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well don't fall apart...give me d28.50. It's "bearish meeting line" is 29.08
yeah... kinda scary
need it to stay down until /ng opens...
otherwise the 4hr obv won't have a chance to climb into the yellow
before one of my drawing alerts sound
light premarket volume
another thought is wait for 4hr OBV...
verify: weak eom forecast
check spot
enter short for south target @2.715
my TOS /ngU7 chart share link http://tos.mx/ApAl1s
dip buying retail investors gotta want it...edit...
maybe tomorrow...
I have nothing to hang my hat on
but I thing spot will make a new low tide
I think /ng 2.715 is a good short target
I want a better entry than today's
I have a hard time doing it overnight without knowing where spot it is
maybe tonight... tomorrow night... not in a hurry
I want to know if we are trading in speculation
thanks be safe
Low volume: shorts positioning? lol idk
a recent post I said something to the effect...
but it really looks like short 2.797-2.80 with reckless abandon
if that quote/chart holds...
it's south
1min & 5min obv right in here
see what happens...
I have a hard time reading light volume :-/
is everyone on vacation... Where's the volume?
yep...like-it-or-not we are TradingSpotInTheDark The extended forecast...
has grown cooler each run
well I'm not shorting it from here ...
old saying:
unless it's "happening" in NY it's not happening
short~strength....
was eyeballing a short@ .815-.819 for a weak forecast...
doesn't look like I'll get a chance at'm now
Weather cooler before warm and it isn't that warm...smh
looking for that invisible bounce spot to unload my next short
See bottom of this post...
The forecast may have painted the picture too rosy... I really wanted the U10.10 entry.
But I would have closed it ext-hrs anyway due to non-performance...
not worth holding risk/reward
wouldn't want to wake up monday morning under 10
The 10th just happens to be a thursday
if it's gap up and run... it's probably short lived
but I kinda want to see how spot responds to the heat when it arrives.
this "gotta be in to win it" over the weekend thing sucks
a big portion of the 10-15% ugaz/dgaz swings are gone by the time I can trade monday
Turns trades into scalping again
would sure like to see lofty over spot again...
get back to shorting strength
I think a lot of this catch the falling knife slinky thing is to draw in more retailers
add hope, add hope... add again
I would have loved to had the opportunity to short +/- 3.06...
looks so far out of reach now
would seriously consider stabbing 2.94 now
the boards are getting bearish and expecting bearish things
would love to see it bounce
Here is a sticky number... 2.715
not sure if you saw it yet...TOS /NG Daily chart, ext-hrs toggled ON
contract expiration in feb was the 23rd...
3rd to the last trading day of the month
contango gap up on the 24th
next day down
3 day's after the contract expired in feb the new contract broke out @2.715 of its short lived downturn
put your eyeball on that 2/27/17 red candle @2.715
2.653 tweezers tips low... with the following break out candle... on a fresh contract
Just wondering what you thought of it.
backatya
also of note: there is not one green 4hr candle hammer
in that chart resembling the latest one printed...
... in shape or direction.
I just find it interesting to see a green upside down hammer.
... unlike all the other green hanging hammers
Spot$ down .02 @2.76...
https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-contracts?page=chart&symbol=NGY00
even this^ chart looks hardwired south @2.84
/ng last tick 2.776 ext
/ng is a falling knife on a slinky stab stab stab...
as it tries to base... if it can... consolidate?
safer trade still looks south
If this +/-10th forecast can't move the futures Monday morning
2.842 is tops for now
The hrs & min charts show every advancement still being dumped OBV
2.819 now looks like a tough nut to crack.
but it really looks like... short 2.797 with reckless abandon
BUT... that's hard to do with spot's recent low tide of 2.75
I would have to KNOW spot is collapsing to short with a target below CC's mark
Acknowledgement: I like how /ng revisited CC's mark 2.767 intraday and bounced.
That's a good mark... it may end up being upside resistance one day.
Daily open interest = 344,291 that is pretty freaking high...
highest it's been since May 2 2016... not on this 4hr chart
Cash is a hard trade to stay in... trying to avoid the scalp and find the swing
Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out... gLtrading
EDITcanceled 1/2 order for 560 bid@10.10 throwing up my hands...
I'm not chasing it
and I'm surely not shorting the coming heatwave forecast
I'm beside myself
I think profit taking was yesterday
shorts getting out of the way today... &heat speculation
I wouldn't be surprised to see 2.842 today
2.80 headwind to work out
left my 10.10 bid in the dust... pfft !@#$%^&*whatAcrockWhyDidn'tThisHappenYesterday
just b4 my bedtime...
currently 10:32 in wa.
/ng pierced and now toying with last reported spot$ 2.78
2.79 "a penny above" showed some interest
but OBV dumped it to pierce spot$ and is now toying with it
all the while acc/dist is eating it up
like it or not...
without futures responding to the coming heat...
the u^p trade has you trading spot blind
for instance
if spot drops to it's new recent low tide of 2.75 tomorrow
futures will more than likely join it
thinking 2.75 is the safest long entry for a gap up monday
but then again...
spot may hold right here... this is the buy
may even see 2.842 for a friday close...
but watch out... futures could flat ignore the forecast and gap down to 2.75 monday waiting for spot to respond to the heat
if I'm going for a hail mary gap up on monday.. hold long over the weekend...
then I'd like to start from a 2.75 reset tomorrow so I can close it @2.842
after all... we're trading spot in the dark on this one.
even spot will respond to the heat... but from where... when?
looking for the odds to favor a safe trade
g-night
why do I keep remembering that wrong. Thanks
might want to check that date...
ugaz/dgaz roll starts on the 10th trading day of the month
Roll starts Monday the 14th
casting candles aside... weather/current spot$/futures...
This is one of the toughest (go longs) ever
Monday is the 7th
heat does return futures will trade it
spot will follow
Spot$ up .01 @2.78 Momentum reset now stands @2.79 "penny over spot"
2.75 was it's recent low
gap up Monday mechanically seems possible as long as spot doesn't chop off to a new low tomorrow
and that's what gaz has been doing... have to be in it to win it.
That burden is falling on the weekend's shoulders.
Yuk
2.938/.94 looks like a doable target for this forecast if futures respond to it.
4hr Bbands cinched down tight
from what I understand the burn rate was huge but it came...
like you said... a little too late
bulge in inventory
I was wanting to trade this heat forecast up for a good relief bounce
and then short "over supplied" again
Cash is a tough trade to stay in...
but that's where I am
win lose or draw
I have too much of a need to know where my dog Spot is at the moment.
I can imagine him running over the hill a little at a time for 3 more days
and the front month could chase him staying .10-.20 above the whole way down
I don't doubt a gap up or down tomorrow
this is No-Man's-Land
... not with a ten foot pole
I'm looking for better odds
... a clearer picture
MAYBE SOME EXCESSIVE VOLUME would help me make up my mind
... looking for a substantial swing (safe) "if there is such a thing" entry point
My how the forecast changed since my last post...
that cool 16th vaporized
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017080306&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=73.33333587646484
...and gets hotter through the 19th
16th
sitting on a 1/2 order @U10.27 didn't fill... in the first 5mins of the report
thinking about canceling it now
wanted to see it spike down, pick me up and right back up...
like we've seen many times
I don't want my order to fill on the way down
looked it up yes you're right...was looking...edit...
for bear fuel short covering rules
and it is 2 times for confirmation
dgaz signal is stay long but warns of a bearish meeting line
https://www.americanbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=dGAZ
I'm having a hard time taking any position trying to figure out what it will take to cause the shorts to cover
thanks
http://www.candlesticker.com/Pattern.aspx?lang=en&Pattern=2207
The stop loss level is defined as the last high. Following the bearish signal, if prices go up instead of going down, and close or make two consecutive daily highs above the stop loss level, while no bullish pattern is detected, then the stop loss is triggered.
UK: Summer warmth to be a no show through August
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-summer-warmth-to-be-a-no-show-through-august/70002359
2017 US fall forecast: Warmth to linger in Northeast; Conditions ripe for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-us-fall-forecast-warmth-to-linger-in-northeast-conditions-ripe-for-tornado-outbreaks-from-texas-to-tennessee/70002317
Spot$ up .02 @2.77 a new low tide @2.75?
momentum reset 1 penny over spot$ = /ng 2.78
but since it will be a report day tomorrow...
initial reaction to a bearish inventory report could be a quick spike down
could still see ugaz 10.27 CC's mark 2.767
and then let the futures forecast take over
check spot, decide hold till friday
check spot, decide to hold over weekend
is spot/s new low tide in... or is it collapsing?
thinking out-loud
I just might put in a 1/2 order @ ugaz 10.27
eyeballing some d between here-&-2.842? .0~niner over spot
That was a very good call...Have a good day!
catch the falling knife on a slinky stabstabstab contest
edit: signs...was tired. Still tired...restless sleep...
wondering if I did the right thing
/ng searching for a place to base as spot$ current demand is low
my 3.06 call was based on spot not collapsing
During reset momentum swings I used to buy a penny over last spot
and decide if I'd hold once I have the current spot update
most of the time giving me time to bail... if wrong...
as in, spot fell again
This is still a falling knife
Yes /ng is currently printing over spot
but will spot fall again tomorrow
isn't it interesting the spot price is roughly CC's mark
if given the chance I'll buy a penny over spot or CC mark and wait to check spot again to decide if I'll hold... or not
eye on 1min volume
The problem is the immediate forecast/demand Spot$ falling
Sings of life are the futures willing to print above spot$ again
At some point futures will respond to the coming above avg temps forecast
shorts will bail
Spot has a new low tide or it's collapsing
Cautious