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Dew You are right, I was not precise. Let me rephrase. Do you see a high likelihood of a marriage between GTCB and Pharming at this point in time. It just seemed to me that GTCB always wanted to stay independent (from everyone including BP) but that ideal would have been easier to achieve when the stock was above 1.00 and raising funds presumably would be easier. Now that GTCB is under pressure with perhaps 5 months of operating funds left, the realities of maintaing operations would force some alliances they previously might not have entertained,(or perhaps always did anyway), the most obvious of which seems to me to be Pharming with so much for each to gain. This potential marriage seem almost inevitable and if we could glean some sense of the odds of this logical outcome happening, I think it would prop up the optomism quotient on this board. TIA for your thoughts on this. Regards, bp
Likewise and thank you.
I think its from "shotgun wedding" Now there's your deal. bp
Dew, At this point in the running do you see a higher chance of a Pharming/GTCB merger? Pharming's got the honey and GTCB has the bees. It would allow for a European and an American base. Both are in the same business and understand the issues at hand and both realize the scope of transgenic medications possible. They currently are hardly competitors and a marriage would increase the value of both stocks especially with the promise of a sustainable GTCB that would bring in major milestone payments. For Pharming, the access to GTCB patents would avoid the cross license issue. Pharming has the dough to support GTCB operations until phase II DIC data. Separate locations of operations spreads the risk of PETA problems or G-d forbid infections. I realize these are not new or original ideas as we discussed most of these issues when you were taking a poll to see who thought what about impending partnerships, but now given the current need for cash it seems like a wise idea to merge IP (which should be VERY attractive to Pharming) in return for sustainability and the potential for great returns. Would there be a monopoly issue? As if. I think both stocks would skyrocket on such an announcement. Reverse split be damned!! Regards to all, bp
Aside from the FOBs the only thing left is CD 137. Since Merrimack needs AFP and just raised 60 mil, anyone think they will go for 137 not only for its intrinsic value but also as a way to insure gtcb's health re afp? Dr. Cox spoke of potential for MULTIPLE partnerships. Maybe there a dance in the old dame yet. Go goats. Please. bp
Dew, do you think there is enough financial muscle on this board-- lurkers or just current stock owners to commit to a monthly subscription for one year at current stock levels to support operations until say a major milestone payment? Is that ever really done? bp
Johnbits, don't take it so hard. It has been interesting to read your points made on this board and as the final chapter is far from written here it will be interesting and perhaps costly to see how things play out. Dew has an extraordinary mind and his analysis always intersting and his insight trenchant. His catalogue of the read me first section has been a great service to us all, and naturally many look to him for advice. I believe he feels (and I would never begin to speak for him, he can sure do that for himself as you have found), that he feels the strength of the science is so strong, that as supported well by the compendium of research papers noted in RMF, it in itself will carry the day and some source of revenue will be smart enough to see it. I think this is why he in general sticks to the science for discussion purposes and not so much the finances which although he grasps plenty well, kryptonite or not, does not seem to be running in parallel with the acomplishments of this company. Timeing is everything and we are about a year too early for FOBs, medical cost containment in the forefront of politics etc to drive this stock. I hope you will continue to post and I hope Dew will allow you to do so without too much judgement. bp
Dew, you must admit that you have been sanguine in the face of the recent price meltdown even to the point of buying Crou's shares! Who is in a state of denial or am I missing something? If I am truly missing something (besides a marble here and there) please help me find it!! The conference was probably not too well attended as it sounded like the moderator and perhaps one other person clapping at the end.
Will US approval of Atryn bring milestones and how much from Ovation? bp
Jesse, I suspect you allude to Tysabri in your last line but I think ELN has adequete production facilities using their current technology. Can you speculate as to the ace? bp
You have cajones of steel. bp
Jesse, thank you for your reply. It is not my intent to sow fear, the situation does not need my help for that! Its just that concern is justified and your analysis is reasurring. Nonetheless, if people were buying we would not be at .37. Regards, bp
Flo, could be there are no insider buys because they don't want to! Lets hope they just can't due to a pending partnership announcement. bp
Jesse, Your sense that the company will not go bankrupt is based on what? Yes they have great partners but as you have said only a few months to run and continue to try to get partnerships. Even with the most energetic and sincere efforts GTCB has only a few months cash left. If no new partnerships what then? As my Grandfather of blessed memory used to say "no money? No money." The fear is real that a takeover or a fire sale might happen. If we could know for sure bankruptcy was not possible I would buy as much as I could even (especially) now. I used to think the DOD via Pharmathene, the government of France via LFB would be great guarantors but now I am concern the sharks are circling. If a "restructuring" were to occur the stockholders would take it in the shorts. This happened to me with Global Crossing and they restructured and emerged to continue to do business but the original stockholders lost everything. Even with the r/s they could raise money and perhaps hang on until US approval or DIC phase II results but with no money in the bank any financing even with a r/s would be less than favorable for us. What do you think? Regards, bp
So who held up the fingers? And what was the context? Serious replies only. Actually I'm glad someone's kept their sense of humor during this meltdown. bp
Flo would you mind reiterating in detail what you saw of the body language of the LFBers and your interpretation of it? Thanks bp
A belated thanks for your answer, Dew. I see two potential near term events that could generate some dough. One would be positive results form Merrimack and a new agreement to supply drug for Phase III study (I raised the question as to whether one to just go to a phase IV after market study if the drug were safe and really effective...)the other is a CD 137 partnership. Besides a surprise (not likely)do you see anything else? Am resigned to the R/S and just hope the dilution isnt too bad. What would you rate the chances of an actual bankrupcy/fire sale at this point? We are SO close to greatness. I know they must want to stay alive for the Phase II DIC study results but many hints of slow enrollement make this less likely to be the driver. A dramatically positve AFP RA study would help but not move us much with out some additional $ infusion. So much uncertainty. Happy fourth to all. bp
Does anyone think there will be any new announcements between now and the RS? Dr. Cox mentioned news he hoped would spur the stock price. So far we have the fibrinogen license and our American Atryn partner. Presumably these nice announcements were the ones. bp
Lewis, would that it could be so, especially tysabri! bp
Dew, you are correct as usual but its just that when they announced the albumin program, I bought, when they announced the malaria program I bought, when they announced the Atryn program (the first time, I guess it didn't have a trade name then) I bought. And I never sold and was always a little surprised when these "false starts" never amounted to too much at least so far, 10 years later! Thanks for your reply. bp
If it were a firing I doubt he would have 4 weeks notice. If there is bad blood, access to computers, goats, other employees (eg bad mouthing) would normally be limited by a much earlier departure. I'll bet he is leaving on fairly good terms and I doubt the single issue of his poor timed and poorly executed insider sale was the cause. bp
Sooner would be good! My point is other than Dr. Cox answering a question during a presentation, probably from Dew, we never have a way of know whether "GTC commitment to develop..." is a commitment in fact or just a cyber commitment that is announced with great fanfare (read I bought more stock when the "commitment" to the malaria vaccine was announced...)only to later dissapear into the mists of the back burner with no knowlege of it by folks like me. bp
Flo I agree. Especially since the trial was continued in open label fashion which means I think that patients enrolled can continue to have access to the drug. Correct me anyone if this is not correct. My question is that if safety and efficacy endpoints are met, and say for the sake of argument that the study was DRAMATICALY positive, could the FDA forego a phase III and go say to a post market study (phase 4)? Here's another hypo, if the Phase II DIC trial shows statistical significance before the study ends, would it have to be completed or could Atryn be marketed or again evaluated with a phase 4, skipping the need for a phase three study. Dr. Cox has already laid the groundwork for dissappointingly slow enrollement in the DIC study. bp
Flo, I think its the other way around, the Gates Foundation might consider funding for GTCB. The last bit of funding I think was NIH and led to primate testing with good results. For years we have been waiting for the Gates Foundation to acknowledge the malaria program at GTCB. One of the Foundations stated aims (I think) is the eradication of Malaria. Nu? How about it Bill! bp
That's right. Its back there with the malaria vaccine. We hear about new programs but rarely when they are discontinued like the buzz years ago re the antiangiogenesis effect of Atryn like substances. Lots of buzz and announcements at inception but no indication when the program was not persued. Although I suppose it too could be on the "back burner". bp
Dew, Surely you are not suggesting the stock might rise to 2.00 between now and the RS. That would take J and J partnering for CD-137 and Teva signing on for all the follow ons. If only. bp
According to my hosp pharmacy cost of Argratroban 2200 and Refludan aprox 900 per dose for 24 hours or less. I suspect this is without the usual hospital mark up but don't know for sure. Its a long way from Atryn (in HD) 20,000. bp
Just back from vacation and listened to annual meeting call. Probably already discussed but was anyone struck by the absence of mention of MM 093? Looks like were are still alive and should make it to 2009. Was there mention of the reverse split? Regards to all, bp
I for one cannot believe that Dr. Cox is lying and would support management. bp
What advantage do you see in voting no?
Dew, et al. Can we assume enough votes have been cast to approve the reverse split? Difficult (and maybe exciting) times...regards, bp
Yes, I see that my post ended up there and not here. Best, bp
Dew, thanks for your very kind and complete reply re my note of June 1st. I found the reply in my mailbox but not on the general board. Anyway it was a very complete look at the issue and I thank you for taking the time and effort to do that for me. Regards, bp
Dew, will this have bearing on your MNTA holdings? Sorry for the slightly OT. bp
Fair enough EOM
Jesse--Doubt the razzle dazzle here. Anyone who wanted shares on the cheap could have slowly bought, how much, 500,000 in 10 to 20,000 block trades over the last three or four weeks without raising the share price much even without the razzle dazzle. Maybe jb wants it cheaper or more plentiful. Doubt either will be the case. Did you read the shareholder letter of May 5th? First of all it was the cheapest presentation ever, flimsy paper, no gloss, no nice corporate pictures. I thought that was great! They are trying to conserve. Why? Because they intend to survive and prosper (and we along with them!) Dr. Cox thanks us for our support and says that 2008 should be a very exciting year. He looks forward to updating us on...etc. He did not sound a cautionary note but has continued to point out the low risk associated with our production platform. IMHO GTCB will deliver. Comments from johnbits will not shake my shares lose. Opps I meant loose. (I've been taking spelling lessons from you.) Regards, bp
Hi Jesse, What better source than Dr. Cox himself who has as much said that we are talking to one or more partners. I perhaps naively think of the US government (via Pharmathene) as one holder of the GTCB "insurance policy" and the other being the French government via LFB, pretty good indirect partners with a lot to lose if GTCB goes under. They among others want us to succeed. Flo says the MM-093 has no or few side effects and the study continues in open label fashion. This too should tell us something, that being that patients WANT to continue to have access to the drug and are willing to continue in the study. I am with you in concluding that Dr. Cox is a man of honor and ability and will come through. Call me a putz.
There is a poster on YMB FWIW claiming NEJM article re ATIII and MI, did I miss this? No reference was provided. bp
True enough.
Dew, I was thinking of the collective gasp we felt when Woloschen and Lipovsky sold shares in the face of Dr. Cox's "unprepared remarks" a few months ago about the market's perception of the value of the stock and the soliditiy of senior management in their support of their shareholders. Since these two are not BOD members I was curious as to whether the nuts and bolts negiotiations could have taken place without their being privy to details. I realize though from previous comments on this board particularly with regard to Mr. Woloschen as general council that he of course would know EVERY detail of any proposed contract (yet he still sold) so I guess my perception that the some general knowlege of the partnership, the who and how, might not be available to senior management (but limited to Dr. Cox and BOD) is not correct. Anyway as always thanks for your continued updates and very professional management of this board. Regards, bp