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PHYH - loading up, indicators turning, could run next week
Had to be out for day, just got back in. Looks like PHYH didn't do too bad today.
May have to reset the GTC up a little more!
I was thinking that same thing, MOMO's crowd jumps in, PHYH is off to the moon!!
Public interest is growing and growing.......
PHYH does that, we should be in the .04's....or better..sweet!!
It may be a long time before we see the .01's again!! That's OK with me! Uuuuuuuup we goooooooo!
Yep, been playing this one for awhile, MM's have been keeping a thumb on it, probably loading up, I know it's not PHYH, company seems strong, did as much FA as I could find, never found any negitive. No RS after the restructure , speaks a lot for a pinky.
King, gonna hit 2000 posts soon, great board!!
I knew you would wake up when we started talkin' about ya..
I'm in the same boat, but was able to average down some..
I aint' got nothin left to sell...I may have borrow some $$ from King...if I had his money I'de burn mine..
I wish I had some more cash, I may have to sell a kidney.
I'm expecting a strong open in the morning...
Fantastic day!! See ya in the morning..
Yeah!!!!!!! Go PHYH!!!
We goin' to hit 2.6 Mil before close??
Nothin wrong with that..party time!
Glad you're back, ya don't want to miss this one!!
PHYH wakin' everybody up!!
Themuzicmen, going by past, you better be straped in when this thing decides to blow!!!
4God, we makin' money over here!!!
PHYH has been in the high .05's three times within the last several weeks, hang on we is going back up again!!!
Go PHYH, Yeah!!! I'll be ready for take off in the morning!!
King, I expected this afternoon pullback, we could see the .03's tomorrow!!!
Yep, just needed to wake up, chart is lookin' real good King!!!
PHYH, nice undervalued stock setting up for a good run....I'm loaded up and ready for take off!!! Da $$$$$$$$$$$ iz comin!!
Morning Dart, we goin' to be green today!!!!
Morning king, looks like PHYH is getting ready to take off again....I smell $$$$$$$$$$$$!!
Yep, everything starting to turn north, looks good....
Just keep right on moving up PHYH!!
Morning King, I'm looking for the $$$$$$ to start flowing...
PHYH, looking for a jump any day now...
Morning all......
PHYH......Robert L. Trinka, Chairman, President and CEO
Robert L. Trinka, MBA, FLMI, MHP – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, 30 years insurance industry executive management experience with provider sponsored health plans, managed healthcare administration, medical malpractice insurance, physician-owned insurers, insurance sales and marketing, claims settlement and litigation, general operations and program risk management. He is the founder and President of Healthcare Risk Partners, Inc., a specialized insurance services company. He has held senior executive positions with John Alden Financial Corporation, including business unit head of the Provider Markets Group; The Doctors Company; The Sullivan Group and Aon Corporation.
PHYH........
Phyhealth Releases Excerpt of Investment Opinion
Aug 30, 2006 2:22 PM
Business Editors/Health/Medical Writers/Insurance Writers
MIAMI--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 30, 2006--Physicians Healthcare Management Group, Inc. (Pink Sheets:PHYH) today released an excerpt of a "Fair Value" Investment Opinion study in which Presage Partners, a Florida-based research, consulting and advisory firm, which has been hired by Phyhealth to provide such services, conducted a "fair-value" opinion with respect to the price of the company's equity securities, for the benefit of the company, using its own research in conjunction with an analysis of Phyhealth's financial model. Management of Phyhealth has decided to issue an excerpt of this report (along with footnotes) for the benefit of its existing and potential shareholders.
A selected excerpt of the report is as follows:
"In order to determine a realistic "fair-value" price range for shares of PHYH in the short-term and long-term, we interviewed the Company's management extensively to clearly understand the Company's business model and to determine feasibility of the Company's financial models as well as revenue and earnings projections based on a 5-year roll-out of the Company's 9 proposed community-based Phyhealth (HMO) Plans. A series of Executive interviews revealed that, in reality, the Company's financial models were developed based on HMO actuarial and financial models developed by Wakely Consulting Group, a highly regarded consulting actuary and healthcare specialist firm with offices in Clearwater, FL. The Wakely Group conducts a sizable portion of the Florida HMO, Medicare Advantage and Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Benefit actuarial work. Also, the firm regularly works with physician groups, who have capitated risk, which makes the Wakely Group uniquely suited to determine and develop realistic HMO models for a company in Phyhealth's position.(1)
Additionally, the Company utilized an independent actuarial and financial model developed by Mark J. Sobel, FCAS, MAAA of Financial Risk Analysts, LLC, for Physhield Insurance Exchange, a Risk Retention Group, Phyhealth's exclusive medical malpractice insurer. Mr. Sobel is a leading national expert in medical professional liability and a MIMS International Preferred Provider.(2)
The Company's use of independent HMO and Medical Malpractice models further satisfies our "stress test" with respect to the preparation of Phyhealth's financial models, and in fact, the Physhield model was instrumental in Phyhealth's affiliate, Physhield Insurance Exchange, being approved for its Certificate of Authority by the state of Nevada Department of Insurance and by the Insurance Commissioners of the states of Florida and Texas to underwrite medical professional liability business.
Based on these satisfactions, we used Phyhealth's projected financials and prepared Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Net Present Value (NPV) calculations to illuminate two share price scenarios:
Scenario A-
A conservative short-term "fair value" estimate with allowances for an extremely high Discount Rate or Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 40% in the near-term, which is in line with the aggressive nature of financings and/or cost of debt and/or equity instruments issued by and for typical Micro Capitalization public companies, along with a discounted multiple on future earnings (P/E) of 10, which is also more commensurate with that of typical Micro-Capitalization public companies.
Scenario B-
An aggressive, but justifiable, long-term "fair value" estimate based on a more normalized Discount Rate / (WACC) of 12% over the Medium and Long-Term, which is typical for more mature businesses, along with an earnings multiple (P/E) of 19, which is commensurate with Mid-to-Large Capitalization public companies with businesses comparable to that projected by Phyhealth.(3)
Each Scenario reflects a 120% Internal Rate of Return (IRR) over 5 years with respect to, and in connection with, the following current and future assumptions:
-- 280,000,000 Current Issued and Outstanding Common Shares.
-- $1,500,000 in initial financing the company will need in order to facilitate the development of its model over the next 5 years.(4)
-- Constant net margins of 15% after the 5th year of operation.(5)
-- Present value of Phyhealth's 20% future ownership stake in each of nine proposed community-based HMO's, collectively generating a projected $1.2 Billion in annual premium revenue and a cumulative $115 Million in projected Surplus and Retained earnings at the end of year 5.
-- $15 Million in projected annual earnings for Physicians Healthcare Management Group, Inc. by the end of year five of operations.(6)
The results of the "Fair-Value" Opinion were as follows:
Under Scenario .1:
A Net Present Value (NPV) of $4.7 million, based on the issuance of equity securities (only) necessary to meet the company's capital needs in the mid-to-long term at a 40% Discount Rate / WACC to the closing price of PHYH shares on Tuesday, August 29, 2006. The resulting shares issuance would increase the Company's total issued and outstanding shares to approximately 340 million shares outstanding. Employing an multiple of 10 (P/E) on projected earnings at today's NPV would yield a current "Fair Value" share price target of $.14, representing a 333% premium to Tuesday's closing price.
Under Scenario .2
A Net Present Value (NPV) of $19.1 million based on the issuance of equity securities (only) to meet the company's capital needs in the mid-to-long term at a 12% Discount Rate / WACC to the closing price of PHYH shares on Tuesday, August 29, 2006. The resulting shares issuance would increase the Company's total issued and outstanding shares to approximately 320 million shares outstanding. Employing an multiple of 19 (P/E) on projected earnings at today's NPV would yield a current "Fair Value" share price target of $1.13, representing a 2690% premium to Tuesday's closing price.
Summary
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Net Present Value (NPV) calculations, based on interviews with the Company's management about the prospects for growth as well as the company's projected financial performance over the next 5 years suggest our conservative short-term "fair-value" target of $.14 per share is justifiable. Notwithstanding our conservative short-term "fair-value" calculation, under our second, and more aggressive, long-term "fair value" scenario, suggests that a share price of $1.13 is justifiable. While it is our assertion that our short-term "fair value" target is inherently realistic, many factors exist that could result in shares of PHYH attaining, surpassing or never reaching the stated "fair value" target(s). Furthermore, obvious risks are inherent in micro-cap companies which could prevent the Company from remaining as an ongoing concern.
Footnotes
(1) For more information please visit http://www.wakelyconsulting.com.
(2) For more information please visit http://www.mimsintl.com.
(3) Projected Earnings Multiple (P/E) of 19 is based on a non-capitalization weighted average of P/E Ratios for the following equity securities on a trailing twelve month basis as of the market close on Tuesday, August 29, 2006: UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), WellPoint, Inc. (NYSE:WLP), Aetna (NYSE:AET), CIGNA Corporation (NYSE:CI) and Humana (NYSE:HUM).
(4) Each community-based HMO requires roughly $4 Million in start-up capital and surplus to initiate operations, which will come from its constituent doctors and project finance investors, and as such will not adversely impact the company's current capital structure (a/k/a share dilution).
(5) Management asserts they are fairly certain that room will exist for margin expansion as the Company progresses closer to its 5-year projections.
(6) Only year five is taken into account for our valuation Scenarios.
The following Disclosure Statement was issued in conjunction with the public release of this excerpt.
Presage Partners LLC has been engaged by Physicians Healthcare Management Group, Inc. (hereinafter "Phyhealth") and has been compensated with common shares, from the company to provide consulting, advisory and research services. Presage Partners currently owns approximately 4 million common shares, which can be sold, in part or in whole, at any time. As such, an inherent conflict of interests exists with respect to this report even though it was prepared in earnest. Additionally, typical Safe Harbor related issues pertain to this report, not limited to the fact that Management of Phyhealth must execute in accordance with their financial models and business projections for any opinion contained in this report to even potentially hold merit. Please review the Safe Harbor Statement below, and as always, conduct your due diligence.
About Physicians Healthcare Management Group, Inc.
Phyhealth develops and operates fully integrated healthcare organizations in partnership with physicians. Phyhealth Plans preserve the physician-patient relationship and deliver high-quality affordable healthcare within its selected communities. Phyhealth offers a turnkey, prepaid health plan solution to physicians for their Medicare and other individual patients who prefer to choose their own doctor and who make their own healthcare insurance purchasing decisions. Phyhealth Plans are unique in integrating all aspects of the delivery and financing of care, including providing medical liability insurance protection through Physhield Insurance Exchange, Phyhealth's exclusive risk retention group. The Phyhealth model empowers physicians to proactively manage their patient's general health and medical care and enhances physician financial rewards by increasing practice revenues, reducing expenses and restoring the economic value (equity) of their medical practices.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains statements, which may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements include statements regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of Physicians Healthcare Management Group, Inc., and members of its management as well as the assumptions on which such statements are based. Prospective investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes to future operating results.
For further information, go to the Company's website at: http://www.phyhealth.com or contact Robert Trinka, CEO, to discuss Financial Projections that are the basis of this excerpt.
CONTACT: Physicians Healthcare Management Group, Inc., Miami
Robert Trinka, 305-779-1760
rtrinka@phyhealth.com
Agree, I've been married to PHYH for about 2 months, doesn't take much to move it, wasn't too long ago when it held steady at .035 w/ almost zero V, MM's keeping a thumb on it right now, we should be on the bottom, need a good PR to bump it...but it's coming...
Wanna HMO or Malpractice????
Morning all.........
Hey king, PHYH should be on bottom now, looking for a run any day, need a PR to shoot it to the moon!!