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I realized that I could have not benefited from the EOD drop.
Reason being ITM options TODAY EXPIRING (puts in this case) will be closed by the broker well BEFORE the close as insufficient funds arise if would be executed.
Only OTM will be left alone, but with such a drop is difficult to pick the nearest to money OTM that will still remain OTM by close.
I'm thinking this would be yet another reason that would explain why the drops are delayed till very near the close ... so Joe six-pack won't benefit.
wow, $10 gap up
wow, $10 intraday selloff
wow, socialist spending coming and GOLD is MINUS FIVE PERCENT (BUYING OPP)
wow, economy is getting weaker and weaker and OIL up 8-10%
pfizer fumes
not even ONE vaccine shelled out
so much nonsense
I made some 100% on my morning puts, WANTED 256, but they didn't get it there so I took my double and yelped away - it could've been double again and even more with the EOD selling
can't win always
q is ...was this the HOW or the LOW (Lol)
tom big 2% gap
down
or
up
you can't tell
if you are smart and can then put the sink in it
nowwhat, make a word file with certain links (/downloads) , dates, and charts and pictures you deem more usable.
You can then find quick and redeem anything in the future nearly instantaneously.
It will be a breeze and no headache and no time lost.
It is very simple and easy to do and it goes a LLOOONNNNNGGGGGG way believe me.
Organizing in anything is helping.
nowwhat, check this for chart you wanted
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=154846348
it should also be saved in your uploaded "pictures" ?!
exhaustion day yet ???!!!
100 point SPX rise in... 15min
there is NO volume at these levels, so pretty much market makers by themselves playground
This fact calls for different strategic thinking
pointer:
----- same situation exists when price grinds sideways, then plunge fast and rise above the grinding (the quick 'V' is a market maker by themselves playground)
The 'V' of market maker only playground is easiest to see in ONE minute charts MULTI-day where the run is so fast you can barely see the 1min dots of the move.
Good work
Insuficient capital is a problem, I agree.
But then what is insufficient?!
You can open a forex account with few hundreds and trade and be happy.
You can trade options with few thousands (but never all in).
I red only a few of your posts to get a feel.
I sense you lack first and foremost a strategy of trading.
Then you lack understanding of options.
Then (because of your options choices) you lack a clear short term trading system. (i.e. trade in-out with a 15min SMA20 and stochastic)
Then you (kind of 'of course' since no trading plan) lack discipline.
The inadequate funding comes THE LAST of your worries on the list.
Lacking those you relied HEAVILY on the luck side as emotions got a hold of your mind. It is and will always be a recipe for handing over your good money to market makers.
Don't "WAIT" until you save 100k, but try to build your strategy, trading plan, system, etc.
BUILD A TRAP FOR MONEY
I think this advice fits everybody.
Every day of this run-up SPY saw buying volume in the morning AND near the close
also, the last few days channel very nicely on the chart
That's SPY as the futures are skewed on this
And to my earlier point on inflation and equally (your) dollar damaging presidents, the GOLD is RUNNING an astounding +++++3%
It stand to validate the crude reality
By the same metric SPY at 360 is UNDER-valued, and gasoline at $10 a gallon is UNDER-valued
Cost of living about to go through the roof (Fed even states EVERY TIME they want inflation)
outlook of steps of this run
1st step up Nov 2 , maximized at $9 up (from prior dump low 323 to 332 day-after maximization plateau)
2st step up Nov 3 , maximized at $11 up (from prior dump low 327 to 338 day-after maximization plateau)
3st step up Nov 4 , maximized at $13 up (from prior dump low 335 to 348 day-after maximization plateau)
4st step up Nov 5 , prior dump low 344. Present day-after maximization so far is 352, so a step of $8 so far happened.
So judging by the smallest prior step of $9, this still have about $1 room up (352+1= 353), to a historic max of $5 remnant of largest $13 step (352+5= 357).
We can also observe that the algos run every day EXTRA $2 (9-11-13 ... so 15 now?)
So if today would symmetric growth be $15 step, then maximization today by this metric would be 352+7= 359
Steps' legs sometimes are broken into 2. So a $9 step-up will be broken in two segments totaling the $9. Still valid.
No, letj21er is right, it's elevator up, not steps.
Steps vs elevator is speed of move and NOT the shape of intraday.
Pops +2% and +3% A DAY is elevator speed.
Let's magnify to see it better - if the pops (up OR down) will be 50% (FIFTY PERCENT) every day ... but in a shape of "steps" you can't call that steps.
You can call it elevator , rocket or such but steps will not fit.
I would think that 1% would be too hot and a maximization of steps.
Yes, if we ignore the importance of percentage it looks steps-like.
While I perfectly understand and agree with letj21er, I wouldn't use the word elevator. I think is wrong term introduced. I would prefer "RUN".
But the most important point in the picture is that SPY is more happily going up than down where it's taking it's time for any pitiful dip and correction.
If I think about it, doesn't matter who wins presidency for market/SPY, as both people are the same when comes to dollar destruction , they both want it, so inflation will run up no matter what and so prices of any asset and that includes SPY.
In other words if Biden wins and market drops is just a buy opportunity.
There is no bears either.
You can't sell calls bought higher AND held through decay loss for +500% profit in a -2% down day low.
It defies all logic.
Quote 1: "Still holding 335 11/2 calls purchased yesterday."
Quote 2: "Sold my 11/2 335p here at 11.40 for about 5x
Trading less and making more. "
Not above 30? How about that clear white and long candle above 30 on Oct 23?
If that's not then what it is?
What else would constitute a candle above 30 then.. ?
Both the day and the timeframe/s (30min, 60min, daily) all closed higher above prior day as well, a clear technical violation to upside
Wondering what is your view
Quote: "None of the indexes want to get above the 30 minute 50ma until they hear from the big boys. Same with 60 minute 50ma."
That aside, how much bullishness you see in charts short term?
me? NONE
I'm too chicken to short the inflation, not yet anyway. Not having inside info to position either like the big criminals do.
So I took the next best thing, sold calls against my calls position to at least have some protection.
The market action COULD favor me. Meaning rally slowly then collapse from my hedges strikes. I'm a sinner so I don't think I'm worth it.
But I am seriously thinking puts. Wonder how that fits with the debate, but who cares.
I would love to agree with you. But unless SPY opens at 346 or better this is a reversal for me and I'll have to sell my remaining calls and get puts. At least for a while.
It seems to be a paper thin up on futures, only 343 ish...
So no cigar if it stays impotent like this..
Selling CAN go on low volume.
Maybe because not many traders are long then not much to sell these levels?
Maybe
so it's a hold you guys?
it looks like a selling program is following the orders
"no bounce for you" said the market Nazi
I think that the red day is just a distraction to add drama.
No one cares, SPY won't go down for real.
Volume is MIA also !!! So is this even serious selling ??
However, this insistent selling manages to turn few indicators down for me. I'm thinking shorting but I have to find some stepping stones first.
Red day for me with holding calls, but I will pocket some from hedges, too bad not the best but still helps. I'm still learning on hedging. I wish I leaned FASTER Lol
Another bearish thing, adding to my earlier comments, SPY is NOT holding well in premarket and dropping
Premarket is a decent indicator more often than not about the market action of the day.
Haha, that's hilarious..
HOWEVER, it seems that the boys are opening SPY BELLOW the resistance... !!!
That is NOT their modus operandi when they want the market higher.
All kind of reasons for a strong support for open above resistance that they do.
It COULD open under and run above, but that is not the normal thing for them.
They should have opened SPY above Friday.
They do NOT.
So that's a bit discouraging.
And some have said before that Mondays would resemble Fridays signature.
And Friday was morning pump and afternoon dump.
Who knows...
You are partly right.
The only thing that matters is money CREATION.
So if 100 billion is created it won't make too much of a difference where exactly they throw it at.
The American government is literally carpet bombing the market with money creation. Where exactly the bags with billions fall is not making much of a difference as the market is under inflation attack and we all feel the pain of debasing of the dollar (so cosmetic rise in assets and equities... like SPY)
It's foolish to look at a calendaristic anniversary alone without a technical anniversary match (similarity in chart setup)
Furthermore, once you already have a position in the market it's foolish to look around for low-sense information like "anniversary" to evaluate your situation as you will be biased and tend to only see things supporting your bias, which will alter your senses and will hinder your ability to see if you are positioned wrong and you will be potentially dancing on the Titanic all the way to the end.
Best is to have a clear cut criteria for your trade. Then if THAT changes , then you exit your money.
Well, ... unless you like gambling, in which case sanity of trading doesn't matter, so forget about my take...
I would like to buy ATM calls to hold over weekend if this goes bellow current LOD
This is my intent
I had calls from overnight (not enough), sold in the morning
on the other hand vix is showing some bid and could inspire SPY to go to 342 in short order
But vix is not cut in stone, so I have to read SPY chart (with bias)
FANG too show some toothless action, so who knows, but still I consider the CALLS
Debating which Funds use what is tantamount to debating a person - we are NOT debating a person ... and not even a fund or their fund managers.
TA works, works for me and many here.
I don't know or care what fund mangers use.
Yes, I agree, this IS an addiction, at least for us here it is..
if you change only ONE word in your post you will see just how ridiculous the conclusion of statement in first paragraph is ("TA not working")
Change:
"How'd all those QQQ puts work out for you???"
With:
"How'd all those QQQ CALLS work out for you???"
Remember, we do NOT debate a person or his trading, but the value of TA.
Charts and TA clearly showed an uptrend, therefore CALLS are the main ones for the trading.
Therefore TA and charting WORK and VERY WELL !
TO ALL - players, please state in 2 letters or so the duration INTENDED of your trade.
Say ..... "bought 349p DT"
Or ..... "hold/ON (or similar)" (meaning swing play)
The importance:
Your trading aside, if you don't state what you intent we don't know your true opinion of the market.
It does NOT matter WHY you have the whatever expectation of the market direction.
Also it doesn't matter how long the swing you expect, how long you will consider to hold. Just knowing you hold is important, not number of days (as beyond 1 day things can really change one way or another).
So for example, if you buy puts but daytrade, then we do know that you believe market will drop but only short term.
If you Hold, then we know your belief of market outlook is longer term.
You can't have a belief of long term up, but buy only daytrade. As a trader I know that in holding in right direction makes way more money than daytrading in right direction. So a person NOT holding but only daytrading has little confidence of continuation.
So you can keep private if you wish about the true quantity of your trade, but please, for the sake of evaluating among us the direction of the market and inspire each other in this regard do state the duration INTENDED for your position.
You CAN sell your position even in a daytrade way, even if you initially said "swing", but it is the original INTENT that matters.
How high or how low you expect the market to go? You may or may not say, but having a position (skin in the game) and stating the duration INTENDED of the trade is very helpful to gauge our collective mind here.
I hope you guys and ladies see and understand the value of doing this seemingly little thing.
Do the best you can.
Thanks to all
Ok, thanks Ferda.
A spike is not considered "and (price) moves above/bellow X", only a close will qualify and for good valid reasons (plural).
And since two time frames are presented, say 5min and 15 min, it is very possible that price will close in 5min above X, but NOT in 15min, therefore it will be just a spike in 15min so it will qualify in 5min but not in 15min.
Therefore a "stick to ONE time frame" is necessary imo.
The "few candles" above/bellow a line is a wise take.
But just like in my comment above of 5 vs 15, here too a quantity of the "few" is needed (i.e. 3x5 is 15min after all) - and one of the best ways to see this visually is through a short time average (i.e. SMA3 would represent a 3 candles - not really since it refers to closings, but very close). So a cross of that average over a "level X" should do the trick in a visual easy to see form.
Now agreeing/deciding with those "levels X" to watch is a totally another story.
IMO 1min is best to reveal "levels X-es", a say 10 day chart with 1min where you can see price fights. I do other sht, but that I found helpful for this type of trading.
In what time frame chart is your view of "and reverses"
And what "and reverses" means, means 20 cents reverse a reverse? a 50 cents? 2 dollar is reverse?
What?
Same question is in regards to "and goes bellow" or "and goes above"..
"An opening move that goes above 348.84 and reverses below is a short."
"An opening move that goes below 346.16 and reverse to go above is long..."
made money with calls EVEN in a down day
you can't say same thing about puts
It's hard to make money with puts in up days
it stands to show you something
premiums actually increase in down days
Quote: "Just another premium leaker."
still not vol, so not big money participation, only small trading
My problem is not the trust. I trust my charts 100% not 75% much less 50% which is coin flip.
I never spend time to entertain an indicator or setup that shows low validation (trust), not even occasionally. Reason being that I have some other/s that is/are qualified and up to the job ready on standby.
My problem is which one should I place my money on right now.
So if I know level1 and level2 and ....level6 are VALID then what?!
But price CAN go to say level 3, so if I already put my money on level 1 and 2 then I will be angry a bit and the greed will make me also feel worse.
And the greed stops me in the first place from spreading money on many levels but wants me to put it all on THE ONE that matters.
So in other words if I trust level1 but price went on dipping to level2 I do NOT see level1 failing.
Bringing back the sport example, if I am to pass the ball to a team member to score, and I see 3 possibilities, I will be struggling to decide which one is the right choice right now although I trust all 3 of them. And if whoever I passed the ball to failed to score, it won't mean to me I must not trust him now.
Trust is built over time, and it is earned.
In charts my trust is built by seeing a chart working more than it fails. I believe it's the same for every chartist.
BTW, my 100% trust in an indicator is in vicinity of 70-80% win in real life. So failure is ASSURED in 20-30% of cases. And this is the "100%" ones. ..... I have others "very good" that are pegged at 70%..., just imagine the real life performance...
It looks like the morning read on light volume and low pro-participation would be correct.
Alternatively it would be a churn and burn premium day.
Nope, I didn't question your or anyone else technique.
I don't do such thing.
First we debated about using something that can not be trusted.
I said I see that being impossible.
Then we moved on to elaborate it and I elaborated about trust in a similar example that I found, and said a thing or two about how I approach this in my trading.
I have zero opposition on other people techniques or indicators or whatever else they use. I absolutely LOVE to hear other people opinions and stories.
So engaging in discussions about techniques, or any shop talk is really cool imo. Sorry if something didn't feel right, if it did then it was 100% unintentional. (I don't know what it was honestly)
I find it reasonable for SPY to rise almost $3 from open or about 0.8% give or take.
Judging by the money velocity it could be even more
It's also reasonable to close near those highs
If that fails then an opposite scenario becomes reasonable
so 347 give or take?
But I see strength so scenario 1 seems more likely
Not sport in school backyard, but sport for both Fame/Name and for MILLION$$$
That would make the example a clear "apple with apple" comparison when we put our own money in here. It's a perfect and valid example.
I do use confirmation, but that only to confirm a setup. Once confirmed then I trust it, no more confirmation needed, and if my setup say buy mid BB, then I will buy mid BB on tag alone with ZERO further confirmation of any kind. I even studied on just how much of a shakeout a setup tolerates, say in case mid BB "fails" to hold. This I learned from a very very very smart woman from India (her writings, as I'm not from there).
Quote: "But we aren't playing sports, we are playing with our money"
volume premarket half mil, no pro participation
I don't use 4hr because I don't trust it, and the lack of trust is because I didn't study it, and I didn't study it because it is too lag for my trading.
When I trust something I don't wait for confirmation. Say mid BB in a time frame and setup I trust, I would buy it (or sell it) without waiting for even 1 block let alone 2 blocks of time.
As by the time 2 blocks are built the price can be very far away and won't come back for me.
It's like in sport in a team. I will trust someone based on the past performance alone. I will GIVE that guy the ball to score on trust alone without confirmation. I won't wait for few goals and only then ok I will pass the ball to him (probably still reluctantly).
A winning team and strategy is based on trust, a built trust, tested before, and used without second guessing, even if it fails sometimes badly.
That's my view
So you use something you don't trust?
I fail to see how that can be possible.
Quote: "Saying I don't "trust it" is NOT the same as saying "I don't use it"
I obviously do, look at it"
That's a useless hyperbole
There is a big difference between a fart and a 30min chart.
You trust the 4hr chart because you studied it and found good setups and follow that.
That would be your "secret trading formula"
It is exactly the same case with any time frame chart down to 1min chart and up to yearly.
I found plenty of setups that can be trusted in almost every time frame.
Sometimes they fail. One of the major reasons that a setup fails is when it meets a COUNTER bigger setup, (sometimes is heralded by smaller setups turning sometimes not)
Example 4hour chart setup can fail when meets a COUNTER weekly setup, and the failure may be heralded by say 5 or 15 or 30 min reversals (or not).
Quote: "Never trust a fart - or a 30 Minute chart. Even the 1 Hour gave the false "bounce" signal, but I wasn't buying it."
Hopefully helps