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buylowsellhigh11, I contacted VNBL and asked them for a drilling update on I believe Wednesday. They told me they would most likely release a PR sometime on Friday with an update. No I am not an insider, just an investor that does all my own DD and does not rely on others.
Brad
trade2much, I don't know what the deal is on RB board. Guess someone did not want me posting, perhaps I have done too much DD and they don't want me telling others.
I have read the TOS violations and don't feel I am in violation but for whatever reason I cannot post there. I did read about a 7 days suspension from posting so perhaps by Friday or Saturday I will be able to post there again.
Good to see you back, I hope vacation was good to you. Are you still holding or did you sell out before vacation?
Brad
kel104852, are you viewing this board?
Brad
James, what you will find in drilling for oil is that it is better to spread the risk of a dry hole among several rather that than going all in yourself.
It's like the stock market, it is better to be diversified and be invested in many stocks rather than to have all your eggs in just one. It may reduce your ability to become rich over night but at the same time it prevents the risk of you losing everything all at once as well.
ORX Resources is the operator and the lease holder. They have divvied out the cost to many, VNBL just so happens to have a 5% interest. Of the public trading company's we know TXHE to have an 11% interest and there could be even more public company's we don't know about and I'm sure there are also many private investors as well. Since ORX Resources is not a publicly traded company, it is difficult to get a full list of all the JV's.
This is very normal, Chevron, Exxon, Shell all do the same thing but with fewer partners and each partner obtaining a larger percent in most cases.
Your next question may be why have we not shown any interest in TXHE. The reason is that TXHE is a Pink Sheet who quit filing quarterly reports a while back. In their filings since then, they have divvied out millions of shares and CD thus the stock has a huge dilution factor built into it.
Hope this helps,
Brad
msgbrdinfo, I do not e-mail investors but you are always welcome to e-mail me if you have questions you are not comfortable posting on the boards or want to go into more in dept discussions on a topic. BMiles0108@aol.com
Brad
msgbrdinfo, I will try to answer your questions. This area has been in play as far back as the 1970's to my knowledge. There are many wells and many oil & gas companies in this area already. Some have found only gas while some have found both gas and oil.
Technology detects these pockets of anomalies but it cannot tell what these anomalies are. Because of that it is a risk involved in every whole you stick in the ground. For instance, this well is costing 5.6 million dollars to drill. That is one heck of a risk but you can bet they have some very convincing information that compelled them to spend that type of money.
As to your other question, I cannot think of any way to calculate the asset value of gas as they have never stated the size of the reserve.
Hope I have been of some help,
Brad
New Information (Updated) -
(This is what I had posted on Raging Bull on July 5th. I have included on the bottom an update I have found out about since then.)
I have been waiting on VNBL to give me the okay to share with all of you a few things I have discussed with them, below is a list of a few items of importance.
First off, I have a drill progress result. As of this morning they were at 10,404 feet, last night they had changed the drill bit.
I had asked them about their web site stating it was coming soon, they told me the website would go live next week and would corespond with their name change to Matrix Resource Holdings, Inc. as mentioned in their last SEC filing. They said next week and probably around the 11th. They felt the name change made more sense as in the direction the company has made.
I also asked if their had been any discussions of a reverse split and below I have quoted word for word their response.
"A reverse split would be a corporate action that would be required to be in the 14C as well as the name change. Since we did not announce it, we cannot conduct one. The company believes that doing a reverse at this time is of no benefit, and there has been consideration that if the well is successful, the company can restructure by repurchasing some shares instead of reversing."
So there you have it guys, more information to digest. Name change next week, live web site next week, no reverse split, and possibly a share buy back further down the road.
(Now here is the update to this post, they now expect the name change to take place around Friday of next week.)
Brad
VNBL Still a 100% buy rating from Barcharts, check it out.
http://quotes.barchart.com/texadv.asp?sym=vnbl
Brad
VNBL DD #1 Attached Below for Newcomers -
VNBL has a 5% interest in a well that is currently being drilled as we speak. They expect to prove reserves of 11 million barrels of oil from an historically proven territory referred to as the Clovelly Field. From this link you will see the Clovelly Field has been producing oil and gas for many years. http://www.cgrpttc.lsu.edu/lainfo/prodfld/ (Scroll Down and select Clovelly) Highly unlikely they won't find a payout in my opinion.
The O/S on this stock right now is 114,679,131. As many of you may be aware, the SEC does not allow a company to record reserves as an asset on their financial's until it has been proven. It does not matter what type of technology you use to show there is oil under an area of land, it is not considered proven until you have drilled the property and have proven a plan of recovery of the oil.
Now for the fun part -
11 million barrels x $70 a barrel = $770,000,000
$770,000,000 x 5% interest = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 / 114,679,131 shares outstanding = asset book value of 34 cents a share.
Now for real book value:
Asset from new well if proved = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 + $1,825,000 assets currently reported in most recent filing = $40,325,000
$40,325,000 - $612,000 in total liabilities reported on last SEC filing = $39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity
$39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity / 114,679,131 Shares Outstanding = 35 cents Book Value.
If they do hit recoverable oil, the book value of the stock will jump to 35 cents a share. Now when we consider that oil stocks are currently trading two - three times book value, we could theoretically see the stock trading to as high as $.70 - $1.05 in a very short period of time. That would generate one heck of a return for a stock currently trading at 2 cents a share. Now I am not speculating the stock will ever trade to $1.05 but I have however proven it to be a real possibility if they do prove oil with the current drilling program.
Considering today’s technology used to identify oil reserves, the chance of not finding oil in this already proven area have been significantly reduced as opposed to several years back. In my opinion. I believe it is highly likely the Drill Rig will discover what VNBL and the JV’s are anticipating. I don't seem to be the only one expecting to see value added to this stock, let’s take a look at the CFO / CEO trading action.
Catherine Thompson is the CFO / CEO of VNBL, below I have outlined her trading pattern and dates. The obvious here is that if anyone is going to know where the stock price is going to go, it is going to be the CFO / CEO.
Lets first point out that Catherine was selling her holding of stock in this company as late as October of 2004. Obviously she knew what she was doing as the stock has done nothing but head straight down ever since.
Catherine seems to now have a change of heart as to the direction she believes the stock will be trading as shown by the shares she has recently taken on with no SEC filings indicating she has sold a single share since October 2004.
Stock Transactions:
7/1/2005 - 700,000 Shares at 10 cents
2/6/2006 - 1,166,667 Shares at 3 cents
2/9/2006 - 55,000 Shares at 3 cents
3/31/2006 - 897,462 Shares at 1.3 cents
4/25/2006 - 618,519 Shares at 1.35 cents
5/4/2006 - 1,041,464 Shares at 1.12 cents
Catherine has quite a large position of stock in this company and as I stated, she has not been selling but taking on even more shares. My guess is that the reasoning behind her taking on all these shares revolves around what she anticipates the value of the stock to be once it can realize the Clovelly South Prospect reserves in its financial filings. This is just a hunch but if the reason for holding all these shares is not because of the Clovelly South Prospect then it must be because of something else she is in the know about. It only makes sense that Catherine has a much better insight as to which direction this stock is going to trade in the near future than I do for obvious inside reasons.
The last thing I would like to point out here is that as of May 2nd 2005, VNBL came off the SHO list. To get on the SHO list, there must be an illegal necked short position in your stock. Those that sale these illegal shares are very organized and very in tune with a company’s status. These large organized groups sell these illegal shares into a stock they believe will never have a viable business and will just disappear one day. In this situation, the large organized group never has to cover there illegal shorted position.
I have studied this illegal shorting activity for the past three years now, I have become very knowledgeable on this subject. One thing I have found is that you can buy up all the shares in your own company you want, you can buy up the entire float, but the most successful way of forcing these groups to cover is by adding real value to your company. I can go into how this works in greater detail on another date but my point here is that smart money found a viable reason to cover there illegally shorted position.
I do not claim to be an expert on fundamentals but I do believe this DD summary to be fully factual and accurate to the best of my knowledge. All of this information has been generated directly from recent PR’s and most importantly the SEC filings. If anyone has any question or needs me to go into greater detail, don't hesitate to ask. I believe this stock to present the home run possibilities everyone hopes to be a part of and I wish everyone the best of luck.
Brad
VNBL DD #2 for Newcomers
When you hear them refer to our well as Allain LeBreton No. 2, did it ever get you wondering if their was a Allain LeBreton No. 1? Well you are in luck because I have the answer for you right here.
I have found that ORX Resources, a private organization, is the operator of our Allain LeBreton No. 2 well. I have also found they were the Operator of Allain LeBreton No. 1 as well. Here you will see they had run the pipeline to put that well into production.
ORX RESOURCES
C/O C.H. FENSTERMAKER & ASSOCIATES, INC.
LOCATION OF WORK: Lafourche Parish, LA: Section 7; T19S-R22E; Section 31 & 32, T18S-R22E
DESCRIPTION OF WORK: Proposed installation of one 4-inch flowline, approximately 7,494 feet in length to serve and produce the ORX Resources, Inc.- Allain Lebreton No. 1 Well. The line will be installed from the well, across the levee and then directionally bored below and existing ditch and roadway. The line will be installed on the surface of the marsh and directionally bored from the east side of the Hurricane Protection Levee below an existing ditch and roadway. An existing permitized pad site adjacent to the road will be used for the entry point and the backstring of the pipe will be placed on rollers adjacent to the levee at the exit point of the bore. The levee crossing will be conducted in accordance with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ specification. No tracked or wheeled vehicles will be used for the installation of the pipe across the marsh.
http://www.slld.net/mins-agendas/aug.html
The well was not however a perfect well. It produced natural gas at a strong rate of 2.55 million cubic feet per day but the oil production was not as what was expected in that they found oil and condensate as you will see here in a PR from a JV at the time.
http://www.sism.com/Ioc04082004.pdf
In addition, the Allain LeBreton No. 1 well was drilled to only 13,140 feet as seen in this PR from the former JV. http://www.sism.com/IOC%20PR%20Feb%2013%202004.pdf The significant difference here is that ORX Resources and the JV's have decided to drill the Allain LeBreton No. 1 well down to 14,500 feet where they anticpate from further 3D Seismic survey's they will locate 11 million barrels of oil.
The Allain LeBreton No. 1 well showed signs that the oil was there for the taking, all we have to do this time is just tap into it and hopefully drilling down another 1,400 feet at a new location will do the trick.
Worst case scenario we only find gas:
2.55 million cubicfeet per day is equal to 2627 MMBTU per day
2627 x $7 Average per MMBTU = $18,389 per day (not accounting for higher winter pricing)
$18,389 x 365 days in a year = $6,711,985
$6,711,985 x 5% interest = $335,599 Annual Revenue for VNBL
At this time, I do not know the potential size of the natural gas reserve so I cannot calculate how much this reserve would effect the book value of VNBL as I have if they locate oil.
Not bad when you consider the stock is trading at 2 cents with only 97,595,274 O/S and very little debt. I've seen oil company's trading much higher with no revenue stream and a much higher O/S while carrying a very heavy debt load. In the least, you know your secure entering the stock at the current trading range.
Best case scenario is we find the 11 million barrels of oil:
11 million barrels x $70 a barrel = $770,000,000
$770,000,000 x 5% interest = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 / 97,595,274 shares outstanding = asset book value of 39 cents a share.
Now for real book value:
Asset from new well if proved = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 + $1,825,000 assets currently reported in most recent filing = $40,325,000
$40,325,000 - $612,000 in total liabilities reported on last SEC filing = $39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity
$39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity / 97,595,274 Shares Outstanding = 41 cents Book Value.
If they do hit recoverable oil, the book value of the stock will jump to 41 cents a share. Now when we consider that oil stocks are currently trading two - three times book value, we could theoretically see the stock trading to as high as $.82 - $1.23 in a very short period of time. That would generate one heck of a return for a stock currently trading at 2 cents a share. Now I am not speculating, nor do I believe the stock will ever trade to $1.23 but I have however proven it to be a real possibility if they do prove oil with the current drilling program.
This will be the second well for ORX Resources in this area, I seriously doubt they would drill another well that deep if they only expected to find natural gas again this time and not recoverable oil, especially when you consider the drilling to cost in excess of $5,000,000 and ORX Resources is putting up the majority of the cash from what I have found. This well is not a hoax or a phantom well that does not exit, I have even found licensing and permitting of this second well.
Either best case scenario or worst case scenario, I think I have proven without a doubt that the share price will move up with the results of the current drilling program taking place. I hope this has been helpful for those on the fence about investing in this stock.
Brad
Listen guys, here is the deal. Many of you have grown to trust me for various reasons from DD work to company updates or even the PR today. If you have sold with intentions of pocketing your cash and moving on then I congratulate you on your profits and wish you the best of luck. If on the other hand, you were an expert trader today and sold this morning with intentions of getting back in at a lower price, I encourage you all to not mess around for very long next week.
Guys, I have DD'd this stock to death and I just can't emphasize enough that if you plan to get back in this stock then don't mess around very long. There are reasons why "egv" had such a hard time chasing the stock today when he tried to buy after the drop, only getting filled small orders at each level. There are reasons why this stock retraced to 6 cents while pump and dump stocks hit 6 cents and head south for good. There are reasons why the MM's two, three, and four at a time were creeping down the ASK the last half of the day to 6.1 - 6.3 cents only to watch them all get wiped out at once with small blocks of 10,000 - 50,000 shares.
There are stocks you get in that run from 2 cents to 6 cents then back down to 2 cents in days or weeks. There are stocks you hear about and look at the chart to see it ran from 2 cents to 20 or 30 cents, the home run stocks. The ones you said I wish I could have been in that stock. I will assure you this is not the 6 cent stock run. Take my advice for what it is worth or read into it what you want. In closing, I do want to wish the best of luck to all of you in your attempt to flip shares.
Brad
vozmil, the SHO list can be accessed here - http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regsho.aspx
Brad
For some reason I cannot post on Raging Bull tonight, I suspect Raging Bull or someone did not like me calling the PR after the close today. Good news is my account over there was not deleted so I suspect I will be able to post there again within 1 - 7 days. If any of you post on the Raging Bull side, I would appreciate you letting others know I will be here.
Brad
Lowman, do you not understand what asset values represent? For instance, your house is an asset. The value of your house would be it's value on the open market, not how many years it would take you to generate that cash by renting your house. Once an oil reserve is proven and proven recoverable it obtains a value of worth, that value becomes an asset. Asset values are the key component to determining a company's book value. You can't even start to calculate book value without knowing the assets. How long it takes to raise "X" amount of money is not a part of the book value calculation at all. Hope I have helped in educating you.
Brad
VNBL is running, check raging bull board for additional DD other than what I posted here the other day.
Brad
VNBL has a 5% interest in a well that is set to begin drilling as we speak. They expect to prove reserves of 11 million barrels of oil. The O/S on this stock right now is 114,679,131. As many of you may be aware, the SEC does not allow a company to record reserves as an asset on their financial's until it has been proven. It does not matter what type of technology you use to show there is oil under an area of land, it is not considered proven until you have drilled the property and have proven a plan of recovery of the oil.
Now for the fun part -
11 million barrels x $70 a barrel = $770,000,000
$770,000,000 x 5% interest = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 / 114,679,131 shares outstanding = asset book value of 34 cents a share.
Now for real book value:
Asset from new well if proved = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 + $1,825,000 assets currently reported in most recent filing = $40,325,000
$40,325,000 - $612,000 in total liabilities reported on last SEC filing = $39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity
$39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity / 114,679,131 Shares Outstanding = 35 cents Book Value.
If they do hit recoverable oil, the book value of the stock will jump to 35 cents a share. Now when we consider that oil stocks are currently trading two - three times book value, we could theoretically see the stock trading to as high as $.70 - $1.05 in a very short period of time. That would generate one heck of a return for a stock currently trading at 2 cents a share. Now I am not speculating the stock will ever trade to $1.05 but I have however proven it to be a real possibility if they do prove oil with the current drilling program.
Considering today’s technology used to identify oil reserves, the chance of not finding oil have been significantly reduced as opposed to several years back. In my opinion, I believe it is highly likely the Drill Rig will discover what VNBL and the JV’s are anticipating. I don't seem to be the only one expecting to see value added to this stock, let’s take a look at the CFO / CEO trading action.
Catherine Thompson is the CFO / CEO of VNBL, below I have outlined her trading pattern and dates. The obvious here is that if anyone is going to know where the stock price is going to go, it is going to be the CFO / CEO.
Lets first point out that Catherine was selling her holding of stock in this company as late as October of 2004. Obviously she knew what she was doing as the stock has done nothing but head straight down ever since.
Catherine seems to now have a change of heart as to the direction she believes the stock will be trading as shown by the shares she has recently taken on with no SEC filings indicating she has sold a single share since October 2004.
Stock Transactions:
7/1/2005 - 700,000 Shares at 10 cents
2/6/2006 - 1,166,667 Shares at 3 cents
2/9/2006 - 55,000 Shares at 3 cents
3/31/2006 - 897,462 Shares at 1.3 cents
4/25/2006 - 618,519 Shares at 1.35 cents
5/4/2006 - 1,041,464 Shares at 1.12 cents
Catherine has quite a large position of stock in this company and as I stated, she has not been selling but taking on even more shares. My guess is that the reasoning behind her taking on all these shares revolves around what she anticipates the value of the stock to be once it can realize the Clovelly South Prospect reserves in its financial filings. This is just a hunch but if the reason for holding all these shares is not because of the Clovelly South Prospect then it must be because of something else she is in the know about. It only makes sense that Catherine has a much better insight as to which direction this stock is going to trade in the near future than I do for obvious inside reasons.
The last thing I would like to point out here is that as of May 2nd 2005, VNBL came off the SHO list. To get on the SHO list, there must be an illegal necked short position in your stock. Those that sale these illegal shares are very organized and very in tune with a company’s status. These large organized groups sell these illegal shares into a stock they believe will never have a viable business and will just disappear one day. In this situation, the large organized group never has to cover there illegal shorted position.
I have studied this illegal shorting activity for the past three years now, I have become very knowledgeable on this subject. One thing I have found is that you can buy up all the shares in your own company you want, you can buy up the entire float, but the most successful way of forcing these groups to cover is by adding real value to your company. I can go into how this works in greater detail on another date but my point here is that smart money found a viable reason to cover there illegally shorted position.
I do not claim to be an expert on fundamentals but I do believe this DD summary to be fully factual and accurate to the best of my knowledge. All of this information has been generated directly from recent PR’s and most importantly the SEC filings. If anyone has any question or needs me to go into greater detail, don't hesitate to ask. I believe this stock to present the home run possibilities everyone hopes to be a part of and I wish everyone the best of luck.
Brad
VNBL has a 5% interest in a well that is set to begin drilling as we speak. They expect to prove reserves of 11 million barrels of oil. The O/S on this stock right now is 114,679,131. As many of you may be aware, the SEC does not allow a company to record reserves as an asset on their financial's until it has been proven. It does not matter what type of technology you use to show there is oil under an area of land, it is not considered proven until you have drilled the property and have proven a plan of recovery of the oil.
Now for the fun part -
11 million barrels x $70 a barrel = $770,000,000
$770,000,000 x 5% interest = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 / 114,679,131 shares outstanding = asset book value of 34 cents a share.
Now for real book value:
Asset from new well if proved = $38,500,000
$38,500,000 + $1,825,000 assets currently reported in most recent filing = $40,325,000
$40,325,000 - $612,000 in total liabilities reported on last SEC filing = $39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity
$39,713,000 Total Stock Holder Equity / 114,679,131 Shares Outstanding = 35 cents Book Value.
If they do hit recoverable oil, the book value of the stock will jump to 35 cents a share. Now when we consider that oil stocks are currently trading two - three times book value, we could theoretically see the stock trading to as high as $.70 - $1.05 in a very short period of time. That would generate one heck of a return for a stock currently trading at 2 cents a share. Now I am not speculating the stock will ever trade to $1.05 but I have however proven it to be a real possibility if they do prove oil with the current drilling program.
Considering today’s technology used to identify oil reserves, the chance of not finding oil have been significantly reduced as opposed to several years back. In my opinion, I believe it is highly likely the Drill Rig will discover what VNBL and the JV’s are anticipating. I don't seem to be the only one expecting to see value added to this stock, let’s take a look at the CFO / CEO trading action.
Catherine Thompson is the CFO / CEO of VNBL, below I have outlined her trading pattern and dates. The obvious here is that if anyone is going to know where the stock price is going to go, it is going to be the CFO / CEO.
Lets first point out that Catherine was selling her holding of stock in this company as late as October of 2004. Obviously she knew what she was doing as the stock has done nothing but head straight down ever since.
Catherine seems to now have a change of heart as to the direction she believes the stock will be trading as shown by the shares she has recently taken on with no SEC filings indicating she has sold a single share since October 2004.
Stock Transactions:
7/1/2005 - 700,000 Shares at 10 cents
2/6/2006 - 1,166,667 Shares at 3 cents
2/9/2006 - 55,000 Shares at 3 cents
3/31/2006 - 897,462 Shares at 1.3 cents
4/25/2006 - 618,519 Shares at 1.35 cents
5/4/2006 - 1,041,464 Shares at 1.12 cents
Catherine has quite a large position of stock in this company and as I stated, she has not been selling but taking on even more shares. My guess is that the reasoning behind her taking on all these shares revolves around what she anticipates the value of the stock to be once it can realize the Clovelly South Prospect reserves in its financial filings. This is just a hunch but if the reason for holding all these shares is not because of the Clovelly South Prospect then it must be because of something else she is in the know about. It only makes sense that Catherine has a much better insight as to which direction this stock is going to trade in the near future than I do for obvious inside reasons.
The last thing I would like to point out here is that as of May 2nd 2005, VNBL came off the SHO list. To get on the SHO list, there must be an illegal necked short position in your stock. Those that sale these illegal shares are very organized and very in tune with a company’s status. These large organized groups sell these illegal shares into a stock they believe will never have a viable business and will just disappear one day. In this situation, the large organized group never has to cover there illegal shorted position.
I have studied this illegal shorting activity for the past three years now, I have become very knowledgeable on this subject. One thing I have found is that you can buy up all the shares in your own company you want, you can buy up the entire float, but the most successful way of forcing these groups to cover is by adding real value to your company. I can go into how this works in greater detail on another date but my point here is that smart money found a viable reason to cover there illegally shorted position.
I do not claim to be an expert on fundamentals but I do believe this DD summary to be fully factual and accurate to the best of my knowledge. All of this information has been generated directly from recent PR’s and most importantly the SEC filings. If anyone has any question or needs me to go into greater detail, don't hesitate to ask. I believe this stock to present the home run possibilities everyone hopes to be a part of and I wish everyone the best of luck.
Brad
I disagree, RonnieD has been the least effective basher, very amateur and very weak arguments.
Brad
I don't like it. It is not an official site of North West Oil and should be clearly noted on the home page where everyone can figure that out without looking. The site gives the appearance to be an official site for North West Oil Group and will mislead many investors. The problem there is that though it is cool and there is a lot of good DD work copied over to it, it would not be considered to be professional if it had been generated by the company. If investors believe this is the company's site then the company will lose credibility and will look like a pump and dump scam. Bottom line is it needs to be clearly stated on the home page on top and in big bold letters that this is not the official sited of North West Oil Group.
JMO,
Brad
I think we should expect more than the NDOL projections. Isn't two 7-Eleven stores better than one?
Brad
No problem cynic, you said exactly what I was thinking myself.
Brad
Excellent find Gan. EOM
cynic - here is a follow up on shorting.
I did a copy paste of a post I made a couple months ago and quickly tailored it to apply to NDOL because I am short on time. trade2much has seen my original post on the subject along with a few other posts I have made. Do feel free to ask questions if their is anything you all don't understand.
I am by no means an expert on the subject of naked shorting but to understand the scams in the penny market I have spent countless hours during the past two years trying to understand naked shorting better.
I don't have a lot of time so I will keep this short and direct.
Shorting is to borrow shares to sell into the market at say 9 cents with plans of buying these shares back at say 3 cents. When buy these shares back then you return the shares back to whom they were borrowed from.
Naked shorting is the act of selling shares into the market though there are no shares left to borrow. This is illegal though the SEC has done little to regulates it. When you short a stock and the broker cannot deliver the shares that were supposed to be borrowed because there are no more shares left to borrow against, this is called a failure to deliver. In this event the stock will show up on the SHO list under the below copied conditions.
1. There are aggregate fails to deliver at a registered clearing agency of 10,000 shares or more per security;
2. The level of fails is equal to at least one-half of one percent of the issuer’s total shares outstanding; and
3. The security is included on a list published by a self-regulatory organization (SRO).
A security ceases to be a threshold security if it does not exceed the specified level of fails for five consecutive settlement days.
Here is the link to the SHO list which is updated daily for those that care to watch it. In addition the above copied criteria was also copied from this link.
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regsho.aspx
The beauty of this is that those who had shorted a stock despite knowing there were no shares left to borrow against, well they gambled that this company would not survive and would eventually go belly up. In that event they took profit when they sold the shares and never had to cover. This is the case with many penny stocks, illegal shares are sold into the market thus driving the price down where a newel formed company in dire needs of raising cash cannot do so effectively because the price per share has been driven down to near nothing. When they close the doors or file BK and seize to exist, those illegally shorted shares never had to be covered. It is free money to those who shorted the stock illegally.
In our instance, NDOL is not going belly up and is here to stay. The worst thing possible is about to happen to those who shorted and naked shorted the stock, this company is already profitable while revenue and profits will continue to grow at accelerated leaps with each quarterly filing.
A stock that has been pumped all over the board a while back was LFWK. They were boasting they had captured the shorts by buying up all the free trading shares while yet the stock continues to trade. Well maybe they have and maybe they haven't but this stock will end up in litigations for years before they ever see any long term gain from capturing the naked shorts.
The beauty in our situation is that ultimately value drives the stock price up. NDOL will continue to be profitable and will show growth in each coming quarterly report. This drives the stock price up and continues to drive it up with each financial report. Legally shorted or naked shorted, those who shorted go belly up in their margin accounts and they are forced to cover as the brokerage is responsible for covering this negative cash position.
Because NDOL will continue to be profitable, the stock will never see three to six cents again and will only continue up. The brokerage houses will force these short positions to cover as they go deeper in the whole. This is a much more effective way to force a cover than getting the SEC involved.
If NDOL is truly shorted, the shorts both legal and naked are covering. When these shares are purchased back by the shorts they cancel out the short position of that share. This in turn reduces the amount of free trading shares thus making it harder for them to cover.
Bottom line is the higher the price goes the more belly up these short accounts become and the more accounts that are forced to cover. The more accounts that are forced to cover the higher the price goes. If NDOL holds a heavy short position then stock is a double edged sword.
Like I said, I am by no means an expert, this is just a quick education for some of you,
Brad
cynic, you have a good grasp on it. SHO is supposed to step in and force the cover but that doesn't happen so that is why stocks like AURC stay on the list for long lengths of time. The problem is too large for the SEC to handle nor do they really want to. SHO was written to take some heat off of the SEC but yet the SEC knew at the time they did not have the resources to execute. Even to this day, the SEC will argue that naked shorting does not exist.
One add on to your example, if you, trade2much, and I work together and you naked short trade2much 100,000 shares, if I sell you 100,000 naked short shares in three day and trade2much sells me his 100,000 naked short shares in another three days, we never come under SHO scrutiny as all we do is keep moving these shares around to avoid the three day time line. The only real way to force the naked shorts to cover is by movement up, it is not the SEC that forces the cover then, it is the brokerages. I can explain more later tonight if you like.
I have a pretty good knowledge on illegal shorting, I will be more than willing to answer further questions tonight but I got to run for now.
Brad
tradeit6 and others, don't give me the short conspiracy theory, that has always been one of the excuses for those who ride a stock from the top all the way down while burring their heads in the sand and claiming the sky is not falling.
I guess you have labeled me a basher because I am out and posted my opinion that you guys need to stop fighting and because I posted my opinion that I believe the stock is heading for 20 cents or lower and all the fighting is not going to change that.
I guess I should have know that if I did not post something about pink balloons and roses then I would be attacked for my thoughts. If the stock races back to a dollar then great, if it comes down to book value then I will get back in. Not a big deal!!! For people that are so confident about your long position in this stock, you guys sure seem defensive and insecure. Like I said before, who do you guys think you are truly trying to convince.
Brad
All this arguing, wow!!! My thoughts are that if you are long in the stock and don't plan to sell no matter how low it drops then stop arguing with those that are out. Who are your really trying to convince, yourself or them. If you are extremely long then you very well may get your money back but in the mean time, be happy for those who had the courage to sell and be happy for them because they have retained there cash and or gains.
Fighting among each other is not going to stop the stock from falling. Look at the MACD, the MACD shows no signs of stopping, the stock continues to fall with much more down pressure behind it as indicated by the MACD. The bulls were exhausted and the fact the stock closed down nearly 10% on what was one of the more positive PR by the company this past Tuesday is even more of an indication the bears are in full control. The stock is going to continue to fall. Even if the company put out a positive PR tomorrow morning, I assure you it will not retain any gains by the end of the day.
As many have already stated, the stock will most likely continue down until it hits 20 cents or just lower than that. If you plan to remain long for a very long time then hold and stop trying to defend the stock as it will do no good in the short term. If you can't stomach the fall then sell now and take the opportunity in the coming weeks to reload in the teens or twenties when the stock stops falling.
JMO,
Brad
Your message is what was in my mailbox, perhaps when a person responds to a post, a copy of it goes to their IHUB mailbox.
As to dismissing my post as hearsay, I gave you the information you needed, what you do with it is up to you. It is not that difficult.
Type www.google.com, search both "Surgutsky" as well as "Surgutsky Reserves". in those searches you will not find just one but many articles and financial filings made by other companies in which revenue is being recognized from Surgutsky oil producing properties along with refineries.
Sorry but I am not going to copy over 10's of 100's of links for you to read as there are so many, you probably would not read them all anyway.
Brad
sometimes_right - I got your mail but I can't respond privately with my IHUB account. All I had done was googled the names of the properties, Surgutsky had the most stuff pop up. I may have even googled "Surgutsky Reserves". Seems the names of those properties are like territories kind of like West Texas or Mojave Basin. Considering other companies were reporting revenue from those properties, seems like a piece of the puzzle that is open for anyone to get licensed like it would be possible for anyone to get a lease in West Texas.
It is not a big deal to me right now as I am out of the stock. I plan to get back in but I think the stock is going to offer much better entries in the coming weeks. I thought yesterdays PR was great as it cleared up the very thing that sent the stock into a sell off from 60 cents. To see the stock quickly bounce back into the 60's after the PR and then head south as quick as it rose to finish the day down nearly 10% did not look good in the short term. Considering great news like what was released yesterday can't move the stock then I believe the bears have full control of the stock for now. You may not see me post much for a while but I will likely be back and will continue to check in on the board each evening.
Brad
I am off to bed, I'll see you guys tomorrow.
And I quote you -
"To be honest with you, until they hire an english speaking person, I will always be uncertain as to the "True" meaning of their releases..."
I could not agree more. I myself and certain the reserves did not include NDOL's but I am not clear as to if the proven reserves are for the territory or just our stake. Like I said, I have found other companies reporting participation and revenue from the territories but I haven't yet found any geologist estimates as to the reserves of each of those territories. I figure if I find that info then it will clear up the PR for me.
Brad
cynic2005, you have continued posting after my earlier question but have not addressed my question. Does this mean you are uncertain at this time as to what the numbers truly represent?
Brad
brentjanice, I appreciate your response and like I said before, I can interpret it two different ways. I think if the reserves were here in the US, in an area where we are familiar with territory and the meaning of words in the language, I think it would be a little clearer.
Brad
cynic2005 or anyone, have you done any DD on the properties released in the PR's today. The wording I felt was vague and could be interpreted two different ways.
The wording could be interpreted as North West having the sole rights to reserves in the amount of 208 million barrels or it can be interpreted as North West having two of many licenses issued to participate in a couple areas called Shalinsky and Surgutsky.
As you start to search the property names, you start find financial filings and such where there are other players already involved in these properties along with refineries already in place.
What I guess my question is here, do the millions of barrels spoke of in the PR represent what North West has the sole right to or does it indicate the total estimates of reserves in regions that others also have licenses in and are participating already. If these reserves are being worded in a way that is not truly representative then this puts a whole different spin of the value of the reserves.
Thanks,
Brad
Well, there you have it. There is your billion dollar valuation. If anything, I think 1.25 billion dollars was an understatement. I do seriously feel sorry for those who sold last week.
Brad
cynic2005 -
I appreciate your frustration but though it may be clear for you and it may be clear for myself, it may not be so clear to others. There can be variable reasons at this time for it to be clear to some and not to others.
Using myself as an example, I have not read all your posts and as a matter of fact this is the first post of yours I have read. Perhaps you have beaten the drum to death but I myself was not privy to spend hours on the boards last week nor do I frequent this board that often. Perhaps there are others in my shoes that were limited in time but on the other hand don't quite understand it all just yet. Because you have beaten it to death does not justify cutting them off from a little help because you yourself tire of the subject.
If someone needs a little help getting a clearer understanding and I am available to lend a helping hand then I cannot just turn away from them.
Brad
Sorry they didn't come out readable after the copy paste but here are the two links to reference.
From Nov. 2005 Filing
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001144204%2D05%2D037822%2Etxt&FilePath....
From May 2--6 Filing
http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FileName=0001144204%2D06%2D022374%2Etxt&FilePath....
RonnieD -
Thanks for providing your source. What I am looking at is the Asset list from NORD's SEC filings. In these two filing I use in my example in conjunction to the comments from the PR I used in my last post, NORD is not recognizing reserves or intangible assets. I don't know where the information generated in the recent PR but considering NORD has historically made it public knowledge they were not using those numbers in there 10Q reports, I suspect those numbers generated from North West. At this time, we have no idea what North West is considering intangible assets but should find out soon in the 8K.
Nords 10Q filed Nov 28th:
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and Cash Equivalents 10, 078
Receivables 199,515
Inventory 315,274
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Current Assets 524,867
Fixed Assets 10,001,994
Goodwill 4,762,020
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ASSETS 15,288,881
Nords 10 Q filed May 2006:
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and Cash Equivalents 26,297
Receivables 113,689
Inventory 478,170
R&D Refundable Tax Credits --
Other 24,207
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Current Assets 642,363
Fixed Assets 8,425,252
Goodwill 4,762,020
TOTAL ASSETS 13,829,635
RonnieD -
You wrote:
"And don't tell me about reserves value, etc.. it's included. It says so right on the audited, combined 10-Q."
Can you please point out to me where in the 10Q that was stated?
What I had previously found in the PR from Nov. 28th was the company clearly stating they were not recognizing the future revenue and value of their reserves. If at that time they were to recognize those reserves then the book value would have been $2. Below is a cut and paste from that PR. Asset value has not increase since that 10Q so I am convinced they still are not including it but if they begin recognizing revenue during June as they had stated, you will however see it on the next 10Q
"We can project similar results for the next quarters and project total revenue of our product and trading divisions to be approximately $19 million USD with EBITDA of approximately $8 million USD providing shareholders with $0.09 USD sales per share, $0.04 USD EBITDA per share and $0.01 USD per share of Net Income After Taxes and that without considering the production of our oil reserves. In addition, if we compare value for value, Nord Oil has 10% of the reserves of PetroKazakstan, which is valued at $4.4 Billion USD and therefore should translate in Nord Oil's value to be $440 million USD or $2.06 USD per share, making the current stock price truly undervalue," further added Mr. Makarov.
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/051129/0102392.html
I think where the confusion comes from is that people have to understand intrinsic value or hidden value behind the stock. In other words, I think the 1 Billion value is there but has not yet materialized in the SEC fillings do to the stringent SEC rules for asset recognition of proven and producing properties.
Brad
Information on the Assets -
On Nov 28th NORD reported to have assets in the amount of 15 million. On the most recent Quarterly report they reported assets in the amount of 13 million. As you can see here, they have not taken any recent great asset recognition since Nov 28th. Now read this PR I have attached and you will see they clearly state in black and white easy to understand English that they have not recognized the assets in their quarterly reports that they continue to tell us will boost our revenue in NDOL alone to 200 million annually in June.
Brad
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/051129/0102392.html
Press Release Source: Nord Oil International Inc.
Nord Oil Sales Reach $4.8 Million USD for the Quarter
Tuesday November 29, 8:00 am ET
MONTREAL--(MARKET WIRE)--Nov 29, 2005 -- Nord Oil International Inc. (Other OTC:NDOL.PK - News) announced today the results of its financial quarter ending September 30, 2005.
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Nord Oil International's sales reached $4,839,187 USD for the quarter with corresponding EBITDA of $1,987,329 USD and Net Income After Taxes of $320,327 USD. The company had total assets of $15,288,881 USD and Liabilities of $9,901,665 USD and Shareholders Equity of $5,387,216 USD. The listed assets did not include the company's oil reserves rights and licenses. It should be noted that Nord Oil International has a total of 48 million barrels of proven and probable reserves and expects production to start early 2006 but no later than 3rd quarter and projects productions of 2.3 million barrels in its first year.
"We are very satisfied with the results of the first quarter, since our product sales and trading assures a great foundation, which will be significant upon the start of our production," said Mr. Makarov, President of Nord Oil International Inc. "We can project similar results for the next quarters and project total revenue of our product and trading divisions to be approximately $19 million USD with EBITDA of approximately $8 million USD providing shareholders with $0.09 USD sales per share, $0.04 USD EBITDA per share and $0.01 USD per share of Net Income After Taxes and that without considering the production of our oil reserves. In addition, if we compare value for value, Nord Oil has 10% of the reserves of PetroKazakstan, which is valued at $4.4 Billion USD and therefore should translate in Nord Oil's value to be $440 million USD or $2.06 USD per share, making the current stock price truly undervalue," further added Mr. Makarov.
About Nord Oil International Inc.
Nord Oil International Inc. is a reporting publicly traded Oil & Gas junior producer, trading under the ticker symbol NDOL on the US Pinksheets market. Nord Oil International operates three wholly owned Russian subsidiaries; Nord Oil Products, Nord Oil Samara and NANA. Nord Oil's properties currently have a total of 33 million barrels of proven and probable reserves and the company plans to acquire additional properties and has an objective of 150 million barrels in proven and probable reserves.
Do any of you do any DD on a stock before investing. I can't give a good answer for the 340 million O/S on the top of the filling but it has been on all of them for the past year. I can't believe you guys are just now figuring this out and now making an issue of.
Brad