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Meixatech's 3/15/08 post re: IDM's valuation: $100M (rev est.) x 5= $500M market cap or about $19.50 per share. This states the issue better than my last post.
<<Cybittermn:
Valuation, at this point, is more guesswork than science.
The EMEA decision will likely decide the fate of this company. If approval occurs we could easily see $20 a share. With rejection, share price would be slashed in half....or worse.
If approved (the FDA would likely follow suit) $100 million dollars a year in annual revenues is quite viable. Using a reasonable six-times-sales multiple would give IDMI a $600 million dollar market cap. That would equate to a pps of $24.
Another thing to remember about Junovan is that there is a potential indication for use in cancers that metastasize in the lung and liver. This company would catapulted into the big leagues with additional approvals.
Cybear:
$100,000,000 per year in revenues given success is paltry. Junovan/Mepact will draw several times that in just a couple of years. The only question mark will be production capacity.
Cybittermn:
Cybear, what are your estimates for Junovan revenues?
With no competition, Junovan's market penetration should be 50%. With $100,000 per treated case, this would equal $100,000,000 dollars in annual revenues.
I noticed in some of your earlier posts, in your computations, you figured revenues for two years of treatment. I have not reviewed any data or statements from IDMI that would suggest more than one year of treatment would be required.
Cybear:
< < what are your estimates for Junovan revenues? >>
Let's assume you are correct for the US, $100,000,000 per year. The EU would double that, and the rest of the world (Japan, Australia, etc.) would make that triple. And I still think that is conservative.
Further, the nature of the drug is such that it will likely be used to support other chemo treatments. That brings us to $1b, which even I would consider high.
< < I have not reviewed any data or statements from IDMI that would suggest more than one year of treatment would be required. >>
Nothing that direct. I base that more on the general impression about how long chemo treatments last. Keep in mind that the primary use for Junovan will be to reduce chemo dosages to reduce toxicity.>>
Questions on IDM's market cap potential. Comments requested.
Valuing biotech business assumes the business is worth about five times its expected sales three years from now (hypothetically).
IDMI @
$3.30 had a market cap of $82.83M, thus:
$4.95: $124.24M;
$6.30: $165.64M;
$7.95: $207M;
$9.60: $248.5M;
$11.25: $289.9M
$12.90: $331.3M and
$14.55: $372.7M
IF EMEA approval of L-MTP-PE, what is the expected sales per year?
Hypothetical:
L-MTP-PE potential sales per year of $25M ($2.08M per month)
$25M x 5 = $125M (mkt cap)= $4.95 per share.
Valuing IDM's pipeline?
Some reference points:
DNDN @$5.94 has mkt cap of $553M;
CEGE @$2.97: $255M;
AGEN @$1.84: $121M.
Article in Barron's 8/18/08 "Browsing in the Biotech Aisle" by Lawrence Strauss, discusses five possible takeover candidates, ONXX, VRTX, AMLN, UTHR and ALXN.
IDM is not mentioned.
Also discusses BMY's bid for IMCL and Roche's bid for DNA.
KITD Q2-2008 Institutional Ownership (source: Nasdaq.com)
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 115
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $32
Institutional Ownership: 1.1%
Price (as of 8/14/2008) 0.28
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 5 1,270,494
New Positions: 2 1,112,200
Increased Positions: 3 1,204,134
Decreased Positions: 1 280,000
Holders With Activity: 4 1,484,134
Sold Out Positions: 1 280,000
Owner Name; Date; Shares Held; Change (Shares); % Change; Shares) Value ($1000).
VAN WAGONER CAPITAL ... 9/30/2007 920,000 920,000 New $258
BALDWIN BROTHERS INC... 6/30/2008 192,200 192,200 New $54
WITTER WILLIAM D INC 6/30/2008 116,554 91,934 373.41% $33
OVERBROOK MANAGEMENT... 6/30/2008 41,740 0 0.00% $12
WILLIAM HARRIS INVES... 6/30/2008 0 (280,000) Sold Out $0
That's it, 1.1% of the float in institutional hands, yikes. Well at least there is room for the institutional big boys to buy KITD, which did not happen this week after earnings.
Comments?
Thx for note JT. IDMI @ $3.23 8-15-08, w/ about $3.88 and $4.95 resistance targets;
support at: $3.00, $2.69; $2.42; $2.28 and $2.00.
Palo Alto Investors as of end of Q2-2008, 6/30/08, still holds about 7.2M+ shares of IDMI, about a third of the float. Health care is their largest investment holding and biotech is their "thing," with many MD's on their team near Stanford University.
Still room to rumble here, IMHO.
SNCR Q2-2008 Institutional Ownership (partial listing): (source: Nasdaq.com)
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 31
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $415
Institutional Ownership: 64.1%
Price (as of 8/13/2008) 13.22
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 129 20,103,450
New Positions: 23 2,164,419
Increased Positions: 56 9,189,357
Decreased Positions: 64 10,601,382
Holders With Activity: 120 19,790,739
Sold Out Positions: 39 5,251,766
Owner Name
Select a name below for more information. Date Shares Held Change
(Shares) % Change
(Shares) Value
($1000)
FMR LLC 6/30/2008 3,478,016 1,657,956 91.09% $45,979
ADAGE CAPITAL PARTNE... 6/30/2008 2,246,371 1,570,900 232.56% $29,697
WELLS FARGO & CO/MN 6/30/2008 1,988,805 1,305,105 190.89% $26,292
ALGER FRED MANAGEMEN... 6/30/2008 1,387,064 (194,792) (12.31%) $18,337
INDEPENDENCE INVESTM... 6/30/2008 1,015,540 1,015,540 New $13,425
JMP ASSET MANAGEMENT... 6/30/2008 1,000,000 806,826 417.67% $13,220
J P MORGAN CHASE & C... 6/30/2008 870,925 (18,075) (2.03%) $11,514
BROWN INVESTMENT ADV... 6/30/2008 743,454 253,459 51.73% $9,828
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVE... 6/30/2008 693,960 119,369 20.77% $9,174
VANGUARD GROUP INC 6/30/2008 677,414 8,806 1.32% $8,955
STATE STREET CORP 6/30/2008 426,397 179,795 72.91% $5,637
LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD... 6/30/2008 342,848 (156,756) (31.38%) $4,532
BANK OF NEW YORK MEL... 6/30/2008 306,139 224,369 274.39% $4,000
MAZAMA CAPITAL MANAG... 6/30/2008 299,850 299,850 New $3,964
CAISSE DE DEPOT ET P... 6/30/2008 278,160 183,160 192.80% $3,677
MONT PELERIN CAPITAL... 6/30/2008 264,697 (115,296) (30.34%) $3,499
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ 6/30/2008 234,905 182,229 345.94% $3,105
TRADITION CAPITAL MA... 6/30/2008 226,395 226,395 New $2,993
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EM... 6/30/2008 223,600 60,000 36.67% $2,956
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 6/30/2008 222,768 (25,962) (10.44%) $2,945
GLOBEFLEX CAPITAL L ... 6/30/2008 211,954 3,300 1.58% $2,802
MORGAN STANLEY 3/31/2008 185,238 (87,031) (31.97%) $2,449
NEW YORK STATE COMMO... 3/31/2008 180,200 175,200 >1,000.00% $2,382
UBS OCONNOR LLC 6/30/2008 168,885 (81,115) (32.45%) $2,233
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV... 6/30/2008 158,227 (500) (0.32%) $2,092
OPPENHEIMER FUNDS IN... 3/31/2008 157,580 (474,449) (75.07%) $2,083
TIAA CREF INVESTMENT... 6/30/2008 138,532 15,657 12.74% $1,831
CAMELOT MANAGEMENT C... 6/30/2008 136,400 73,900 118.24% $1,803
DELAWARE MANAGEMENT ... 6/30/2008 129,900 (664,700) (83.65%) $1,717
BOGLE INVESTMENT MAN... 3/31/2008 117,380 (33,000) (21.94%) $1,552
CAXTON ASSOCIATES LL... 6/30/2008 101,982 101,982 New $1,348
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP ... 6/30/2008 94,918 (372,613) (79.70%) $1,255
MASON STREET ADVISOR... 6/30/2008 80,000 (431,090) (84.35%) $1,058
NATIONWIDE FUND ADVI... 3/31/2008 75,280 22,980 43.94% $995
GALLEON MANAGEMENT L... 3/31/2008 75,050 75,050 New $992
PEAK6 INVESTMENTS, L... 6/30/2008 66,709 66,709 New $882
GSA CAPITAL PARTNERS... 3/31/2008 63,924 52,775 473.36% $845
BLACKTHORN INVESTMEN... 6/30/2008 60,000 60,000 New $793
HIGHBRIDGE CAPITAL M... 6/30/2008 59,788 59,788 New $790
ZEBRA CAPITAL MANAGE... 6/30/2008 57,469 57,469 New $760
BLACKROCK INVESTMENT... 6/30/2008 48,590 (7,910) (14.00%) $642
CREDIT SUISSE 3/31/2008 45,150 45,000 >1,000.00% $597
DEERE & CO 6/30/2008 41,745 14,742 54.59% $552
GRANAHAN INVESTMENT ... 6/30/2008 38,600 38,600 New $510
AMERICAN INTERNATION... 3/31/2008 37,904 (1,077) (2.76%) $501
yes tzm, some elements of this IDM drama at this point in time are puzzling, buy out projections, Walbert taking other CEO job. But in another way it could not be simpler, either approval or non-approval by EMEA. (Then FDA approval in 2009?- buy-out?)
At least Palo Alto held on to all of their shares in Q2-2008, in fact +50K! Perhaps P.A. "knows" something about IDM that we do not.
Thank you for all or your informative posts re: IDM and GLTU.
PALO ALTO INVESTORS,... 6/30/2008 7,422,409 50,000 0.68% $21,302M
IDM Pharma, Inc. NASDAQ-GM
Company Details
Total Shares Out Standing (millions): 25
Market Capitalization ($ millions): $72
Institutional Ownership: 35.4%
Price (as of 8/13/2008) 2.87
Ownership Analysis # Of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 23 8,921,675
New Positions: 2 279,841
Increased Positions: 8 522,675
Decreased Positions: 10 165,843
Holders With Activity: 18 688,518
Sold Out Positions: 8 163,477
Owner Name
Select a name below for more information. Date Shares Held Change
(Shares) % Change
(Shares) Value
($1000)
PALO ALTO INVESTORS,... 6/30/2008 7,422,409 50,000 0.68% $21,302
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLO... 6/30/2008 610,200 85,400 16.27% $1,751
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV... 6/30/2008 336,358 88,700 35.82% $965
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMEN... 3/31/2008 146,457 146,457 New $420
CREDIT AGRICOLE S A 6/30/2008 133,384 133,384 New $383
PRICE T ROWE ASSOCIA... 6/30/2008 93,836 0 0.00% $269
NORTHERN TRUST CORP 6/30/2008 75,843 0 0.00% $218
BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVE... 6/30/2008 43,286 0 0.00% $124
J P MORGAN CHASE & C... 6/30/2008 31,541 10,000 46.42% $9
BEAR STEARNS & CO IN... 3/31/2008 18,800 6,800 56.67% $54
CALIFORNIA PUBLIC EM... 6/30/2008 3,153 0 0.00% $9
UBS AG 6/30/2008 2,838 (1,366) (32.49%) $8
ROYAL BANK OF CANADA... 3/31/2008 2,078 1,934 >1,000.00% $6
NORTH STAR INVESTMEN... 6/30/2008 1,000 (1,000) (50.00%) $3
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ 6/30/2008 492 0 0.00% $1
FMR LLC 3/31/2008 0 (100) Sold Out $0
NEUBERGER BERMAN LLC 3/31/2008 0 (10,000) Sold Out $0
CREDIT SUISSE/ 6/30/2008 0 (12,900) Sold Out $0
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENT... 3/31/2008 0 (21,450) Sold Out $0
NORTHWESTERN INVESTM... 3/31/2008 0 (23,459) Sold Out $0
WEXFORD CAPITAL LLC 3/31/2008 0 (30,900) Sold Out $0
LEHMAN BROTHERS HOLD... 6/30/2008 0 (32,258) Sold Out $0
WILBANKS SMITH & THO... 6/30/2008 0 (32,410) Sold Out $0
Not all Q2-2008 information is updated yet.
P.S. Re: COR. Never been in it. I believe it was meixatech who discussed COR.
GLTU
Patco: To many unknown variables re: IDM. EMEA approval, non-approval or another delay in 2008? (cockroach theory- if it happened once, it could happen again). FDA decision in 2009? Possible sale of the company, if so when? CEO Walbert taking other CEO job at Horizon.
Your individual investing strategy for investing in IDM provides guidelines for actionable decisions. The tactics change as new information becomes available over time.
Valuing biotech: worth about five times its expected sales three to five years from now? Hard to do with IDM.
Some very informed posters have price projections: TZM, "teens" on EMEA approval (see #1171); surf, about $10; meixatch, $10-$20 (#1166), and cybear on Yahoo mb, $20.
For me, right now it is important that we stay near or over $3 going into fourth Q 2008. IF EMEA approval, hopefully we will see about a +150% move, to about $7.50.
IDMI @ $2.95 8-12-08, w/ about $3.25, $3.88 and $4.95 resistance targets;
support at:
$2.69; $2.42; $2.28 and $2.00.
IDM has made a run from about $1.80's.
Projection:
IF EMEA approval of L-MTP-PE we could see $5.00 to $7.00 range. (Comments?)
IF IDM is sold what will be the price premium?
IDMI's all time closing high was $9.27 on 4-30-07; (this was the speculative run-up to the FDA's approval of "Junovan," which was a disaster, due to previous CEO's rushing application to the FDA [some say b/c if filed by certain date, ex-CEO would have received stock options]).
High risk here, if no approval, <$1.00.
GLTA
aire: << I am a share holder and an employee of 30 years..>>
Thanks for your post! Glad to hear you are on board for this run.
Both of my parents worked for (the OLD) United, back at the dawn of the Jet Age. They met in Hawaii, were married there and I was born in Honolulu (Queens Hospital) in 1956. They split when I was two. My mother (and I) moved on but my father worked for United in management for 30+ years and retired in the early 1980's as the Vancouver, B.C. United station chief, (United was the only company he ever worked for after being in the CRAF in WWII).
Cheers and GLTU, Bow
Hi JT. IDMI @ $2.84 8-11-08, 300K vol. Broke $2.60 resistance today with:
about $3.00, $3.88 and $4.95 resistance targets;
support at:
$2.69; $2.42; $2.28 and $2.00.
IDM has made a run from about $1.80's.
EMEA end of September or October announcement re: approval of L-MTP-PE ("Junovan") in EU. As previously posted, many informed posters on I-Hub and Yahoo speculate that IDMI has a deal to be sold upon the EMEA announcement (current CEO Walbert has taken another CEO job at Horizon [private], with IDM's B of D approval (Walbert has over 500k shares and options [about $3.20] of IDM). Speculation that if IDM was going to manufacture and market L-MTP-PE in EU (ie. not be bought out), Walbert would have stayed on as CEO and if there was little chance of EU approval, he would have just resigned as CEO of IDM (which has not happened- yet).
Projection: IF EMEA approval of L-MTP-PE we could see $5.00 to $7.00 range. IF IDM is sold what will be the price premium?
IDMI's all time closing high was $9.27 on 4-30-07; (this was the speculative run-up to the FDA's approval of "Junovan," which was a disaster, due to previous CEO's rushing application to the FDA [some say b/c if filed by certain date, ex-CEO would have received stock options]).
High risk here, if no approval, <$1.00.
GLTA
Waiting on sidelines for retracement for possible entry point.
Price action simply amazing in the airlines the past month.
Synchronoss 2Q earnings cut in half vs. year ago- AP
Tuesday August 5, 7:47 pm ET
Synchronoss second quarter earnings cut in half due to drop-off in iPhone-related revenue
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Synchronoss Technologies Inc. reported that its second-quarter earnings were cut in half due to a loss of revenue from its deal with AT&T Inc. to help support the Apple Inc. iPhone.
ADVERTISEMENT
Shares in Synchronoss fell $1.35, or 11 percent, to $11 in after-hours trading after rising 18 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $12.35 in regular session dealings Tuesday.
Synchronoss, which provides on-demand transaction management software to communications companies, reported net income of $2.6 million, or 8 cents per share, for the three months ended June 30. That's down sharply from $5.4 million, or 16 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier.
Excluding one-time items, the Bridgewater, N.J., company reported earnings of $3.5 million, or 11 cents per share, for the latest quarter, down from $5.8 million, or 17 cents per share, a year earlier.
Revenue fell 22 percent to $24.3 million from $31.3 million a year earlier.
Wall Street on average had expected Synchronoss to report earnings of 9 cents per share on $24.6 million in revenue for the second quarter, according to a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial. Analyst estimates typically exclude one-time gains and charges.
Synchronoss Chief Executive Stephen Waldis said that despite the loss of i-Phone-related revenue from AT&T, which provides wireless services for the popular Internet-enabled phone, the company expects to expand its relationship with AT&T and with other service providers.
Ventelo Selects Callidus Software Suite for Norwegian Sales Performance Management
Wednesday July 30, 7:00 am ET
Leading Nordic Telecommunications Company to Standardize on Callidus Platform
SAN JOSE, CA--(MARKET WIRE)--Jul 30, 2008 -- Callidus Software Inc. (CALD - News), the leader in Sales Performance Management (SPM), today announced that Ventelo has selected the complete Callidus Software SPM Suite to manage sales performance and incentive compensation programs for all of its direct and indirect sales channels located in Norway. Following the recent merger of Ventelo and Bantele, Callidus Software will provide a single enterprise SPM platform for all sales channels across the entire group in Norway. Under the agreement, signed in the second quarter of 2008, Ventelo will use Callidus' TrueComp® Manager, TrueResolution®, TrueInformation® and Callidus TrueAnalytics™ software modules to automate commission processes to all sales channels and to provide critical sales analytics to all senior management from sales through to product management.
In challenging economic times and faced with unprecedented competition, companies are pursuing new ways to drive revenue and optimize profitability. Sales performance and pervasive performance management are the untapped levers to bring these strategies to life. Callidus' solutions help companies align corporate objectives with sales strategy. Together, they unlock a company's ability to combine sales and incentive compensation with key aspects of employee performance management.
Callidus' SPM software solutions deliver a high ROI in a very short period of time by allowing sales executives to make better incentive decisions, providing timely visibility into channel operations, and giving them the flexibility to rapidly deploy new sales and distribution strategies and tactics.
About Callidus Software®
Callidus Software (www.callidussoftware.com) (CALD - News) is the leading provider of on-premise and on-demand Sales Performance Management (SPM) solutions to global companies across a broad range of industries. Our software allows innovative enterprises of all sizes to strategically manage incentive compensation, set quota targets, administer producers, and align territories, resulting in improved sales and distribution performance. Over 1.8 million salespeople, brokers, and channel representatives have their sales performance managed by Callidus Software's products.
About Ventelo
Ventelo is an independent telecommunications operator delivering a complete range of services with Telephony, Mobile and Internet to enterprises and end users in the Nordic countries. For more information, visit Ventelo on the Internet: http://www.ventelo.no
IDMI @$2.19, 200k vol. on 7-29-08.
3/25/08 @$2.28 with resistance at:
$2.42;
$2.69;
$3.88 and
$4.95.
Support at around $2.00.
IMO we are seeing quite accumulation, possibly by some fund(s).
EMEA (EU) to announce either late September or October, hopefully, but delays have happened in the past, tanking this stock, but management says this time frame is accurate.
IMDI @$2.12, +$0.10, on day when DOW -200pts .7-28, 101K vol, quite accumulation.
Still low volume.
Remember this is an all or nothing stock on EMEA (Europe) approval, in Sept., Oct., or end of 2008.
Do your own DD. I am long IDM.
GLTA
IDMI @ $2.03. EMEA (EU) decision on Mepact (Junovan), is due by 4th Q-2008, perhaps September or October. Some quite accumulation of IDM shares have slowly ramped-up shares to $2.00 range from the $1.70's. Some pros look like they are slowly shaking the tree.
The "informed" posters on Yahoo and I-Hub mb's speculate that IDM has a deal in place to be sold (current CEO Walbert has taken another CEO job w/ IDM's BofD approval) if, IF, IDM gets approval from the EMEA in Europe. The important thing that Walbert did for IDM was have the COG do a 180 and say that "Junovan" was effective. This was huge for IDM and Palo Alto Investors grabbed about 30% of IDM's float after the COG changed their minds.
This is all or nothing for IDM. IMHO, if EMEA approval we could see $5 to $7 a share. Some posters have said buy-out price could x1.5 or x2.0 share price after 10 days from approval. But this is pure speculation.
If no EMEA approval, back to <$1.00. FDA approval might come in 2009, but the way things are looking IDM might have been bought out by then. But you never know.
Do your own DD.
I am long IDMI.
UAUA up 158%+ since 7-12-08, to about $9.38. Can we get some comments on this board?
Anyone think we will pull back?
NIce move today, 7-23, to $5.12, +$0.70, 15%, on 1.4M vol. Yes double bottom may be in JT.
Must have been sweet Surf. I have AMR up 100%+ and UAUA up 150%+ since 7-12-08, just 8 trading days!. Wow!!
CRB Commodity Index was down a large 8.32 to 554.11, appears to be topping out along with oil @$128.
Yes. Good trading in UAUA, LCC, NWA, CAL and other airlines.
Beware: key is for oil to stay <$131 and get to <$120 and stay there. Could be some bumps in the road along the way. Still volume in UAUA and LCC today shows the cat might be out of the bag and/or short covering in these.
GLTA
Nice trade Surf!
UAUA and LCC earnings Tuesday, 7-22-08. UAUA gained 50% last week.
As I posted before, IMHO, IF oil gets <$131 and then IF <$120, and stays there, the great bull market in oil may be over. I am just looking at the charts (see previous post) and the price action of oil. The market is going to do what it is going to do.
Item: Congress is investigating and may pass a bill re: "speculation" in the oil market. If passed, it could put downward pressure on oil prices. This could be huge for oil and the airlines.
Also, I think after the Olympics are over, at the end of August, we could see some cooling in the oil markets.
Caveat: Middle East flare-up, back to >$140++.
Apple abandons a requirement that iphones be activated in the store. Could that mean they go back to Sncr for activation? Short answer: probably not, but ... ??
from Eric Savitz's 7-10-08 SeekingAlpha blog:
Kainer "doesn't anticipate a reversal of the new (Apple) plan." "But he writes that 'neither do we dismiss the possibility' that SNCR could yet play a role here."
SNCR price target: $11.
"Now, I should note here that Kainer wrote all this in the context of a research note on Synchronoss Technologies (SNCR), which the first time around had a deal to provide activation services for AT&T for the phone. He thinks Apple and AT&T could have created a much faster process - and saved themselves over $10 per activation - by using SNCR’s services again. He doesn’t anticipate a reversal of the new plan, and in fact today cut his target price on SNCR shares to $11 from $16. But he writes that “neither do we dismiss the possibility” that SNCR could yet play a role here.
“We believe Synchronoss’ role in driving customer satisfaction by engineering and automating an elegant iPhone activation process will be irrefutable when comparing the 6/29/07 and 7/11/08 customer experiences," he concludes."
So I guess the answer is a big MAYBE. Time will tell.
GLTA
You could be right. I said IF oil gets <$131 and then IF <$120, and stays there, the great bull market in oil may be over. I am just looking at the price action of oil. The market is going to do what it is going to do.
Item: Congress is investigating and may pass a bill re: "speculation" in the oil market. If passed, it could put downward pressure on oil prices.
Also, I think after the Olympics are over, at the end of August, we could see some cooling in the oil markets.
Caveat: Middle East flare-up, back to >$140++.
Earnings 7-22-08, UAUA and LCC.
GLTU
BLUe, got ur message, no worries. Oil <$130, maybe <$120, MOMO AIR and airlines, UAUA + AMR up 50%+ last week. CAL + LUV in this weeks Barron's.
Following is re-post:
Oil <$120, maybe. Sound crazy right now, I know. But read on:
S&P's Energy chart (XLE) closed at $80.70 on 7-10-08 and has a bearish price objective of $69.00.
AMEX oil chart ($XOI) closed at 1,404, bearish PO $1270.
CRB Commodity Index ($CRB) closed at $448, MA(50) 435, (200)385.
Take a look at these charts at StockCharts.com and tell me what you see.
First oil needs go <$131.
If, if oil goes <$120, the bull market in oil MAY be over.
Way? How about a world wide slowdown/recession, in which oil consumption MAY slow down. What until the Olympics are over at the end of August.
Caveat: Middle East, e.g. Israel-Iran conflict- ALL BETS ARE OFF, oil will probably soar back to >$140++, which is what happened today, 7-12-08. Yes there is HIGH risk in projecting lower oil prices.
Do your own DD, GLTA
How to become a millionaire, start with a billion and invest in airline stocks.
Have a good weekend!
I agree. Still, I am worried one or two of the majors may have to go into bankruptcy at sometime in the future. Too much damage may already have done. Trading, as you are doing, is the way to go right now. I am not very good at it.
Like I said, the key is for oil to go <$120 and stay there. I would not be surprised to see a blip >$131-135 again, though.
GLTU
Oil <$131 7-17-08. Next stop <$120, when and if this happens, the great oil boom MAY be over. This would be terrific for the airlines.
GLTA
OIl <$131, next stop <$120, if and when, then the great oil boom may be over.
Wow, UAUA up 60%+ in last two days. Anyone making money?
How to become a millionaire, start with a billion and invest in airline stocks.
Having said that, today, 7-16-08, the airlines were on the move, big time, oil down.
Clue: 7-15 UAUA stock jumped about 10% on good volume while giving up some of the gains into the close.
As I said in another post, if oil can stay <$120, the GREAT bull market in oil MAY be over.
If so, the airlines should soar, but a lot of damage has already been done to the airline stocks. Some may go into bankruptcy.
It ran up the last time before earnings and then the bad news and it crashed. (from lb camera on Yahoo SNCR mb, 7-15-08).
My thoughts are still to be careful until
they have at least 3 solid quarters behind them before I personally would revisit the stock. We already know that there will be
very little if any revenue from the Iphone
that could have spilled over from the last quarter into this quarter. Now that AT&T and Apple are doing their own activations for the Iphone we can assume that Sncr no longer has any part of this deal. With all of that said I believe earnings will meet and guidance will remain the same for the year. I can't see them pulling any surprises out of their hats. Sprint still slow to ramp up, Time Warner will have Verizon to contend with in a few months as Verizon TV enters the NYC area shortly and will continue to expand throughout the country giving
Time Warner a run for it's money.
Sncr needs new contracts and some substantial revenue from Europe otherwise you will see this stock possibly stay in this trading range or dare I say trade several dollars lower.
Best to All that are still long
LB
Comparing the top US Legacy Carriers cash/debt (from Absolute_power on UAUA Yahoo mb. I just bumped it to the top. I do not know the source of his/her information, but the AMR numbers are the same on Yahoo).
"AMR = $4.5 Blllion Cash VS $11 Billion Debt & $23 Bill Revenue
AMR has 145% more Debt than cash
----------------------
CAL = $2.5 Billion Cash VS $5 Billion Debt & $15 Bill
Revenue
CAL has 100% more Debt than cash
----------------------------------
DAL = $2.6 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
DAL has 250% More Debt than Cash
----------------------------------
LCC = $2 Billion Cash VS $3.2 Billion Debt & $12 Bill
Revenue
LCC has 52% More Debt than Cash
-----------------------------------
NWA = $3.2 Billion Cash VS $7.2 Billion Debt & $13 Bill
Revenue
NWA has 125% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
UAUA = $3 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
UAUA has 200% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
If Cash is king and Debt is Cancer then the order of strongest to weakest purely using balance sheets would be in this order.
Strongest to weakest:
LCC
CAL
NWA
AMR
UAUA
DAL "
Do your own DD, GLTA
Airways magazine July 2008 has an article "Short Final for Airlines in Crisis," by Christopher Pittman, pages 12-15, available on line at www.airwaysmag.com. Discussing Frontier Airlines April 10, 2008, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and the failure/bankruptcy/reorganizations of Champion Air, ATA, Skybus and Aloha, Pittman writes:
"Many believe that there are more such closures on the horizon. With the U.S. economy, especially slowing, a credit squeeze, and fuel prices at all-time highs, it is a fair bet that only those with lots of cash will survive."
Oil <$120, maybe. Sound crazy right now, I know. But read on:
S&P's Energy chart (XLE) closed at $80.70 on 7-10-08 and has a bearish price objective of $69.00.
AMEX oil chart ($XOI) closed at 1,404, bearish PO $1270.
CRB Commodity Index ($CRB) closed at $448, MA(50) 435, (200)385.
Take a look at these charts at StockCharts.com and tell me what you see.
First oil needs go <$131.
If, if oil goes <$120, the bull market in oil MAY be over.
Way? How about a world wide slowdown/recession, in which oil consumption MAY slow down. What until the Olympics are over at the end of August.
Caveat: Middle East, e.g. Israel-Iran conflict- ALL BETS ARE OFF, oil will probably soar back to >$140++, which is what happened today, 7-12-08. Yes there is HIGH risk in projecting lower oil prices.
Do your own DD, GLTA.
Comparing the top US Legacy Carriers cash/debt (from Absolute_power on UAUA Yahoo mb. I just bumped it to the top. I do not know the source of his/her information, but the AMR numbers are the same on Yahoo).
"AMR = $4.5 Blllion Cash VS $11 Billion Debt & $23 Bill Revenue
AMR has 145% more Debt than cash
----------------------
CAL = $2.5 Billion Cash VS $5 Billion Debt & $15 Bill
Revenue
CAL has 100% more Debt than cash
----------------------------------
DAL = $2.6 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
DAL has 250% More Debt than Cash
----------------------------------
LCC = $2 Billion Cash VS $3.2 Billion Debt & $12 Bill
Revenue
LCC has 52% More Debt than Cash
-----------------------------------
NWA = $3.2 Billion Cash VS $7.2 Billion Debt & $13 Bill
Revenue
NWA has 125% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
UAUA = $3 Billion Cash VS $9 Billion Debt & $20 Bill
Revenue
UAUA has 200% More Debt than Cash
------------------------------------
If Cash is king and Debt is Cancer then the order of strongest to weakest purely using balance sheets would be in this order.
Strongest to weakest:
LCC
CAL
NWA
AMR
UAUA
DAL "
Do your own DD, GLTA