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FNMAT was offered to the public on May 13, 2008 by a underwriting syndicate led by Merrill Lynch. 80,000,000 shares were issued at $25 per share raising $ 2 billion of new capital for FNMA.
https://fanniemae.gcs-web.com/static-files/d2ff8e7f-ff59-479f-ad54-fe135914569c
Remember the Jason Thomas Memo regarding the Barron's article where he stated that GSE shareholders would get wiped was on March 8, 2008 nearly two months before the FNMAT offering. Did Merril Lynch know about the Jason Thomas Memo? Jason Thomas was the Special Advisor to GWB as part of the NEC and the Memo was written to the Under Secretary of the UST.
Maybe Mike Kelly also purchased some FNMAT from Merrill Lynch?
I also purchased FNMAT on the new issue in an IRA - the GSEs were not penny stocks - the JPS was issued at $25 per share and was a multi-billion dollar offering with a large underwriting syndicate
Growth Fund of America is a 529 investment option under the Commonwealth of Virginia 529 plans. It not only was one of the largest investors in GSE common it had a sizeable position in GSE JPS. Remember that the GSES sold billions of JPS between April and September of 2008 including FNMAT. Like many institutional investors and retail investors there was an expectation that the JPS capital raise would provide enough capital for the developing MBS market dislocation and that is why they acting as fiduciaries purchased the JPS on the new issue. All together between common and JPS the GSEs were a sizable position in a diversified portfolio.
Thank you for your service Commander - and all others who served our Country!! Lets not forget the over 1 million Americans who have given their lives for our enduring freedom. God Bless all who continue to suffer from physical and mental injury due to their bravery and duty on behalf of America!!
Hi Robert Seems like the chickens are coming back to roost - big deficits and higher interest rates used to be a real concern back in the day. Dont know about a full guarantee but it may just become an necessity to get the GSEs properly capitalized in the next couple of years and generate 100 to 300 bn in revenues for the UST? Isnt 100 to 300 bn in revenue still a material revenue generator in a budget cycle?
Thanks Navy! Thanks Robert! Really interesting dialogue between Ackman and his PM. Ackman also talked about a new SPAC and more to come. I would say that anyone who does not think Ackman cares about how common shareholders are being treated is probably wrong based off his conversation. He really gets it and is big enough to be a catalyst at the right time.
Maybe we should be just resigned to buying GSE JPS and common for our children and grandchildren. The inevitable end of our personal investment terms may be less than the inevitable exit from Conservatorship.
Really Interesting Commander - Thanks! Need to think this through but another reason to get the GSEs capitalized as soon as possible before interest rates rise so much that having the GSEs on the de facto balance sheet of the UST becomes a credit rating issue.
We need the Mike Kelly lawsuit to get Cert. Probably wont but it has the most compelling facts to challenge the Conservatorship
Thanks Familymang - Calcutt had about 5 Amicus for Cert which was interesting.
Is there a possibility of Amicus Briefs being filed now?
Hi Clark6290 - what did you hear today that indicates Glenn is right about anything? ST said there had been no discussions at all - no grand plan to cramdown common or any discussions on exit. Glenn - did you hear anything to confirm your impending common cramdown extravagancy? According to ST - there have been no discussions?
Glenn - you may be right or you may be wrong and common will be entitled to 20% of the fully diluted market value in the end. It is possible that the SPS and Liquidation Preference will be voided as a separation of powers remedy and you need to acknowledge that possibility. You can assess a low probability to the voiding of the Liquidation Preference but you are being disingenuous if you dont - especially because you seem to want to impress everyone with your apparent good intentions in letting common shareholders know the risk of extreme dilution.
Thanks Robert - seems like a lot of wasted Amicus interest for a relatively narrow SCOTUS Opinion. Looking forward to Amici input on the Rop Cert petition.
Thanks Familymang
SCOTUS ruled for Mr. Calcutt saying that the 6th Circuit erred in not remanding the case but SCOTUS did not rule on seperation of powers issues. Probably a negative? or was it the wrong case and wrong time? It is a "per curriam" opinion of SCOTUS where Cert was granted and a short per curriam Opinion was rendered in today's Orders only on the FDIC issue.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/052223zor_k5fm.pdf
Waiting for Rop Cert decision - maybe this summer?
See Pace of Grants for possible Cert decision
https://www.scotusblog.com/statistics/
Definitely not a chicken in our pot - this is why to stock prices are so low - everyone is cynical, skeptical ect and for many good reasons!!
GOP may be waiting for a proposed JB Admin Action to respond to? Probably nothing will happen but it does seem clear that the GOP will use the proposed mortgage subsidy as a campaign issue. It is hard not to be cynical so perhaps we need SCOTUS to invalidate these Agencies and require Congress to fix the separation of powers issues. Maybe the new legislation is going to front run the separation of powers fix?
May 24th Hearing to Markup new Legislation on Financial Regulatory Oversight
https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=408805
Markup of the Increasing Financial Regulatory Accountability and Transparency Act, the Middle Class Borrower Protection Act of 2023, H.R. 2622, H.R. 1553, H.R. 3063, H.R. 2627
Wednesday, May 24, 2023 10:00 AM in 2128 RHOB
Full Committee
Director Thompson to testify on FHFA oversight before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday - here is the Committee Memo - no discussion about Exit in Memo:
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/BA/BA00/20230523/116003/HHRG-118-BA00-20230523-SD001.pdf
Glenn - why do you assume that common shareholders do not understand the points you have been making over and over and over? Everyone understands the risks outlined in the CBO Scenarios - it really is a matter of risk v return. The SPS could get wiped or reduced by a Separation of Powers remedy or a political resolution and the UST can realize its equity via the warrants. We need to see how Rop, Collins and Bhatti play out to see what the final UST negotiating strength will be. Bottom line is that if the JB Admin wanted legal certainty to push the Utility Model they would write down the JPS and rely on their warrants - they could go forward with a cramdown but they would run the risk that the whole Admin action would fail because of a future SCOTUS ruling.
Sounds like a MQD Student Loan type lawsuit is brewing?
A new home buyer who had to pay more for their mortgage could sue under the Major Question Doctrine like the Student Loan cases before SCOTUS now? We probably should be expecting this suit in the next year or so which will be joined by the House GOP.
Exiting and restructuring the GSEs in the Utility Model Framework could insulate the Dems initiatives since they would be outside the realm of the FHFA administrative discretion.
Exit is the Answer
Thanks for the insight whomarjb - seems intuitively correct to me. Dont you think the House GOP has to make a choice between pushing for an exit and have some control over future housing policy vs just leaving control and the piggy bank with the JB Adm for the next 2 to 6 years potentially?
Hi Robert, Thank you for all your insight regarding this Amicus brief for the CFPB case. There does seem to a clear link and a lot of stakeholders analyzing the sequencing and precedence of the CFPB case before SCOTUS and the Appropriation clause issues with Collins before the 5th Circuit.
The judicial roadmap does seem to be narrowing and it is up to SCOTUS to start putting forks in the Road with the CFPB case and potentially Rop and Calcutt if it so chooses.
Thanks for pointing that out. It looks like he has been at the HPC for six years.
Do you think this is a nothingburger?
How about 9/16 odds which is the likely En Banc majority in the 5th Circuit.
DeMarco HPC Mission Statement:
https://www.housingpolicycouncil.org/mission
Excerpt:
HPC’s strategic plan covers a limited number of critical issues, including: restoring the private market to expand the level of private capital and introduce effective risk controls into the marketplace; modernizing the government agencies involved in housing finance, such as FHA, to expand each agency’s capacity to fulfill its mission and manage risk; reformulating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to remove the public-loss and private-gain model that added substantial risk to the housing finance system; developing a sustainable approach to expanding affordable housing opportunities that will reach historically underserved segments of our population; and cultivating a market environment that encourages and enables responsible innovation.
Jason Thomas Special Advisor to GWB at the NEC March 8, 2008 Memo:
https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-docs/2008-03-08_Treasury_Email_from_Hason_Thomas_to_Robert_Steel_Re_Source_document_for_Barrons_article_on_FNM.pdf
Excerpt:
Government Bailout Is Necessary, Likely, And Potentially Helpful
Fannie Mae is demonstrably a failed social experiment. A realistic assessment of its balance sheet shows
its net worth to be overstated by tens of billions of dollars and the company to be already insolvent.
Even with all its accounting legerdemain, Fannie's losses are an accelerating horror show, with
shareholders losing $1.5 billion in 07Q3 and $3.7 billion in 07Q4. Those losses are just the beginning.
As shareholder capital gets wiped, the government will have no choice but to seize the company and
place it in conservatorship or receivership. Importantly, mortgage-backed security holders guaranteed
by Fannie Mae will see no losses. The government will likely allow debt holders to fare okay, with either
no or token losses, perhaps 1%.
Shareholders, both common and preferred, are likely to be left with nothing. However, these
shareholder losses have already been locked in by the company's credit decisions over the past few
years and cannot be helped. It must be remembered that Fannie is the biggest mortgage risk holder in
the biggest mortgage crisis.
A fully government-owned guarantor of mortgage debt might be exactly what is called for given the
current housing crisis. While various proposals have been floated to expand the FHA to meet this role, it
has neither the infrastructure nor the expertise to address the broader mortgage market. A nationalized
Fannie Mae would be refocused to directly address the various problems of illiquidity, affordability, and
sustainability in the mortgage market. Without the need to satisfy a fiduciary duty to shareholders,
Fannie might finally be able to perform its affordable housing mission in a helpful and proactive manner.
Interesting that the Memo between the UST and NEC in the GWB Admin and DeMarco's Mission Statement are basically saying the same things except before 2008 it was a " failed social experiment" and now a structure where there is public loss and private gain.
DeMarco is testifying as President of the Housing Policy Council:
https://www.housingpolicycouncil.org/about
He is representing the policy of a mortgage industry trade group.
I would think this represents a material change in the political landscape. Sort of like the change in the position of David Stevens who was an BO Admin member and former CEO of the MBA?
The House GOP has a choice - push for Exit or allow the JB Admin to do what it wants. They have industry advocates pushing for Exit to give them political cover to retain their power of the purse
Thanks Vancmike - the record needs to be set straight especially now. The House GOP needs to know that the UST and NEC of the GWB Admin worked together to Nationalize the GSEs and used the evolving financial crisis arguably created by the GWB Admin to pass HERA and put the GSEs in Conservatorship. The plan was set six months before Sept 2008 and two months before the GSEs raised billions from unsuspecting public investors in newly issued JPS
March 8 2008 Memo from NEC to UST:
https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-docs/2008-03-08_Treasury_Email_from_Hason_Thomas_to_Robert_Steel_Re_Source_document_for_Barrons_article_on_FNM.pdf
WOW! This has to be really good for pushing for an exit. The GOP has to know they need to act to end Conservatorship - if De Marco is saying it then it would seem we have crossed the political Rubicon.
Thanks Navy!
Thanks Robert - interesting that the DEMS cited OFHEO in their CFPB Amicus
Calcutt was relisted for Conference on May 18th:
https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/22-714.html
No decision regarding Cert today
Good Luck and See You in Vegas!
When will the UST announce the cramdown? Will it be day 1 of Admin Action that you have been discussing?
Hi tutt1126 - where do the Administrative and Legislative reform list you posted come from?
Jared Bernstein nomination moves to full US Senate on a party line 12-11 vote.
https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/brown-advances-cea-hud-treasury-nominees
Thanks Rodney5 - Glenn had mentioned a Consent Decree with a Cramdown which are both problematic and that is why I mentioned it.
Hi Glenn,
When are we going to know the details of the cramdown? In the Consent Decree do you think? Maybe they will have to put that out for comment also?
As Glenn has previously posted - Berstein to be voted out of Committee tomorrow morning for Confirmation by Senate
https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/05/04/2023/executive-session