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He has to ante up something
OK ANOTHER PROPOSAL FOR YOU:
Instead of you having to set up shop on the Ihub basket weaving board, you can never call Aria a pig or POS again. Deal?
YAH YAH!!! Come on baby, come on. Just a lil more!!! YAH YAH!!!! Come on!
I wish I knew how to type a horse whip sound. Anyone have any ideas?
Nah, I like the crotchety old guy. Plus, he makes up for his relentless negativity with some kick ass DD.
Hey, I hope you didn't bet your kids 529 on that Exel short. Not one of your finer calls my man.
I say before the end of 2011. These people (potential suitors) are not stupid. They know that the results at ASH are going to be good. Aria is going to need cash if they are going to become "a stand alone oncology company". 113 trial is going to suck up their free cash. How many dilutions can the Harv do?
Events to help Aria make it through this crappy overall market summer (in sequential order imo):
1- 113 trial initiation
2- Rida NDA
3- Pona ex-US partner
1 and 2 are possibly interchangeable.
In true Aria form, watch this POS go down .50 on a day when the S/P is up 10 points. How was that one BTH? That was my tribute to you. ;)
I am not as bearish on the overall market as some. My feeling is we are in a soft batch of the recovery. The high commodity prices was like a wet blanket on growth (both job and gdp). I believe the summer will be rocky and we will be ok by the fall. Regardless, unless you are planning to move to the sidelines, you need someplace to get a return on your money. Hence my belief that Aria is as good a place as any. Unless there is a massive sell-off in the general market, I think we will be higher by the end of the year. How much, who knows? Just higher, IMO.
If you are trading in a retirement account, then knock your socks off. But I'd much rather hold for a year and let the story develop. The day to day trading on this company will drive you friggin crazy.
Rida is basically in the bag. Possibly 12 or so months to Pona approval. 113 story could be the biggest of them all (see the BV discussion on 113 today). All long term holds. You do the math.
GL
I asked this on the Ariad board. Will 113 have any chance against Crizotinib in the front line?
Will 113 have any chance against Criz in the front line?
I've been married so long that that difficult phrase now just rolls right off my tongue.
The Pfe machine is going to get a monster head start with Crizotinib. At this pace, 113 is going to have to 10x better (as the Harv has claimed) to catch up. If they could get the friggin trial started already, this company will be in everyone's cross hairs.
Not necessarily; the enterprise value of $350M+ remains bloated, IMO. The stock has been heavily pumped in the past few months, not only by posters on iHub, but also by one of NEOP’s non-executive directors. Insiders are now selling.
I don't follow the company or the space at all, but from my quick reading it seems that FDA approval is likely but that commercial success is still quite unclear.
I am pretty sure that you responded to the SA short piece, am I correct? I happen to agree with you. I am looking for the OBJECTIVE BEAR side. It's been discussed here before, and many do not agree with you (and me).
Thanks, Joe
He might not have but apparently someone did. Are you in agreement that the trial is flawed?
How about now? You nervous nellies still down on the stock?
As expected, first sell-side reiteration, JP Morgan maintains overweight and $10. Says Rida approval likely
S/P down 14. Whole bio sector selling off post Asco. Pps is hanging in there. The again, there is 48 minutes left to the day.
I think we will see some sell-sider roaches come out of the woodwork tomorrow.
PGS,
Incy's pipeline is certainly stronger and more advanced than Ariad's (and the market cap is over 2x Ariad's). My feeling is that on percentage increase, Ariad has a better chance till December mainly b/c I think many assume Rux approval might be currently baked in the cake.
Incy has pulled back more than I realized, so I may have to re-think my position. May be time to buy some Incy as well.
BTW, you were trying to see if I was talking out of my ass re: Incy weren't you?
I propose that we name the .85 HR the "dew point". What do you think?
OB
My two cents, gun to my head INCY or ARIA till December, I'm going with Ariad (I know that's a shocker to you BV guys lol).
Rida is pretty much in the bag. Pona is looking better everyday. And with the great results shown by Crizotinib, 113 should start generating some further interest.
Let's see where we are in December.
One last comment:
My biggest and best gainers have come on the heals of some absolutely horrific trading. Most recently Amrn. That was trading like crap after a big run up.
The timing sucks no doubt. I knew the employment numbers would slow down once commodities started taking off. But I froze like a deer in the headlights.
We have had worse pullbacks and it has always caught a bid. I had no intention on buying anymore Ariad stock since it already was too big a position already. But I sold some stuff in the last 3 days to clear out room if it dumped prior to the Rida data on Monday. This has been a common theme in the Bio sector for a while.
The way the Harv has been talking I just hope the data is perceived as good enough for an approval. Then we should be fine.
I think a company that is going to generate earnings for the first time in that time frame should perform significantly better than the S and P. Especially one with significant impending cash infusions and a potential blockbuster one year away from approval. Don't you?
Let me clue in some of you newbies to this board. BTH has been saying this EXACT same thing all the way since $2.50. The sky is falling act is hardly new. Stop worrying about the day to day price action and look at the company for what it is. We will trend significantly higher in the next 12 months.
That's my story and I am sticking with it.
Bell, I bought some of those Jan $5 calls today and convinced a buddy to jump in as well. I paid $3.60 for them, a little to early on the trigger.
I like my chances, especially 12 months out. This too shall pass.
I may lose the $7.25-$9.60 battle, but I think I will win the war.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I bought more down here today as well.
What news is out?
Yeh good luck getting a meaningful conversation going on the Cris board. Those poor bastards over at BV, double the BTH! YIKES!!!
And if it can breach $9.60, look out BTH! LOL
At the Leerink conference, I think Berger mentioned the OS data as the feel good data everyone would be looking for. Seems to me he expected it to be good in the follow up.
I guess you must have missed the part where I said that I thought the Rida data is going to be good enough for approval. I am not in the camp that believes the Rida approval is baked in the cake. If the data is good, I think the pps should see double digits fairly soon. Let's see the data.
FWIW, I bought another 10k today. 50 day and the RSI are both in-line where I have done very well in the past. I think we get good enough Rida data. Let's see.
It's not any different but that doesn't make it right either.
I get that not everyone is a believer in Lymphoseek, but calling the company worthless and putting a 1 year target of .25????? I don't think even this knucklehead expected the pps to dive to $4.50's today. Good for him, let's see how this plays out.
I disagree with the other poster who thought SA Neop article was well written. IMO, this was a one sided hatchet job intended to drive the pps down. His analysis of the Lymphoseek pricing and current stock valuation was the only part that I can't call complete garbage. Other than that, it was hardly a fair assessment. We won't have to wait long to see who is right.
What a business, he shorts the stock then gets to write the hatchet job that gives him his chance to cover.
If the OS data is perceived as good enough to gain approval, I would imagine we will see a nice pop. However, Ariad traditionally pulls back immediately after. So if there is a "trade" here, I would imagine it would be then.
Any thoughts from the board on the usual post Asco sector sell-off? All of my oncology bio's have had a nice run. I guess there should be some profit taking after the presentations.
It seems so obvious that I am a skeptic. I would like to keep at least half of my position for another year or so. WTF, it's been a 14 years since I started following this company, so why jump ship now!
No problem pal. I learned the hard way that my emotions and investing don't make a great couple. The fact of the matter is that if Rida was such a fantastic drug, the Harv would not have sold it to Mrk in the first place. It was kinda like that movie The Good Son.
Aria just needs the results to be good enough for an NDA/approval. I think we are close, even if we crawl over the finish line. The fact that there is no other option for the people suffering will help get the drug through to market, IMO.
As previously stated, let's hope for a little better HR number for the presentation at Asco. That should do it. Then Rida will become the sidebar that I have been saying for 2 years. Then we can concentrate on the real deal (and hopefully 113 if they can move their ass already). Good thing I own Pfe too!
I wouldn't put too much value in the AH selling tonight. These aren't great results, but consistent for Rida and I think it is still getting an NDA. Not much has changed, imo. Let's see the Asco presentation, maybe get that .85 Dew talks about.
Some people here are a little on edge and need to chill the eff out!
BTW, I think those 6k shares sold tonight might be qutrader's (lol). He manged to tell us twice that he was going to sell tomorrow and that he thought the price would drop significantly. Good luck pal. I own Aria for Pona, not Rida and that drug isn't going to underwhelm anyone.
Rida reminds me of a drug Aria sold to Mrk so they can develop Pona.
"fwiw, i think ponatinib holds a great deal of promise and upside for the company. just not so sure how much more legroom the company stock has in the next six months considering where it came from and its current market cap."
Pardon me BTH, but didn't you make that very same calculation with Exel?
Btw, it's the Aria board, what do you two expect? Not the place if you are looking for a meaningful debate.
That's what I have been thinking lately as well Yo. Where am I going to get a decent return on my money in the next 2 years? A portion of my Aria holding's will be left in my portfolio for a year or two.