Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The Kool Aid retail bulls will be in denial for a while that their summer rally has fizzled, and the continued erosion in the price of oil, which is the only thing they have focused on for the last three-to-four weeks, will give them all the justification they need to try to keep pushing it higher, at least until after Labor Day when the first string returns to the Street and makes a commitment one way or the other. With ST RSIs in the 80's, yesterday was simply a long overdue relief of OB pressure.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
The simple answer is that the price of goods and services decrease, but so do wages and income, so while things are cheaper, the common man cannot afford them even at the lower prices, so less is produced, people get fired, etc., etc., hence the spiral downward into depression.
Nope, I am with you, -4 NQ for -36 pts each from the open, and continuing to hold -2 for another -6 each...
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
It seems someone forgot to tell the NDX...
The NDX was the odd man out today, getting up to spitting distance of recent highs (Qs ~ 48.10) before settling back down within a couple of pennies of the open. Not exactly a paint drying sort of day, but the net result was the same.
Poker - Do you think today's little stunt was the bulls' last hurrah, or does hope die hard with this bunch?
Hmmm, more like a one meter springboard, but it ain't over yet...
BBs getting pretty tight. Could we have the makings of an Acapulco???
New subscription terms on C2...
TMG II offers a performance guarantee: you pay only for each profitable trade we recommend. The cost is $15 per profitable trade. Here's how this works. Collective2 independently verifies each trading signal sent to subscribers. We compare these trading signals with real-life market prices. When a system closes out a trade, we evaluate whether the trade was profitable or not, based on the real-time prices that were available to you at the time the trading advice was emailed. If we calculate that a trade was not profitable, you pay nothing. If we calculate a trade should have been profitable if you executed it (regardless of whether you actually put in the order or were filled at your own broker) then we charge the $15 per trade fee. You can cancel your subscription at any time.
Well, for a while at least. Profit Stop hit at NDX 1805.96.
Meredith Whitney, Exec Dir of Equity Research at Oppenheimer, was a guest on CNBC this AM, and she painted a pretty gloomy picture that the financial crisis is *far* from over, and there will be more big write downs and bank failures to come. She even received death threats back in the Fall based on her CitiGroup analysis, which of course was right on. Perhaps the market was listening.
We're up .7% (1X) since the open...
We have to keep a few secrets...
I post here because it is *supposed* to be a board where mutual respect is observed *and* enforced, and I would only offer that it should apply equally to everyone. If you habitually don't like what someone has to say or the way they say it, that's what the "ignore" feature is for...
Well, *that* was impressive. It is a lot further to 1327 now...
Very bad indeed. One would expect that to put some pressure on the Dow, and may explain why the DJX P/C was so elevated yesterday, but the market indices have been somewhat divergent the last few days, so it may not bleed over to the others. Jobs report was equivocal, but a .2% uptick in the overall unemployment rate was the most troublesome. ISM numbers out mid-morning.
I don't think we will make it to 1327...
Yeah, just about a 50% retrace of the AM ramp job, but it sure took its time to roll over, just after briefly retouching HOD.
Shazam! *Never* underestimate the bulls...
Unless the diehard bulls jump in with both feet at the open and turn this around, it could get really ugly before the day is over.
Perhaps, but probably not today. We shall see...
Poker - In TMG/Merlin, we only drive with our low beams on. Is this the beginning of the long awaited decent into the abyss???
Price reduction!!!
To get in line with the formidable competition, TMG price on C2 and the TMG site has been reduced to $65/mo, effective immediately. If you are a never before subscriber, on the TMG site you will also have a 30 day money back guarantee, and for *all* subs, a performance guarantee will apply, i.e. if the system is not profitable in a calendar month per the official trades list (not your individual trades), your next month is free.
In comparing systems, take care not to compare apples and oranges. In evaluating performance, please keep in mind that the TMG system trades at ~ *1X*, e.g. the current ~ 75% annual return on C2 would be ~ 206% if traded at 2X, but at comparably increased risk of drawdown.
Previously banned members (5) need not apply.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
Back in Short NQ@1835 on the persistent Short signal for a nice 16 pt bonus into the close...
We look to be consolidating at this level, with the *appearance* of preparation for a move higher, but there are clouds on the horizon. P/C ratios are at net -3, which says that many professional traders are not buying that all the worry is suddenly over. Earnings so far have been relatively good, but even with the recent pullback, oil at $125/bbl is still not cheap and the effect is just beginning to be felt fully throughout the rest of the economy. Even Amazon with their good numbers cautioned that shipping costs were going to put a strain on the bottom line going forward.
I am out and flat on the day after a 25 pt NQ gain.
Poker - Took profits on 2 NQ on the way up, but was not quite quick enough with my entry to dump the last one at 1870. Now back to +2 at 1830. My guess is that we will end the day about half way between here and HOD. The market went just a little too far too fast.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
Well, that really sucked, unless you were nimble enough to dump your Longs near the top.
Poker - Nice. Lots of room at this trough...
Now *that* was a Wiley Coyote Acme rocket shot, and it may not be over yet.
Bob - Thanks for the review. We also feel that the enhancements made over the last several months have made Merlin more stable and robust. We have always maintained that Merlin is an invaluable tool for the astute trader, but that the blind approach also works for those without the time or inclination for more active trading strategies. The official Merlin as traded on C2 at slightly more than 1X is up 25.2% over the last three months.
Poker - Yes, a nice ride finally for those with the necessary patience and discipline. Between our Short exit and Long entry on the big AH drop yesterday, we were up 3.69% (1X) for the day, and almost 16% for the month. However, the big question is, will there be carryover? Our signal is somewhat equivocal.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
Tentative so far, and definitely not a Wiley Coyote Acme rocket shot, but up nonetheless, so we'll take it. Need to get some good, healthy Short covering underway.
I predict that it will either break up or down...
Well, I will believe it when I see it. However, my Hope indicator is pointing up today.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
Nope, that wasn't it. Just gave it all back in the last 15 min.
A paint drying day so far, but the herd finally seems to be stirring a bit...
I think the expected pullback is already baked in AH. Go Long for tomorrow...
Poker, yes, I noticed, but we try nonetheless. I agree that Mon will see a little more down before our proprietary MACD Slope, which has been in the process of bottoming (becoming less negative) has a zero crossing, but then, we are set up perfectly for a nice little run to the upside.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
Poker - Except that this is OE Fri and all sorts of weird things can and do happen. If you take the absolute value of the difference between the sum all the outstanding Calls at or below each strike price for the Qs (i.e. in the money) and the sum of all the outstanding Puts at or above each strike price, that number reaches a significant minimum at a strike price of 46 by about *a factor of 10*. Unless the option sellers have hedged their positions with other trades, there is a strong likelihood of a late push to the mid-45s or so, and 46 is not inconceivable.
Nirv - It is entirely possible for the herd to stampede right off a cliff. Witness all those who bought near the top of this PM's runup. I count a 35 pt drop AH on the NQs.
Kind regards,
-CAPT J
"What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail?"
Crude down 3 bucks is giving the herd a much needed shot of adrenaline.