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My thinking is that with the slate of national retailers, it's conceivable that they would be ordering significantly more than 150k Racing Dreams units, and with the help of Best Buy, Sprint and maybe a little help from NASCAR, we'll get 150k bought. Ryan posted yesterday some extremely pathetic films that sold a million units, and I'm trying to keep it conservative here by only estimating that an award winning, critically acclaimed film will only sell 15% of these horrible films.
Something to Think About
Per the latest PR regarding Racing Dreams:
That's one funny quote. I like how TDGI has a nice base built into it. We've had a few setbacks that I contend really aren't that big in the end. What I really like is the heavy buying that's occurring in the .02s when we get there. Shows you where people place minimum value on this stock.
I believe the business deals are still a go. We've learned EP holds things close to the vest. I wouldn't be surprised if/when we get blindsided with this. This I believe is still very much alive. Many of us will be very surprised.
Here is a repost of Speckulater's May 12 post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=50083287
Apparently, books are very profitable, from the 1/6/10 PR:
"Once a new book covers its initial releasing costs, the margins to Hannover House can be substantial," said Parkinson. "On a high-volume title like 'Made in the U.S.A.' the gross profit margin can exceed sixty percent".
Presales of Made in the U.S.A. are good:
Hannover House will more than double its output of new release book titles in 2010, said company CEO Eric Parkinson. Encouraged by strong presales of the company's upcoming book release, "Made in the U.S.A." by best-selling author Barr McClellan, Hannover will accelerate the acquisition and release of other high-profile titles.
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Target-Division-Expands- style='background-color:yellow;'>Book-and-Film-Acquisitions-1098037.htm
Part 1, Book Publishing Truman Press:
Last night I started digging a little bit into Hannover/Truman Press's book division. Saw this in their filings and it caught my eye.
In respect of the generally higher profit-margins available to Target-Hannover from the release of books (as compared with margins realized from the release of videos), the Company expects to license the publishing rights to four additional book properties for release in 2010, and plans to announce each title acquisition individually.
Royalties due to book authors under publishing-industry standards are accrued at much lower levels than royalties due to film and video rights licensors for movies and television properties.
Additionally, with the emergence of electronic publication channels (such as Amazon’s “Kindle” and Barnes & Noble’s “Nook” formats), Hannover House can further improve profit margins by eliminating the costs of book printing and physical delivery of printed copies.
The book titles now under license by Hannover (or being pursued for license and release in 2010) for the most part are projects that could also be developed into feature length films. In recent years, book projects categorized as “movie tie-ins” have dominated the publishing industry’s best-sellers lists, and are currently represented by movie-book mutual hits such as “The Blind Side,” “The Lovely Bones”, “Twilight: New Moon” and other literary franchises such as “Harry Potter” and “Lord of the Rings.”
Welcome SnakeCorleone As Assistant Mod!
Snake, glad to have you aboard here. We all look forward to your great perspective on TDGI and adding value to the situation here.
TDGI is worthy of investment on its own merits. People will seek out the information about TDGI and rightly conclude it's a great company that is profitable, no dilution policy and will greatly appreciate.
Thanks for posting your conversation with Eric. It just reaffirms what many of us know here.
Overall, Not as Bad as Expected
With the "storm" that blew through here last night and all the negative nellies having their way, not bad to close down only 6%. To all the naysayers, it shows that there is a strong core of longs who really believe in what the company is doing. Incorporating all the negativity here, we still have a TON of positives to hang onto as shown today.
Today was a nice, reaffirming day in my book. I would much rather have closed green, but I'll take what we got and be happy with it. Tomorrow's a new day. T3000 news could be just around the corner!
Definitely not out of the question today. We may just end up there:)
Did you just see the 50K trade at .035? What was that all about. It's like all the order between here and there were bypassed. That was weird. Either that or the ask is really thin...
The person behind ETMM has been a thorn in our side for months. You would think they would be almost out of ammo at this point, right?
Haha, now cooler heads are prevailing. It's called seeing the forest for the trees...
That is a very good point:
They didn't and will not make the #'s they hoped for but the pps never reflected them anyway.
Despite what flaming arrows people are throwing, we are still trading under book value IMO. We haven't baked in any of the films we've rolled out and/or now walked away from. That's why there's buyers today...
You've got to take the good with the bad, that's for sure. For all the negatives that have floated around here, there are still plenty of positives to hang your hat on for sure!
The context of what my post was is that we as investors thought that any one of these movies could go ballistic and therefore in our minds upped the value they had. You have been a consistent detractor here, and for the time being you have kept expectations tempered. You make a good point, Eric and Fred did believe that those four films would make up a bulk of their revenue for this year. We in our minds took that to another level.
It's disappointing, but there are still plenty of things to be excited and interested in here. I can't imagine walking away from TDGI before a few things happen. One, audited financials. Two, T3000 negotiation results. Three, 2010 revenue results. Their core business is strong, and I have a feeling they'll be returning back to what made them profitable in short order now that they've passed up on HTYMP.
Your perspective is very narrow sighted. You are forgetting the rest of the picture here, and that is their core business. Their core business is already profitable, something you cannot deny. You can state all your opinions as fact, but at the end of the day they are only your opinion. Maybe there is often some pumping on this board as people are genuinely excited about this company. But to take joy at others misery is just the wrong path to take in life. I actually feel sorry for you that you come here to gloat over people's misfortune, especially when the story hasn't been written.
That is the bare minimum book value should be for TDGI if their library valuation comes in at what Eric and company reported I believe in filings earlier this year. That's nearly 50% below where we are today. Something to think about...
Something to Strongly Consider
As we have learned, Eric is holding things close to the vest. The detractors on this board are operating in a vacuum and assume they have all the facts. They don't. Neither do I. One thing I have learned is that Eric is tight lipped about many things. Who's to say what their core business is or isn't doing? I'm betting there are all sorts of things hanging out there we don't know.
Reality is we let Racing Dreams and Twelve and HTYMP hold more importance than they ever really should have. I'm sure Eric and Fred never had the expectations we placed on those films.
The thing is, you know they aren't diluting and won't be. How else can you lose here? It's a fair assumption to believe their legacy library has value, and that the value will be more than TDGI's current market cap.
It will go ballistic as there will be a buying frenzy...
Great point there. I think many here are short sighted and aren't looking at the long term picture, and that is that there is still intrinsic value in TDGI. I believe the audits will fully show that we have at minimum at .058 book value as we previously have heard, and more than likely will show more than that. Plus, once those audited financials hit we'll be fully transparent, something very few other pink sheet stocks can do.
While many of you are disappointed with the recent happenings, take it all in stride. I for one am not selling out, I too have a long term perspective in here. *Some* here would like you to think that it's over, finished, done for TDGI. Nothing could be further from the truth. If you are really a long, now is your test. Don't buy what folks are selling. They're doing it for a reason.
Fox has not publicly passed on the movie, so we have to assume they're still on board. As you know, many films of this caliber are passed through the box office in an effort to market them in the DVD/VOD market. I still think if it's a percentage based agreement, they'll still be on board. They may very well have a minimum performance clause, nobody knows. We'll all know soon enough though, won't we...
But Fox is distributing Twelve, and it's a long shot to think they won't make money on it. As I said to your first post, the story's not written yet. You may want to paint that picture for obvious reasons, but that doesn't change the facts. Twelve will not just vanish and not produce anymore revenue...
The producers wanted the money up front, HH had it in escrow. Eric didn't want to release the money up front and get left holding the bag. He made a wise but tough decision as the CEO. But you already knew that...
Welcome back, Rain. Knew if things didn't turn out you'd be back to say so. Don't forget, story's not written yet.
While that is true, at the same time don't forget their core business is profitable. As we have seen, Eric has a lot up his sleeve that none of us knew about. Why not think there's more? Eric will get the job done, just maybe not when we wanted him to. Don't count Eric out yet...
That is the silver lining in the cloud for now. I go back to when I invested in TDGI at the end of 2009, beginning of 2010. I didn't know there would be the possibility of having a major theatrical release in 2010. The way things developed, many of us here started really liking the films they selected at Sundance and took that and ran with it. All that did was take away from the essence of what TDGI is and why I invested in it. They were profitable last year with one theatrical release. I strongly suspect that will be profitable this year even without HTYMP and the flopping of Twelve and RD. The story isn't written yet. As Eric said, if the theatrical releases didn't work out, it's back to the core business. I for one am glad we don't have a $20+ million film that flopped. Anything that's happened to date is easily remedied. What's key for HH's future is those audited financials for transparency, and exploiting their existing library via YouTube, Google, Netflix and Fox. If they can snag T3000, well, that will be great.
I for one have said for months I'm in this for the long haul. There will be the HTYMPs that come and go. In any business there always will be. But what I want to see is transparency and profitability from their core business. If a major theatrical release hits big over the next year, I'll be very pleased. I still think we're undervalued even with the negatives. The audit will be pivotal.
Long and not selling...
Good one. Nice to see you back. I get you now:)
Right back at you. As I said, it's great to see you chime in here. You've added some great value over the months back in the day...
I'm okay with splitting hairs here as the essence of the cease and desist were removed/retracted/recanted. It reminds me of a famous quote:
"What does the word 'is' mean?"
May I inquire as to what that inconsistency may mean to you then? Is it putting off the inevitable to you? Is it playing hide the ball to you? I am just as frustrated as the next guy that we are having to wait, but I have no reason to think that anything other than the corporate developments of the past 8 months have hampered their ability to get the financials done. An audit is not a static process if you are having constant value adding events occur. If you're attempting to get current and you keep finalizing material events, what are the auditors supposed to do?
Many outlets just ran with the story as it hit the wires. The filing was subsequent to all the articles.
We now have a date in official print, September 9. No email, no phone call, it was filed. September 9 it is...
Cease & Desist Letter Retracted
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/TDGI/financials
BOARD AGENDA ITEM “C” – Discussion of “TERMINATOR 3000” and Pacificor Communications – In response to a TDGI / Hannover House press release on Thursday, August 13, 2010, Pacificor, LLC, through counsel Timothy Trager, issued to TDGI / Hannover House a “Cease and Desist” letter regarding the proposed animated feature film project, “Terminator 3000.” In response to this letter, Parkinson initiated a telephone call and a series of email communications with attorney Trager, to clarify the history of this project and the intention of TDGI / Hannover House to seek Pacificor’s approval and participation as the franchise rights holder and trademark proprietor. Through written email communication on Saturday, August 14, Trager withdrew demands listed in his letter of August 13, and provided assistance in setting up a formal discussion of the venture with Pacificor. Despite the change in tone and receptivity to the project, Parkinson made it clear to the Board that the company cannot proceed with the development or production of “Terminator 3000” without the express consent and license of Pacificor, and that there can be no guarantee that such approvals will be obtained. Regarding the project, which Parkinson began developing in 1992, a co-production and financing arrangement has been discussed with Red Bear Entertainment of Vancouver, B.C., Canada, which could provide the basis for the film’s financing. Closure of such a development, financing and production venture with Red Bear will require the prior license from Pacificor, which Parkinson shall immediately seek to obtain.
I agree that the animation rights have value to them. Case in point is it's these very rights which have led the franchise rights holder of Terminator to come to the table with HH. If there were no value, then they would blow Eric off. But in fact they've done just the opposite. They retracted their cease and desist letter and agreed to meet within 2-3 business days of issuing same. That tells me they're seeing value in those rights and are taking it very seriously. You bet those will be reflected in the audited financials if Eric conveyed them to HH.
Thanks for doing that. It's like we already know it, but reassuring to hear it. Sometimes the incessant selling can seem as if endless shares are being created when we know that's not the case.
Question, what are your thoughts on ascribing a multiple to HH once the audited financials are out and up to date - meaning current through Q2 2010? If book value is let's say around .058 where EP estimated, then should we be ascribed a multiple for transparency and any guidance that may be offered?
You're right. But suppose eric conveyed the rights at the inception of HH going public. That would be 2009. It wouldn't have been made public for obvious reasons. Agreed that without the latest developments, the book value will more than likely come in where the general consensus is. However, knowing what we know now, it would be narrowed minded to overlook the corporate revelations of 2010. Those financials will be forthcoming too:)
Since the audited financials will include the entire financial picture of TDGI and not just the library value, what would happen if EP has conveyed his Terminator animation rights to HH? Also, what's to say Fox hasn't already made a payment on their distribution rights for Twelve? What then becomes of the total value of HH if these were to occur? Maybe my first post inartfully conveyed what I was attempting to say. But any of these events could have a material impact on the book value of HH. That's the hope here, right?
Good to see you around here. Haven't seen you here since Rain left:) You're right, it's put up or shut up time. I've learned personally that audits are not static, they're dynamic. The moment anything significant changes, it's back to that point in the audit to recalculate.
I'm strongly guessing that why it's taken 9 months is there was a discrepancy between what H&T and Eric said, but a significant discrepancy to the upside. When you own the animation rights to the Terminator and a project materializes with such, and then you add on a relationship with Fox for distribution, things change value wise midstream.
I'm comfortable putting a timeline on Eric at this point for the audited financials. He has chosen to go public with a date for the first time in a filing. It will be his undoing if he misses it without merit and clear explanation.
But think about this, imagine if the talks with Pacificor go well, they announce an agreement as early as this week. I imagine the audited financials will be right behind that. I think the financials contain the value of this $70 million film. I think the Sept. 9 date is in case the negotiations drag on with Pacificor or fall apart and need to be restated.
No, no, no, no, no. This sucker's electrical. But I need a nuclear reaction to generate the 1.21 gigawatts of electricity I need.
Good ol' Doc. TDGI looking like it may go back to the future this month...