I am a psuedo-positive long!
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I'll repeat myself, this is not about earnings or settling lawsuits. These two events mean nothing if the Govt dissolves FNMA and keeps everything. This run is about the perception that FnF will be released from c-ship.
Let the govt bog itself down with all their nonsense....that just gives us time to repay the debt.
The rising PPS is a direct correlation of the odds that FnF will survive. As the PPS increases, the odds that FnF will survive also increase!
GLTA
Chenzo
Ended the week up 9% over last Friday's close. Rebounded nicely from Wednesday's bear raid. Consolidated very nicely this week. I am very happy with the slow climb. Chart is looking very good!
Have a great weekend all,
Chenzo
For the sake of all the longs here, I hope I am wrong also. As I posted earlier, I sold today at $2.38 and got lucky to miss this price drop. Didn't get back in today. Playing it cautiously.
Will wait and see if they run the price back down to $2.00, its a pretty good bet they will IMO. If $2.00 doesn't hold, then its $1.80. We are still in an uptrend, but I do not believe this is the "next big run". Actually, this pullback and consolidation are healthy for the long term.
I still believe all the positive things that will make the PPS soar are still intact.
GLTY
Chenzo
I just checked my post, I do not see your handle being mentioned in my post. Actually it wasn't even your post that I was replying to.
Congrats on your profits and good luck with your investing
Chenzo
The positive Sierra World article this morning was my first indicator. From there the PPS failed to go positive in the AM. I am a very cautious investor, sold at $2.38, took a small profit.
I have to admit, I did not see such a selloff coming, but that's why you take profits. Got alittle lucky today.
The action after the selloff was impressive though. We had a strong comeback with roughly 30 straight minutes of buying. I was surprised to see it close over $2.19. That tells me it was not a negative news leak. In that case, people get on the phones and ask around to see whats going on, then more waves of selling come as more people learn the news.
My conclusion is that it was a bear raid constructed around the Fed news. We even had a Sierra pump piece this morning which Im sure lured more buyers in this AM.
I am out for now. Will be buying if they continue the raid in the AM. Lots of people checked their position after work and may set stop loss orders. I still believe all the positives still remain intact.
GLTA
Chenzo
There are so many newbies here with this stock. Anyone with any experience can tell that by the questions asked and the language used in their posts (LOLZZZ).
The people here who are in control will take every last dime you have. Sorry, this is real, this is a business, a big business. People, stop taking advice from people on message boards.
GLTA
Chenzo
I'll be looking to get back in at $1.82 on Friday
GLTA
Chenzo
Here we go!!!
Thats because volume has really dried up. We're waiting for something. In my 20+ years of trading, this type of dead period is the beginning of something. I'm expecting a violent move one way or the other
GLTA
Chenzo
Its as if they have tried to shake loose any weak hands (twice this morning), have their shares and are now waiting for the buying to begin.
GLTA
Chenzo
Hang on people....gonna be a wild day
GLTA
Chenzo
Really?!?
Wonder how many stop loss orders that just triggered! They just stole a ton of shares!
GLTA
Chenzo
Congrats on your profits
GLTY
Chenzo
FMCC was about 2% better then FNMA all day. I'm guessing it was because it got a larger sum in the JPM settlement
GLTY
Chenzo
MM just laying on the Ask....400K+ now
The next time we knock on the $2.40 door, we go through it.
Chipping away at more than 530K shares at the ask....We got something stirring here.
GLTA
Chenzo
Buyers are back! Very Impressive EOM
Chenzo
Its actually flagging downwards, making lower highs
Be careful
GLTA
Chenzo
PPS really trying hard to hang in there....be careful here
EDIT: Big wall at $2.36
GLTA
Chenzo
This is a very fair question to ask, let me take a stab at it....
crawford2012 what i believe you are trying to say, is that you believe that FNMA will not go straight up. If this is the case, I agree with you. The powers to be will jerk this all over the place. Just look at last Thursday, from $2.68-$1.86 in 90 minutes. ON NOTHING!
Caution needs to used with a speculative stock like this. I understand your warning. Unfortunately, unless you are on the losing ends of one of these speculative stocks, you will never learn. I have been there.
Here's the problem....
Alot of people here are under restrictions from their broker. If they sell, they cannot get back in that day because of day trading regulations, and for others, they will not be able to get in for three days. Even if you sold high on Thursday, you will miss the possible run up Monday-Tuesday. Now you are buying on Wednesday at the top, and are stuck "hostage" when it turns around.
So it is hard for them to "play the game" of flipping and accumulating. I have no restrictions, so i can get out anytime I see danger. I am not always right, but I can always get back in quickly if i feel it necessary.
I am a very cautious investor, and I do not think you are raining on our parade. I would be curious to hear who you believe are our pumpers. I have a pretty good idea, and I'm sure it would shock alot to find out who they are.
GLTY
Chenzo
I agree, wouldn't mind one bit if we consolidate this week between $2.20 and $2.35. Slow and steady is always better.
GLTA
Chenzo
Not me. I would think if the PPS is at $15, then we would be out of c-ship and uplisted. Two large hurdles cleared. Its only up from there. I am waiting for dividends.
GLTA
Chenzo
I would have gladly taken anything in the green today. Up 12% is a bonus and a sign that there is something big cooking here
GLTA
Chenzo
Congrats on making a profit going into the weekend. Good luck Monday morning.
Chenzo
I just added more at $2.08. If they pull it back to $2.04-$2.05 so be it. If it breaks $2.10 we may close on HOD
Uncomfortable telling people to buy or sell. So I will tell you what I did
GLTY
Chenzo
Not looking very good for the shorts....
IMO yesterday was a coordinated effort to short FNMA going into the Zillow conference. The bear raid hoped to capitalize on dooming comments from the speakers to cause panic selling into their raid.
Although the stock got hammered from its highs, I am calling the raid a failure. FNMA stabilized in the $1.95 area when the politicians did nothing more than re-state their existing opinions (thanks obit).
Something is going on here, and it is positive! Contrary to what many believe, I do not think this is an earnings or JPM settlement play. I have said this before, these events are priced into our share price. Housing start ups are made public weekly. It is no surprise that FnF are turning huge profits. As for the JPM settlement, these banks are going out of their way to settle. Yes for 40 cents on the dollar, but still are actively trying to settle. JPM will settle as will others, this is baked in.
This move is based on something more. I believe this move is because the tide and sentiment are turning in FnF favor. A lease on a new building and the PR of a new hire this week say that FnF are not going away!
What good are billion dollar settlements and $10+ billion quarterly earnings if FnF no longer exist a year from now?
I cant imagine shorts wanting to stay short over this weekend. Their raid failed! I expect an attempt to lower the PPS soon, as to allow them to cover. From that point on, it's up into the close and into next week.
GLTA
Chenzo
E Trade showed it as a sell
That would be a perfect setup for next week. If we close lower tomorrow, I feel we may touch the 50MA next week. It is said here a lot, but tomorrow will be very interesting
GLTA
Chenzo
Yes, I was on the long list. If it wasn't your list, it was the list that your assistant made up. Anyway, that is not important.
What you are perceiving as fear is actually caution. If you are not cautious in a stock like this, then you are a fool. Macho gets you broke in this game my friend; something else that a lot of newbies need to realize.
And finally, from your picture, I think I might be younger than you. You see everybody who lives in So Florida is not old. Try not to stereotype. Everything is not always as it seems. In life and in the stock market.
GLTY
Chenzo
At least you weren't the dumb ass who bought at $2.68
GLTY
Chenzo
Ouch! I've been dumped!
No biggie, It is my hard earned money and if I, or anyone wants to take profits, then it is my/our choice. There is no badge of honor in holding when the PPS is dropping like a stone. If a car came speeding at you, you'd get out of the way, wouldn't you?
I think it is silly to think that my small retail sell (compared to today's volume) had anything to do with where we are now.
If you did nothing today, you are down 8%. If you bought at the open, you are down 15%. If you bought in the frenzied top, you are down almost 30% and kicking yourself for making such a horrible trade.
By the way I am back in long, check my previous post, and I am up for the day.... That is what is really important and a lot of the newbies here need to understand that is the end goal. If FNMA hits big, then we will all be wealthy. If not, I hope that I took the chance to get out with what I could salvage. I will defend my cash anytime I feel it is necessary.
Amazing how the sediment changes. Down around the $1.00 area, we heard nothing but a lot of shareholders who wished they had sold in the $4.00-$5.00 area.
Anyway, I've never been one to follow a herd so enjoy your party, I'll enjoy my Maker's Mark down here in So Florida.
GLTA
Chenzo
If we can turn positive this afternoon, I feel the uptrend is still on and it would signal how strong this stock can be.
Purchased more @ $2.01
And this is why it is never foolish to take profits!!!
GLTA
Chenzo
10.5 mil shares traded in the first 10 minutes!
Unbelievable volume!
There was also no resistance at $2.00 or $2.13-$2.15....
Fooled me. I'm back in, at alittle higher, and still cautious.
This stock has momentum, just hoping that one of todays speakers don't say something stupid.
GLTA
Chenzo
I also got out yesterday at $2.13....Saw the way we were finishing and got back in at the close ($2.20)
There are a couple ways you could play this....
You could buy a 1/2 stake at the open and if it runs, then at least you got something. I am a very cautious investor, especially with a stock that is up over 100% in five weeks. Therefore, I would expect a pullback, and possibly fill the gap that we open today.
At that point you could buy the other 1/2 of your position. A lot depends on your trading restrictions. If you have restrictions, it makes things more difficult because if it goes against you, you can only sit and watch.
This is a tough place to be in, there are no concrete answers. You could go all in at the open and have it reverse in 30 minutes; you could also wait for a pullback that never comes.
I am giving you advice on what I have done in the past.
GLTY
Chenzo
Great day! Congrats to all longs
GLTA
Chenzo
90% profit in alittle more then one month...I'm not sorry
GLTY
Chenzo