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Looking at the MSFT chart pattern, a selloff after earnings are announced looks to be the favored path (not my favored path, though). Thinking about going short RVSN to hedge some longs. There is no earnings risk (they came out yesterday), and they are a main supplier to MSFT's LiveMeeting. May be a good way to get exponential gains on a MSFT downdraft. Any thoughts?
FYI - Microsoft chart pattern appears to be a setup for a selloff for earnings tonight. Not what I want to see, but that's what I see.
Initially, it looks ugly out there. But what a great way fot the MM's to take out a bunch of stops. Tomorrow will tell the tale..
Taking a look at the longer picture, we win anyway. Thanks!
I thought a break of 2000 wouldn't adjust your model like that?
Zeev, is this your "bottom" before making a run at new highs? Or are the turnips seeing another dump to lower levels? TIA
Well..it most certainly has to happen now ZEEV. I'm fully loaded from a week ago LOL!
Bought AUDC at $12.09 with 1/2 SCMR I sold a few days ago.
Read my post to zeev - increased "commoditization of product" equals future margin pressure..
I expect the same result to happen to WEBX in a Q or two..
Lowest PE in the group, but with thier product being increasly "commoditized", the pressure on margins may indicate why it is trading at such a PE. Be careful. I'm actually mad beacause I saw it in the AM and was going to pull the trigger on a short into earnings. Missed the opportunity doing other stuff. Oh well..
Exactly what I expect to happen..the "has been movers" like SNDK will be getting haircuts due to margin pressures, and the not yet moved like our picks will be rotated into. Our time is arriving...
Still a possibility of a gap down tomorrow under 2000 to complete this consolidation. They are selling the NVLS, INTC earnings, but they will be buying the AMCC, VTSS, JDSU, BKHM, CIEN earnings for the next 3 weeks. As you said - time is running out..
I've been lurking on your board for a long time now and need your swing trading expertise. BKHM is about to break a triple bottom. Iy can easily go down 10% to the next support level, but I don't ever recall playing trades that have broke a stong bottom like that. If it does break, is it a tradeable swing trade to new highs in the next several months, or does the break create too much resistance to go back up. Have you played this scenario before? Thanks in advance..
BKHM - Can get flushed to $1.70-$1.75on this downturn. Will be buying more with both fists at the first print of $1.80.
I forgot that I sold 1/2 my SCMR yesterday. I will be praying on BKHM with these trading funds..
Looks like the bastard MM's want to take BKHM under $2.00 to force out some stops. Damn I wish I had more money.
Does a retrace to 1990 in a fast fashion (like 3-4 trading days), and then up strong fit into your model at all. It would seem to me that all the "gap fill" players are now in, and it would cause enough confusion for a final reload before taking on new highs..
You are right. It may be possible that we still have one more flush ahead of us, getting to about 1847 on the NAZ. I would not like to see that for sure, but staying out of margin will keep me fully invested.
What's your take on SCMR volume today. I am highly suspect of it. If it was going higher, we should have seen the volume rotation in the high $3's a few weeks ago, not today. I checked many charts and can't find anything silimilar to it. Since I've been trading for many years, and I'm not familiar with the pattern it is showing me, I had to remove 1/2 my position (which was primarily for trading anyway). We shall see what it has to offer, and I will put the results into my journal.
Good day to add BKHM, but all out of cash now ;(
SCMR volume pretty high today at the "bottom" of a pullback. I hope it's not the "top" before some news I don't want to hear hits the wires.
Interesting..CIEN is week today and SCMR now is holding it's own. Wonder if something is up..
This is far as we can pull back without having to go back under 1900 on the NAZ.. Crossing my fingers that it holds..
I don't think it matters. I'm trading according to the pattern I see the NAZ..Up 2 days, down 2-3 days, then up a ton to new highs. I will use my trading position to go long now, short Wednesday afternoon, then long over the weekend 50%, picking up the rest Monday morning in time for AMCC to report. Got a ton of it, as well as opticals that report the next week..
Good luck on your short. That's why we have a market! LOL!
Just so you know, when $35.45 is taken out on volume, there is no need for it to stop until it's in the 40's. Probably won't get there in 2 days, but 37-38 highly likely..
Good luck. Buying now at $35.15 before the CC..
We got our NVLS gift everyone. Give it a good conference call, and we should start a healthy uptrend that lasts until July..
Short NVLS on Wednesday afternoon after the INTC run.
What an easy long call. BOOM!!
Now time for the AH dip on NVLS to shake the tree, then...
Snagged more SCMR at $4.16 in the final minutes. Cost average now at $4.24 eom.
OK. Looks like 2 days up, 2-3 days down. End of week ends up right where we started. This is tradeable on the long and short sides though if your quick..
AMCC looking to close at high of day too..
SCMR and BKHM down on higher volume, but it's also a buy entry at this point. Typically see larger volume go through on pullbacks to accumulate as long as key supports are not broken. Both are still above key supports..
Just to amuse myself, I like to audit the Yahoo Board for strong sells before earnings announcements. Right now, 6 different handles screaming at the top of thier lungs what a piece of crap NVLS is...
Feels like massive accumulation going on right now. NVLS needs to set us off tonight, INTC tomorrow night. I suspect that we will probably only see 2 real nice up days now instead of 3, all which can be brought back to this line to shake the tree before the real move next week.
I will note this post and respond to it mid-week. FYI - I'm not always long, but you haven't been here since the opening of this board to find that out. Good luck to you...