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I think once the short-term traders get taken out, GV resumes its uptrend as they are extremely undervalued based on the great business environment they are in. A couple of contracts here could push their earnings to $1.00/share and even with a multiple of 5 or six that takes us to $6 +..... There is no risk here now that they have flushed the momentum traders IMHO...
Thoughts?
The answer to the GV puzzle is in this article. Their p/e is 75-80% less than its peers. Even with this run the market cap is under $100 million. Bottom line is I see this pull back as a healthy correction. I expect the target of around $6.25 to be achieved at some point this year.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1060761-5-stocks-to-watch-in-power-grid-construction
Goldfield is a leading provider of electrical construction and maintenance services in the energy infrastructure industry primarily in the southeastern, mid-Atlantic, and western regions of the United States. The company specializes in installing and maintaining electrical transmission lines for a wide range of electric utilities. Goldfield has been growing rapidly with revenue growth of 161% for the first 9 months of the year. Furthermore, EPS for the first nine months swung from -$0.03 in 2011 to $0.30 in 2012.
GV stated the following in the Q3'12 earnings report: "About $24.4M of the current backlog is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year." That should result in the highest revenue quarter of the year and the fifth consecutive quarter of sequentially increasing revenue. However, investors are a bit skeptical as a large part of backlog is one big contract. I think that there are many reasons to be optimistic and that investors shouldn't be so skeptical. Here are the reasons for my optimism going forward:
The macro trends for the power grid industry suggest increasing revenue as identified above.
A director, Jeffrey Eberwein purchased 140,000 shares in the month of November. That is a significant sized purchase for a name of this size. Insider buying is often a sign that the stock is undervalued particularly when purchases of this size are made.
The company made a large investment of $7.9M in additional equipment in July of this year. They have steadily been investing as property, building and equipment has increased by $13.6M in the first nine months of the year to $24.1M from $10.5M. It seems highly unlikely that the company would invest this much in equipment if significant follow on orders were not expected.
The company stated the following in their Q3'12 PR: "With the strong team we have assembled, we believe we are well positioned to take advantage of future opportunities to build on our record growth." Their comment seems to indicate that they have plenty of additional growth ahead of them.
Other names in this space are expected to grow in 2013 (see commentary below).
The table below shows some metrics for these five companies. As you can see from this table, GV appears to be very undervalued based upon it's tiny PE which is a mere fraction of it's peers. I believe that the skepticism shown by this PE will prove to be unfounded for the reasons identified above. Because of this low PE, I believe GV is the most undervalued in this growing field and thus is the most attractive.
Company
TTM Revenue
Backlog
Diluted EPS Last Quarter
TTM EPS
PE
Goldfield Corp.
$67.3M
$53.6M
$0.10
$0.36
5.3
MasTec, Inc.
$3.703B
$3.330B
$0.34
$0.96
24.7
MYR Group, Inc.
$0.985B
$0.491B
$0.41
$1.43
15.6
Pike Electric Corporation
$0.758B
Not Disclosed
$0.26
$0.50
19.8
Quanta Services, Inc.
$6.140B
$4.17B
$0.45
$1.29
20.9
yes i agree on three, I just think that there is some powerful news lurking that could push this much higher...
not a bad idea. however the 8k filing about loans cannot be why this stock has exploded higher there must be more.
Any news Doone?
He actually wrote this article on MOnday and was waiting for Seeking/Alpha to publish it. The timing seems ironic. Let's look on the bright side folks, you could be an Apple shareholder, I was watching Apple just before earnings and it was trading around $525 , now it is $460 that's quite a wallop for a company with $137 billion dollars in cash , yet on this same night Netflix who has virtually no money is a darling. Who says the markets make any sense?
Well If he has another article tomorrow saying he is now short based on this ruling then we know what we already know he is. You fill in the blank.....Someone had access to this ruling as soon as markets closed because the trading was rather odd. There was a 60,000 share buy and immediate selling pressure for no apparent reason but of course we now know why.
New Ravicher article
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1128381-google-request-to-postpone-vringo-ongoing-royalty-motion-ignored?source=email_rt_article_readmore
As I disclose herein, I am long VRNG as of the submission of this article to the Seeking Alpha editors (VRNG is at 3.22) and my personal opinion at the moment it has a fair value of about 3.55-3.70. I'm not a financial advisor, and that is not a suggestoin to any one to buy or sell VRNG. I merely state it because the Seeking Alpha editors have asked me to do so.
Not surprising. Almost everyone on the Vrngofreeforum has put their shares in a cash account and I hope everyone here has also. When you have your shares in a cash account they can't be loaned out. This is starting to make an impact.
Here it is:
A controversial stock here on Seeking Alpha, Vringo (VRNG), is currently sporting a 30% negative rebate with limited or no availability to borrow for short sellers. However, RIMM's negative rebate may soon surge to VRNG levels because new shares to borrow are getting very difficult to locate and some institutions have begun "recalling" shares that have been lent out to existing short sellers who have already sold the stock.
They just did it again . Two 2000 share trades above market at 3.21 when the market was 3.18- 3.19? Actually I think I know why these trades are going off. These are stop losses for short positions which are set above the market always. I think there is a lack of shares to short and some people are being forced to close out positions or they have set tight stops and the mm's are taking them out.
ASks above the market have started this week. Never saw them before. There were 5 or six yesterday and today almost ten already. They (manipulators, shorts, mm's) are trying hard to keep this down. It is working since the market always moves down to where the big volume is. Right now a large buy order at $3.17 is being filled.
Yes I agree but I don't see Google going that route. They have not done anything that indicates this is their choice so far. Hope I am wrong. They will ono act if they are forced to.
You are saying if Google buys Vringo their shares will go down?
I agree but they are such an arrogant company. They have money and are very litigious. The smarter move would have been to settle this before they went to court. The settlement price would have been a lot less. But they choose to fight everything. Look at the motion filed last week about a $188,000 bill Vringo says they are due. The Google lawyers in their letters can't understand why Vrngo does not accept their position, they think VRNG is only due $45,000. So we are dealing with a very stubborn arrogant company. I think they need to have JJ's ruling hammer them before they come to the table. Only a strong judgement will move them.
Good luck with that? Actually not really. Why would you want to buy this if it got to that price? If it gets down there I am long gone that would mean all the news will be against Vrng and there is no reason to own it .
Considering what Google just posted in earnings, the settlement price is going to go up. This is why they wanted JJ to rule already. Settlement won't be cheap but when you consider how much they can lose potentially it is their best option. will they do it, who knows they are an arrogant bunch so we will find out.
$50,175,000,000: That,s Google bottom-line earnings for 2012
--
Google Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $14.42 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2012. Consolidated revenues would have been $15.24 billion had Motorola Home been included.
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. January 22, 2013 Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) today announced financial results for the quarter and the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012.
We ended 2012 with a strong quarter, said Larry Page, CEO of Google. Revenues were up 36% year-on-year, and 8% quarter-on-quarter. And we hit $50 billion in revenues for the first time last year not a bad achievement in just a decade and a half. In today multi-screen world we face tremendous opportunities as a technology company focused on user benefit. Its an incredibly exciting time to be at Google.
As usual, most of the companys revenue - a whopping $12 billion of the quarters $14 billion total, came from ads.
Read more: http://vringo.freeforums.net/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1163#ixzz2IkFmHWJB
Link: http://investor.google.com/earnings/2012/Q4_google_earnings.html
This board is officially dead which I take as a good contrary indicator. People for the most part have nothing to say because there is nothing to talk about. Lots of chatter going on at Steve Kims board but not here. This shows me the sentiment is really down and I don't blame anyone for feeling this way. There has been no tangible news for over a month the company is not even talking. I sent Cliff an email and he didn't respond. So they are in the cone of silence at Vringo. Something is going on in the silence. I guess we will find out at some point.
NO chatter anywhere and GV just keeps going higher, gotta love it...
Ravicher has stated on Stocktwits that he has submitted an article for Seeking Alpha to publish. They have not done so yet but in his instablog we can see the content of this article.
I review the relevant dates and filings that have occurred regarding Google's request to postpone Vringo's motion for ongoing royalties. I also provide my analysis of the likelihood that Google's postponement request will be granted by the Judge. I may submit the content of this Ravicher Report to the Seeking Alpha editors for publication. Seeking Alpha publishing policies prevent me from submitting content that I had previously made available for free. Thus, if you do not wish to pay for this Ravicher Report, I respect and understand that. If I decide to submit its content to Seeking Alpha as an article and the Seeking Alpha editors review and approve my article, they will publish it then for free.
So he is going to argue that the courts will allow Google's postponement request. This is probably the source of pressure on today's price IMHO
Read more: http://vringo.freeforums.net/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1151&page=2#ixzz2IiursroL
If everyone did this shorts will have a hard time finding shares, some brokerages will force you to cover because there will be a shortage of shares. You could have a mini-squeeze ahead of the news.
There is an initiative on the Vringofreeforums to take your shares out of a margin account and put them into a cash account. My shares have always been in a cash account. I suggest if you want to see the stock rise without the benefit of news then everyone here should do likewise.
Exactly and the flippers don't know when the judge will rule. It will come out of the blue people will sell on the run then as they usually do and then the stock will be halted at first for the 10% rule. Once news is out, it could open several dollars higher trapping the shorts and screwing the pre-conditioned, who have been flipping on every run. All I hear is it will take a long time and everyone has their own opinion, he is not going to call the press, he's just going to act.
I disagree. what will happen is this , the flippers who have been conditioned to flip will do just that, BUT when there is real news and a judge actually awards VRNG what it deserves, that is when the institutions will step in. They will buy and support the share price . Their need for shares will overwhelm the flippers. This has happened many times before. It happened to VHC and any stock that has been trapped in a range. Look at bio-techs as an example the flippers get pushed aside when there is real news. Long-term owners always disappear when there is an event like this, not all but most won't be around when this is in growth mode. Right now it is a flippers paradise agreed but watch what happens on real news.
Not only that but there has been a big seller from about $3.25 he is chasing the stock down seems to still have shares to sell @ $3.18 EDIT $3.17
No worries I made a few moves today both profitable. As I said a long time ago I have stock which I never trade but I have other shares that I always trade including today: :)
Thanks doone I will check it out.
I think when it gets "discovered" might be the time to exit.
I also find it positive that with a run like this you have absolutely no chatter on any board. That tells me lots of people have not discovered this yet despite the run.
Too much fraud, manipulation, and greed here to be able to predict anything.....
Funny thing is that history repeats until it doesn't. Wash rinse repeat only works for so long, eventually the clothes are clean!
The judge will deliver good news all around. Google's efforts to delay are not going unnoticed. The results will be stunning, still don't understand their arrogance they have a chance to put their fate in their own hands but are will to wait for the judge to put the hammer down. I supposed Google got to where they are being this way but it is quite foolish IMHO.
I don't think so. Sentiment seems to have improved across the boards. Also if you study the block trades today this is good volume and interest. I expect VRNG to keep strengthening from here
I have studied charts for a long time and this type of volume increase implies there is major news on the way. I also heard that GV is now number one according to IBD best stocks under $10 FYI.
I took a position yesterday and I think the company is now delivering on this promise.
Here is what the president and CEO said last quarter.
Mr. Sottile further said, "The dramatic increase in revenue from transmission line construction has been accompanied by a marked improvement in operating margins. A major portion of our current backlog is represented by a large transmission line project in Texas scheduled for completion in August 2013. With the strong team we have assembled, we believe we are well positioned to take advantage of future opportunities to build on our record growth."
Wasted post..
why not look at
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EDU as an example?
BTW folks this is the guy who said this about LPH a few months ago, so if you want to follow him now go ahead:
LPH "may" become a target.
A buy out target.
Living in Hawaii,Ive seen many mainland firms try to
make a footprint here on the islands.Business is heavy Local/Union
here on the islands.Mainland companies have been buying up
local business's here,left and right.I see LPH as a footprint
for a Larger Foreign Firm.I see China as also heavy local and may
be very tough to enter w/o local support.
Just a thought for the longer term folks.Not me.
Hi Tom
Thank's for your thoughts. I wasn't looking for agreement or disagreement I am simply sharing my observations.
Its not a shakedown. This is the result of frustrations from many people. Read the three main boards for VRNG, here, freeboards and Stocktwits and you see many long-term holders losing faith and/or believing nothing will happen here for a while so they can sell and come back in a month or longer or not at all. In addition, there is seemingly no update or expectation for a conclusion on any front, this can't continue indefinitely people only have so much patience. The stock price won't change the outcome but the smart way to have played this so far has been to trade it and go away after a run.
Thank you for your kind words. I try and look at something without bias which I don't have here. I only seek the truth and am try to find any information that will give us understanding. I am also mindful of the innocent shareholder who bought Longwei based on publicly available information. How some of these people can be so cruel knowing how much money people have lost is mind boggling. Yet these are the same people that heap insults on what they claim Longwei did. To me this is ironic. Anyway I will keep trying. I was a broker during the crash due to 9/11 and 2008 so I know hard people work for their money and how devastating these things can be.
With respect to defence, the company cannot act like they were on a Yahoo message board, they are legally bound and/or directed as to what they should and should not say. For example if they decided to do an audit is that going to get done in a week and a half?
I could care less if he resigns , so no need to be patient. I think you need to be patient since you have been calling for his resignation 3 times now. Finally I am not his friend. The only reason I choose to post here is to counter some of the b/s I saw before not so much now otherwise I have no interest.
So what's he waiting for? it's been two weeks he knows what's going on. You and others had him resigning the next day. Not only did he not resign but now he is sending out email to those on a company list. Seems odd, what does he gain by hanging around?
First You said :
Toups will resign..give it a few days.
Then:
What on Earth is taking Toups so long to resign??? Someone published his address...you should call the local news there..start showing up at some front doors.
And now:
The request for questions was months or at least weeks before the cat got out. And yes there will be a resignation or at least a disappearance from the public.
Seems you are determine for Toups to resign?