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Here is a little gift for you guys trading EUR/USD.
Read and reread the articles on page 8 and 12. The knowledge you can gain from these 2 artilcles is unbelievable.
The authors did a really good job.
I really like this part :
"The $1.30 line in the sand
It’s no secret European finance ministers don’t want to see the
euro/dollar push above $1.30. Concerns regarding export
competitiveness with a euro/dollar above $1.30 have kept European finance ministers busy “jawboning” the currency down from that level. However, it is not just the Europeans who seek to keep the U.S. dollar within recent ranges. “Various central banks have been actively selling euros above $1.28 and buying euros around $1.24 to 1.25,” Dolan says. IFR’s Coleman says the euro/dollar stability reflects a structural change. China and other Asian central banks have a vested interest in U.S. dollar stability. “If they are going to be long a trillion dollars, they’d rather not see it appreciate or depreciate rapidly,” he says. Chinese reserves of U.S. dollars totaled around $769 billion as of the end of September, but speculation is rampant that it will quickly hit the $1 trillion mark.
http://www.currencytradermag.com/bem684.htm
I can completely understand where the iranians are coming from. I just finished seeing Iraq for sale- the war profiteers http://iraqforsale.org/
The documentary is basically about the damage that all the contract companies have done to the american reputation of goodwill.
Bush was in a hurry to fill the positions for the war and hired any joe blow in america! The bush administration really REALLY REALLY messed up the whole iraq situation by disrespecting all the is arabia.
I am siding with the muslim countries on this one. They have every right to act as they are doing.
Knowing too much and over complication is not good either. The thing I find hardest is keeping it simple. I know too fracking much and put doubts in my mind.
The hardest part of mastering trading is the psychology part ... hands down.
I am going to see a shrink!
UP
The USD should finally get some releif and I can in turn cut down on the ulcer medication. (ie vodka orange juice)
This article says it all.
I really appreciate the service dailyfx.com gives sometimes.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Dollar_Bear_Run_Stalls_1162386113431.h...
Do you guys think the dollar will strengthen now at these critical levels?
GBP breakout?
This smells like a George Soros like stunt in the making.
So the Swiss government is intervening and trying to prevent their currency from falling. Remember how the GBP fell when George Soros shorted it to death? Is the same thing happening now? Anybody have any information? Is a major player shorting it?
FX NOW! USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Flows - SNB Hildebrand : up to mkt to monitor carry trade risks
Sunday, October 29, 2006 6:37:00 PM
* 29 Oct 06: 23:37(SGA) - FX NOW! USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Flows - SNB Hildebrand : up to mkt to monitor carry trade risks
Good to monitor SNB Philipp Hildebrand comments on CHF, and also JPY, CHF carry trades, coming after Swiss Finmin Hans-Rudolf Merz comments on CHF rise, could indicate Switzerland is watching CHF weakness and carry trades and may not want CHF to fall more. Not surprised to hear "large" Swiss or even SNB offers in EUR/CHF. Con't in SonntagZeitung interview, SNB Hildebrand says "Monetary policy normalisation in the form of interest rate tightening, in the midst of a still strong economic cycle, is continuing in Switzerland," He warned that it was up to investors to weigh risks of CHF, JPY carry trades in order to fund investments in higher-yielding assets. Hildebrand says "It is up to the market operators to evaluate the risks. Our responsibility is to remind everyone that we have a flexible FX regime and that the currency risk remains. Changes in FX rates are always possible."- Reuters.WL
* 29 Oct 06: 23:26(SGA) - FX NOW! USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Flows - SNB Hildebrand says CHF FX a "conundrum"; CHF to rise? (CB)
Some positive CHF comments from SNB Hildebrand, seen warning on FX and JPY, CHF carry trades, possibly signalling SNB does not like further CHF fall vs EUR. On fX, USD/CHF hit almost 1-m lows of 1.2469 on Fri, post US GDP, its lowest since Oct 4 1.2446, EUR/CHF could dip, now 1.5890-95. SNB board member Philipp Hildebrand, in interview with Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung, said the Swiss franc's development on FX markets was a "conundrum", while adding markets should not assume exchange rates would stay as stable as they had in recent years. Hildebrand said "Market operators should not believe that the foreign currency situation should always be as stable as it has been in the past 4 years, "The FX development of CHF is in a sense a conundrum, a riddle."Fundamental data for the franc are good." more next. WL
That cock sucker greenspan still does damage ...
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Deja_vu__Just_Like_the_1161898404148...
Euro and Swiss Franc – Even though he has left office for months now, when former Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks, the market still listens. At a conference sponsored by the Commercial Finance Association, Greenspan said that “We're beginning to see some move from the dollar to the Euro, both from the private sector ... also from monetary authorities and central banks." .....
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are so damn overbought and the USD is simply a pawn to make the indicators unwind a little.
Pretty fracking sad if you ask me.
There are limits to everything and I am shorting the EUR and averaging up until the fracker goes down. Having a biggish account really helps though.
The more money you have the more you make.
I never take money out of the account. Ideally you gotta have 20000 - 30000 to make some serious cash. Can you imagine you make 10 percent of 20000 a week?
That calculation brings a smile to my face. Sorry for the rambling ... had a little too much vodka-orange.
USD GDP tomorrow should be a surprise upwards and should give an opportunity to reset longs (EUR/USD - GBP/USD).
I agree but for now a correction is in order. The 4 hour is overbought.
I have been wondering why volatility in the forex market has dropped in the past several months and came across these excellent articles about central banks.
USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF should become the new carry trade if the BOJ stirs up trouble.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQmb0fAqH6Hs&refer=home
http://www.forexblog.org/central_banks/index.html
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/CentralBanks.asp
I envy you in a way! I have an engineering background and I often wish I had gone into international finance. There is so much to learn about the movement of currencies in the world.
One big question I still have is why the almost perfect inverse correclation between EUR/USD and USD/CHF?
I send numerous emails pertaining to that subject and did not receive a response. Are they sleeping with the enemy? Odds are they are.
Hey! Took the rest of the day off to trade the FOMC. Using the hedging technique with the 3 pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and my lifesaver USD/CHF. The EUR may go to 1.2600-1.2620 but the path of least resistance is DOWN! The GBP may go to 1.8820 but then DOWN. I bought all the pairs (more USD/CHF). This technique has worked well for me the past 2 weeks.
Hope you make alot of money!
Ultimatepick
So the japanese car makers lose profits but make money from their hedge by selling USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. Everybody is a trader! LOL!
If they think that 115 and 145 are the levels then no wonder the crosses are stalling at 120 and 151.
Cheers!
FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - Honda "revs" USD/JPY, EUR/JPY assumed rates up to 115/145
Wednesday, October 25, 2006 2:23:00 AM
* 25 Oct 06: 07:23(SGA) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - Honda "revs" USD/JPY, EUR/JPY assumed rates up to 115/145
Honda Motor "drives" its USD/JPY, EUR/JPY rate for FY06/07 higher to 115 from 112 and 145 from 139. Honda revises its 2006/07 global car sales forecast to 3.70mln from 3.72mln as it reports a 4.3% fall in quarterly net profits of Y127.91bln (USD1.07bln) in Q3, with the slowdown in Japan and Asian sales offset by currency gains, seen at Y43.7bln (USD367mln). On, FX, will not be surprised to hear major Japanese carmakers still selling USD/JPY, EUR/JPY on rallies, as even the higher revised USD/JPY 115, EUR/JPY 145, are higher than the current spot levels of 119.20, EUR/JPY 149.85, and will not be surprised to hear more complaints from US carmakers that the "artificially weak" JPY that is benefiting Japanese carmakers, and putting pressure on MoF/BoJ to stop JPY fall.WL
Ataglance, how much you wanna bet that GBP is NOT raising interest rates! Look at the daily and the weekly charts of GBP/USD. This sucker has a one way ticket on a downtown train.
UK Oct manufacturing optimism balance -10 pct, lowest since Jan - CBI UPDATE
Tuesday, October 24, 2006 6:49:49 AM
LONDON (AFX) - The UK's manufacturing sector saw conditions deteriorate substantially during October despite lower prices, the country's leading business lobby group said today.
The Confederation of British Industry reported a dramatic slump in demand, both domestic and overseas, over the last few weeks.
'The unexpectedly strong recovery in manufacturing over the first half of the year has not been sustained and it looks as if we are entering a period of slightly more modest growth,' said the CBI's chief economic advisor Ian McCafferty.
'The slowdown in the US has clearly dampened export orders and domestic demand remains fragile,' he added.
In its monthly survey of the sector, the CBI said a net balance -20 pct of manufacturers polled said total order books were above normal. The latest figure is way down on the -5 pct recorded in September and marks the worst result since January's -28 pct.
Meanwhile, the export orders balance fell to -11 pct from -3 pct. October's result was the worst since April's -13 pct.
The CBI also said the expected volume of output balance fell to +9 pct from September's +14 pct. Again October's result was the worst since January's +1 pct and confounds market expectations of a more modest decline to +9 pct.
The survey included questions asked only on a quarterly basis and here things were not much better either.
The CBI said optimism regarding the business situation deteriorated over the last three months with the balance down at -10 pct from July's -6 pct. Analysts polled by AFX News had anticipated an improvement to +4 pct.
Optimism regarding export prospects fell to +1 pct from July's +5 pct.
It added that the volume of total new orders balance slipped to -5 pct in October from July's +1 pct, with the domestic orders balance down at -11 pct from -5 pct and the export order balance at -1 pct from +7 pct.
The volume of total new orders balance for the next three months slipped to +3 pct from July's +6 pct, with the domestic orders balance at zero, down from +5 pct, and the export orders balance down at +3 pct from +13 pct.
While the demand components deteriorated, the survey pointed ot higher prices, even though oil prices have fallen from their summer highs.
The survey found that 12 pct more firms polled saw average prices rising over the next three months, up from September's +8 pct.
The deterioration in the data, although slightly disappointing, is unlikely to prevent the Bank of England from hiking interest rates in November, said David Page, economist at Investec.
The data suggests that the path for interest rates beyond November is less clear, however. The central bank will be wary whether it can count of the manufacturing sector's contribution to overall GDP growth, he added.
'The purchasing managers survey and previous CBI surveys had been pointing at a decent manufacturing performance, now the rug has been pulled from under our feet,' said Page.
Everything is on hold till wednesday FOMC
You have to wonder why the JPY crosses jumped the way they did on Friday. I have a funny feeling that 120.00 will be retested this week.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
I asked you if you use 40000 real money.
With 40000 real money at 100 leverage you get 4 million virtual.
But how do you figure that you only risk 4000 bucks?
Stop loss?
BTW if you really did have that kind of money where you make 400 REAL bucks a pip why are you hanging around here dude?
And why the frack don`t you get an ecn? FXCM is for retail
I think you are confused ... you probably really mean 400$/pip vitual = 4 bucks a pip REAL.
Let me know.
400 bucks a pip? At 10$/pip for a 100000 lot you need to get 40 BIG lots to make 400/pip.
40 * 100000 = 4 million /100 leverage = 40000 dollars REAL MONEY
How could you only risk 4000?
Stop loss?
The article is too short ... need more LOL!
It will take me a week to read it thanks!
Very interesting!
Nice post!
So basically they (NK) are going to be backed into a corner.
That does not sound good.
Desperate people call for desparate measures.
Now I gotta rethink everything! Thanks man!
NK is run by mobsters. Give them a nice thick envelope and they will will back off! All they want is money! If they cross that fine line with the world then they will get nothing but an assasination/nuke in the face.
If they are willing to cross that line then fine ...
But they have been in power since the 1970's ... why should they break the trend now?
Why now?
They wont cause the world is gonna wimp out and pay them.
IT started!
Finally the unwinding of the JPY carry trades is at hand. There isn't gonna be another nuke test. NK is crazy but not that stupid! JPY will raise interest rates one more time this year. The S&P500 is too high for comfort and foreigners are gonna start booking profits. Get ready for a big correction.
Currently people are holding too many USD and are gonna start diversifying soon.
Look at Russia with their pruchase of JPY.
[21:11 USD/JPY: JPY Crosses Under Broad-based Selling Pressure] San Francisco, October 17. JPY crosses are under broad-based selling pressure in the wake of the news that the BOJ will monitor carry trades. EUR/JPY has dropped from 149.25
to 148.88 while GBP/JPY has fallen from 222.50 highs in NY to 222.00. AUD/JPY has fallen from 89.65 to 89.35 with NZD/JPY dropping from 79.00 to 78.70. CHF/JPY is down from 93.90 to 93.60 with USD/CAD dropping from 104.40 to 104.00.
All-in-all, expect volatility to increase overnight. Traders reported today that Japanese investors had begun to hedge their downside risk and this should pick up dramatically. Also noted today was buying of downside strikes on USD/JPY and
selling of topside strikes in the options market that will also add to the pressure on USD/JPY and JPY crosses. Stops are tipped on USD/JPY on a break of 118.40/50 with risk for a fall to 117.65. Record short JPY positions on the IMM will also add to downside momentum.
[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
Quit pumpin this stock dude! Enough already!
You sound like a broken record :-/
Yes that could be it but stock markets all around the world are going up. Maybe the US markets are going up proportionately faster.
PPI, CPI and Philadelphia Fed will shake things up this week.
BTW .... major earthquake in Hawaii.
Everybody is prodollar and in a very big way and for what? All this is artificial and get ready for a VERY VERY violent turn to the downside for the dollar. Could happen as early as this week.
Ya they do look a little scared but you would too if you had bullets wizzing above your head. I say USD/CAD is going down!
LOL!
And sticking with the war theme ....
How about them Canadians!
http://www.militaryvideos.net/videos.php?videonum=61
http://www.militaryvideos.net/videos.php?videonum=62
http://www.militaryvideos.net/videos.php?videonum=56
A trip to North Korea
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=82755
Very interesting photo documentary on how these people live.
It looks like they have NOTHING to lose ....
USD/JPY is goin up!!! it seems LOL!
USD/JPY Q4 Outlook
I found this article very interesting.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/jpy_news/USDJPY_Outlook_1160771819152.html
I have been shorting USD/JPY with limited success betting that the trend is about to reverse ... gonna stop doing that because I do not see JPY raising rates and USD lowering them any time soon. PLus with all the bullshit about North Korea ...Below, we can see that the market is very very long USD/JPY and i believe it will stay long for some time to come.
USD/JPY Positioning
Yen speculative short positions (USDJPY long) continue to make record highs. With Yen short positions so stretched, confidence in the bullish wave pattern is not as high as it would be if positioning was more neutral. Notice below that extreme speculative Yen short positioning (USDJPY long) has preceded major tops in USDJPY. Of course, Keynes famously said that “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” In other words, the speculative community could remain extremely short JPY for quite some time before a reversal occurs towards Yen strength.
It is amazing how the USD/JPY 120.00 and EUR/USD 1.2450 is being protected. Anybody know of any large no touch options out in the market and when/if they expire?
The stop hunters are on the prowl. Will they succeed? I frackin hope not for my sake!
Have a relaxing weekend everyone.
I will surely have a couple on YOU!
The US Dollar Index chart
What index chart do you guys use?
- Composite of the world's 6 major currencies to assign a single value to the US Dollar, available on eSignal with symbol $DXC ( NYBOT ($DXC)) http://new.quote.com/stocks/adv_chart.action?s=$DXC
- NYBOT http://spectrumcommodities.com/education/commodity/charts/dx.html (Notics the comment ....this pattern is nearly reverse that of the 30-year Treasury bond - INVERSE YIELD CURVE)
- $USD (INDX) http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p74871912038
There are many others but which one do you guys look at?
Thanks!!
Ultimatepick
EU to end nuclear talks with Iran - diplomat UPDATE
Friday, October 13, 2006 6:15:15 AM
BRUSSELS (AFX) - EU foreign ministers are to formally end negotiations with Tehran over Iran's nuclear ambitions at a meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday because of a 'lack of results', a European diplomat said.
The ministers are due to declare that 'negotiations with Iran have terminated because of a lack of results,' he said on condition of anonymity.
However, a draft of the meeting's conclusions dating from October 11 and seen by AFP does not include that sentence.
Other diplomats said that the most recent version was not as strongly worded and left the door open to further negotiations.
At the meeting in Luxembourg, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana is due to give an account of talks with Iran, which the major world powers have asked to end its uranium enrichment activities.
Solana acknowledged last week that talks had ground to a halt, sparking discussions about possible sanctions against Iran in the United Nations Security Council.
He also said that he planned no further meetings with Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani.
Looks like there is bad news on the way for the USD.
Hope the retail sales data tomorrow starts the dollar slide for next week!
NZD/USD what is it gonna be?
I see a mini-divergence on the RSI.
Comments anyone? I say down but what do I know LOL!
Go to Canada! USD/CAD will be at 1.1800 in no time LOL!