the weakest index which is SP500. I can't wait for the 3x etf, but money management is going to be key. People will need to think about taking smaller positions compared to 2x or 1x etfs unless their hearts can take the volatility. Right now (for the past few days) I am sort of sitting on my hands waiting...
Gleno, do you get real-time quotes on oil? If so where? I use INO but it looks like it is 30min delayed.
Foot looks like a triple top bearish reversal pattern on the 60min QQQQ.
OT - RE, Foot, I am just curious about the bank owned homes.
So the Banks say they want to sell a property let's say 3 br/2ba for $190K to get it off their books. What are you seeing on average in terms of buyers asking price? Are they low-balling and saying $160-170K from the REO? In terms of percentage are the sales closing at 10-15% less Bank asking price?
What are the current buyer's thoughts? ie- We think the banks are desperate so let's low ball or give 10% less asking? or we think there is a bottom and there are multiple bids so let's bid higher than the bank's asking price to ensure we get the house.
TIA.
OT - Thanks, CJ. I was eyeing a few of your posts. It's bothersome to me, because my wife and I both want to buy a house and start a family. (We've been married for 2 1/2 years and I'm turning 33 soon.) Anyhow, I know now is not a good time to buy, but I'm pretty sick of renting for the past year. (Moved from Wash D.C. owned a home for 3 1/2 years and now am renting.) Finally in Seattle houses are starting to drop. But not by much. YOY changeis only -3.5%. Houses peaked in July 2007, and currently houses in Seattle are only down 7% from that peak.
From what I can gather, in the past rents typically = mortgages and when the two become out of whack one must correct and the other must go up. Right now it is so cheap to rent vs to buy. So rents probably will increase while houses decrease in value.
http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/
Seattle's ratio is 1.55. Meaning it is 55% more expensive to buy than to rent. I can rent a 3br/2ba for about $1500-1700, but yet to buy you're talking about $2500-3000 with PITI, and these are houses in the same neighborhood within blocks of each other and with similar sq ft, etc.
What is scary to jump in is all the people with negative equity in their homes. I guess this is not a Seattle only phenomenon.
There are a couple more interesting charts on Zillow...
http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyThumbs.htm?msa=Seattle+Tacoma+Bellevue+WA
Foot 3x ETFs coming soon... (Woohoo!)
By Matthew Hougan
NEW FILINGS
Direxion Looks To Be A Triple Threat
Direxion Funds is looking to enter the ETF industry with a boom. The firm has filed with the SEC to create 36 new leveraged and inverse ETFs. Sounds like ProShares, right? Well, kind of, except the 18 “Bull” funds will attempt to capture THREE times the daily return of their underlying indexes, while the 18 “Bear” funds will attempt to capture THREE times the inverse of the daily return of their underlying indexes. By contrast, the popular ProShares ETFs aim to deliver just 2X the performance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/080505/75593_id.html?.v=1
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=29180117
OT - Foot, RE... What do you think about this chart?
It's too early to tell, but Bernake may have staved off the current subprime crisis. But, do you think with the option adjustable rates and Alt-a reseting in 2010-2011 there is going to be another shoe/hammer dropping? (Meaning RE prices will be even lower after 2011 and bottoming out in 2012-2013?)
I'm going to wait til 15:30 as well to make a decision. Considering a QLD long position with a tight stop.
EDIT opps... TRINQ is suppose to be for the Nasdaq. TRINQ doesn't look like a bottom at the moment.
BTW take a look at the trin.
2xer are you planning to buy the close? I am still debating and have been on the sidelines trying to figure out the direction.
Double bottom at the 200EMA? Or are we gonna break down?
EDIT - Actually now looking at it again, if this is a measured move, we could get down to 78.17, the 50EMA before a good bounce up. I guess I will see what happens at the 200EMA. A break of that I'll look to buy with a tight stop at ~78ish.
Candle looks like an inverted hammer in a downtrend which normally sites a trend change.
"If you examine the inverted hammer carefully, it hardly looks like a bullish candle. Prices opened low and then rallied strongly. By the close of trading, however, the stock has given back almost all of the day's gains. That leaves a small real body and a very large upper shadow. If anything, the candle looks bearish. The bulls could not sustain a rally, so the bears took the stock back toward its lows for the day.
So, why should this candle potentially set up an important reversal? My theory is that the inverted hammer is a signal that shorts are beginning to cover their positions.
Here is my reasoning. Since the inverted hammer can only occur after a sustained downtrend, the stock is in all probability already oversold. Therefore, the inverted hammer may signify that shorts are beginning to cover. In addition, traders who have held long positions in the security, most of whom are now showing large losses, are often quick to dump their shares by selling into strength. This will also serve to drive the stock back down."
Yeah the way things have been, down in the morning and up in the afternoon. Except for Wednesday.
AIG - Woah... Missed big:
"AIG reports $7.8 billion loss
The company says it plans to raise $12.5 billion to strengthen its balance sheet. The company lost $3.09 per share... Analysts had expected a loss of 76 cents per share."
Doesn't Berkshire own a stake in AIG?
Gleno, have a good time. I hope it's warm and sunny for you.
2xer, I'm out today on ALVR and CRNT with topday's pop. (Edit - and in the last week has been a decent run.) Normally I wouldn't buy a stock like the two due to technical reasons, but it was more on speculation on what has been transpiring in tech for the past couple of years, and even more so in the last 2 months with Verizon and ATT, now sprint/nextel and clearwire. Wimax will be the next generation whether other carriers want to believe it or not. It's faster and cheaper to implement, ericsson spent a whole bunch of money in 3g and is very anti-wimax. But one day (possibly next year) wimax will be on everyone's laptops instead of the typical 802.11b/g wireless. So I will keep an eye on those two stocks as they are both the two best in the space that I know of.
Verizon Wireless bid $9.6 billion to grab a large block of valuable spectrum, bolstering its nationwide network and positioning it to roll out next-generation, high-speed wireless infrastructure known as LTE. AT&T bid $6.6 billion to grab spectrum that will supplement the 700-MHz spectrum it purchased before the auction from Aloha Partners for $2.5 billion.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/mobility/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=206905000
2xer good summary. That correlates with my understanding as well. The money is there and has to go somewhere, but we're not sure where which is the problem.
Yeah you're right. Brinker must be a retard or as they say never trust anything you read unless you can fully verify it.
Since the bored/board is dead... hopefully I'm not going to much OT.
I don't follow brinker and I have not verified the election year data but I have hear other writers state the same thing.
Edited - Speculation. So... Does that mean we rally after Memorial Weekend through Elections? Hmm...
So FWIW:
Brinker's May Letter
May newsletter is out.
He documents how since WWII, there have been no bear markets during a presidential election year. Only 3 major corrections in 60 years, with 2008 being the latest one.
1960 14% decline
1980 16% decline
2008 18% decline
22 year record of the proprietary market sentiment indicator saw blowout readings across the board this past March. World record put/call ratios, record 4-week moving average Investor Intelligence sentiment readings, etc.
Expecting new, fresh, world record highs in the S & P 500 by 2009, and with year over year core rate of 2.1% and the bond market acting well, there is no threat of inflation.
Anyone check the money pump the last couple of days?
Wow...
OT - I didn't work for Alvarion, but I worked with some of their products in the past. (Network Engineer/Architect) Point-to-Point wireless backhaul in a major city in order to insure redundant connections just in case there was a fiber optics cut between major data centers. Which by the way was often 1-2x per month since Internet Service providers such as comcast and/or verizon constantly tore up the streets to install more cable and/or fiber. They are suppose to obtain and use a conduit map by the city to make sure they don't hit gas lines or cut into fiber lines. But that didn't always happen.
I currently work with a company dealing with network integration and teaching/training other companies on new things. So most of my time is spent reading, writing and researching new things and one of it being Wimax.
But, a month ago somehow some people at Clearwire R&D found out about me any solicited an email asking for an interview to possibly work in their R&D/Wimax, etc so part of it was luck but the other part was just being in the IT industry for 11 years and seeing what is transpiring. I told them at this point I'm not looking but to keep my name on file. BTW, I don't feel so lucky getting into DCR yesterday. It really looks like they want to push Crude up to $130. I may bail later today for a small loss.
Gleno, Inventories were positive.
According to the Department of Energy, crude stockpiles for the week ended May 3 rose by 5.7 million barrels. The consensus forecast called for an inventory increase of 1.6 million barrels.
Yet, Crude is still moving on up despite the dollar firming today, up .85%. I shouldn't have gotten into DCR (2x inverse crude) yesterday and picked DZZ (2x inverse gold instead). It looks like they really want to take Crude up to $130.
edit- Slimjim, which as scamman always says, it breaks in favor of the trend which is up.
2xer, companies that work on wimax is going bonkers today due to the sprint/clearwire deal.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080507/sprint_nextel_clearwire.html
CRNT and ALVR are two I bought into a week ago. I've personally worked with Alvarion Breezenets they were pretty cutting edge for their time. (Haven't touched one in 2 year now.)
Lefty I have issues picking out tops then bottoms. I don't know if it's my personality or what but I tend to be more bullish then bearish. But through the years I've noticed that when I'm not sure what to do next (ie-conflicted), that means a CIT (change in trend) is about to happen. Right now I'm not sure so I cashed out of the longs last week.
2xer, I agree the chart doesn't look good. Cisco is below the 200dma and it's also broken under the current uptrend line.
This is all just speculation, but, even if Cisco did guide lower, the market has been rebounding off bad news.
Look at all the bad press this morning and Oil at $122.73 for the HoD and the markets just shrugged it off and rebounded.
Wachovia's restated loss jumps
Charlotte-based bank says it lost $708M in last quarter - up from $393M - after studying its life insurance portfolio.
Fannie Mae Loses $2.2B in First Quarter- AP
UBS Axes 5,500 Jobs, Sells Ailing Assets- AP
I think the sentiment is no recession and things will be rosy with the rebate checks coming, new president, change coming, etc, and Q3 and Q4 should see benefits. All bad news has been priced in type of deal. I personally think a slight correction is needed on this latest ramp and that is why I am in Cash and sold out last week starting with FOMC before the announcement til end of day Friday.
I tend to hold a lot longer then most on this board, and I may have missed the train but I am waiting for the reversion to the mean, the greenline backtest to enter a position.
2xer there has been some talks that Cisco products must be selling well. The reason behind that is because Broadcom is one of their biggest customers and Cisco has been buying lots of chips from them lately causing Broadcom to guide higher for Q2.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D907SSUGH.htm
BTW - I work in the Tech industry, a lot of telcoms are starting to embrace Wimax as well.
EDIT - should be interesting, I am personally flat ahead of earnings/OE week, and trying to gauge if this new upleg has any legs.
Foot for your $CPC chart does it have to tag the bottom blue line at ~.88 for a top or does it have to tag the bottom Bollinger Band at .98?
No to the first question. Last trading day is June 25, and yes to the 2nd question, if Crude is above $120 then no distribution of shares when they terminate DCR. Distribution day is July 3.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/oils-surge-taps-out-two/story.aspx?guid=%7BBBA804B8%2D513B%2D4A1C%2D875D%2DD424DCB1ED4C%7D&siteid=yhoof
Heh... Foot, I'm no guru. So I gave a disclaimer. DoubleTop or we do a measured move up to 130. Ouch for everyone... Looks like 130 is in the cards now.
A(99.55)+B(119.93) = C (110.30) + D (?130.68?)
EDIT - Futures 121.83
Foot, Oil Futures, Double top or ready to run with a measure move to 130? That would suck for us all, meaning $4 gas at least.
DCR (2x inverse NYMEX light sweet crude) down a bit, thinking of going long tomorrow with a tight stop.
Dollar to 74?
Foot, Danger Area