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"whatever pleases him" should include having shares priced at what they're realy worth ... I assume.
Hard to beleive handing out 5 shares when he could handout only one and diluting himself are pleasing him ???
9 presumably very significant news released in 1.5 months and the PPS went from $1.32 (High on May 16th)to $1.70 as of close yesterday.
Even this 30% increase is negligeable if you beleive only half what Matin claims (Profit per share of $0.50 +)?
Nice logical post but my view is that over the last year, Matin issued millions of shares worth less than $2 to execute whatever plan he has when (according to him) these shares were worth at least 5 times that much. He thereby unjustifyably (according to him) issued 5 times more shares than he had to.
Now one can beleive that the takers of these shares accepted on Matin's word that the shares they were receiving effectively were worth that much more than what the market said but I for one do not beleive it.
For almost 2 years, Matin kept promissing audits, reporting and listing on a real stock market. If as per your logical post he knew time had not yet come, why did he lied about it all along? Why did he not just use your argumentation to justify openly not doing it.
I have no doubts that our stock is worth something but between what the market says and what Matin claims, the gap is to large to be acceptable.
Nice post and I do not disagree with:"This is real. Veltex is real".
No bashing on my part but we have no way to know how real is real.
According to Matin, profit per share is $1 + (PPS of $12 - $15 justified by fundamentals).
According to the market (obviously including those who should know) this company is only worth less than $20,000,000 (10,000,000 X $1.70).
Still Matin spends a lot of money issuing PR's which have small or no impact on the PPS (credibility) instead on investing in actions which could inform the market appropriately. All along, Matin wants us to beleive that he uses shares undervalued by a factor of 6 to finance project.
Having been with this company as a shareholder for 6 long years, I certainly would not even think about bashing it. However, understanding what business management is all about, I sincerely wonder what is the motivation of Matin for not doing what everyone knows is needed to become credible.
The problem is that anyone having been around as long as I have would not interpret "What Matin said..." as "What we know ..". "What we know Matin said" is different from "What we know" in my view.
Everything here is a question of CREDIBILITY and for whatever reason of his, Matin refuse to do what's needed for him to get it.
Why would someone running a company generating $50,000,000 of revenues and $10,000,000 of profit stubbornly refuse to have his book credibly audited, his financials duly reported in due time and his stock taken out of pinksheet.
Till Matin proceeds with these steps, he could release that he bought sears and Wallmart but our PPS would spike 10 or 20% for an hour or so then get back to current price.
Matin may have a plan. He may be building something worth a lot but he obviously doesn't have a clue about the importance of being beleived if he wants to do it with shares traded at their real value instead of with "most undervalued" ones.
Obviously, Matin has something to hide and till he does the appropriate coming out, our stock will remain a toy for speculators and traders. No serious investor will touch it with a 10 foot pole.
May be one of these days, months ot years he will endup figuring this out ???
Very honestly, any release Matin will issue wil be taken with doubt till he finally does something that wil be verifyable from a source other than him.
This guy may be building the success story of the century but we as shareholders have no way to figure out if what he does release is or not real.
Very late deliveries (if ever) of promissed audits, no reporting, never explained why he did try to buy back something we tought we did own, ... are facts long time shareholders went thru and still do and therefore credibility is very low.
He obviously work hard at doing something but we have no way to realy know what it is and how successful he may be.
Hard to beleive that this company is generating $1/share profit (justifies a $12 or $15 PPS) and no audit is being performed to prove it. Something fishy is going on but we have no way to figure what it is.
Only 2 possible ways for us to act:
1- Sell and forget it
2- Hold and hope (if your cost justifies the risk).
This acquisition may suggest something about Matin's plan and strategy.
Getting involved in the Canadian market (relatively small relative to the US market)seems to be the objective of this acquisition. However I noticed on the Internet site of Explorer Headgear: ""With over 35 years of experience our China and Bangladesh plants".
We all know that Matin has a serious issue with the Bengladesh ownership and may be this step is also (may even be the primary objective) a step toward resolving this issue.
My beleif is that Matin cannot produce any serious audit presently (nevermind duly report to SEC) with financials including those of a part of the business he doesn't control anymore (fact he did hide till the last August BOD).
He somehow thru complex moves has to get around this issue before he can even think about normalisation of the company.
I do not know if this is what he is doing but owning (partly at least) two plants in Bengladesh could very well be a step (a next step could be a merging of these two) toward resolving an issue he carried for a long time not being able to outright admit he lost control of the first one without saying it at the time.
I beleive Matin has a plan but heck it's certainly not easy to figure it out.
Been away for over 2 weeks but obviously, I didn't miss much with this stock.
It is obvious to me that Matin is motivated by and working hard at building an asset in North America but has no interest whatsoever in performing duties related to managing a public company (audits,reporting,...).
If this "hypothesis" happen to be right, he then most likely would:
1- Buildup as big as possible a North American based operation
2- Get rid of whatever it is we still own in Bengladesh (thereby getting rid of an embarrassing situation he lied about in the past, trying to survive in tough days)
3- Convince someone to buy us out (easier to convince a single potential investor than a large number of investors/speculators)
4- Still remain as an "operation" manager (shareholder in the new outfit), leaving the "business" management troubles to someone else.
Till then, he will keep on issuing progress reports (read PR releases) but I do not expect him to spent time and money making this company a normally reporting one.
Two questions remain (in this "hypothetical" context:
1- When will he feel time has come to proceed with this plan (he first will have to clean up the Bengladesh affair)?
2- How much will he get for whatever it will be for whatever it will be he willl have built?
My most optimistic view is that:
1- He will sell out sometime in 2006.
2- God knows how much he will get for our shares (I expect anything above $3.00 considering he owns the same shares we do).
Safe Harbor for Forward-Looking Statements: The above is based on personnal observations only (OMHO) and may very well ony be wishful thinking on my part. LOL!
5-
Going away for 2 weeks, I decided to somewhat reducuce my position this morning (500 X $1.93) after having done the same on 01/04/2003 (200 X 4.70) and on 11/12/2004 (500 X $3.60). Since then I bought at between $0.50 and $2.00, thereby getting my current cost per share at $1.35 (remember I bought my first shares at $43.00 on 09/09/99). All numbers reflecting the R/S.
I either will ride at this unit cost or buy back if I can get back shares in the $1.25 range.
I do not beleive this to only be a scam, I do not beleive the financials Matin claims and I beleive there is something worth something out there and at $1.35 or less, I beleive the risk is worth being taken.
We shall see.
"I think he wants the credibility that comes from reporting, but cannot see it happening with the foreign op around his neck."
I fully agree that this could very well be. I regret he did not use the claimed acquisition opportunity to throw in the liquidation of the Bngladeshi assets, justifying it by his firm intent to make VLXC a normally reporting company as rapidly as possible.
I have no doubts anymore that the Bangladeshi situation is a pain in the neck for Matin. However, keeping claiming great financials presumably including those from out there and not outlining USA based progres specifically doesn't do anything to reduce this pain ... on the contrary.
Doing the right thing may not make a prince out of the frog but making a normal human being out of it certainly would be a step in the right direction.
After years of fooling around, I suggest time has come for Matin to show minipal respect for his shareholders and proves he meant what he wrote ("We greatly appreciate all of our loyal shareholders") However I would like him to have said "and will rapidly work to maximize share valuations through making the company a normally reporting company" instead of "and will always continue to work diligently to maximize share valuations through strong revenue and earnings
growth."
A "nice credible" story would certainly be more productive than an "hard to beleive outstanding" one.
C R E D I B I L I T Y is not only the most important objective to have, it's the only one worth working toward short term.
Till then, only gamblers and speculators will "play" the stock and no investor will buy in.
"it would be foolish to say what you paid for something if you do not have to"
I personally beleive it is foolish not to be as transparent as you can when your shares are trading at 10 to 20% the PPS you claim to be justified fundamentally and the market obviously doubt what you say.
One thing is for sure. The market is far from beleiving Matin on his word.
The only way this guy will get some credibility is by investing in the right place, whatever the cost: NORMALIZE THE DARN OUTFIT ONCE AND FOR ALL AND LET THE THRUTH BE KNOWN.
My view is it will not be as good as imagined by Matin but it will not be as bad as assumed by some.
By the way the phone number of the acquired outfit is 905-480-9700 as you can find at http://www.explorergear.com/direction.htm
Someone answer the phone (Headgear) but that's all I got.
I realy cannot understand why Matin succeed in writing such poorly written PR's (May be I try to keep my head in the sand?).
All we realy know is that the address can be found on Maps/Google:
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=10+Konrad+Crescent,+Markham,ON,+Canada&ll=43.835331,-79.356458&...
However, searching thru Bell 411 Internet facility, the given address doesn't give any phone number (This search gives no resul;ts).
Once more an "outstanding" news turns out to generate more questions than answers.
I do not say this is just BS but I cannot argue with those assuming it is.
That's also what I have in mind if Matin doesn't come out clean following this acquisition (still to be confirmed !!!)
No doubts about that. Till Matin clearly outline the Bengladesh situation, we will be stuck with audits of low interest (a 2004 audit would now be at least 6 months old) and an unverifyable letter by the impossible to trust Matin.
I sincerely hope you to be right (and you sound as if you know more than you say). However, the continuous behavior of Matin certainly demonstrates that he is hiding relevant facts.
My take is, as often said, he lied in the past about troubles he wanted to cover up for as long as possible (I suspect his loss of control of the Mill). He then kept hiding facts again thru half thruths being released to maintain the PPS and he now work at burrying his past lies instead of coming out clean saying it as it is.
The only way we will know what this stock is realy worth is for Matin to let us know where he now stands (never mind what did happen months"years ago.
If a Canadian deal come thru as alluded to, he should use the opportunity to clean the books once and for all, getting whatever he can from the Bengladesh based aseets and using it to finalize the deal. At the same time he should have a real solid audit performed by a serious auditing firm (delaying an audit for months because of claimed excessive workload is not serious).
I realy wonder what Matin is up to?
Wouldn't it be nice to be a bird sitting by Matin's window and listenning to him.
I realy wonder what he is doiing in his office.
A Bengladesh asset he doesn't seem to control anymore but includes in our financials as if we did.
An acquisition which is presumably in the wors but is still to be identified and confirmed (cash requirement suggest that Matin think he has access to it but who now where from?)
Growing sales (profits) in America but they are never defined.
Illusive audits which raise more questions than answers whenever released.
...
If this guy has a (reasonnable, feasable) plan, he must be very busy but we shareholders are in complete darkness and have to beleive from a proven unreliable source that we would be owning shares worth $10 to $15 (profit per share of more than $1.30), trading at $1.30???
Even worst, these shares (presumably undervalued by a factor of 10) should soon be used for an acquisition???
I am almost sure this is not just a scam but it certainly is the worst managed outfit II ever saw which hasn't yet gone bancrupt.
Dishonest? Incompetent? Dreamer? Who is this Matin realy?
Only God, him and his very close ones (iif any) do know.
My understanding is that 35% of the profits made out there will be the payable taxes if these are to be taken out of the country (To my recollection the finacials shown by Anne Tahim (those she received from the company) were showing a reserve to that effect.
This being said, I think Matin has lost control of the Bengldesh based business and therefore cannot decide by himself to import profits from out there.
My opinion only.
Looks to me that big blocks of shares (relative to BAU) are being traded.
9:30:54 AM Trade 1.325 4000
9:30:52 AM Trade 1.325 4000 ... $ 10,600 ?
10:49:44 AM Trade 1.32 3000
10:49:42 AM Trade 1.32 900
10:49:40 AM Trade 1.32 6000 ... $ 13,068 ?
11:02:04 AM Trade 1.25 10000 ... $ 12,500 ?
Personally and I admit it's an opinion I canoot prove, I beleive that Matin has an issue with Bengladesh. He obviously (BOD of last year)doesn't own it 100% and has a hard time letting us know how much of it we still own. He is stuck with a business, U.S. based auditors (twice) do refuse to endorse. He seems to have problems getting funding back to USA.
Financing is good, using useful cash would not be as smart I agree but using dormant money (or assets) seems to best the way to go, for as much as I can imagine (not realy knowing if my "scenario" makes or not sense to someone "knowing" what facts are).
My expressed frustration with this stock is that every time Matin releases something, we have no way to figure out if it's totally true, greatly exagerated or an outright lie (or fallout of a non-realistic dream of his).
Far from bashing this stock (I haven't sold any and do not plan to do it yet) I just wonder why a sain person would issue releases after releases which are obviously not beleived by the market instead of normalizing the company so normal DD could be done.
By beleif is that Matin went thru great troubles over the last few years and lied to hide it (particularly the Mills ownership question).
I also beleive that after a lot of work he now start to succeed, is stuck with his financial claims including those of a business he doesn't own anymore (at least not as much as previously claimed.
Instead of coming out clean, outlining past difficulties (as he endedup doing in relation with his transportation venture) he still tries to gradually burry his lies and will have to keep doing it till he resolve (sell) his Bengladesh issue.
Till then, he will keep postponing normalization giving the market required transparency.
My hope is that that he will simultaneously announce that he financed his Canadian acquisition (if the LOI is followed thru) thru the proceeds of selling our Bengladesh based assets.
Thereafter he probably will have a cleaner financial situation (balance sheet), will probably have to show smaller revenues and bottom line (since Bengladesh's will not be included anymore) but he will have made it to a situation where normalization can be acheived and credibility be re-established somewhat.
This opinion (That's all it is) may be all BS. However having followed Matin for 6 years, 2 of which were inactive, this is why I beleive that current PPS may very well be justified (Doesn't take the kind of financials actually claimed to justify a capitalization of $10,000,000).
I do not beleive we soon will see (beleivably) a profit per share of $1 or mor, justifying a PPS of $10 to $15. However I beleive it is still possible to see one of $0.10 or more within a reasonnable timeframe, justifying current PPS or more.
All in all, this remains an interesting (and frustrating) medium term speculation still presenting high risk (credibility of Matin) but interesting upward potential (I however do not hold my breath).
A much more negative "speculation" can also be outlined and justified by past events if someone wants to. I however am an optimist by nature but I generally try to manage my level of expectation and thereby remain realist most of the time.
Unless Matin has a strategy I do not understand or even can imagine, I hope the message is going to him that the only way he can have a PPS related to real business is to normalize the company.
My suggestion FWIW:(You will see I assume some of the information released in the past is true)
1- Save money by stopping issuing releases that nobody beleives.
2- Save money by getting rid of expensive ($4,000) useless communication firms.
3- Get capital by selling whatever it is we own in Bengladesh, pay taxes and get this then tax free capital back to USA (Try to arrange a contractual supply agreement with them.
4- Get a reputed (ressourced) auditing firm to cleanup all your financial reports.
5- Report to SEC
6- Assuming the numbers to justify it, get listed on a real stock market.
7- Proceed with your letter of intent
8- Then get a serious IR organisation to put your verifyable story out (It may not be as great as you said, you can always use the excuse that you sold the Bengladesh assets but it would be verifyable and the market would be able to "invest" in your stock instead of having few speculators "play" with it.
That is IF ... you realy have a business justifying current capitalization (+ or - $ 10,000,000). That should require a bottom line showing a PPS of more or less 10 to 15% the one you claim will be produced in 2005.
Till then, at least stop throwing in useless PR'S (as demonstrated today).
I mean that for a long time, Matin claims he did not have the funds to have a decent audit performed and now cannot afford auditors which can proceed in due time.
As for the "pumping" and/or "bashing", I do neighter since (not knowing facts) I could not justify doing one or the other.
I just try to share my opinions and feelings, not intending to buy or sell shares at the current price and sitting on those I own, considering them to be old presumed lost money which could still generate something nice ... who knows.
As long as I know it's icecream for real, I do not think so.
By the way, for as much as I can see, the market is not rushing in to buy a stock presumably available at a multiplier smaller than 1.
For one, I certainly do not claim that Matin is lying and I cannot say he isn't. All I say is he does nothing to regain some kind of credibility.
He can buy companies, he can use stocks to finance acquisitions, his shares are selling at 10 times less than what he claims them to be worth and he cannot afford to pay for clean audits which could be normally reported to SEC.
As I often said, I am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is just a real bad business manager but I also understand those thinking that if it's to nice to be true it probably isn't.
Both the previous messages demonstrate what I was writing earlier. Whatever Matin and his paid partners say, the actual context (total lack of credibility) makes it very suspicious in the eyes of many, not to say most.
Additionally, the releases they issue are always generating more questions than answers, even if you try to beleive what they say.
Bottom line: After 1.5 hour of trading following a release alluding to adding $7,000,000 revenues to the previously claimed $55,000,000 and $1,000,000 profit to the previously claimed $11,000,000, the shares still sell at less than the claimed profit/share (down 3.2%).
I do not disagree with any of your comments but, considering the unreliability of Matin's and the lack of credibility he now has to live with, my point is that for most, this PR means nothing since it can be a great news or just another dream of his.
The fact is that we realy have no way to know.
Till Matin does whatever is needed for him to become credible again, anyone can only "speculate" relative to what this story realy is or not.
As for Bengladesh, IF this international asset cannot be included in a credible way within Veltex's financials, IF the U.S. operation is realy growing as said and IF the Canadian venture materialize, I suggest that Matin should sell whatever it is we presumably own out there (including a solid long term supplier/client agreement), import the proceeds in USA and use them to normalize and expand the North American "distribution" business. IF the proceeds are big enough, buying back few shares could also give an appropriate signal to the market.
Bottom line is:
"cleanup the situation", "audit" , "Report". Nothing new in there.
I realy do not care why Matin got himself in trouble over time (Failed 2002 synergy plan, transportation, hiding facts hoping to solve before getting caught, ...).
What I care about is to know where we stand now and what our plans are for tomorrow.
A clean coming out by Matin is overdue. Till he makes it, not much serious can happen.
Veltex Signs Letter of Intent ... to acquire the promotional products division of a 30 plus year manufacturing company to gain further market share from the over 4,000 distributors of promotional products in Canada. (Would have been nice to say who that is?)
Javeed Matin stated, "We anticipate to consummate this acquisition for cash and very little stock." (Would have been nice to have a time frame? In the near future is not saying much).
Finn Walstad, CEO of OTCGrowth.com, commented, "I would expect a rapid expansion of the PE as the investment community discovers this hidden gem." (If only the company was putting their money where their mouth is, i.e. normalizing, this could lead the investment community to the famous GEM).
Bottom line, such a release from a "reliable" source would be incredibly profitable for all shareholders. The problem is that Matin has yet to do something serious leading the market into beleiving him.
Having old money in there, I for one plan to stay put, wait and see.
I still would not recommend a friend to buy (high risk still), but I would not recommend him to sell either (high reward poptential).
Not much to discuss on this situation.
I wonder what Matin is cooking behind the doors.
The surprise to me is the PPS not going down and the low volumes of shares being traded.
Let's see what the next releases are all about (financials, acquisition/mergers, ???).
Till then let's enjoy other stocks.
Right, I'm quite a bad typist. Thanks
"If VLXC is making $11mm/year, it will have plenty of cash to make acquisitions in the size of $1mm-$3mm without further dilutions with cheap shares."
""If VLXC is making $11mm/year" it does it in Bengladesh and it seems obvious that for whatever reason, Matin cannot "import" it in USA for whatever purpose. This seems to be THE issue and looks as if it has been for the last 3 years.
As I often say, it's easy to make $ 1,000,000. You invest $2,500,000 at 4% for one year and wait. Only one issue, you must have the $2,500,000.
Assuming Matin wants to buy the company at $10,000,000, he must have it, wait till the whole situation is normalised then sell it at $100,000,000.
Alternatively (not having access to the $10,000,000) he keeps doing what he does, take whatever time it takes to normalize the company (sell what is worth something but is not acknowledged for in U.S., reinvest in acquiring acknowledgeable assets, grow his market, ...). During that time, he accumulates shares and options and whenever time has come he is worth a lot without having put up anymore capital he didn't have in the first place anyhow.
In the mean time (we know he cannot get money with the financials he actually can show) if capital is needed for him to expand, he can issue shares adlib and get it from the market.
Realism is always welcome.
If so, nowadays it seems to be business as usual ... whatever the company you look at.
The best summary I have read in a long time.
Do I think the company is for real?
I do. (Same here)
Is is making money?
I don't know. (Neighter do I)
Will the stock appreciate?
I don't have a clue and either do you. (DITTO)
Will they ever become a fully reporting company?
Depends if they are able to become independent of the Bangladeshi operation at some point in time. (Looking forward to it)
Why?
Because getting information out of any third world country in a manner that suits U.S. timeframes is never going to happen.(among other things).
Anyone who thinks so is just fooling themselves and I doubt Matin is stupid (I however beleive he is a real poor "business manager").
Big deal, the 2004 audit is late. You'll like this even less, because when it does come out it will still be unconsolidated (No doubts about that).
The 2005 audit will tell the story for those willing to wait.
Notice I never said it would be a profitable wait. Just a wait (Let us pray...).
All we need to fundamentally justify current PPS (however it could also be a lot ... who knows) is that Veltex (whatever it is)can justify a capitalization of less than $10,000,000.
Roughly this means a profit per share of more or less $ 0.10 or $ 1,000,000 in 2005.
Considering the marketing effort of the last 18 months or so, this could be. However the results of this work can still only be assumed based on PR's issued by someone whose credibility is non existent as of now.
This is a speculation if there ever was one. The downward risk "seems" quite limited and the upward risk a lot less certain.
"the foreign subsidiaries reporting issues."
That's an issue (among others) Matin will have to resolve sooner than later. He cannot keep having U.S. results duly audited by a verifyable source on one hand, and a side letter by him claiming unverifyable financials presumably verified by an unverifyable source on the other hand.
"Sure, some people have doubts. That's fine, but what proof do they have?"
I do not need proof to have doubts. I need it not to ... one way or the other.
"why would he hire the C.P.A. firm in the first place? You don't need audited yearly financials to be on pink sheets!"
As you say, if he wants to remain a penny stock listed on pinksheet, he doesn't have to do much altogether.
However, for whatever reasons he has been issuing new shares and now claims he look into acquisition. In this context, not putting "normalization" as priority number 1 doesn't make sense ... if the story is anything close to what is being claimed.
Audit, listing and credibility seems to be the only way to go for someone heading the kind of business Matin claims to be running. Accepting to stay a penny stock on pinksheet is either a way to hide somthing or demonstrate you are to say the least, incompetent.
I do not judge, I just observe and wonder what this guy is realy doing and why. Bottom lin: I DO NOT HAVE A CLUE!
It,s kind of nice to read opinions ans assumptions in here but let's be honest, we do not have a clue what this is all about.
The thruth is somewhere between "An incredibly underrated opportunity" or "a disaster in the making".
I personally beleive it's none of these 2 but have no way to know how close to one or the other, reality stands.