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It's all about liquidity -
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/07/weekly-commentary-utmost-crazy.html
Excerpt:
For perspective, U.S. M2 rose a record $950 billion during 2019. China’s M2 expansion more than doubled this amount in only six months. And with U.S. M2 up over $3 TN, combined Chinese and U.S. first-half “money” supply growth approached an incredible $5.2 TN
July 7 – Wall Street Journal (Jacky Wong): “Analysts fret that U.S. markets have become irrational thanks to so-called ‘Robinhood’ retail traders with plenty of time on their hands. But American markets have nothing on China. Chinese stock markets have been on a tear lately: the CSI 300 index, a gauge of the largest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, has gained 14% just in the past week… What really seems to have gotten Chinese investors excited however, is state media’s sudden switch to a bullish tone. A Monday front-page editorial in the state-owned China Securities Journal said it’s now important to foster a ‘healthy bull market’—in part because of more ‘complicated’ global trade and economic relations.”
The bigger the Bubble, the more intense the speculative fervor; the greater the attendant government intervention; and the more convinced market participants become that officials won’t allow a bust. Throw Trillions at systems already acutely prone to Bubble excess and you’re courting disaster (that’s you, Washington and Beijing).
Also watch Europe and China for economic downturns
The problem is this market is driven almost solely by Fed liquidity and government deficits and the bull market is long in the tooth. Once Biden begins to fumble and he enacts some of his agenda including higher taxes in a recession, the markets will react violently. The deficits cannot expand to infinity and beyond.
Vizsla (VIZSF) up 96% today according to Schwab.com
https://stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=vizsf
Vizsla Drills 2,889 G/T Silver and 107.9 G/T Gold over 3.7 Metres within 1,808 G/T Silver and 66.8 G/T Gold over 6.0 Metres at Panuco, Mexico : https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2020/07/08/vizsla-drills-2-889-g-t-silver-and-107-9-g-t-gold-over-3-7-metres-within-1-808
re: Why Condor is up -
Quinton Hennigh is a major reason, but there's more
Condor Resources: An easy to Test 10+ Moz Target And More : https://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/condor-resources/condor-resources-an-easy-to-test-10-moz-target-and-more/
I think a Democratic clean sweep (including the Senate) would be very negative for the markets. Also, let's see who Biden picks as a running mate...that could also affect the markets if it is a far left candidate.
Tech stock prices are obscene. AMZ has a market cap of $1.5Trillion, Alphabet and Apple are just shy of $1Trillion.
Yep, Condor keeps moving relentlessly higher. Here's another one I bought 5K shares of at $0.58 on 6/29/20. It was priced at $0.40 in mid June. Today it is trading at $1.38, up $0.55 (67%) based on good drill results:
Vizsla Drills 2,889 G/T Silver and 107.9 G/T Gold over 3.7 Metres within 1,808 G/T Silver and 66.8 G/T Gold over 6.0 Metres at Panuco, Mexico : https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2020/07/08/vizsla-drills-2-889-g-t-silver-and-107-9-g-t-gold-over-3-7-metres-within-1-808
Disclosure : I own 5K VIZSF and 900K CNRIF
re: Makes no sense. I think it makes a lot of sense. The worse things get, investors believe the more likely the Fed is to inject a lot of liquidity. The bubble expands until it collapses and as Powell says, the Fed never runs out of newly printed money.
One for the record books -
Aurelian started at less the $1.00 and as of the date of this article was near $40.00. The company was sold to Kinross which then sold it to Lundin due to government restrictions on drilling the property. Gotta know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'em, when to walk away, and when to run.
https://www.northernminer.com/news/aurelian-gold-discovery-takes-centre-stage/1000207186/
I agree and I've done that, but is it not like looking for a needle in a haystack.
Wait for Congress to pass the heroes act which will be another $1Trillion stimulus package. Should happen before end of July.
Large cap miners are good to have and they're relatively safe, but they will not make you a lot of money. I had one miner which I bought for $0.18 and it went to $5.00. That's where you can make a lot of money and at $0.18, you aren't risking a whole lot. The exploration companies are the ones that make the huge gains and they aren't that hard to find. Watch IRVRF which I bought for $1.04 (now trading at $2.64), CNRIF which I bought as low as $0.015 (now trading at $0.11), ISVLF which I bought as low as $0.18 (now trading at $0.52), WTHVF which I bought as low as $0.15 (now trading at $0.66), and there are many more like these which I hold. And some of these low prices were just about 3-4 months ago.
Hold that thought. I'll check back with you when some of my miners go up by 10 fold or more (CNRIF has already increase over 8 fold from its low and I'm expect another 10 plus fold increase from current price). Do your own due diligence -
Some of these mining shares will move substantially higher based on real drill results. Miners have to conform to 4301 requirements which removes fraudulent miners.
UPDATE: New Silver Supply Is Drying Up Faster Than Death Valley : https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=v.ipt&postid=31198546
My comment : I like Impact Silver (ISVLF). Also, Condor Resources (CNRIF) continues to push higher. Yesterday, CNRIF closed at $0.1317, up $0.02279 (21%) after closing up 20% on Thursday as well. CNRIF is trading on heavy volume. I'm expecting the share price to exceed $1.00 and probably a lot higher.
Disclosure : I own 900K shares of CNRIF. My last purchase was 50K shares at $0.0283 in April. I also own 500K shares of Impact Silver (ISVLF).
"Watershed" Moment: Is Gold Signaling Stocks Now On "Shaky Footing"? : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watershed-moment-gold-signaling-stocks-now-shaky-footing
Excerpt : This also lines up with my view that we’re still in the early stages of a monster bull market for precious metals, one that will really get going later in 2020 and last several years.
As an aside : the line "May god have mercy on our (their) souls" was most memorable at the end of the move Jumanji
How Long Will The Vandals Run Amok? : https://www.zerohedge.com/political/buchanan-how-long-will-vandals-run-amok
My comment : They tried to take down Andrew Jackson's statue near the White House. It's insane and it's wrong. I also disagree with the removal of statues of Confederate soldiers, especially Gen Robert E Lee. At some point there will be a big backlash against the destruction.
I think the government and the Fed need to let the economy function freely. It's not free money. We will all pay big time and for a very long time for what's happening now and what's been happening for the past 30 years in this country. The Fed has made certain that we do not have free markets or a free economy. I no longer hope for a better America. I think it's too late and there are too many forces that only want to destroy everything (without reason or logic). From Washington, Columbus, Gen Grant, Francis Scott Keyes, abolitionists, and civil war statues being torn down, there little left to destroy. And our leaders are so not up to the task. The US is being driven by extremists on both sides. Our next president will either be milk toast senile Biden or narcissistic ignorant Trump. Biden will be under pressure to select a black woman running mate and if she's lesbian, he will have all of the bases covered. Biden may not survive a full term at least mentally. The first major geopolitical crises he faces will reveal his impotence. I know I control none of what's happening and all I can do is try to protect myself. Financially, that means buying and holding PM mining shares.
That's what we need to break the paper gold market : a case in point being at the COMEX, where right now unprecedented numbers of COMEX gold futures contracts are moving into delivery.
With gold futures contracts representing 1.73 million ozs of gold wanting delivery, and only 3.07 million ounces of Registered gold in the COMEX vaults, that means deliveries are already 56% of registers stocks
Condor Resources (CNRIF) jumping higher -
CNRIF closed at $0.1029, up $0.0294 (40%) today on heavy volume of over 1Million shares. I'm expecting the share price to exceed $1.00 and possibly a lot higher.
Disclosure : I own 900K shares of CNRIF. My most recent purchase was for 50K shares at $0.0283 on 4/13/20 (just 2 months ago). I've been holding shares for at least 8 years, many of which were bought for $0.015. Patience and due diligence is starting to pay off.
Correction: Trump's rally was to be in Tulsa OK. Trump has now rescheduled the rally.
Insanity reigns supreme –
We are living in a world where the irrational is declared rational, where violence, looting, and destruction are deemed justified, and where long standing monuments are desecrated without any understanding of their true history and meaning. Winston Churchill’s monument was defaced with the words “Churchill was a racist”, Chistopher Columbus’ statue was torn down, as were numerous statues of Confederate soldiers. A lot of this destruction is accompanied by some very ignorant statements such as one young black woman who said “they lost the war, now they worship at these statues”. Just who does she think “they” are and who worships at these statues. Was Martin Luther King’s monument erected for people to worship at ? The extremist, I think, do not want equality, they want superiority. Here, in Seattle, we have a very liberal set of politicians. Some of the protestors have taken over and held 5 city blocks in downtown Seattle for about 2 weeks now. They’ve renamed the area “Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone” or CHAZ. The mayor claims this is just a block party and Seattle has block parties all the time. This is the same mayor who went to South Texas to make a statement about her perceived mistreatment of illegals in detention by ICE. One Seattle City Council woman led protestors into the Council chambers and demanded the mayor’s resignation because the mayor was not liberal enough. I suspect the CHAZ party can go on indefinitely since the mayor has no intention of doing anything about it. The protestors are demanding that the Seattle Police be defunded. I’ve also listened to a number of black people being interviewed on TV in which they are calling for a complete defunding of the police force (i.e. elimination of the police). They need to be careful what they wish for. The Seattle Police are prohibited from using tear gas, pepper spray, or rubber bullets on protesters. The police have their hands tied by the mayor and the council.
It just seems to me that these protests have been more violent and destructive than any I have ever seen. And the news media has to some degree been complicit. I am not a Trump fan, but the media looks for any opportunity to criticize Trump. Trump plans to hold a rally on June 19 in Oklahoma City and the media claims this is a slap in the face of black people since June teenth is the day of the Emancipation Proclamation and furthermore a lot of black people were killed in Oklahoma City at some point on this date. Trump is not smart enough to know about history. The media is also criticizing Trump for planning to make his acceptance speech in Jacksonville FL in Aug 27 because this is the date which a black woman was strangled in Jacksonville. Just how many people would know that and just which date and location would be acceptable ? The demonstrations have caused people to bend over backwards the appease the black demands : Lady Antebellum is now Lady A, Disney changed music at their theme parks to celebrate a black queen in one of their movies, Nike has declared June teenth an employee holiday, the House Democrats are demanding that civil war Confederate statues be removed and they’ve held 8 minute kneeled silence sessions.
So where does all of this lead ? I think it leads to more of the same, only worse. Once the economy goes into a recession unsupported by Fed liquidity, all hell will break loose. When people who live paycheck to paycheck and have debt up to their eyeballs lose their jobs, their homes (which they over paid for), and their marriage, they will want to blame someone. And this will happen on the Democrats’ watch as Biden gets elected. Just how will they respond to mayhem, violence, riots, and destruction ? I suspect they will hand out a lot of free money and use the mayor of Seattle as a role model and do nothing. Which reminds me : I have a retired friend living on Social Security and a small pension who recently got a $1200 check from the IRS. His income was unaffected by the pandemic, but he got $1200 from the government anyway. Ain’t America great.
Powell's comments about the expected negative Q2 GDP really hit the markets. Now Powell will have to take some of that back. After all the GDP numbers can be whatever they want them to be. Doesn't Powell know that ? I long ago found that I was not very good at day trading and stopped day trading all together when I made $41K on a couple of hundred dollars because I knew I would never be able to repeat that and that I would lose it all if I continued. I began investing in PM mining shares which were much cheaper than options and they had no expiration. I just look at the big trends, buy PM shares on significant pullbacks, and wait for the global demise/collapse to continue. I sleep very well at night knowing that I control none of what's happening and all I can do is react to it.
US$ decline in progress -
My comment : Doug Noland is essentially saying the same thing. As an aside : Condor Resources (CNRIF) is creeping higher (Disclosure : I own 900K shares of CNRIF).
"US Living Standards Are About To Be Squeezed As Never Before" - Yale Economist Warns Of Dollar Crash : https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-living-standards-are-about-be-squeezed-never-yale-economist-warns-dollar-crash
Roach opens with an ominous warning.
The era of the US dollar’s ‘exorbitant privilege’ as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end.”
Roach asserts that “US living standards are about to be squeezed as never before,” and warns “a crash in the dollar could well be in the offing.”
Like Peter, Roach says the problem started long before the pandemic. He traces it back to a “profound shortfall in domestic US savings.” With no savings at home, the US has leaned on foreigners’ willingness to loan them money.
Lacking in domestic saving, and wanting to invest and grow, the US has taken great advantage of the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency and drawn heavily on surplus savings from abroad to square the circle. But not without a price. In order to attract foreign capital, the US has run a deficit in its current account — which is the broadest measure of trade because it includes investment — every year since 1982.”
Roach argues that the rapidly expanding US government budget deficits in the wake of the pandemic are stretching things to the breaking point. Even with a higher level of fear-driven personal savings, it is being outstripped by federal spending. In April, the budget deficit was a full 50% larger than the level of personal savings. According to Roach, that’s bad news for the greenback.
The coming collapse in saving points to a sharp widening of the current-account deficit, likely taking it well beyond the prior record of -6.3% of GDP that it reached in late 2005. Reserve currency or not, the dollar will not be spared under these circumstances. The key question is what will spark the decline?”
Roach believes “America’s sharply diminished global leadership” will exacerbate the dollar’s descent.
As the economic crisis starts to stabilize, hopefully later this year or in early 2021, that realization should hit home just as domestic saving plunges. The dollar could easily test its July 2011 lows, weakening by as much as 35% in broad trade-weighted, inflation-adjusted terms.”
Roach says the decline of the dollar will have three major implications.
First, it will be inflationary. He even raises the specter of stagflation, saying the “tough combination of weak economic growth and rising inflation” could create havoc in the financial markets.
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In a recent interview with Mark Dice, Peter was even more emphatic about this threat. “We’re going to have a lot of unemployed people who are going to be paying a lot more money for basic necessities. So, this is going to be stagflation, only the stagnation part is really depression and the inflation can even potentially be hyperinflation.”
Second, Roach said the US trade deficit will likely soar even higher, “effectively taxing beleaguered US consumers.”
And finally, Roach asks a key question: “In the face of Washington’s poorly timed wish for financial decoupling from China, who will fund the saving deficit of a nation that has finally lost its exorbitant privilege?”
Like Covid-19 and racial turmoil, the fall of the almighty dollar will cast global economic leadership of a saving-short U.S. economy in a very harsh light. Exorbitant privilege needs to be earned, not taken for granted.”
As Peter said in a tweet, he’s not the only one who thinks the US dollar will crash.
Get rid of yours while you still can. Buy #gold or invested to good value, dividend-paying foreign stocks before the bottom drops out of the dollar and you can no longer afford to.”
re: economy doing a lot better than the rest of us thought. -
My comment : Or perhaps the economic numbers are being played with to make it appear so. In the end, this market will succumb to the speculative excess and the higher it goes, the worse the consequences. The Fed is going to get the markets back in bubble mode (the NASDAQ is already at an all time high). I expect this will take time to play out. Also a Biden election will not be good news for the markets. Biden was asked in one of the debates what his first act would be if he were elected President. He said "Beat Trump". That's his whole message. Unfortunately we have to choose between two idiots for President.
re: Juniors, look at Condor Resources (CNRIF)
Yep, I'm betting large on silver. I currently hold 500K shares of Impact Silver (ISVLF), 12.5K of First Majestic Silver (AG), and 7.5K Silver Crest (SILV).
wrt Gold and Silver, I focus on one thing : Sovereign Debt
Here's something to ponder regarding projected US debt :
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
National debt is currently $25.5 Trillion and climbing. I'm expecting $28 Trillion by end of this fiscal year and $40 Trillion by 2026. And at some point this will mean higher UST bond yields which will mean higher debt. Got Gold ?
re: Trump -
I think Narcissistic best describes Trump. Other adjectives are mendacious, ego-maniac, and paranoid. Trump thinks he knows more than anyone else which is really a sign of not being wise (ie of being stupid). The problem we are facing is choosing between two very poor candidates for president. The national debt is going to explode higher as the spending without limit continues. May God have mercy on our souls. Also keep hold gold and silver.
There is a day of reckoning. I'm holding gold and PM mining shares. The Feds balance sheet is expected to reach $30Trillion by 2030, the national debt is projected to reach $30Trillion by end of 2021 and $40Trillion by 2026. $1Trillion is nothing anymore.
The FED is omnipotent ? -
March 26 – Bloomberg (Christopher Condon, Steve Matthews, Matthew Boesler, and Rich Miller): “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will maintain its muscular efforts to support the flow of credit in the U.S. economy as Americans hunker down from the coronavirus pandemic. ‘We will keep doing that aggressively and forthrightly, as we have been,’ Powell said… in a Fed chief’s first-ever interview on NBC’s ‘Today’ show. ‘When it comes to this lending we’re not going to run out of ammunition. That doesn’t happen.’”
John Mauldin Report : https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/postcards-from-the-frontline
Excerpts:
.” I’ve said that before the decade ends, the Fed balance sheet will be $20 trillion and probably approach $30 trillion
Between reduced tax revenues and increased spending, I now expect this year’s deficit will be at least $4 trillion. I will bet you a dollar to 40 doughnuts that we will see at least another $1 trillion emergency spending bill to be spent in the third quarter.
We could have 2020 and 2021 deficits of a combined $6+ trillion. Add off-budget spending and we should see $30 trillion total national debt by the end of 2021. I naïvely projected total national debt to be $39 trillion by 2030. See, I keep telling you I’m an optimist. We will be in that $40 trillion range somewhere around 2026–27.
News (including gold vs toilet paper) -
March 23 – Financial Times (Henry Sanderson): “Traders have reported a growing global shortage of gold bars, as the coronavirus outbreak both disrupts supply and stokes demand, with one business comparing the frenzied buying of the yellow metal with the consumer rush for toilet roll. Retail investors in Europe and the US have bought up gold and silver bars and coins over the past two weeks in an effort to protect their money from the collapse in global stock prices and many currencies. But Europe’s largest gold refineries have struggled to keep up because of the region’s widening shutdown.”
March 26 – Bloomberg (Emily Barrett, Ruth Carson and Greg Ritchie): “In a matter of weeks, bond investors have seen some of their firmest market convictions swept away in a massive confluence of government stimulus and central bank intervention. Now, they’re being forced to rework their strategies for a new era. Core tenets such as what constitutes a safe asset, the value of bonds as a portfolio hedge, and expectations for returns over the next decade are all being reconsidered as governments and central banks strive to avert a global depression. Underlying much of the uncertainty is the risk that trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus could create an eventual inflation shock that will trigger losses for bondholders. ‘I’ve never, ever, ever seen anything like this before,’ said Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors… ‘You have enormous buyers of debt meeting massive coordinated fiscal stimulus by governments across the globe. For bond investors, you’re caught between a rock and a hard place.’”
March 23 – Financial Times (Michael Mackenzie): “The vast and currently dysfunctional markets for US Treasuries, mortgages and corporate credit now have the ultimate buyer of last resort — the Federal Reserve. Ever since the big stock market crash of 1987, investors have grown to depend on the US central bank coming to the aid of financial markets when they hit the skids. Now the central bank is well and truly ‘all in’, announcing a slew of new initiatives on Monday… Until now, the Fed implied, the system has been in no shape to withstand an escalating pandemic that has the US economy facing the biggest hit to growth since the 1930s. Having failed to ease nerves over the past week with an expansion of its quantitative easing programme, the Fed has upped the ante to Buzz Lightyear territory. ‘QE infinity,’ in the form of unlimited buying of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities, is just one aspect of the new approach.”
Federal Reserve’sFinancial Cure Risks Being Worse Than Disease
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-27/federal-reserve-s-financial-cure-risks-being-worse-than-disease
Federal Reserve’sFinancial Cure Risks Being Worse Than Disease - Bloomberg
In just these past few weeks, the Fed has cut rates by 150 basis points to near zero and run through its entire 2008 crisis handbook. That wasn’t enough to calm markets, though — so the ...
www.bloomberg.com
Excerpts:
When the Fed was rightly alarmed by the current dysfunction in the fixed-income markets, they felt they needed to act. This was the correct thought. But, to getthe authority to stabilize these “private” markets, central bankers needed the Treasury to agree to nationalize (own) them so they could provide the funds to do it.
In effect, the Fed is giving the Treasury access to its printing press. This means that, in the extreme, the administration would be free to use its control, not the Fed’s control, of these SPVs to instruct the Fed to print more money so it could buy securities and hand out loans in an effort to ramp financial markets higher going into the election. Why stop there? Should Trump win re-election, he could try to use these SPVs to get those 10,000 Dow Jones points he feels the Fed has denied everyone.
"Unprecedented" Global Policy Easing Has Failed To Curtail Credit Carnage : https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unprecedented-global-monetary-policy-easing-failed-curtail-credit-carnage
My Comment : I do not see US Treasuries as a safe haven due to the ballooning national debt. In fact, I expect rates to rise in the recession due to the ever increasing debt. Rising rates in a recession would be very bad news.
Excerpt:
Finally, we note that policymakers' acceleration toward yield curve control, UBI, MMT, and direct industrial intervention (utterly unprecedented inflationary and demand-driven measures in a supply shock) are ultimately, as Daniel Lacalle noted previously, not only a mistake, but they are the recipe for stagflation and guarantees a multi-year negative impact generated by rising debt, weakening productivity, rising inflation in non-replicable goods while deflation creeps into official headlines, and economic stagnation.
All of which may explain why the sovereign credit risk of the USA is starting to rise...
I think Gold is being pulled in two directions : The economic collapse is pulling gold lower in search of liquidity and the multi-trillion dollar bailout is supportive of gold. I've bought quite a few PM mining shares this past week and will continue to add as prices go lower. Things could very well get a lot worse before they get better. The number of US infections needs to peak before there's hope that things can turn around. I think there are too many holes in dike for the Fed to prevent a major financial crisis. Something big should have already broken... it's just a matter of time. And the fiscal stimulus will be multiple trillions of dollars. The recovery will be a U recovery given that so many people will a lot of unpaid bills and that will take a long time to rectify. Housing prices have yet to take a big hit, but I expect they will eventually fall by 50%.
I would look at bank safe deposit boxes.
Gold is the only thing to own after Fed cuts rates to zero - analysts : https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-15/Gold-is-the-only-thing-to-own-after-Fed-cuts-rates-to-zero-analysts.html
Excerpt:
Although gold prices are off their opening highs, analysts said that it remains the one safe-haven.
“I think the only thing you can own right now is gold,” said Adam Button, managing director at Forexlive.com.
“The deficits are doing to be outrageous,” he added. “During the financial crisis, the government had to bail out the banks, but now because of the impact of the virus, they are going to have to bail out everyone.”
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that he also expects gold prices to push higher; however, he added that the volatility is going to incredible in the next few days.
“Everything is just so fluid. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold prices up $80 Monday morning. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if prices were unchanged on the day or slightly negative,” he said.
Analysts note that gold continues struggling as crashing equity markets are creating a liquidity crisis for investors. Investors are forced to liquid assets like gold to meet margin calls.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, before the Federal Reserve’s emergency announcement, Steven Dunn, head of ETFs at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said that he could see gold prices moving between $1,525 and $1,575 in the current environment of massive volatility.
However, he added that when the dust settles, gold will be the asset to own.
“Central banks are going to continue to lower interest rates and step up their quantitative easing measures,” he said. “Gold will bounce back once investors see all this money being printed. The debt situation is only going to get worse and that will depreciate fiat currencies.”
Streible added that the futures market doesn’t reflect the full sentiment in the marketplace. He added that rising premiums and growing demand in the physical market shows how strong the fear sentiment is.
re: Fed Panic -
The only thing left is massive QE and I don't think that will prevent a financial crisis. The Fed and other CBs are being overwhelmed beyond their capacity to keep things under control. Gold and silver are finally responding as they should. We do live in interesting times.
Something is going to break soon. The EU banks (Deutsche Bank in particular) are under pressure and Italy is locked down which is really hurting their economy. Banking crisis anyone ?
Deep recession looms for Italy, but worst is yet to come says professor in lockdown from Milan : https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-13/Deep-recession-looms-for-Italy-but-worst-is-yet-to-come-says-professor-in-lockdown-from-Milan.html