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Their is still hope in JDZ, The Sao Tome government remains optimistic about the possibility of developing an oil industry given the interest shown by several companies in taking Total’s place
Jan 08 32.93% 0.06 0.05 0.05 39,750 120,700
Jan 07 63.14% 0.05 0.05 0.05 330,846 524,021
Jan 06 9.44% 0.05 0.05 0.05 2,185 23,139
Jan 03 4.54% 0.05 0.05 0.05 5,150 113,376
Jan 02 20.03% 0.05 0.04 0.05 20,300 101,350
last 2 days huge shorting:
The MM clearly have shorted much more percentage wise on down days than days ERHC closed up. Bottom line is OTC MM can short and do. The are winning.
Like I said before we need more buyers. That wont happpen regularly on this crappy OTC exchange till investors react to good news of, profits (oil) or potential profits and outweigh the MM shorting management box game.
http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=erhe&action=view#.Us8VotJDuSq
We have a ton of good news, lots of activity but its going to take a long time to reap the benefits from East Africa. The market knows to develop these remote areas takes time. The market wants to see ERHC actually find oil, too many have been disappointed. What will help is, IF we get a VERY strong partner. They should release this information! Same old secretive approach weve been dealing with for over a decade.
A new deal with EEZ or JDZ would be nice. Realistically its going to take a while to process these assets, if there is oil. Bottom line there are more shorters than buyers over the last 48 hours. Need more buyers. At least we have a plan and hope. GLTAL
Show us Peter! Why are you keeping secrets about our farm out? Ridiculous.
Tryoty,
Is this correct? Are these your words?
"A carry through the first well is all I expect, and enough to get us through the JDZ 5 year "competitive advantage" tight hole clause... which expires in September."
The 2d might be far enough along by September (9 months)to report results, if were lucky. Very doubtful well be drilling, but that depends on the operators capabilities really. I did not know the tight hole clause expires this September 2014. Is this accurate?
King, as usual the devils in the details and words can be interpreted differently. For example: survey, expected to commence within this quarter. Commence means starting to hire someone, not necessarily start 2d operations.
also: "carry of ERHC’s proportionate obligations" and "other conditions" could be interpreted differently, just saying.
Shorters were on vacation but they are back.
http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=erhe&action=view#.Us2_bNJDuSq
ERHC notes that the farm-out partner will fund future exploration costs in proportion with their stake.
This means more capital needed for sure.
ERHC is expected to award the contract for the seismic study by March and the winning firm should begin work by the end of this year.
This statement means NO drilling till at least mid 2015, another reason we are at 5 cents folks we have a long wait. Add to that lack of infrastructure and services in a undeveloped politically unstable area, Im guessing 2016 at best. 2017 to production if were lucky. Just being realistic. Hope all the GEO research gets us back to 50 cents anyway.
The SEC fillings say that part of the exploration will involve drilling one well to at least 3,000 meters depth which should cost not less than $30 million or Sh2.6 billion and before that acquire and interpret data from the seismic study.
One well at 45% for 30 million is 13,500,000 mill. approx to fund...wheres the money coming from?
EHRC estimates that seismic work will cost at least $10 million (Sh871 million). EHRC has a 90 per cent interest in the block and the government has the other 10 per cent but this could increase to 20 per cent should the wells prove to be commercially viable as per the production sharing agreement signed in June 2012.
Oil companies to scale up drilling activity in 2014
By KENNEDY SENELWA Special Correspondent
Posted Saturday, January 4 2014 at 14:02
IN SUMMARY
Africa Oil Corporation and joint venture partner Marathon Oil Corporation are now set to start drilling on Sala prospect, another well to be completed by the end of the first quarter of this year.
Africa Oil and Tullow Oil Plc are set this year to jointly drill Ngamia West, Ekunyuk, Etom and Ekosowan wells in South Lokichar basin
Oil majors exploring in Kenya are expected to increase their drilling activity this year with at least five new wells planned for the quarter to March.
Africa Oil Corporation is temporarily leaving the Bahasi after failing to encounter commercial natural gas in the exploration area based in northern Kenya with the hope of testing it in future.
The Canadian firm and joint venture partner Marathon Oil Corporation are now set to start drilling on Sala prospect, another well to be completed by the end of the first quarter of this year.
The average cost of sinking a well for crude oil and natural gas onshore in Kenya is $25 million. Africa Oil and other partners started drilling of the Bahasi well in Kenya and Tutule in Ethiopia in September 2013.
“While we are disappointed Bahasi and Tutule wells did not find commercial hydrocarbons, we look forward to aggressively pursuing other exploration opportunities,” said Africa Oil’s chief executive officer Keith Hill.
He said the firm has confidence in unlocking other productive areas, although exploration and development studies in South Lokichar basin in northwestern Kenya where oil has been discovered will be their focus.
Africa Oil and Marathon each own 50 per cent share of area 9 north of Isiolo town in Kenya. Tullow Oil Plc has a 50 per cent stake Africa Oil, 30 per cent and Marathon 20 per cent equity in the South Omo acreage in Ethiopia.
Data obtained from Bahasi and Tutule wells will be analysed to determine future exploration in the locality. The OGEC rig is being moved to Chew Bahir basin to drill Shimela prospect in the eastern part of South Omo area as Tutule well was dry.
Africa Oil and Tullow Oil Plc are set this year to jointly drill Ngamia West, Ekunyuk, Etom and Ekosowan wells in South Lokichar basin. Africa Oil recently raised $450 million to fund exploration activities until 2015.
This comes as Bowleven Plc and ERHC Energy with other companies are undertaking various work programmes in compliance with production sharing contracts for exploration signed with the Ministry of Energy.
Bowleven has completed airborne survey of onshore area 11B in northwestern Kenya.
http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Oil-companies-to-scale-up-drilling-activity-in-2014/-/2560/2134142/-/104c3o9z/-/index.html
Excellent block ownership map.
http://nationaloil.co.ke/site/3.php?id=2
Get to know the region:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lokichogio
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/m/?articleID=2000101125&story_title=Leaders-demand-extra-security-at-South-Sudan-border-point
The unfolding civil war in South Sudan complicates things for Kenya. If the situation does not stabilise, Kenya should expect a massive inflow of refugees.
http://mobile.nation.co.ke/blogs/Kenya-s-security-headache-in-the-coming-year-/-/1949942/2127888/-/format/xhtml/-/wpaiuw/-/index.html
Oil-cowboy, Every geologist have detailed in depth knowledge of their projects and they can be right or wrong, that is my point. Thuo found someone willing to listen to his theory. He's no different than any other (hydrocarbon) geologist. They all have the same dreams. Geologist are the best salesmen on Earth.
Trust me, Ive been involved in oil field investment good and bad for 30 years. All geologist are totally convinced the dry holes are wet... lol
Its too early to get excited about pure conjecture and assorted Satellite maps. Just hope we get the opportunity to find out what is there (11a) and not stop looking after only a few wells if they are dry.
It is you that needs to be aware of this and use common sense. This is why we are at 4 cents. Its a pure wildcat play with unproven management in an unproven, unimproved, remote, unstable, African block. It is not I that needs to wake up my friend.
Please DONT send me anymore mail about this. This is ridiculous.
" But that’s on me to police and I’ll work harder at it. "
Anyway, BELOW are Dan's EXACT words.
Me (my slip was Nigerian should have read Dutch Slang...ha) same result though.
" Can you elaborate on basin is "larger extent", """Have a larger extent" is vague and unclear as to what he was referring to!!! I know this was a quote but, its confusing to some online.
I appreciate your feedback regarding clarity in how we describe things. As you indicated, ERHC’s small office is truly international and sometimes quotes aren’t as clear as they should be. The example you gave is from Mr. van Mechelen, who is Dutch, and I have to admit that I don’t usually tinker with the technical information he provides because some of it is beyond me. But that’s on me to police and I’ll work harder at it.
Sincerely,
Daniel Keeney, APR
Hope that ends this discussion.
He told me he could have, as I already stated.
No they are current exploring.
Dr. Thuo has theories at this point.
Because He told me he would do a better job on that in the future. Its hard he said, to edit geologist and usually doesn't but should have in this case. I beleive I shared that in my prior post.
IMO All these maps are imcomplete; somewhat guesses and vague. The news from ERHC about the basin encroaching into our block further than previously expected is good, maybe. Maps show very few fractures in our 11a block.
ERHC HAS TO CONVINCE THE PARTNER'S GEOLOGIST THERE IS OIL SOMEWHERE IN THE BLOCK AND GUYS IVE GOT TO SAY ITS A "ROLL OF THE DICE" WHEN YOU STUDY ALL THE DATA.
THE NEW FTG WILL POINT TO WHERE TO DO REAL, HYDROCARBON SEISMIC TESTING AND THAT WILL DETERMINE ERHC'S SHORT TERM FATE.
Is there one geologist here online that can professionally comment on current maps? Answer is NO, the QUALITY data doesnt exist ...yet.
I would say thats thier erroneous interpretation of slang nigeria talk, another reason Dan K. should proof read these releases prior to publicly releasing.
Excellent can you overlay the proven 5 wells by Tullow?
If that map is anywhere near correct ERHC is going to 20 bucks a share! Thanks for the overlay, I saw it 3 months ago but had forgot the work you put into it. They better hurry up and build infrastructure out there, they are going to need it! Amazing how the Tullow finds match up too.
Cowboy, If you read my recent post youll discover understanding of the blob areas according to geological studies. It a water shed -recharge zone old river basin for now. With NO obvious oil to-date.
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/publications/PDFs/BC13181.PDF
PAGE 17 SHOWS HI CONFLICT AREAS
Apparently the only thing that can survive this climate are goats and sheep.
The blob on the map is a old dried up river channel. Thus underground water.
The Lotikipi Lake eventually dried out completely, but the Litokipi Basin Paleo-Lake is permanently replenished underground by discharging rivers and hosts vast quantities of fresh groundwater over a surface of 4,100 km2 as shown by seismic Line TVK-4 (below).
Alain's analysisThis dry pan of harsh land offers an significant potential of an underground active aquifer which is active today, still exfiltrating groundwater from Kenya towards the Nile Basin in the north, offering new possibilities of groundwater in South Sudan.
Seismic Line TVK-4 showing deep aquifers of the Anam-Natira and Tarash-Nakalale in the Lotikipi Basin extending over 75 km from East to West and 3 km deep .
http://martinplaut.wordpress.com/2013/07/13/discovering-the-ancient-sources-of-the-nile/
Future drilling and fossil finds will provide additional stratigraphic attributes to these seismically defined Formations in the Lotikipi basin. However, at this juncture, the section cannot be assigned a definite stratigraphic age, but occurring in similar tectonic and stratigraphic setup, it is suspected that the Anam-Natira Formation might be homotaxial to the Sharaf and Abu Gabra Formations (Neocomian or Albian-Aptian in age, [10] of southern Sudan. Although future drilling alone would enable assigning additional lithological attributes to these two subdivisions, in the absence of any other criteria to assign a stratigraphic age, it might help to consider Tarach-Nakalale Formation as coeval to the Kordofan Group of southern Sudan (early Tertiary in age, [10].
Intracratonic basins of these types are poor prospects for the hydrocarbon exploration, but they contain adequate potential reservoir rocks, which can trap whatever hydrocarbons that were generated by the chiefly continental organic matter buried with the sediments. There are a few examples of hydrocarbon generating intracratonic basins of this type. Speedy sedimentation along with basins subsidence prevent the oxidation of organic matter and preserves it for possible hydrocarbons generation. Thus, the examined salient structural features of source-reservoir-seal associations revealed favourable prognostic targets for future petroleum exploration in the northwest Kenya rift basins.
Paleogeographic Position
As earlier discussed, the paleogeographic position of this region (what is presently northern Kenya) was much to the south of the Equator during the Triassic-Jurassic up to Cretaceous time. Therefore luxuriant vegetation on land, swampy grounds, humid climate and good rainfall were some of the then prevailing environmental conditions. With such a source, the organic matter that got buried could only generate the Type I or Type III kerogen whose initial product could be waxy crude or gas [21, 22].
http://www.epgeology.com/articles/kenya-rift-basin.html
Well, its possible, please make it so. I think the map is highlighted that way because of the aquifer satellite results.... "for study" is a broad term. The black blob has ANAM- NATIRA and TARACH-NAKLALE FORMATIONS WRITTEN ON THEM. SEEMS TO ME 85 % OF THIS BLOB IS ON OUR NEIGHBORS BLOCK TO THE EAST. Although some do seem to coincide with some other findings from Tullow, dont they?
Either way we wait for for they FTG, and if its great you'll see drillers running to our block as fast as they can. Bottom line is though, its a vast wasteland that is mostly unexplored. Oilmen can overcome anything.
The tools we are using these days are getting impressive and may change the future for us all. Lets hope the FTG has amazing results and "shows" some very exciting anomalies!
September 30, 2013, the Company received $2,731,558 under the Kenya farm-out agreement pending the approval by the Government of Kenya. Management believes that its current cash position should be sufficient to support the Company's general and administrative expenses for more than 12 months.
the finalization of the farm-out will result in a carry of ERHC's proportionate obligations on the Kenya Block 11A PSC
All of these maps arent showing what theve found already in the fly over. There arent any maps or data available that are up to date or the quality we will get with the fly over. Other than finding the water aquifer and that data there isnt any complete picture that was intended to show oil and gas structures. Thats why were doing the FTG. All the decades old data reveals what is badly needed is more study and data, the FTG will finally provide that.
The map someone refers to is a Global Bouguer Gravity report. Not the same as an FTG.
http://www.frogtech.com.au/products/global-bouguer-gravity-grid
Then we have to battle lack of infrastructure, roads, supplies, security and transportation issues, just to name a few.
The new technology and computers used in the FTG are superior, the basin does come into our block farther than previously thought, know that.
Thats what he meant to say. ( larger extent ) Anyway, this new data is key in building momentum and excitement with partners etc... just hope its good enough to get "someone" to open up their wallet.
http://erhc.com/news/positive-results-from-airborne-ftg-survey-of-kenya-block-11a/
Its my understanding that the large black blob is the new found water aquifer. It is possible Oil lies below it deeper than other areas of Kenya.
Your very talented Umbra, I enjoyed that.
Excellent history lesson of our block and surrounding areas.
http://gchandler.ehclients.com/index.php/graham/earth_explorer2/exploring_the_east_african_rift_system/
Geosoft Oasis montaj and the geophysical modules employed enabled Long and Njuguna to integrate all the disparate data. “We brought together a variety of data sources for comparative interpretation prior to the modeling stage,” relates Long. “We had available the reconnaissance airborne gravity survey, a previously published 1:50,000 geological map, 2D time seismic lines, the 1980s gravity interpretation, satellite gravity, and of course the previous literature studies undertaken by primarily Morley and latterly Dr. Tiercelin and Dr. Peter Thuo at NOCK.” He says the deep seismic surveys conducted in the late ‘80s and through to the ‘90s helped to constrain deep crustal structure down to the Moho interface. “This structure is required to be modeled, when we are working with Bouguer gravity,” Long says.
The software facilitated the integration. “Geosoft provides processing QC tools which we could use to understand the gravity measurements we were working with,” says Long. He outlines their process. “Once we proceeded to the modeling exercise, we were able to re-calculate 3D terrain corrections and apply them to produce a Bouguer response to model the 2D seismic line. We used GM-SYS Profile to model the gravity in 2D, in tandem with the seismic profile across Lokitipi, and imported depth source solutions for density contrasts derived from Euler and Werner methods. We used shadow cursor linking to honor geological contacts and surrounding topography in the profile model and displayed in Oasis montaj on regional plan maps.”
The final model, as Long reports in a conference paper, consists of five distinct lithological units defined by previous identification of seismic facies and geological interpretation, and suggests that the inter-bedded sediments and basalts unit could be up to 2 km thick, with the potential reservoirs in situ below them. “As well, the basin thickness could be revised down following our modeling exercise,” he says. “The maximum depth to Precambrian basement is approximately 4 km.”
So, any chance of commercial-scale reservoirs? “Difficult question,” says Tiercelin. “If the Lapur Sandstone (or a stratigraphic equivalent) is present in the Lotikipi (and Gatome) basins, this can be of course a good reservoir in terms of quality and size.” But, he agrees, it will be deep: “at more than 3-4 km,” he says.
photos / maps http://earthexplorer.com/2011-08/Exploring_the_East_African_Rift_System.asp
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskussion/1167139-151-160/africa-oil-corp-world-class-east-africa-oil-exploration
http://mobile.nation.co.ke/counties/Leaders-set-conditions-for-oil-firms/-/1950480/2024046/-/format/xhtml/-/i6aulbz/-/index.html
Just how much oil is underneath Turkana is not yet clear. Africa Oil Limited, a Canadian-listed company, made the first of the most recent plays in the region. ‘It’s a bit daunting,’ Keith Hill, the stocky American geologist who heads the company, told me as we sat in his glass-walled corner office at the new Nairobi headquarters in the well-heeled suburb of Westlands. ‘This tertiary rift basin [there] is pretty much the size of the North Sea, and there’s only three wells drilled. In the North Sea, there’s 2,400 exploration wells drilled. It really is early days in this play, but it took 58 wells to find the first commercial oil discovery in the North Sea. Here, we found it in the third well we drilled.’
A third-party reserve estimate by the petroleum consultancy Gaffney Cline and Associates puts the total prospect at 28 billion barrels in East Africa as a whole. Nigeria, sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest oil producer, has around 38 billion barrels in proven reserves. ‘This is huge,’ Hill said. ‘A billion here, a billion there; pretty soon, you’re talking real money.’
That there is ‘real money’ to be made in East African oil is not in doubt. The find in Turkana is just one of a pattern of discoveries across the region, starting in 2006 when Tullow Oil, now one of Africa Oil’s main partners in exploring northern Kenya, struck a commercial-scale deposit in the Lake Albert Rift in Uganda. That find has been mired in regulatory wrangling and is yet to see any production, but it revived interest in a region that had been off the radar for decades. ‘East Africa was a pariah,’ Hill told me. ‘If you talked about East Africa, you could barely get the meetings [with investors]. Now every conference I go to, East Africa is being talked about as the hottest exploration place in the world.’
http://aeon.co/magazine/nature-and-cosmos/peter-guest-turkana-oil/
Don't forget this good news as well... Nov 21
ERHC Energy and the National Petroleum Agency of Sao Tome and Principe (ANP-STP) are conducting legal reviews of the draft PSCs for EEZ Blocks 4 and 11, the significant terms of which have been finalized by the parties.
According to the company its efforts, along with ANP-STP’s, to generate interest in the EEZ as a whole has led to increased interest from international firms in Blocks 4 and 11. ERHC is in discussions with several firms about possible partnerships following the signing of the PSCs in Blocks 4 and 11.
“We are very happy that after many years of work, there is now palpable momentum building toward exploration of the Zone — both in our blocks and in neighboring blocks,” said company CEO Peter Ntephe.
In the Nigeria/STP Joint Development Zone (JDZ), the Joint Development Authority, ERHC and other contracting parties are continuing to review possible next steps. One of the possible steps being considered is to bring in exploration companies to spread risk and to reinterpret existing data with a fresh perspective and possibly a fresh exploration strategy.
“Despite the unexpected outcomes of the initial drilling campaign, we remain enthusiastic about the JDZ and believe that taking a new mindset to the exploration effort would be a very positive development for all involved,” said Ntephe.
Three weeks ago ERHC said they would have results in a few weeks from the FTG Flyover. Whether they release it or not is anyone's guess. If they announce great news of possible billions of barrels we probably go up a few cents and that's for a few days if the past is any indicator of the future.
Drilling is next year so buyers have plenty of time. ERHC needs to sell the sizzle!
WE need institutional buyers and brokers coming in to offset.
We need a BUY OUT!
Another theoretical scenario; ARABS controlling CEPSA see a opportunity to short ERHC to keep ERHC thus buy us for cheap. Same scenario we were concerned about years ago. Welcome to the OTC dungeon.
Krom this is just the beginning of the oil field.....
Their going to drill up to 30 more wells onshore Kenya in the next 5 years, possibly.
Africa-focused Tullow Oil said earlier this month it struck oil at the Agete-1 well in the Tertiary Basin in northern Kenya, its fifth consecutive discovery since it started drilling in the country.
Tullow shut down work for two weeks in the block where the discovery was made and in another block in the same area, when residents of the poverty-stricken northern Turkana community marched on its operations to demand jobs and other benefits.
“We have a lot of work in engaging people to understand that an oil discovery is not an instant solution to everything,” Hassan-Athmani said.
Operations resumed on Nov. 8 after a deal was reached with local leaders.
Commercial production of 100,000-120,000 bpd is likely to begin in 2018 with output ramping up to 180,000-200,000 bpd by 2022, Hassan-Athmani said.
About 10 new exploration wells will be drilled in Kenya every year over the coming three to five years, with about 40 percent of the exploration work offshore, she said.g
ERHC Energy Inc. submitted its completed Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of Block BDS 2008 in Chad to the government.
http://africanewscloud.com/tag/exploration-manager/
ERHC estimates the resource potential in the two focus areas to be as much as 250 million boe.
14 billion in JDZ 500mill, Chad 500+, Kenya 500+mill, EEZ 500 mill x 2
SO we have 16 billion barrels of oil under our control and no one cares to find it or buy the 4 cent stock?>????
Very possible Bufflalo, This could be a good explaination. As I mentioned estate liquidations etc.. I know there are aging recipients of 30 million shares approximatley. Think back 15 years.
OPIC & USAID in energy play
United States Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) has issued a call for bids for a contract to organize an international conference in Kenya that will focus on investment in energy in Africa.
http://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/alert-ion/2013/12/11/opic-usaid-in-energy-play,107999015-ART
http://www.opic.gov/blog/impact-investing/opic-to-play-key-role-in-president-obamas-power-africa-initiative
???
The Dutchmen meant to say: extends into our block to a larger extent than expected. According to Dan K. Thank you, Dan
Us shareholders are ready for some "respect" and hope the new partner gives us that!
Despite what is being claimed on the chatboard, Mr. Van Mechelen NEVER stated that the rift basin in our block is “large.” He merely said it extends into our block to a larger extent than expected.
This is a good thing. What would be the alternative? That is NOT extend into our block as much as expected? I suppose these anonymous online “experts” would think that is fantastic?
We won’t comment on rumors or speculation, and we will not disclose the name of the proposed farm-in partner unless and until we secure consent from the government of Kenya as doing so would violate the terms of the agreement. I can say that it is a well known and respected international company involved in all facets of oil and gas both upstream and downstream.
I appreciate your feedback regarding clarity in how we describe things. As you indicated, ERHC’s small office is truly "international" and sometimes quotes aren’t as clear as they should be. The example you gave is from Mr. van Mechelen, who is Dutch, and I have to admit that I don’t usually tinker with the technical information he provides because some of it is beyond me. But that’s on me to police and I’ll work harder at it.