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Not after the capital rule he saw. He knows Commons are gonna get shafted and he ran for the hills.
Who wants to be the CEO of a company that destroys 99% of the value for Commons?
Hugh Frater apparently isn't concerned, at least we haven't been informed of it yet.
But it wouldn't surprise me if both GSE CEOs resign prior to the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan being announced.
He likely wasn't happy with the outcome for Commons and didn't want to be CEO of a company that's about to screw all of their Common holders.
Brickman didn't want to be CEO when Commons get crushed. He feared the potential lawsuits against him directly.
Having that hang over him would've been too stressful. It's easier to let Calabria take the blame for that.
I'm sure there are more to come.
Not a good sign, especially for Commons.
No Bueno Amigos
It'll take a few years to get there.
Certainly possible for Commons to continue to grind higher.
Just look at Citi! It kept grinding, slowly but surely.
And those Commons made out like bandits with their ~150% gains.
Big Pay Day coming!!
Good luck to you! Good luck to Commons!
$4-6 is the end game. $7 is possible due to the irrational exuberance that is prevalent in FNMA.
There are a lot of disgruntled Jr. Preferreds that don't want to be associated with the bottom of the capital structure.
Expect much better buying opportunities in Commons after the Conversion commences.
Just be sure to Sell the Pop, because FNMA will Drop
Have you seen the JPS lately? Buyers lined up for miles.
I'd be more worried about the bottom falling out from Commons and seeing a sharp 25% drop.
JPS are the bees knees. Everyone wants them.
Heck, they're being discussed more than Commons on the FNMA board. LMAO!!
False. JPS have to rally the troops.
Once the Conversion occurs, we'll all be in the same boat. Most of the JPS holders will then have significantly more Common shares and even more Voting Power!
It'd probably be best to just eliminate all of the existing Commons so us JPS get even more ownership in the end. But that's not likely to occur unless the Admin panics and does the Sr. Preferred Cramdown Plan.
So you think Commons drop by 75% or more in that same time frame?
That would be devastating.
I expect anyone that buys JPS now will still outperform anyone that buys Commons today.
How's that?
Not with Ackman, I don't need to Hedge my crappy Gamble on Commons with Jr. Preferreds since I'm 100% JPS.
100% with Paulson since he's also 100% JPS and is expecting Redemption or Conversion at Par.
Don't expect a trading halt ...
I wouldn't expect a trading halt on the OTC.
FNMA has been through a lot of volatility over the last decade and it was never halted once.
Any halt for FNMA would likely mean it's heading to the Gray Sheets, where it will die.
Odds are any announcements would come on a Friday after market close.
All of this talk about JPS is suspicious.
Has everyone rotated from Commons to Jr. Preferreds now?
Compare the 5-year chart of FNMAS to FNMA.
Oh wait, they can't be compared because Jr. Preferreds blow Commons out of the water in every time frame dating back to the Conservatorship.
LOL! $0.03-$0.04 is considered a Pop these days.
I hope they don't end up increasing the required capital rather than reducing it.
That would be a double whammy for Commons, which are already reeling from the first capital rule proposal.
Then again, Sheila Bair will be head of the Board of Directors soon and she seems to think Calabria's capital rule is too low.
So maybe they'll end up increasing it after all.
Sell the Pop, FNMA Always Drops
Nope, still have the gap just under $1.70.
That has to fill before FNMA can even attempt to regain $2.05 resistance/support.
Were those quotes before or after she dismissed the Washington Federal case? Remember, that was the most important one since it challenged the entire Conservatorship.
FNMA's 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MA is pointing down.
This signals more bearishness ahead.
No Bueno Amigos
Entertainment on Red FNMA days is definitely needed.
Us Average Joes need something positive to dream about, even when reality is crashing down around us.
Can we sticky this?
It will be easier to compare the FNMA Facts versus FNMA Fantasy in retrospect.
Assuage also means Satisfy. Which is something that will need to be done to Jr. Preferreds for Commons to be worth much of anything
I imagine we need to file more lawsuits.
He's going to do a lot for JPS. Commons are another story.
Commons are likely to get shafted, but thankfully everyone knew that already.
Although, if you bought around these prices you'll probably still do okay.
But if you bought FNMA at $3.50+ ... well, you're not gonna make much and you're probably gonna have a hard time accepting that
Expect the same for HERA. Scalpel, not BOOM.
FNMA back to its usual color -- RED.
The Market disagrees with your statement based on the way it's valuing Jr. Preferreds significantly higher (over 4.5:1) than Commons.
I imagine the Conversion Offer will come in around 8-10 Commons for each $25 JPS and 16-20 Commons for each $50 JPS.
Mongo says the good times are ahead, but mostly for Jr. Preferreds!
Excellent! I have about 20 also.
It'll be fun to reply to all of those old FNMA Fantasies with updated FNMA Facts
Can we make it a fair comparison at least?
Considering the significant out-performance of JPS versus Commons for the last several years, I feel some of those gains need to be accounted for.
If JPS jump 100% a few days before IPO and you use the IPO date as a comparison, then that's not practical.
Maybe we should use the 3rd Amendment as the date we start counting gains from?
I'll make it easy, here's the recap:
1) Commons will be in the $3-6 range at the time of IPO. This will need to be adjusted for the upcoming Reverse Split. Commons could end up being significantly lower (sub-$0.75) in the event of a Sr. Preferred Cramdown scenario.
2) Jr. Preferreds will either have their Dividends restored by Q1 of '22 or they will be offered a generous Conversion to Commons tender.
That's my summary. Seems pretty straight forward.
It doesn't account for FNMA Fantasy including:
1) Warrants forgiven or re-purchased.
2) Super Secret Escrow Fund with NWS money to be used for GSE Recap.
3) IPOing at anything over $5 (adjusted for Reverse Split)
4) Any other Common Nonsense that permeates the online forums.
Nope. Settlement and/or finalization of SPS Cramdown before Jan 20th.
Lamberth is just another reassurance that JPS can fall back on assuming both of the above fail to occur.
Commons cannot benefit from Lamberth whatsoever.
Commons' Clock runs out much sooner than JPS.
Agreed! But what's dreaming? If Commons are worth anything, JPS are worth Par.
Any scenario where Commons are worth anything, means the GSEs need to be recapitalized.
Recapitalized GSE's equals Dividends for JPS.