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Really well the intent is for it to open at the Dec contact price on Friday which is currently 3.09...Then trickle back down. Get it!
Nice job, I bought more at 10.20.....
Would love to see DGAZ back @ 24.50 or lower....Load the boat! Still holding ugaz...
Yup 2.90 looks good. Im scaling in U started 10.35...NG may bounce before 2.90....
Sold D @ 25.65/.66 from 24.55
Started buying U slowly into report. Sell on the pop then buy D again!
GLTA
Lol - Not conflicted Im short in DGAZ at 24.55. Looking to sell tomorrow near 25.50 then re-think this puppy. I think that Wednesday they open NG toward the DEC contract price and run it up as much as possible. Possibly into Thursday however I don't think it get to 3.03/3.05. Then the bottom drops out! back to <2.80.... Now the issue is do they pop NG in NOV or sideways to down action?
NG will be at a pinnacle soon break out point. I bet she breaks downward. Warm weather is coming after this cold front. The Dec weather models are for warmer weather. Winter will be late this year. No red suit for Santa this year.
GLTU
Here's another thought. If I was buying nat gas which one is cheaper for me to purchase until Thursday!
Nov 17 2.966
Dec 17 3.131
November correct. thinking NOV pricing comes up and DEC down narrowing contango a bit!
MHO
Im betting NG comes down with help from contnago. DGAZ 27.50 to 28.50. However contango could change before Thursday morning. There will be some contango need to time your entry in DGAZ.
Last day to play Nov contracts is the 11/26/17. They can take NG up until the 26th then move it back the 27 and 28th...
No one really knows thats where the charts come in. DGAZ anything under 24 start nibbling slowly DGAZ could go down to 22.50/23.
MHO
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?&page=optqte&sym=NGX17&name=Natural%20Gas
I see, Looking for DGAZ low to load the boat next few days!
Enjoy the Contango play!
Natural gas has a significant structural problem, because US fracking companies have built up so much in the way of oversupply that every time we get close to the $3 handle, they are willing to flood the market with supply as it’s an opportunity to dump off some of the massive oversupply that they are holding onto, and I think that will continue to be the way going forward, and I don’t foresee a situation where we can break out and above that level for any significant amount of time presently.
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-forecast-week-october-23-2017-technical-analysis-445280
Nice job CC, But I think the bulk of the covering occurred after we hit NG 2.77 UGAZ 9.60...What ever was covered from Wednesday forward will show up in next week COT report!
Nice job!
Over the past six years, November contract (as a prompt month contract) has been cheaper than it is today only once – back in 2015 (see first row in the table above). The average futures price over four storage weeks in October 2015 was $2.443 per MMBtu. However, there were good reasons for depressed prices at that time. First of all, international weather models were on El Nino watch and as you probably know, El Nino is usually associated with warmer winters. Secondly, supply was very strong – just under 81.50 bcf/d – which at that time represented an all-time record. Indeed, large speculators were already net short in October (-152,000 contracts in NYMEX and ICE) as they anticipated market balance to remain loose and for prices to continue to decline. Thirdly, storage level was above the five-year average (+4.52%) and the surplus was expanding. In fact, average storage flows were +93 bcf, which at that time were some of the largest injections in history.
This year, however, the situation is very different. First of all, notice that the vast majority of cells in the column for the Year 2017 are quite greenish. Indeed, only supply is depressingly red (82.36 bcf/d). However, these strong supply figures fail to place a significant dent in the market balance and it remains relatively bullish compared to history. Unlike in 2015, speculators are net long by a great degree, anticipating a cold winter. Storage is expected to remain below the five-year average while forecast average flows are the most bullish on record (so far). Most remarkably, however, is that despite the fact that 2017 prices are higher than 2015 prices, the NG/coal spread is still lower, providing a lot of stimulus for natural gas consumption in the Electric Power sector. Finally, international numerical weather prediction models are on the La Nina watch, meaning that the upcoming winter is likely to be cold.
At the very minimum, this historical study clearly illustrates that this year, the natural gas market fundamentals for November contract are more bullish than they were in 2015 and therefore it is unreasonable to expect that price can drop below $2.800, let alone below $2.500 per MMBtu. Quite frankly, the price has probably already dropped too much. At this point in time, it seems that traders are focusing on the “apparent” short term, still refusing to price in the “probable” long term.
Thanks Herb...
Thinking they drive NG up to 3.10/3.16 with cold weather scare tactics before taking it back down. If you look at the local NTC weather. There is no frost until December!
NG could open up big Monday! Im in cash will catch the retrace with DGAZ.. Hoping to catch some of the leg up in UGAZ.
GLTU
Dont look good right now. But there is always tomorrow! Dodgers have a good team and nasty closer! Hope we get to series should be a good one!
Thinking they run NG up into contango next week. 3.0 plus ez..
Yankees are going to kick some ASS-tros tonight....
No one knows. They could start implementing Contango as soon as Monday into Expiration. Or Thursday report which happens to be Expiration. Or after Thursday....Friday....
Im playing the chart.
Sold my 1100 shares in scalping account for 10.60
Im praying that UGAZ dips under 10 on Monday NG dip....I will load everything in UGAZ for a run to 11/11.25. Then get the heck out real quick. Load DGAZ around 4.25/4.75..
Wishful thinking! Maybe!
GLTU
Yup stuck in the middle with NG i say! Im in cash except for 1100 U shares in scalping account im still holding