JPS is still under severe pressure. Scotus is next major catalyst event ...

Skeptic - JPS is a quagmire trade ... really all you need to remember ...

Guido, I know you remember Mnuchin and Powell saying during a financial committee quarterly Q&A where Mnuchin and Powell said they would look into Calabria's excessive capital rule.

I think Mnuchin left Calabria at the alter and he is now becoming a punchline also ... Giggity ... Giggity ...

All you had to say was “quagmire.”

Potty, that boat has sailed and the market is speaking. There was a chance while Trump was in but this whole "predatory restructuring" nonsense and "taking Mnuchin and Calabria at their word because words matter" is not a sound investment thesis.

Especially now that Trump, Mnuchin and Calabria are/will be gone. The financial play comes long after the legal and political play.

The JPS investors thought they had the political position won, but they didn't. Now the legal side is front and center, which will push the political play in one direction.

The question becomes how long for the political play to reach its destination.

THEN, and only then, can the financial question can be answered.

You guys are again caught behind a financial tree without seeing the legal and political forest ...

Even with the warrants and a methodical plan to continue to raise capital under Biden and Yellen, with a PE of 15 we are still in the $30 range.

JPS Shares are a quagmire ... you went from a 5:1 ratio to a 2.5:1 ratio and soon to be a inverse ...

JPS quagmire!

Quagmire ...

Who was that boutique investment firm in the midwest who wrote analysis saying JPS would be converted? Probably kids of dad who gav’em the firm and they made a colossal mistake.

*sigh* what a joke!

His back office ... big diff

JPS shares are dead for a long time - continually be sold and rotated into commons for the upcoming Scotus decision ...

JPS got headfake setup on low volume to sucker in more suckers before the rug is pulled out for lower lows over the coming days. The JPS quagmire trade continues ...

Donot - you disagree with a top tier litigator (Thompson) with an incredible pedigree from a top tier law firm that has plenty of support staff and expertise to accurately perform arithmetic?

I’m sorry your JPS “quagmire” investment was predicated on erroneous intel.

Does Tim P's back office post here?

JPS still doing a post mortem on their failed, quagmire of an investment - I get they feel betrayed. Mnuchin saying over and over again, Calabria and his rubber chicken soap box, Trump’s directive.

But in the end the rug was pulled out from underneath and they are now stuck in a quagmire trade ...

The question is when does 2:1 ratio happen? A couple weeks?

haha!

Giggidy .... Giggidy .... Goo ...

Glen Quagmire ...

DoNot - Here is the fax. JPS didn't bake this into their equation and now see the "quagmire" trade they are in, which even Tim Howard former CFO of the GSEs called the JPS trade, e.g., FNMAS, FNMAM, etc., as a complete and utter "quagmire" with apparent no bottom in sight.

Per Thompson at SCOTUS - Crystal clear

Learn it ...

"that anything above that be treated as a paydown of principal on the government's liquidation preference"

Know it ...

"And if you do the math, the government's been paid back in toto plus 10 percent interest and there's 29.5 billion dollars left over."

Live it ...

"we're asking to go back and have the overpayments, over and above the $18.9 billion, to be treated as a pay down of principal. And that would essentially deem the government paid back."

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=161382161

Pollard graduated undergrad in 1971 at probably age 22. Fast forward 50 years he is now 72.

He was not fired ... what nonsense ...

Calabria is gone in a couple months and the Cap Rule is coming down.

More facts pointing to the JPS "quagmire" trade ...

Donot - I answered your question several weeks ago to the post I am replying and now you are asking the same question again. Why? Here are excerpts from SCOTUS oral arguments, which is the latest "update" from the distinguished Mr. Thompson. I bolded and highlighted key sections so it is plain as day what is being asked for by Commons and JPS. Liquidation Preference is in play. Consider yourself educated now ... I'm sorry your JPS trade was predicated on bad intel.

Pages 69 to 70

Golf - not interesting at all and understood 15 min after reading the latest LA. It is all Scotus and if a favorable rulling happens the “string theory” is proven and everything else is academic arithmetic, just a function of time probably being until Biden is up for reelection ...

Another item that really wasn’t addressed as explicitly as it should’ve been was the liquidation preference to 0. It doesn’t seem ROLG wanted to distinguish between liquidation pref and $124 billion overpayment ...

ROLG seems to be distinguishing between LP and $s returned, but it is not clear if the LP to 0$ and $s returned.

LP to 0$ is a game changer. Significant $s on top of that is huge ...

That was a factually accurate recap of where we are.

One note is we may essentially get two bights at the apple in the sense we may have full or partial retrospective relief (2012 to 2014 acting vs confirmed director) via the constitutional claim and possibly the 2012 to 2014 delta as a takings at the Court of Federal Claims.

If SCOTUS abhors judicial waste, they may handle this now to save schedules at the CoFC and 5th Circuit venues.

Interesting times ...

Holden -

Holden -

JPS "Quagmire" trade continues ...

Liquidation Pref to 0 destroys all CBO analysis and JPS analysis ... funny ... if liquidation pref goes to 0, I bet Biden holds onto the twins to push affordable housing ... JPS will get to take a bicycle a few stops while commons will get to take the train across country ...

JPS, e.g., FNMAS, is definitely a "Quagmire" trade like Tim Howard, the former CFO of the GSEs, said. I feel bad for investors who followed those seekingalpha articles ...

JPS is showing it is a Quagmire trade ...

Estimation on when it hits 2:1 ratio and then 1:1 ratio ... Any prognostications?

Stock, yep, sending reddit boys as much fnma stuff i can muster ...

Haha - I guess my correspondence with the reddit boys and sending them the Bill Ackman link may have paid dividends ... we shall see ...

Eternal - i’d expect JPS to be moving also if something leaked but jps are going further down ... maybe someone got spooked by the reddit guys and suspects investigations into books ... or scotus is going to happen but folks still see a long slog for JPS while commons price to a discounted p/e until exiting cship, meaning the 10$ scenario of ackman ... I do find it quite strange that JPS hasn’t moved. Let’s see how correlated commons and jps are tomorrow...

GseHeist - the Freddie was an 11million share buy while the Fannie was unknown, but since Freddie was a buy Fannie was probably a buy ... if that is an investor that is very large given average daily volume over past 3 years ...

That one was a buy - stands to reason the 20 million was a buy also ... interesting times ...

I’m sending out feelers to those retail momo guys ... we’ll see ...

So we can’t speak to a trade that is higher than almost every single day’s daily total volume for the past almost 4 years?

Yep, I guess we’ll learn more tomorrow.

iLost ...